Author Topic: Wiggins - third day in red!  (Read 8437 times)

citoyen

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Re: Wiggins - third day in red!
« Reply #25 on: September 05, 2011, 01:05:12 pm »
Interesting comments from Jonathan Vaughters on Twitter about the power output required to ride up the Angliru as fast as Cobo did.

I smell a subtext, but I can't for the life of me work out what he might be trying to hint at.

d.

David Martin

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Re: Wiggins - third day in red!
« Reply #26 on: September 05, 2011, 01:23:09 pm »
Interesting comment on Twitter from Charlie Wegelius.
Quote
Cobo?
"By creating we think. By living we learn" - Patrick Geddes

citoyen

  • Cat 6 Racer
Re: Wiggins - third day in red!
« Reply #27 on: September 05, 2011, 01:47:19 pm »
Interesting comment on Twitter from Charlie Wegelius.
Quote
Cobo?

To be fair, he did win the stage to Hautacam in the TdF a few years ago. OK, so it was only after his team-mate, Piepoli, who actually crossed the line first, was disqualified, but a win's a win. The pair finished 28 seconds ahead of Frank Schleck in third. Bernhard Kohl finished 4th and Riccardo Ricco finished 6th...

Anyway, innuendo aside, it was a fantastic race from the spectator's point of view yesterday, very exciting.

d.

mattc

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Re: Wiggins - third day in red!
« Reply #28 on: September 05, 2011, 01:50:05 pm »
My feeling about Wiggins is that the TdeF may well be beyond him. Contador, Evans, Schkeck(s) all seem a little stronger, and it only takes one of them to be on form in any given year.(There's probably some younger riders, too, that I've forgotten about, who will get in the way over the next few years.)

He's probably less suited to the hillier Giro/Vuelta, but a podium on either might well be his natural 'level' in road cycling. A win would be a bonus.

Anyway:
There are officially 3 "mountain stages" this week. 46s doesn't sound a lot in that context <goes off to find detailed profiles ... > Wiggo could do with a nice 50k ITT thrown in :D
Has never ridden RAAM
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No.11  Because of the great host of those who dislike the least appearance of "swank " when they travel the roads and lanes. - From Kuklos' 39 Articles

mattc

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Re: Wiggins - third day in red!
« Reply #29 on: September 05, 2011, 02:05:06 pm »
Only looked at Wednesday's profile, but this looks a tough day to defend:


The second half is more complicated with two mountain passes, Sía and Alisa. In addition the Peña Cabarga finish will force cyclists to save some energy, since the final climb is about six kilometres and has an average gradient of nearly 10%, with ramps that reach as high as 18%.
Has never ridden RAAM
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No.11  Because of the great host of those who dislike the least appearance of "swank " when they travel the roads and lanes. - From Kuklos' 39 Articles

citoyen

  • Cat 6 Racer
Re: Wiggins - third day in red!
« Reply #30 on: September 05, 2011, 02:10:33 pm »
My feeling about Wiggins is that the TdeF may well be beyond him. Contador, Evans, Schkeck(s) all seem a little stronger, and it only takes one of them to be on form in any given year.

He definitely could have won it this year. With the form he was in going into the race, and a strong team behind him, he would have matched Evans in the mountains, as he showed in the Dauphiné. And he'd already outperformed Evans over the same TT course in that race. The Schlecks killed their own chances with indecision, Contador was knackered after the Giro and most of the other big names failed to show up.

Though admittedly a few of the other contenders could say the same thing - Brajkovic would probably have been up there competing for a podium spot if he hadn't also crashed out.

And I suspect Wiggo won't ever get as good an opportunity to win the TdF as that again.

Quote
(There's probably some younger riders, too, that I've forgotten about, who will get in the way over the next few years.)

Geraint Thomas, perhaps? Seriously, I reckon G would be a better bet for Sky in the long run.

There's also the likes of Tom Danielson, Rein Taaramae and Pierre Rolland coming up fast. And others, I'm sure, but they're just the first names that come to mind.

Quote
There are officially 3 "mountain stages" this week. 46s doesn't sound a lot in that context <goes off to find detailed profiles ... > Wiggo could do with a nice 50k ITT thrown in :D

In the previous mountain stages where Froome and Wiggo destroyed the field with their threshold riding, Cobo is the one rider who never lost any time to them. I can't see them closing the gap unless they can pick up a few time bonuses with a finish place. Maybe if the gap was just a little bit smaller, it might be possible to overhaul Cobo...

That team TT really was a disaster.

d.

David Martin

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Re: Wiggins - third day in red!
« Reply #31 on: September 05, 2011, 02:53:08 pm »
They need to ride threshold for longer..
Easy to say :)

Is it me or was Brad slightly overgeared and that contributed to the time loss? He was the heaviest geared (38/32) of the top finishers - Cobo the easiest geared (34/28)
"By creating we think. By living we learn" - Patrick Geddes

Re: Wiggins - third day in red!
« Reply #32 on: September 05, 2011, 02:59:00 pm »
Is it me or was Brad slightly overgeared and that contributed to the time loss? He was the heaviest geared (38/32) of the top finishers - Cobo the easiest geared (34/28)

other way round isn't it?

