Author Topic: Cavendish - How legendary will he be?  (Read 8580 times)

Re: Cavendish - How legendary will he be?
« Reply #50 on: July 24, 2011, 11:10:41 pm »
No the DS in the car should have all that factored in
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Re: Cavendish - How legendary will he be?
« Reply #51 on: July 24, 2011, 11:36:19 pm »
How can he predict who will make a break towards the end and how fast it will be?

What happens if he predicts a fast finish and tells Cav (or someone like him) to up his effort to make the time, then the break doesn't come and Cav/Joe Sprinter is unduly bollocksed for the next days sprint?

I think they can only predict so much, the rest they have to leave to chance.


citoyen

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Cavendish - How legendary will he be?
« Reply #52 on: July 24, 2011, 11:51:29 pm »
They know what coefficient will be used for each stage (see the main TdF thread), so as soon as the winner has crossed the line, the DS can work out the exact cutoff time to the second. Presumably it's then trivial to relay that info to the riders and tell them to go faster/slower accordingly.

d.

citoyen

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Cavendish - How legendary will he be?
« Reply #53 on: July 25, 2011, 12:04:40 am »
But as LEE says - the sprinters play a game of brinkmanship based on saving their energy for the next flat day, and often rely on the "there's 70 of us in this group, they can't send all of us home" argument.

Interestingly, Cav himself didn't appear to be on the limit on Friday's stage - not judging by the way he sprinted for the line - and Thor was in that group too, even though he'd been climbing respectably well.

I'm sure they made every effort to get home inside the time limit though - no way would Cav have been content to lose those points.

d.


Re: Cavendish - How legendary will he be?
« Reply #54 on: July 25, 2011, 12:05:26 am »
They know what coefficient will be used for each stage (see the main TdF thread), so as soon as the winner has crossed the line, the DS can work out the exact cutoff time to the second. Presumably it's then trivial to relay that info to the riders and tell them to go faster/slower accordingly.

d.

Yes, but that goes back to my original point. If the finishing time is quicker than anticipated, and the average speed needed to make the cut off isn't realistic over such a short distance left to the finish, then they're not going to make the effort are they? To significantly increase your average speed over a short distance requires a big effort, it would be simple if they knew at the start, but if your speed needs to increase between short amount of time of the stage winner crossing the line and your current point on the road, then it's too much effort to make it worthwhile.

Also, doesn't the coefficient alter not only on the stage but the actual average speed of the stage winner? So that leaves even more room for cocking it up.

Edit: Just spotted your last reply- I didn't think anyone in the bus sprinted for the line on Friday, didn't Magnus Backstedt even comment on it? something like "I'm surprised they didn't make an effort to sprint for the line considering they were only 20 odd seconds short of the cut off"

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Re: Cavendish - How legendary will he be?
« Reply #55 on: July 25, 2011, 12:18:13 am »
I think in general the coefficient increases with stage length, so they all knew that Friday's stage would be close, whatever the winner's average speed - the "non-climbers" were all worried about this.

They didn't sprint on Friday because they knew the organisers couldn't kick all of them out (what was it - 60-70 riders?) Also, Rojas was in the group, so any points deductions would affect all the main contenders equally.

citoyen

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Re: Cavendish - How legendary will he be?
« Reply #56 on: July 25, 2011, 01:38:32 am »
To significantly increase your average speed over a short distance requires a big effort, it would be simple if they knew at the start, but if your speed needs to increase between short amount of time of the stage winner crossing the line and your current point on the road, then it's too much effort to make it worthwhile.

This is all supposition and guesswork on my part, I admit I don't know how it actually works in practice, but it seems obvious to me that they must have a reasonable idea in advance of when the winner is going to finish to be able to come in so close to the cutoff time.

Quote
Also, doesn't the coefficient alter not only on the stage but the actual average speed of the stage winner? So that leaves even more room for cocking it up.

Yeah, it goes up by 1% for every kilometre per hour faster the winner rides. For Friday's stage, that means they would have had around 4 minutes less time to reach the finish if the winner had got there 1km/h faster than expected. On Thursday, if the winner had been 1km/h faster than expected, it would have reduced the cutoff time by around 9 minutes.

Given that they were only 17 seconds outside the cutoff on Friday, and a bit over two minutes outside the cutoff on Thursday, I'd say it looks like they had a pretty good idea what time the winner was expected in. Those are tiny margins in the context of the length of the race each day.

Like I say, it's only supposition and guesswork, but this is what the figures suggest to me. And I don't know how feasible it would be for a lone rider or a small breakaway group to ride 1km/h faster than expected over a mountain stage, but surely it would take a significant amount of extra effort on their part? I know the peloton sometimes ride that much faster than expected on flat stages, but that's a whole different ball game.

