Author Topic: Tour predictions thread  (Read 5995 times)

citoyen

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Re: Tour predictions thread
« Reply #75 on: June 23, 2011, 01:39:38 pm »
(But I reckon his face is most punchable when he's looking happy.)


David Martin

  • Thats Dr Oi You thankyouverymuch
Re: Tour predictions thread
« Reply #76 on: June 23, 2011, 02:31:29 pm »
(But I reckon his face is most punchable when he's looking happy.)


Bingo!
"By creating we think. By living we learn" - Patrick Geddes

Re: Tour predictions thread
« Reply #77 on: June 23, 2011, 10:10:32 pm »
Is Adamski riding the Tour then?   ;D

Seriously, I think Wiggo is in with a podium chance.  

The real bummer would be if he came second to Contador, therfore winning the Tour, but unable to celebrate on the Champs D'Elysees and only crowned some months after the event.  

Second only to the even bummier bummer if he got pinged for doping.

gonzo

Re: Tour predictions thread
« Reply #78 on: June 24, 2011, 06:54:03 pm »
Cav may not be in top form, but who's really able to consistently challenge in the sprints? Hushovd doesn't appear to be in great form and no one else is has really shown dominance as far as I can tell?

I've not seen any details of the route this year. Could someone give me a quick summary? #TTs? # flat sprinters stages? Many big mountain finishes?

Re: Tour predictions thread
« Reply #79 on: June 24, 2011, 08:13:11 pm »
Cav may not be in top form, but who's really able to consistently challenge in the sprints? Hushovd doesn't appear to be in great form and no one else is has really shown dominance as far as I can tell?

I've not seen any details of the route this year. Could someone give me a quick summary? #TTs? # flat sprinters stages? Many big mountain finishes?

The Cyclingnews guide, with a resume of each stage,  is here:

Tour De France 2011: Stages & Route Maps | Cyclingnews.com

Snakehips

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Re: Tour predictions thread
« Reply #80 on: June 24, 2011, 08:32:06 pm »
Cav may not be in top form,

There was a piece on Bikeradar a couple of days ago in which he apparently claimed to be on his best form for two years.

Of course you can't necessarily believe all you read !
Mustn't grumble in the circumstances .

David Martin

  • Thats Dr Oi You thankyouverymuch
Re: Tour predictions thread
« Reply #81 on: June 24, 2011, 08:36:33 pm »
Cav may not be in top form, but who's really able to consistently challenge in the sprints? Hushovd doesn't appear to be in great form and no one else is has really shown dominance as far as I can tell?

I've not seen any details of the route this year. Could someone give me a quick summary? #TTs? # flat sprinters stages? Many big mountain finishes?

The Cyclingnews guide, with a resume of each stage,  is here:

Tour De France 2011: Stages & Route Maps | Cyclingnews.com

Just looked at the last two mountain stages.  :o :o This will be an epic tour.
"By creating we think. By living we learn" - Patrick Geddes

Re: Tour predictions thread
« Reply #82 on: June 24, 2011, 08:58:17 pm »
The RealPeloton podcast (Boulting and Rendell) this week was just an unedited recording of the press conference Cav gave in London. He sounded even more confident than he usually does and is in a lot better shape than last year.

I've not seen any details of the route this year. Could someone give me a quick summary? #TTs? # flat sprinters stages? Many big mountain finishes?

According to Cav : 6 probable bunch sprint finishes, but only 2 'pan flat'.  The other 4 have varying degrees of non-flatness in the last few kilometres but nothing to worry him too much.  He probably wasn't counting Stage 4 as a sprint stage because he said Gilbert was a nailed on cert for that one.

No prologue this year but a TTT as Stage 2.  (Cav says that, unlike Garmin and Sky, HTC do no specific TTT training.  All it needs is for him to 'take control'. In his 5 grand tour TTTs, HTC have won the 3 that Cav has taken control of, and not the two that he hasn't!) The long (40km) TT, the penultimate stage, is in Grenoble and is exactly the same as the Dauphine one this year where Wiggins rode well to come second to Tony Martin.