38/32 = 1.1875
34/28 = 1.214285714285714

(I'm assuming easiest means lowest which is how I've always taken it)

Re: Wiggins - third day in red!
« Reply #33 on: September 05, 2011, 03:05:06 pm »
Apparently at the start of the Vuelta Chris Froome was without a contract for 2012. What with Cav going to Sky I wonder if he has upped his worth so much that Sky can no longer afford him? Hope not. Wiggo needs him. But then Cav is going to have a new train for 2012 so who will Wiggo have as his lieutenant if Froome is tempted by megabucks elsewhere? Interesting times.
Working my way up to inferior.

Re: Wiggins - third day in red!
« Reply #34 on: September 05, 2011, 03:27:34 pm »
Interesting comment on Twitter from Charlie Wegelius.
Quote
Cobo?

To be fair, he did win the stage to Hautacam in the TdF a few years ago. OK, so it was only after his team-mate, Piepoli, who actually crossed the line first, was disqualified, but a win's a win. The pair finished 28 seconds ahead of Frank Schleck in third. Bernhard Kohl finished 4th and Riccardo Ricco finished 6th...

Anyway, innuendo aside, it was a fantastic race from the spectator's point of view yesterday, very exciting.

d.

I've heard mutterings about Cobo before, but that didn't stop it being very exciting yesterday (albeit a tad depressing).
The journey is always more important than the destination

mattc

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Re: Wiggins - third day in red!
« Reply #35 on: September 05, 2011, 03:28:16 pm »
Is it me or was Brad slightly overgeared and that contributed to the time loss? He was the heaviest geared (38/32) of the top finishers - Cobo the easiest geared (34/28)
What caught my eye is that they all seemed to be  at comfortably high cadences*.
Whereas on Le Tour riders often seem to be labouring, and/or spending many kms out of the saddle. it's as if the officially more extreme gradients in Spain persuade them that an efficient cadence is more important than macho choice of chainset.

*at least until my 30min recording from ITV4 ended with 6km to go ...
Has never ridden RAAM
---------
No.11  Because of the great host of those who dislike the least appearance of "swank " when they travel the roads and lanes. - From Kuklos' 39 Articles

David Martin

  • Thats Dr Oi You thankyouverymuch
Re: Wiggins - third day in red!
« Reply #36 on: September 05, 2011, 03:33:15 pm »
Cobo's last stage win was by default when his teammmate Piepoli (of the infamous Saunier Duval team) was DQ'd from the win for doping.

Gearing - my memory was faulty

Cobo - 34 x 32 - 27.9
Froome - 36 x 28 - 33.8
Wiggins - 38 x 32 - 31.2
Mollema 36 x 28 - 33.8
"By creating we think. By living we learn" - Patrick Geddes

citoyen

  • Cat 6 Racer
Re: Wiggins - third day in red!
« Reply #37 on: September 05, 2011, 03:42:52 pm »
his teammmate ... of the infamous Saunier Duval team

Ricco was part of the same team, of course.

Cobo's last stage win in a Grand Tour was in the 2009 Vuelta, by the way. Hautacam was 2008. (According to Wikipedia)

d.

Re: Wiggins - third day in red!
« Reply #38 on: September 05, 2011, 04:03:43 pm »
Is it me or was Brad slightly overgeared and that contributed to the time loss? He was the heaviest geared (38/32) of the top finishers - Cobo the easiest geared (34/28)
What caught my eye is that they all seemed to be  at comfortably high cadences*.
Whereas on Le Tour riders often seem to be labouring, and/or spending many kms out of the saddle. it's as if the officially more extreme gradients in Spain persuade them that an efficient cadence is more important than macho choice of chainset.

I'm always puzzled by the high gears and low cadences most GT riders usually use. Hasn't anyone ever told them mashing is inefficient and bad for the knees? Or is it some sort of macho thing ("My ratio's bigger than your ratio").

It is a pleasure to watch riders like Wiggo and Froome twiddling away so smoothly.
The journey is always more important than the destination

Re: Wiggins - third day in red!
« Reply #39 on: September 05, 2011, 09:28:55 pm »
Let's wait to see if Cobo gets caught by a doping control.  It would be a shame if it happened after next weekend.  Brailsford must be fuming.

parkysouthlondon

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Re: Wiggins - third day in red!
« Reply #40 on: September 05, 2011, 09:47:24 pm »
I think Wiggo is riding cleaver. He has such a smoooooooooth pedal action, embarrassing the other riders who must look at him and see class. Yes Class, and he does have belief in his abilities, if some of you don't. I mean he's Olympic and world champion unless you have forgotten.
You win a grand tour by being consistent and not worrying too much about loosing a few seconds here or there. He's just allowing the pressure to be taken off him, until he want to reclaim the leaders jersey.

Go Wiggo. :thumbsup:
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Re: Wiggins - third day in red!
« Reply #41 on: September 06, 2011, 12:01:24 am »
Let's wait to see if Cobo gets caught by a doping control.  It would be a shame if it happened after next weekend.  Brailsford must be fuming.

