Author Topic: [HAMR] Visualizing the OYTT  (Read 171558 times)

Basil

  • Um....err......oh bugger!
  • Help me!
Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #575 on: July 12, 2015, 06:53:23 pm »
Did IronOx not pop down the shops or anything?
Quote from: Kim
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red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #576 on: July 13, 2015, 07:02:20 am »
Day 193: Kurt sticks to roads in the Baileys Harbor region, has a couple of punctures and GPS problems but still manages 210 miles. Steve does a wide loop of Cambridge with 178 miles for the day. Miles heads east from Melbourne for 108 miles. He is now as far behind Tommy's WR pace as Steve was following his crash.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #577 on: July 14, 2015, 08:27:31 am »
Day 194: Kurt manages 201 miles despite the day being top and tailed by heavy storms. Steve does a familiar loop via Spalding with a late end to the day giving him 209 miles and an annual total of 32,000. Miles puts in a long day of which 196 miles fall within the 24 hours of the 13th July.


Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #578 on: July 14, 2015, 01:20:09 pm »
Thanks for all the interesting graphs  :thumbsup:

Do you have a graph anywhere showing how each rider's moving average is changing over time ? I'd be really interested to see that. :)

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #579 on: July 15, 2015, 06:22:41 am »
I don't yet, but I'll see what I can do.

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #580 on: July 15, 2015, 06:30:55 am »
Day 195: Kurt rides for 273 miles, making it his longest day yet in the OYTT. Steve continues his slight easing of daily distance at 204 miles in preparation for a second concurrent attempt in August. Only a few miles logged for Miles following is previous long day, but his pace over his first 27 days matches that set by Tommy in January 1939.


Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #581 on: July 15, 2015, 08:50:49 am »
Following yesterday's announcement of Steve's concurrent start in August, how are you feeling about another 8 months of these summaries, Jo?  ;)

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #582 on: July 15, 2015, 09:21:18 am »
... and the complexity of a concurrent attempt. I suppose we'll just have SA1 and SA2?

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #583 on: July 15, 2015, 01:11:21 pm »
SA1 - Saturn Apollo 1, unmanned, launched 27 October 1961. First flight of Saturn 1.

SA2 - also unmanned, launched 25th April 1962.

Pictures here - http://stellar-views.com/images/Apollo_62-SA2-4.jpg and here http://stellar-views.com/images/Saturn_C1_v2.jpg

Sorry. A bit of a space history geek you see :)
You're only as successful as your last 1200...

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #584 on: July 16, 2015, 06:48:34 am »
Following yesterday's announcement of Steve's concurrent start in August, how are you feeling about another 8 months of these summaries, Jo?  ;)

I think I may move to weekly updates. I may well be doing that in a week's time anyway when I go on holiday to a largely internet-free zone.

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #585 on: July 16, 2015, 06:59:19 am »
Day 196: Kurt rides 225 miles along familiar roads. Steve does a 214 mile variant of his fenland loop and Miles heads back down the bay for 136 miles.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #586 on: July 17, 2015, 02:33:25 pm »
Day 197: Kurt sticks largely to the edge of the lake of 213 miles. Steve does a 200 mile loop to the east of MK. Miles back up and down the bay for a 135 mile total.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #587 on: July 18, 2015, 10:30:40 am »
Day 198: Kurt does another shoreline based ride for 223 miles. Steve heads NW for 167 miles in advance of the Mersey 24 time trial starting on Saturday. Miles rides north out of Melbourne, and then back again for a 174 mile total. Tommy continued to put in big days with 314 miles on the 17th July 1939.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #588 on: July 20, 2015, 07:26:09 am »
Day 199: Kurt attempts to dodge a storm with a bit of driving but manages to ride 212 miles up to the penisula. Steve completes 167 miles by midnight as part of the Mersey Roads 24 hour TT. Miles back to the bay with a 121 mile ride.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #589 on: July 20, 2015, 07:29:22 am »
Day 200: Strong crosswinds keep Kurt to the shoreline in his 225 mile ride. He reports some breathing problems when riding the recumbent so sticks with the upright. Steve completes his Mersey 24TT with another 154 miles from midnight. Miles does another 130 mile trip along the bayside.