Two mountain top finishes in the Pyrenees and two in the Alps.  And a lot of other mountains as well (100th anniversary of the the Tour visiting the Alps this year).

gonzo

Re: Tour predictions thread
« Reply #83 on: June 24, 2011, 09:25:16 pm »
Ta for the info nuncio, gives me confidence in my fantasy tour team!

David Martin

  • Thats Dr Oi You thankyouverymuch
Re: Tour predictions thread
« Reply #84 on: June 24, 2011, 10:00:05 pm »
What is the chance of Cav being the first brit to wear all three GT leaders jerseys (just missing a yellow) and all three GT sprint jerseys?
"By creating we think. By living we learn" - Patrick Geddes

citoyen

  • Cat 6 Racer
Re: Tour predictions thread
« Reply #85 on: June 24, 2011, 10:21:19 pm »
Hell yeah. Cav in yellow after stage 2 this year has to be regarded as a very real possibility. How exciting is that?

d.

Re: Tour predictions thread
« Reply #86 on: June 24, 2011, 10:43:14 pm »
I hope that I can recapture the excitement,
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Mr Larrington

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Re: Tour predictions thread
« Reply #87 on: June 29, 2011, 11:34:53 am »
The waving of a placard advertising <a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/bYEPjBzh0Bg&rel=1" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/v/bYEPjBzh0Bg&rel=1</a> will be a daily feature.
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CrazyEnglishTriathlete

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Re: Tour predictions thread
« Reply #88 on: June 30, 2011, 01:44:06 pm »
Given that you get half points for the one intermediate sprint - just watch HTC or some other sprinters team  chase down the break half way through the first stage (and any other stage that has a steep hill at the finish but flat to the halfway point)

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Re: Tour predictions thread
« Reply #89 on: June 30, 2011, 03:16:33 pm »
That change may also affect the dynamic of the race in respect of breakaways on the flatter stages: they’re less likely to get enough of a lead which can’t be chased down by the intermediate sprint points. Unless there are days when the green-jersey-competing teams call a truce, we’re unlikely to see a small group gaining a large lead a la Chiapucci, Voeckler and, er, can’t think of any others.  Also, there’s a chance that this will favour those teams which are hoping for sprint stage wins but have no ambitions towards the green jersey: they can take it easy while Lampre, Garmin-Cervelo and HTC are chasing down breaks and forming trains for the intermediates.

Re: Tour predictions thread
« Reply #90 on: June 30, 2011, 05:09:21 pm »
I think it was in that press conference that Cavendish implied HTC wouln't be chasing down breaks for the intermediate points because winning the green jersey was all about minimising your losses to your rivals - ie there'd be no point them using up energy just to get 1 or 2 points more than a rider that sucked their wheel while they (HTC) did the chasing.

He could be bluffing of course but if Tony Martin is a GC rider now Cav may have one less rider for his train as well.

David Martin

  • Thats Dr Oi You thankyouverymuch
Re: Tour predictions thread
« Reply #91 on: June 30, 2011, 07:06:12 pm »
You'll see HTC let a breakaway go when there is flat finish so that non-challengers can remove those points leaving Cav fresh enough for the finale, and Cav going for the intermediates on stages where he cannot realistically challenge for the win.
"By creating we think. By living we learn" - Patrick Geddes

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Re: Tour predictions thread
« Reply #92 on: June 30, 2011, 07:20:44 pm »
I would put my money on Troussel winning this one.

Tour de France à la Voile

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citoyen

  • Cat 6 Racer
Re: Tour predictions thread
« Reply #93 on: July 01, 2011, 11:39:35 am »
Top three:
1.Contador
2.Wiggo
3.Rodriguez

...which would be pretty amazing considering he's not even in the race.  :facepalm:

Katusha have gone for an all-Russian team, which means no Pozzato either. Surely that's leaving out their two best chances of a stage win? Odd decision.

d.