Quote
Edit: Just spotted your last reply- I didn't think anyone in the bus sprinted for the line on Friday, didn't Magnus Backstedt even comment on it? something like "I'm surprised they didn't make an effort to sprint for the line considering they were only 20 odd seconds short of the cut off"

Well, maybe "sprinting" is too strong a word for it but it looked to me watching it on telly like Cav was at the front of the pack and among those pushing hard to get to the line as quick as possible. But I bow to Maggie's superior knowledge and understanding of these things.

d.

citoyen

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Re: Cavendish - How legendary will he be?
« Reply #57 on: July 25, 2011, 01:43:14 am »
I think in general the coefficient increases with stage length

In the case of mountain stages, the opposite is true. Thursday's ~200km stage had a +6% cutoff based on a winning time of 30km/h, while Friday's ~100km stage  had a +9% cutoff.

As per previous post, the cutoff increases by 1% for every 1km/h faster the winner rides (Rolland rode a shade under 34km/h on Friday so they were given a +12% cutoff).

d.

citoyen

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Cavendish - How legendary will he be?
« Reply #58 on: July 25, 2011, 08:10:27 am »

You can't ignore the stats. I'd have thought the relative number of stage wins answers that question. Cav is regularly beating the likes of Greipel and Farrar, who are no slouches themselves.

Of course, if you take the stats into account, I suppose you have to consider Cipo's 42 wins in the Giro, a race that he did complete several times, hills and all.

And he was beating the likes of Robbie McEwen in his prime...

It all becomes a bit less clear-cut when you stop to actually think about it carefully...

d.

JT

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Re: Cavendish - How legendary will he be?
« Reply #59 on: July 25, 2011, 08:53:00 am »
I've just been looking at the course for the World Championship in Copenhagen in September, which Cav has stated is his next target. The final 1km or so is along a dead straight road with a bit of a gradient. OK, so it only gains about 20m but it's enough of a climb to make it interesting. Not unlike last year's finish, but a longer finishing straight and a longer climb.

The 14km finishing circuit has a couple of small bumps in it too.

Can Cav do it? Hard to say, but I'm not sure I'd bet against him.

d.

The course profile is nothing to worry about - British Cycling have had this one pencilled-in for Cav since it was announced. The big worry will be whether GB have a big enough team to control the race because if everyone knows it's a course that suits Cav, every other team will not want a "bunchy" at the end.

Anyway I'll be in Copenhagen cheering him on so he'd better boody do it!  ;D
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Re: Cavendish - How legendary will he be?
« Reply #60 on: July 25, 2011, 09:10:23 am »
The driver of the autobus needs to be adept at mental arithmetic.

Won't he get help from someone in a team car with a computer?

They've been successfully beating the cut for years, since before there were computers and team radios. The autobus needs someone good at arithmetic to lead it.
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Re: Cavendish - How legendary will he be?
« Reply #61 on: July 25, 2011, 09:59:01 am »
A large photo of Cav is on the front page of today's Daily Telegraph.  Good to see a British cyclist getting that big into mainstream media.
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Re: Cavendish - How legendary will he be?
« Reply #62 on: July 25, 2011, 10:06:47 am »
Changing tack somewhat ...
 Just watched the fluff before Sunday's stage. Didn't Peta Todd come across well in the trackside interview?

I found her comments - about Cav's nerves, and being proud of him struggling over the Alpine stages -  really touching.
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Re: Cavendish - How legendary will he be?
« Reply #63 on: July 25, 2011, 10:40:00 am »
I like David Millar's comments (from what I remember)

Interviewer "I suppose if he were French, Spanish or Italian he'd be like David Beckam"

Millar "He is like David Beckham in France, Spain and Italy, just not in Britain"

citoyen

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Re: Cavendish - How legendary will he be?
« Reply #64 on: July 25, 2011, 10:51:50 am »
The course profile is nothing to worry about - British Cycling have had this one pencilled-in for Cav since it was announced. The big worry will be whether GB have a big enough team to control the race because if everyone knows it's a course that suits Cav, every other team will not want a "bunchy" at the end.

Sounds promising. And he seems pretty focussed on it judging by his post-race interview yesterday... GB get six places, don't they? If they can control the race, Wiggo and Thomas should make pretty good leadout men. Who else are they likely to take? Kennaugh, Swift & Downing?

d.

JT

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Re: Cavendish - How legendary will he be?
« Reply #65 on: July 25, 2011, 11:25:32 am »
The course profile is nothing to worry about - British Cycling have had this one pencilled-in for Cav since it was announced. The big worry will be whether GB have a big enough team to control the race because if everyone knows it's a course that suits Cav, every other team will not want a "bunchy" at the end.

Sounds promising. And he seems pretty focussed on it judging by his post-race interview yesterday... GB get six places, don't they? If they can control the race, Wiggo and Thomas should make pretty good leadout men. Who else are they likely to take? Kennaugh, Swift & Downing?

d.

If GB are ranked in the UCI top ten they get 10 places. The rankings will be updated soon but as of June they were 9th.

Wiggins and either Millar or Dowsett will also be riding the TT. Not sure if Dowsett still qualifies for the U23 event.

