Author Topic: [HAMR] Visualizing the OYTT  (Read 169114 times)

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #625 on: August 07, 2015, 07:38:38 am »
Day 218: Kurt sticks to inland Wisconsin for another 212 miles passing 75,065km. Now he just has to do the same in miles. With just one more ride before his reboot, Steve does a 132 mile loop of Cambridgeshire and approaches Arthur Humbles' 1932 record. Miles heads east to Sale for a 149 mile day.


Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #626 on: August 07, 2015, 11:49:43 am »
Thanks for the speed graphs - really interesting! :)

Looks like Miles has been following Godwin's mileage until recently, but has now fallen slightly behind.

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #627 on: August 07, 2015, 12:01:53 pm »
Yes, if you click on 'full year' at http://gicentre.org/oytt, you can see Miles's dip below Tommy's line emerging as Tommy began to lengthen his rides. At this rate of progress, within a few weeks, this will get to the stage of being an irrecoverable deficit. As I think Steve has found, Tommy's paced summer riding was prodigious and beyond the ability of unpaced riders. While he has had pretty poor winter weather, Miles has yet to demonstrate he has the speed in his legs to make sustained 215+ mile days.

Graeme

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Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #628 on: August 07, 2015, 06:56:36 pm »
Jo - looking at Steve's curve and ignoring the loss due to his broken ankle, would the curve still be within his plan? It looks like it would have been - which ought to be very encouraging for Steve. It almost looks like he'd be level with Kurt - but maybe my eyes deceive me.
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red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #629 on: August 08, 2015, 06:41:54 am »
Graeme - I think it's hard to tell as his strategy may well have been different without the broken ankle. If you transpose the bit of the curve from around 11th of May onwards, after which time Steve was doing the sort of miles he did pre-incident, that stays between his upper and lower schedules for just over two months but never quite catches up with Kurt. Since he has been easing off over the last few weeks, this would take him below schedule. Who knows whether the fatigue he talked about around the time of the Mersey 24 would have kicked in anyway.

One thing I think we have seen over the year is that Tommy's paced summer months with daily rides usually over 300 miles is really very very hard to match when there is little scope for recovery days. I think Kurt's steady-Eddy style looks like the best way of achieving the record.

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #630 on: August 08, 2015, 06:50:34 am »
Day 219: On the final day before his reboot, Steve does another Cambridgeshire loop via St Ives for a 122 mile total. Kurt battles with Wisconsin storms (and loses) giving him a slightly shorter than usual 170 miles. This places him just shy of Ossie Nicholson's 1933 record. Miles heads out east again for 159 miles.


Pancho

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Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #631 on: August 08, 2015, 08:16:32 am »
Apols if it's been asked and answered already - but how are you going to represent the reboot on your visualisations graphs? Start a new line "TG2" and add his miles to both the extant TG line and the new TG2?

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #632 on: August 08, 2015, 08:25:21 am »
Yes, pretty much. I'll be adding a line to the table below the chart too so we can keep track of both Steve's 2015 and 2015/16 progress.

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #633 on: August 09, 2015, 09:41:49 am »
Day 220 / 1: Steve reboots his attempt with a tidy 217 fenland loop via Spalding and King's Lynn. The OYTT chart now shows both his attempts - a thicker red line for the reboot, thinner one for the 2015 attempt. The table at the bottom of the page also shows progress of both concurrent attempts.

Kurt heads south from Manitowoc for 231 miles, passing Ossie Nicholson's 1933 record of 43,966 miles. Miles returns to doing a bay trip, this time for 129 miles.

Returning to day one for all challengers, Steve set off later but rode faster than his January 1st ride, but not yet matching Kurt's speed or Tommy's day one distance. But it's a good start, being 11 miles up on the required average distance per day.


Graeme

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Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #634 on: August 09, 2015, 06:37:47 pm »
Graeme - I think it's hard to tell as his strategy may well have been different without the broken ankle. If you transpose the bit of the curve from around 11th of May onwards, after which time Steve was doing the sort of miles he did pre-incident, that stays between his upper and lower schedules for just over two months but never quite catches up with Kurt. Since he has been easing off over the last few weeks, this would take him below schedule. Who knows whether the fatigue he talked about around the time of the Mersey 24 would have kicked in anyway.

One thing I think we have seen over the year is that Tommy's paced summer months with daily rides usually over 300 miles is really very very hard to match when there is little scope for recovery days. I think Kurt's steady-Eddy style looks like the best way of achieving the record.

Thank you Jo. Really appreciate this analysis.