Upon what do you base this putative outcome?  Why should Cobo get caught rather than Wiggo or Froome?
Working my way up to inferior.

David Martin

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Re: Wiggins - third day in red!
« Reply #42 on: September 06, 2011, 12:13:46 am »
It is suspicion based upon previous associations and utstanding preformances when in a team that was not known for a dislike of needles. He was the only rider to stay with Piepoli (banned for EPO) at the Hautaam in 2008, and a then teammate of Ricco (banned for EPO as well)

Cobo had split with the then trainer, had a bad year and is now back with him and producing outstanding results again. The finger of suspicion havers heavily in his direction as he shoots up the 'dodgy ones to watch' list at the UCI.
"By creating we think. By living we learn" - Patrick Geddes

Re: Wiggins - third day in red!
« Reply #43 on: September 06, 2011, 12:24:13 am »
Sorry David, I find your 'guilt by association' argument hard to stomach. Presumably you condemn performances by another Saunier Duval rider (a Mr Millar) equally irredeemable?
Working my way up to inferior.

David Martin

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Re: Wiggins - third day in red!
« Reply #44 on: September 06, 2011, 08:38:14 am »
I was not claiming he had doped, I was pointing out the reasons why some might find his performance to be a little suspicious. AFAIK he has found his best form for this race, and the physiological stats support it not being somthing extraordinary (exceptional, yes but not off the scale).
"By creating we think. By living we learn" - Patrick Geddes

Re: Wiggins - third day in red!
« Reply #45 on: September 06, 2011, 08:48:00 am »
I was not claiming he had doped, I was pointing out the reasons why some might find his performance to be a little suspicious. AFAIK he has found his best form for this race, and the physiological stats support it not being somthing extraordinary (exceptional, yes but not off the scale).

The problem with doping in sport is that the athlete is guilty until proved innocent once an allegation is made. Alleging doping is not the same as finding a performance anomalous or unexpected.
The journey is always more important than the destination

citoyen

  • Cat 6 Racer
Re: Wiggins - third day in red!
« Reply #46 on: September 06, 2011, 11:01:03 am »
Alleging doping is not the same as finding a performance anomalous or unexpected.

"Anomalous" and "unexpected" are different things. Anomalies require explanations. Wiggo's performance in the 2009 TdF was unexpected but there was nothing anomalous about it (plus he was riding for an avowedly anti-doping team so it would be unbelievable hubris if it turned out he was doping). Voeckler's performance in the TdF this year was unexpected. Cobo's performance on Sunday was borderline anomalous but if, as David M says, the physiological stats back him up, then I'm happy to accept that it was merely unexpected.

Anyway, I watched highlights of the stage again last night. It was fantastic viewing, completely gripping even when you knew the outcome in advance. Taken at face value, it was a magnificent ride by Cobo.

As for Millar, he rode for Saunier Duval for one year - 2007, his comeback year - when they were the only team that would have him. I think it's quite telling that he didn't feel like sticking around. And given what happened in 2008, I bet he's glad he got out when he did.

d.

David Martin

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Re: Wiggins - third day in red!
« Reply #47 on: September 06, 2011, 12:01:41 pm »
There are those who work out an atheletes power output over the course of the climb. Knowing the profile of the climb and the time you can get a reasonable estimate.

Because of the way that Brad&co ride the climbs, they are more steady state threshold efforts than pure climbers trying to knock spots off each other with accelerations. So the power output appears higher (as overall they go up faster).

Cobo produced a very high but not off the scale of believability performance. I'm happy to give him the benefit of the doubt. I think the thing that won it for him was that fractionally lower gearing at the second really steep ramp. That was where Wiggins et al really lost time (and did anyone else catch the report of Wiggo having a spectators flag wrap round his bars - fortunately didn't knock him off).


"By creating we think. By living we learn" - Patrick Geddes

citoyen

  • Cat 6 Racer
Re: Wiggins - third day in red!
« Reply #48 on: September 06, 2011, 12:23:35 pm »
There are those who work out an atheletes power output over the course of the climb. Knowing the profile of the climb and the time you can get a reasonable estimate.
...
Cobo produced a very high but not off the scale of believability performance. I'm happy to give him the benefit of the doubt.

The not too subtle hints Vaughters was dropping were that his estimates made Cobo's performance look suspicious. Still, he's not exactly impartial, so perhaps he was choosing to interpret the figures in a certain way.

I didn't hear about the flag incident, but it might be regarded as a bit suspicious that they lost the camera following Brad at a crucial part of the climb! Sean Kelly also suggested that Cobo was getting a helpful push from some of the spectators...

But none of this speculation matters. All's fair in love and bike racing.

d.

David Martin

  • Thats Dr Oi You thankyouverymuch
Re: Wiggins - third day in red!
« Reply #49 on: September 06, 2011, 01:23:15 pm »
The spectators were a bit more mental than usual on the steep bits. I think I saw several of the riders get a bit of crowd assistance at times.
"By creating we think. By living we learn" - Patrick Geddes