Fidgetbuzz

  • L sp MOON. 1st R sp MARS . At X SO sp STARS
Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #590 on: July 20, 2015, 02:10:21 pm »
Do I read these last 2 days as a total of 321 miles on the 24TT. The weather made it very tough going -- but needing to do 254 miles a day, every day from now on -- these 2 days have cost Steve another 187 miles. In fact I do not recall seeing 2 consecutive days of 250+ -- the 2015 attempt looks to me to be out of reach now.
I was an accountant until I discovered Audax !!

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #591 on: July 20, 2015, 02:41:57 pm »
Indeed - 320 miles for the two days, including a 'warm up' at 9:30am. It does bring home how difficult the OYTT is - for many riders, a 250 mile total for 24 hours would be an achievement. Steve has to do more than that every day from now onward if he were to challenge Tommy's or Kurt's total this year.

TimC

  • Bike pilot
Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #592 on: July 21, 2015, 12:09:36 am »
I think even Steve, with his eternally positive outlook, would have to agree that the 75k 'record' is now out of reach within the original timescale - but the launch of the concurrent attempt inherently recognises that, even if many of us are reluctant to acknowledge the fact. The main issue is now whether or not the 100,000 mile record is achievable by the end of July 2016; I haven't tried to work it out. What do you think, Jo?

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #593 on: July 21, 2015, 06:53:53 am »
To beat Tommy's 100,000 informal record he needs to average at least 200 mpd. Assuming an attempt starting on 1st Jan 2015, Steve currently needs to average at least 223 mpd from now until 14th May (day 500). Alternatively, if you work backwards and assume he finishes both the OYTT and the 100k on the 30th July 2016, he would need to average at least 217 mpd from now on. This may seem like a higher total than expected for the apparently "easier" 100k challenge, but is because his average over the previous 135 days (500-365), which spans the moped incident period, is about 154 mpd.

There is a bit of uncertainty in the above because we don't know when in August he is attempting the restart, nor what his average will be between now and the restart. But whatever he chooses, this remains a significant challenge.

TimC

  • Bike pilot
Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #594 on: July 21, 2015, 08:56:05 am »
Yes, I agree. Having just watched Steve give ESL a good listening-to, it seems he's concerned that he's slower than he needs to be and he's not improving - overtired and unable to recover meaningfully. How long does he go on before its time to stop and re-think the whole thing? At the moment, I'm worried that it will drift and just peter out.

SoreTween

  • Most of me survived the Pennine Bridleway.
Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #595 on: July 21, 2015, 09:39:47 am »
The main issue is now whether or not the 100,000 mile record is achievable by the end of July 2016; I haven't tried to work it out. What do you think, Jo?
I'll have a crack at that one if I may.

To get the 100k Steve needs RebootMiles + ExtraMiles >= 100,000
To get the record ExtraMiles must be completed in 500-365 days = 135 days.
Taking the 134 days up to and including 31 July Steve already has 20530.3 and that is with 2 days missing on HAMR and 12 days mileages still to be ridden.
Lets be pessimistic and assume UMCA reject the two late submissions and Steve stays in bed the rest of July.  Therefore ExtraMiles = 20530.3.
To achieve the 100k RebootMiles must therefore be >= 100,000 - 20530.3 = 79,469.7.

He may not go that far in the reboot.  As it stands he needs 75,066 but it looks likely Kurt will move that goalpost and Miles might do too.  Steve's original upper and lower plans were both > 80,000.  Time will tell but I think as things stand it looks likely that if Steve takes the year record he'll take the 100k too.
2019 targets: TINAT 160 rough
There is only one infinite resource in this universe; human stupidity.

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #596 on: July 21, 2015, 09:43:05 am »
Elegant, thanks.

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #597 on: July 23, 2015, 09:07:48 am »
Day 201: Kurt hits 40,000 miles with a 232 mile ride ending in Manitowoc. Steve slows his pace and rides 85 miles back from Cheshire to Lichfield. Miles rides from Albury back to Melbourne for a 201 mile day.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #598 on: July 23, 2015, 09:08:32 am »
Day 202: Steve announces a concurrent restart attempt starting on the 8th August, until which time he intends to ease off the long distances. He rides 97 miles from Lichfield back to MK. Kurt sticks to the Lake Michigan shoreline for 223 miles. Miles does a repeat of yesterday from Albury to Melbourne.


Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #599 on: July 23, 2015, 03:24:59 pm »
Day 202: Steve announces a concurrent restart attempt starting on the 8th August, until which time he intends to ease off the long distances.

I'd like to see him take time off the bike instead of just cutting back on the distance before his restart. He's not going to gain any fitness this way.