Do you have capacity to perform a similar exercise for PBP next week? I understand the riders are all trackable... :)
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red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #635 on: August 10, 2015, 06:47:58 am »
Day 221 / 2: Kurt rides 220 miles from the south of the state back north towards Manitowoc. Steve does 214 miles in a Thetford Forest loop, putting him ahead of his January day two distance and passing Arthur Humbles' 1932 record. Miles does a return trip of the bay for 130 miles.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #636 on: August 11, 2015, 06:42:26 am »
Day 222 / 3: After a day of rain, Kurt heads west out of Manitowoc, this time with a day of headwind for a total of 210 miles. Steve rides north with the wind for 210 miles for a stop overnight in Goole. Miles does a couple of trips north of Melbourne for 170 miles.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #637 on: August 12, 2015, 06:53:36 am »
Day 223 / 4: On the day that Tommy Godwin's average exceeded his eventual 205.6 miles per day, both Steve and Kurt ride south for 228 miles placing them 46 and 811 miles ahead of that average pace respectively. Miles does one bay trip and then heads north out of Melbourne for 158 miles.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #638 on: August 13, 2015, 09:47:39 am »
Day 224 / 5: Kurt fits in a 3 hour stop for an appointment with a pulmonary specialist (diagnosis: some asthma but nothing serious) into a day's riding yet still manages a total of 194 miles. Steve fits in a stop to buy a backup front light in his tour de Cambridgeshire for a day's total of 211 miles. Miles takes the train north and rides back south to Melbourne though the night, 32 miles of which were within the 12th August.


Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #639 on: August 13, 2015, 10:34:59 am »
Thanks Jo, for the continuing graphics.  Really appreciate them as a quick way to overview the situation when I've been away from the laptop for a few days  :thumbsup:
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red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #640 on: August 14, 2015, 07:53:01 am »
Day 225 / 6: Kurt rides east with the wind from Wisconsin Rapids back to the lakeshore for 234 miles with an impressive 18 mph moving average. Steve does a couple of more local loops through Northants and Oxon pushing him a smidgen over one Godwin. Miles rides south from Shepparton to Melbourne after completing similar the previous night giving him 201 miles for the 24 hours of the 13th.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #641 on: August 15, 2015, 09:14:17 am »
Day 226 / 7: One week into his rebooted challenge Steve rides another 208 miles via Spalding to keep him 54 miles ahead of Tommy's WR pace. Kurt sticks to more local roads in the Egg Harbor region also for 208 miles and taking him past one-armed Walter Greaves' record distance of 45,383 miles for the year. Miles rides the bay a couple of times for 129 miles.


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Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #642 on: August 15, 2015, 12:19:16 pm »
Shouldn't that be "Miles rides the bay..."?
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red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #643 on: August 16, 2015, 07:37:50 am »
^----Yes, thanks. Now corrected (it's these early starts I tell you).

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #644 on: August 16, 2015, 07:51:19 am »
Day 227 / 8: Steve rides 201 miles south via Shrivenham to Newhaven to catch the ferry to France for his Paris-Brest-Paris ride tomorrow. This places his reboot attempt 49 miles above Tommy's WR pace and 220 miles ahead of his first attempt at this point. Miles rides the bay with an extra diversion thrown in to give him 172 miles for the day. William does a couple of rides today for 75 miles, making this his second highest daily total since he started the challenge.

Nothing posted from Kurt as yet.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #645 on: August 18, 2015, 09:58:55 am »
Day 228 / 9: Kurt rides 226 miles up to and along the lake shoreline. He now requires less than 200 miles per day for the remains of the year in order to beat Tommy's record. Steve disembarks from the ferry at Dieppe, rides down to Paris and starts riding west on the 2015 Paris-Brest-Paris. Hanging around at the start of PBP interrupts his day's riding a little, but he still manages to put in 195 miles before midnight. Miles does another 130 miles of bay riding.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #646 on: August 18, 2015, 10:00:06 am »
Day 229 / 10: Kurt rides south reversing his previous day's ride but this time facing headwinds and storms. He finishes the day with a 205 mile total. Steve continues his PBP ride making it to Carhaix before sleeping for a pretty continuous 261 miles within the 24 hours of the 17th. Miles sticks to Melbourne for only 14 miles of riding.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #647 on: August 19, 2015, 08:41:13 am »
Day 230 / 11: Kurt follows a meandering route to match the changing wind direction until rain stopped play, leaving him with a total of 210 miles for the day. After a comparatively long sleep stop by PBP standards, Steve rides from Carhaix to Brest and back then continues east for a sleep stop between Loudeac and Tinteniac for 192 miles. Miles rides 112 miles of the bay.


Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #648 on: August 20, 2015, 09:22:13 pm »
Day 228 / 9: Kurt rides 226 miles up to and along the lake shoreline. He now requires less than 200 miles per day for the remains of the year in order to beat Tommy's record.
Is Kurt trying to beat Tommy's total by 31/12/2015 or by 09/01/2016 (365 days after he started)? If the latter, Tommy's 1939 total may be greater than Kurt's 2015 total so Tommy would still hold the record for distance in a calendar year, even if Kurt takes the HAMR record. I think Kurt would need to average about 214 rather than 200 miles per day from now on to beat Tommy by the end of 2015 - perfectly possible.

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #649 on: August 21, 2015, 08:45:09 am »
Day 231 / 12: Kurt rides 221 miles north from central Wisconsin to the shoreline. Steve continues on the PBP riding 188 miles from west of Tinteniac towards Dreux, on schedule for a 90 hour finish. Miles rides along the bay with some extra diversions to give him a 221 mile total.