[LEL] Your personal LEL stats

[red marley]

Oops. Copy and paste error now corrected. The modelling is now incorporated into the visualization.

[cygnet]

Hello jo. I wonder if I've picked up someone elses statistics too from your copy/paste - the stopped times you show for me ^up there show me riding between controls at c.20 mph until Thirsk on the way back which is flattering, but if only I could!
Alternatively I could be an aukward rider who doesn't fit the rules but your new visualisation seems to follow more like I'd calculate based on your outline rule. (Which BTW is excellent, and seems to validate the two decisions I made on the ride (to bounce Kirton, and to keep moving to Thirsk outbound) which effectively leapfrogged me over the bulge)

[red marley]

Yes, it looks like I put someone else's details in when reporting your (Cygnet) predicted values. I've corrected the table to include the correct values.

Generally I think the 92% drop in speed is tending to under-estimate moving speed and consequently slightly under-estimating the amount of time spent at controls. I'll tweek the min stop time and the drop-off rate to see if I can improve the predictions a little.

[mattc]

I haven't had time to fully digest all this (and I fear my puny hardware can't run Jo's animations very well anyway!). But looking at the tables, the modelling seems astonishingly succesful.

The '92%' rule looks like a great fit. If I could propose an alternative:
I suspect that I ride quicker on Day3 after a good sleep, than after 300km on Day1. I wonder if it's possible to model this - more as an experiment than with the aim of producing a useful prediction model for future events.