Author Topic: Milan San-Remo 2012  (Read 6391 times)

Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
« Reply #25 on: March 18, 2012, 10:32:30 am »
That is indeed bunch racing! C knows he will win most TTs, but the odds are against him in a "drafting allowed" event.

Bollocks. Have a look at his palmarès




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Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
« Reply #26 on: March 18, 2012, 10:40:43 am »
That is indeed bunch racing! C knows he will win most TTs, but the odds are against him in a "drafting allowed" event.

Bollocks. Have a look at his palmarès

That makes no sense, just because he's won a lot of stuff doesn't mean that he's favourite to win every race he's in, or even every bunch finish he's involved in.

Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
« Reply #27 on: March 18, 2012, 11:07:35 am »
Nobody has said he is.

Have a look at his palmarès. Now work out what proportion of those are TTs.


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Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
« Reply #28 on: March 18, 2012, 11:13:19 am »
Nobody has said he is.
You have. mattc said the odds are against him, you said that was bollocks. By definition if the odds are not against him then you are claiming that he is the favourite.

Now you have a look his palmares and work out how many [non TT] races he entered but did not win. Most of them. Clearly the odds are against him.

Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
« Reply #29 on: March 18, 2012, 11:19:24 am »
Matt is implying that Cancellara is really just a TT winner, a quick look at his wins shows that is not the case. Beyond that, I can't be arsed. Enjoy your day.

LittleWheelsandBig

  • Whimsy Rider
Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
« Reply #30 on: March 18, 2012, 11:19:41 am »
How many racers don't lose more races than they win, Beryl Burton aside?
Wheel meet again, don't know where, don't know when...

Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
« Reply #31 on: March 18, 2012, 11:22:13 am »
Nobody has said he is.

Have a look at his palmarès. Now work out what proportion of those are TTs.

It's difficult to see from that list of wins, as so many are in stage races, so they may be the time-trial stages. Wins by rouleurs don't make for good television, people seem to want the excitement of a bunch sprint, or the drama of a mountain-top finish, so apart from Paris-Roubaix a lot of them go unnoticed.

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Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
« Reply #32 on: March 18, 2012, 11:39:27 am »
Matt is implying that Cancellara is really just a TT winner, a quick look at his wins shows that is not the case. Beyond that, I can't be arsed. Enjoy your day.

Matt is implying that the odds are against him in a "drafting allowed" event, a quick look at his wins shows that is the case.

Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
« Reply #33 on: March 18, 2012, 11:49:35 am »

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Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
« Reply #34 on: March 18, 2012, 11:55:21 am »
The Odds
Those odds show three to one against him winning. Making the 'odds are against him' idea even clearer.

And that's one race out of the dozens of one day races and stages in multi-stage events he'll be taking part in over the season, and he's going to win hardly any of them.

Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
« Reply #35 on: March 18, 2012, 12:03:51 pm »
Curiously the odds are even more against all other riders.


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Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
« Reply #36 on: March 18, 2012, 12:29:55 pm »
And yet when you add them all up the other riders have a cumulatively massive advantage. Curiouser and curiouser.

Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
« Reply #37 on: March 18, 2012, 01:15:23 pm »
Just amazing to watch Cancellara hold off the chasing group as they launched an all-out sprint -- what a superb rider he is! Good win for Gerrans too.

Nibali? Meh.

I can't help but think that if it was Nibali riding in support of Sagan rather than the other way round, that Sagan could have won it. Maybe Sagan will get his chance in the weeks to come.

Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
« Reply #38 on: March 18, 2012, 02:40:57 pm »
And yet when you add them all up the other riders have a cumulatively massive advantage. Curiouser and curiouser.

And yet only one person can win at a time.

I can't understand why bookmakers make so much money when the people they suggest have the best odds of winning clearly have the least because they lose more races than they win.

Maybe Merckx wasn't as great as we were led to believe.

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Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
« Reply #39 on: March 18, 2012, 02:57:33 pm »
And yet when you add them all up the other riders have a cumulatively massive advantage. Curiouser and curiouser.

And yet only one person can win at a time.

I can't understand why bookmakers make so much money when the people they suggest have the best odds of winning clearly have the least because they lose more races than they win.

Maybe Merckx wasn't as great as we were led to believe.

Eddie Merckx won approx one in every three races he entered; he was the favourite for almost of them despite losing two races for every one he won. He rode something like 150 TdF stages and won 34 of them, less than one in four. You having problems understanding fractions doesn't make him any less of a rider.

Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
« Reply #40 on: March 18, 2012, 03:06:00 pm »
No but it still makes him more of a loser than a winner if we are to view things on your spectrum.

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Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
« Reply #41 on: March 18, 2012, 03:35:28 pm »
One 1st place makes you a winner no matter how many times you might fail before or after. Failing to place in a big field doesn't make you a loser.

http://youtu.be/10HgJjb7zVk

Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
« Reply #42 on: March 18, 2012, 04:13:22 pm »
Failing to place in a big field doesn't make you a loser.

Cancellara placed yesterday, and yet he was one of 148 losers.

Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
« Reply #43 on: March 18, 2012, 04:18:59 pm »
...... and Simon Gerrans was the winner.  ;D ;D

Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
« Reply #44 on: March 18, 2012, 04:24:57 pm »
...... and Simon Gerrans was the winner.  ;D ;D

He's also the leader in the UCI rankings.

Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
« Reply #45 on: March 18, 2012, 04:32:00 pm »
...... and Simon Gerrans was the winner.  ;D ;D

One of the winners, GruB.

Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
« Reply #46 on: March 18, 2012, 04:35:33 pm »
But I thought you said........

And yet only one person can win at a time.

LittleWheelsandBig

  • Whimsy Rider
Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
« Reply #47 on: March 18, 2012, 04:37:30 pm »
But more than one person has won MSR over the years...
Wheel meet again, don't know where, don't know when...

Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
« Reply #48 on: March 18, 2012, 04:45:08 pm »
Yes, Cancellara being one of them (+ Paris-Roubaix twice) but apparently that means the odds are against him now

 ;D

Re: Milan San-Remo 2012
« Reply #49 on: March 18, 2012, 04:49:44 pm »
That is odd, someone of his class should be favourite.  ::-)