Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?

[Wycombewheeler]

Apologies. You may be correct.

 Email received this afternoon from ACP, a day later than others.

Either way, we've got our homologation numbers listed under our accounts on the ACP website for our SR Series, so patiently awaiting 10 June.

10th of June is the deadline, for registration, you can complete the process on the 27th of May.

Or do you mean waiting until 10th of June to see what other slots come up?

[LittleWheelsandBig]

I only got the email late yesterday, so I guess there were staggered mailings.

Do people think that anybody who hasn't already pre-registered for PBP will not be able to register now? Not an issue for me but perhaps this might affect others hoping to register after completing their SR.

[Wycombewheeler]

I only got the email late yesterday, so I guess there were staggered mailings.

Do people think that anybody who hasn't already pre-registered for PBP will not be able to register now? Not an issue for me but perhaps this might affect others hoping to register after completing their SR.

I think there will be a few places, but not many. So If I was hoping for one I would be on the website at noon on 10th June, or whatever other time they will make it available.

They have allowed 8400 pre registrations, and expect 8,000 to be converted to registrations. Their 400 drop out rate is probably conservative, so if 600 fail to turn pre-reg into reg I would expect 200 places to become available. I can't remember what the drop out rate was in 2019, but I suspect it was more than 5%

Pre reg price is very low so it's not an issue to be a bit speculative, but paying 250euro makes it all seem a more real so people may drop out when adding up costs of travel and accommodation if the whole thing is out of budget, not just because they fail with the qualifiers. After all the majority of pre registrations did a 400 BRM or longer last season so riding an SR series shouldn't be too onerous a task. (baring unfortunate season ending injuries). So I don't think we can attribute 2019 drop outs soley to people who could not complete the required SR.

Of course they might decide 7800 riders rather than 8,000 will make the event more comfortable for everyone, so  But at this point I would not give up hope personally.

[LateStarter]

2019 was 1500 dropout (fail to enter 3 qualifiers by mid June) out of 7600 pre-registered when that filled up on 10 April 2019, so almost 20%. Then about 1000 places for non pre-registered people with at least 3 qualifiers filled by the early July close. A few hundred more must have not done a 4th as the “final” fully registered tally was 6673 and a couple of hundred DNS.

Currently available 4 x 90h specials (F) and 73 x 84h specials (W) & 113 84h bicycle all  with no indication these are anything other than standard pre-registration spots.  The 73 available in Group W is a bit odd as there are only about 15 pre-registered 84h Specials

The French and by implication non- French quotas haven’t been mentioned by ACP for a while

[grams]

I’m not going to have 3 BRMs by the first cutoff. Anyone know what happens?

[LittleWheelsandBig]

I’m not going to have 3 BRMs by the first cutoff. Anyone know what happens?

If you don't have 3 qualifiers in the bag by 10 June, I think you have problems entering PBP.

[LateStarter]

I’m not going to have 3 BRMs by the first cutoff. Anyone know what happens?

You lose your selected start time on the 10th of June unless you have "initiated" the registration (needing 3 qualifiers), BUT remain as a pre-registered rider, when you get your 3 qualifiers you can "initiate" your registration (must be before 2nd July), when you get your 4th qualifier you can "finalise" / complete your registration. I don't know if you get to pick your start time (from those still available) at the initiation or finalisation stage, we might see on Saturday (27th) then we see the additional screens for registration. Registration "closes" on 2nd July and that's it!

I don't think I am going to make it either as too many complications have arisen with getting the time off, flights etc....

[grams]

Thanks for the comprehensive answer, LateStarter.

Thanks for the series of words, LWaB.

[czarop]

I’m not going to have 3 BRMs by the first cutoff. Anyone know what happens?

Me neither - thanks to missing a couple of key rides through illness I'm left with no way of getting my 3rd BRM number by June 10th. Just not enough free weekends!
With a bit of luck I'm still aiming to complete the SR (should have 3rd BRM number by mid June)... fingers crossed there are some slots available.

[Wycombewheeler]

I’m not going to have 3 BRMs by the first cutoff. Anyone know what happens?

You lose your selected start time on the 10th of June unless you have "initiated" the registration (needing 3 qualifiers), BUT remain as a pre-registered rider, when you get your 3 qualifiers you can "initiate" your registration (must be before 2nd July), when you get your 4th qualifier you can "finalise" / complete your registration. I don't know if you get to pick your start time (from those still available) at the initiation or finalisation stage, we might see on Saturday (27th) then we see the additional screens for registration. Registration "closes" on 2nd July and that's it!

I don't think I am going to make it either as too many complications have arisen with getting the time off, flights etc....

but doesn't that assume places are still available. On 10th of june pre registrations which have not been initiated will be lost. People who did not pre register but have the 3 qualifying brevets would now be allowed to register. 4 years ago, this was not a large number, as people did not anticipate many slots becoming available. Now with the knowledge that all is not lost there may be more optimists riding their brevets.

