I feel that m'fellow members attempts to answer your question may have complicated things somewhat and as they are highly subjective, whilst fascinating (no doubt), are completely irrelevant.
Did you ask "Friend, tell me. How hard did you find PBP?"
No, I think not.
In fact you only want to know how hard you will find it and are not in the least bit interested in your fellow wheelman's trials and tribulations.
Well, as it happens, your luck is in.
I have a simple but trusty mathematic equation that relates to you and your capabilities alone and not some slack jawed jelly bellied cafe loving lothario who is too lazy to race yet basks in the glory of being able to balance on two wheels for periods long enough to cook an egg on a relatively mild August day.
So here we go.
Firstly, you have to complete a 200k on a particularly cold and dreary day after at least 6 weeks off the bike, preferably in the months of December, January or February. It doesn't have to be a hilly event, just a 200k on which you feel that the joy has gone and the world might be a better place if you stayed in bed.
Done that?
Good.
Now I need you to measure this ride's 'hardness' of a scale of 1 to 10. If it helps, imagine that a 1 is the discomfort you feel on the roof of your mouth after eating a bag of Everton mints whereas a 10 is the discomfort you feel after being caught by your mother in law in the midst of trying to perform an act of oral self-love in her potting shed, at the reception after her son's funeral.
Got that?
Good.
So let us walk through a worked example:
For the purpose of this exercise, we'll say your first 200 scored a score of 7 (equates to running for the bus with a cheese grater firmly pushed down the front of your pants). Now you you need to apply the multipliers related to a tired and tested training regime.
Your next step comes with completing another 200 which on paper, is as hilly as the last. The key performance indicator here is your finish time. For every half hour you finish earlier or later than your first ride then subract or add 1 from your first time ride hardness score. Therefore, if you finished 1 hour quicker, your hardness score would now be 5.
Repeat this for one more 200k ride. If you have a modest improvement or took the same time, subtract 1 and for each half hour quicker subtract 1.5.
For the progression to a 300, take your final score and multiply it by 1.46. If you are back up to 10 or even over 10, then perhaps PBP is not for you. Perhaps you are not taking this seriously enough. Do you have a sedentary lifestyle where you watch other people performing manual tasks whilst you peer down at them from some soulless penthouse?
Assuming you are crept in under the '10 threshold', you should lick the adhesive strip of your 300 entry C5 envelope with alacrity but be aware; not all 300s are created equally. What you need to understand is that 300k organisers relish in your suffering. For them, the cheese grater down the front of their pants is not just for other people but is indeed, a way of life. I will refrain from naming names but can tell you this: 300k events that do not show any ascent or AAA are the most suspect and are merely there to snare the unsuspecting. Rides that are AAA graded are unashamedly harder but even within this clench of organisers, there is competition for being the most sadistic.
For this reason, your score calculator on completing a 300k will be influenced not on finish time but on the stories you can bore family and friends with afterwards. If there are are no stories and you found the whole affair rather dull, then subtract 0.5 points from your running total. But, for every amusing anecdote of heroism, stupidity, human endeavour or frailty, you can take with you to the grave, subtract 1 point.
With me so far? Excellent, nearly there but for the 400 multiply your running score by 1.7.
400s are, quite simply, the instrument of the SANTA. Sorry, the SATAN. Only a fool considers a 400 as two 200s. For the majority of us, a 400 is an exercise in sleep deprivation that sounds facinating but in reality is not really much fun at all. There are those who will say "Oh I love 400s, they are really great and a lot of my friends think so too." Be wary of these people. If they have indeed ever done a 400 they are likely to have no grip on reality and no friends. For this reason, the calculator on a 400 is not based on time or stories but on how much you would want to do three of them in a row. If, after finishing with a flourish, you are wet and panting for another, give yourself 5 points off the score, buy a Menu Master and go back to your lonely flat with only a full Bounty kitchen roll and Look Good Naked for company. If, on the other hand, you are a broken Randonneur, vowing to never trust the word of Sir Phil Chadwick again, award yourself 3 points to deduct from your running score.
For the next step up to a 600, you will need to multiply your running score by 1.6 and then check whether you have you crossed the boundary of 10. Have you? If so, then all is not lost as completing 400s are no benchmark of being able to complete PBP. The best option here, in fact the only option here is to ignore your running score and enter any 600 that takes your fancy with the blind optimism that only a middle-aged woman bending over, wearing white slacks, loading her shopping into the hatch back whilst wearing Tena Lady breifettes can exhibit.
Now a 600 is a delight to behold and is the defining point where you may realise that you too can fly on the wings of Buzzards and that perhaps, just perhaps, you are that sort of person who has a tendency to this sort of thing. They tend to be social events and you will see many other people there who, like yourself, are as unlikely candidates for PBP as it is possible to find. But if you start with high hopes, only to struggle over the finish line full of self doubt, then the science can help. For any finish time over 39 hours, add 3 to your running score but subtract 1 for every hour spent sleeping in either a B&B, under a beer garden table, standing upright in a telephone box or draped over a gate. Obviously, failure to complete a 600 should be considered as something of a setback but if you finished in 36 hours or under, with or without sleep then count yourself as ready to go to Paris.
We are not over with the scoring just because we have qualified with a BRM SR series under our perineums.
If you have completed a series yet are at the point where you partner/spouse is sick with you being off every weekend and is threatening to leave then you must add 2 points to your score in the PBP year and a massive 4 points if this happens in any year previous to PBP. If you are single, subtract 2 points and count yourself lucky but spare a thought to the turmoil that those attractive or personable enough to find a mate are going through.
Now, finally we can examine your score.
Anything less than a score of 5 then you can count yourself as being made of the right stuff to take part in PBP. Why not up the ante and have the extra fun of entering the 84 hour group? As a bonus, you get to enjoy the experience of demoralising struggling 90 hour riders by zooming past them with a cheery grunt. Or so I have heard.
With a score of 5 to 7 you are still a likely candidate but success won’t come easy. You will need to watch the time spent at controls and keep moving to the end.
With a score of 8 to 10 you are going to finish but on a wing and a prayer. Never mind though, the streets will be lined by encouraging Frenchies all helping you on your way, walking beside you and offering unintelligible words of wisdom as you teeter ever onwards away from the yawning chasm of failure to the glory that is the Arrivee.
Hope this helps.
H