Cav, Thomas, Stannard, Swift, Downing, Millar, Wiggins, and Hunt for sure.  Then there's Blythe from Omega Pharma - a sprinter who could form part of the lead-out, Hammond and Lloyd from Garmin-Cervelo - very experienced guys who can ride all day. Maybe Kennaugh too but not sure he's got the power for a flatt-ish course. They'll need big powerful riders to stop breakaways getting too far ahead while keeping the likes of Wiggins and Thomas for the big lead-out at the end.

They all had a two day get-together before the British Nationals to "bond" and plan for the race. They don't want anyone else "doing a Wegelius".



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citoyen

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Re: Cavendish - How legendary will he be?
« Reply #66 on: July 25, 2011, 11:49:46 am »
If GB are ranked in the UCI top ten they get 10 places. The rankings will be updated soon but as of June they were 9th.

Excellent. I didn't realise they'd climbed that high in the rankings.

Quote
Cav, Thomas, Stannard, Swift, Downing, Millar, Wiggins, and Hunt for sure.

Can't believe I forgot about Millar. He'll be handy in the Tony Martin-type role.

Looks like they've got the makings of a good, strong team.  :thumbsup:

d.

JT

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Re: Cavendish - How legendary will he be?
« Reply #67 on: July 25, 2011, 11:53:22 am »
If GB are ranked in the UCI top ten they get 10 places. The rankings will be updated soon but as of June they were 9th.

Excellent. I didn't realise they'd climbed that high in the rankings.

Cav's 5 stage wins at the Tour should keep them up there too.
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Re: Cavendish - How legendary will he be?
« Reply #68 on: July 25, 2011, 12:38:00 pm »
Changing tack somewhat ...
 Just watched the fluff before Sunday's stage. Didn't Peta Todd come across well in the trackside interview?

I found her comments - about Cav's nerves, and being proud of him struggling over the Alpine stages -  really touching.

She seemed very sensible and knowledgeable. cf football WAGs.
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citoyen

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Re: Cavendish - How legendary will he be?
« Reply #69 on: July 25, 2011, 12:42:50 pm »
In my job, I meet a lot of women in her line of work and it's always been obvious that she's very intelligent, and a thoroughly decent person with it. I mean, most of them are charming young ladies but she's got more brain cells than most of the rest of them put together. Plus she was keen on cycling even before she met Cav - that alone should show that she's a cut above the average WAG material.

d.

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Re: Cavendish - How legendary will he be?
« Reply #70 on: July 25, 2011, 01:37:53 pm »
I like David Millar's comments (from what I remember)

Interviewer "I suppose if he were French, Spanish or Italian he'd be like David Beckam"

Millar "He is like David Beckham in France, Spain and Italy, just not in Britain"

that neatly sums up the apathy this country(& it's media) have towards the sport

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Re: Cavendish - How legendary will he be?
« Reply #71 on: July 25, 2011, 01:44:14 pm »
Yes, but this country and its media is slowly coming round.  The sport of cycling and its cyclists gets mentioned on television more than than it did some years ago, and as I mentioned above, "the green giant" is on the front page of today's Daily Telegraph.
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Re: Cavendish - How legendary will he be?
« Reply #72 on: July 25, 2011, 01:49:13 pm »
I like David Millar's comments (from what I remember)

Interviewer "I suppose if he were French, Spanish or Italian he'd be like David Beckam"

Millar "He is like David Beckham in France, Spain and Italy, just not in Britain"

that neatly sums up the apathy this country(& it's media) have towards the sport

It's coz cycling is for plebs who can't afford cars, innit.

citoyen

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Re: Cavendish - How legendary will he be?
« Reply #73 on: July 25, 2011, 01:49:39 pm »
Yes, but this country and its media is slowly coming round.  The sport of cycling and its cyclists gets mentioned on television more than than it did some years ago, and as I mentioned above, "the green giant" is on the front page of today's Daily Telegraph.

It's great that the Telegraph are getting behind him.

Unfortunately, the front of the Guardian sports section is more typical - it has Cav and Amir Khan below the fold, with Lewis Hamilton and Matt Prior above. FFS, Hamilton won one poxy race (after being a bit shit all season), and the England cricket team haven't even finished their current match yet, never mind winning it (haven't seen the current score but I'm predicting it'll end in a draw).

d.

citoyen

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Re: Cavendish - How legendary will he be?
« Reply #74 on: July 25, 2011, 01:56:44 pm »
As for the campaign to get Cav voted Sports Personality of the Year, I know it's doomed to fail cos a couple of lovable Irish rogues with golf bats have each won a competition that only requires them to perform for four days over the same course, as opposed to 21 days over a different course each day.

Frankly, I've never much cared for the Sports Personality of the Year competition, largely because most of its winners have had very little in the way of personality. But Cav is both supremely excellent at his sport and has oodles of personality. So even though I don't care about the competition, I'm wracked with a sense of injustice that he won't get a look in.  >:(

I know, let's give it to some footballing charisma vacuum who later turns out to be a philandering Welsh arsehole.

d.