Assuming all spaces are not taken up by the time anyone that lost their pre registration gets to 3 BRMs they would then have a chance to register.

[Lightning Phil]

It says this, in the email we were sent

“ Please note that you will lose your reserved place if you have not started your registration before June 10, 12:00 (Paris time).”

[quixoticgeek]

Dunno if it's any use, but there's a 600 from Amsterdam on the 3rd.

J

[Wycombewheeler]

on the 3rd of June there are 600s in Alfreton, Carlisle and Stevenage sill taking entries

[LateStarter]

but doesn't that assume places are still available. On 10th of june pre registrations which have not been initiated will be lost. People who did not pre register but have the 3 qualifying brevets would now be allowed to register. 4 years ago, this was not a large number, as people did not anticipate many slots becoming available. Now with the knowledge that all is not lost there may be more optimists riding their brevets.

Assuming all spaces are not taken up by the time anyone that lost their pre registration gets to 3 BRMs they would then have a chance to register.

Indeed but I have postulated previously that we have reached “peak brevet”

There are still (as at a few minutes ago) 70 84h bicycle places available plus 4 90h specials & 73 84h specials. The specials have not moved for weeks and the bicycle places decline by only a few each day. Also there has been no 2022 qualifier requirement since 25 March so anyone with half an inclination will have pre-registered I would have thought?

Given the June deadline in 2019 caused a 1500 dropout from 7600 pre-registered there is a good chance the 10 June dropout will be larger from the approximately 8500 pre-registered this time especially as it includes many with no 2022 BRM ride.

So I reckon there is a good chance of there being still  places available into late June with a worst case of them being 84h as many 84h pre-registrations will move to available 90h places and the very worst case being you will have to take a “special” place and buy a bent or argue that you or your bike are otherwise special.

Given the numbers now I will be very surprised if anywhere near 8000 start, likely low 7000s perhaps. Quite a bit sorry I don’t think I will be there.

PS I notice the “Pre-Register” button has gone from the screen with the available numbers per time limit?

Les préinscriptions sont clôturées (Pre-registrations are closed)

[czarop]

on the 3rd of June there are 600s in Alfreton, Carlisle and Stevenage sill taking entries

Unlikely to return BRM numbers by June 10th though?

[quixoticgeek]

on the 3rd of June there are 600s in Alfreton, Carlisle and Stevenage sill taking entries

Unlikely to return BRM numbers by June 10th though?

We're usually pretty quick on the Amsterdam one. Dunno what auk adds as an overhead.

J

[Frank9755]

Mine have been within that timescale this year, just a couple of days after the event.
It does depend on the organiser but I expect they will have that deadline in mind.

[Lightning Phil]

on the 3rd of June there are 600s in Alfreton, Carlisle and Stevenage sill taking entries

Unlikely to return BRM numbers by June 10th though?

I am the organiser of one of those 600s, and provided I complete my post event admin quickly, and get the cards off as quick as possible; they will be processed and brevet numbers allocated in the evening during the week leading up to Sat 10th. I know this, as I asked, as for some riders on my 600, it will be their third qualifying brevet. I usually try and do as much admin as I can whilst at the finish, then complete it on the Monday after the event, thus cards will be off to audax UK central on Mon 5th June.

Thus the numbers should be available online to commence PBP registration , but the cards coming back will not be so rapid.

[LateStarter]

More places available now including 150 90h , all start times, but only if you have at least 3 qualifiers and can register

[iroiromono]

A bit confused. Completed registration yesterday at noon and paid payment. Then last night got email saying entry had been cancelled as payment not received within 3 days. Anyone else experiencing this?

Votre inscription PBP-***** vient d'être passée à l'état: Cancelled
Raison: Non payé depuis plus de 3 jours
Amount remaining to be paid: 192€
Etat à 23:55
Si vous avez déjà payé, cela peut prendre un peu de temps pour se mettre à jour

[Graeme]

I just got the same thing

Logging on, my registration is completely gone.
 

[LateStarter]

Their system seems to be having “issues”, in the last half hour available places went from 30 80h,99 90h,169 84h to 0, 6, 145 and just now it seems to be off line

[Graeme]

I'm not sure who to contact. My whole registration is missing. Hopefully a computer issue that'll be able to be reversed... but if I need to contact someone I don't know who to write to.

[LateStarter]

I'm not sure who to contact. My whole registration is missing. Hopefully a computer issue that'll be able to be reversed... but if I need to contact someone I don't know who to write to.

Two months ago I had a question about my pre-registration and got a rapid and helpful reply from inscription@paris-brest-paris.org but I would give them an hour or three to sort out their problem, worst case is everything is trashed and everyone who turns up in August can ride       

[The Bonk]

I registered and got a confirmation email to say I'd paid. But my registration on the site is now missing, too.