Author Topic: [HAMR] Visualizing the OYTT  (Read 169164 times)

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #700 on: September 14, 2015, 10:18:07 am »
Go Steve!

Wowbagger

  • Dez's butler
    • Musings of a Gentleman Cyclist
Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #701 on: September 14, 2015, 10:20:10 am »
I am puzzled, jo. Your graphs show Kurt to be behind Tommy's average speed. I thought he had pulled ahead of it some time ago. What am I missing?

Ah, I think I have answered that. The graph I was looking at was aimed at Steve's relaunch and showed only 40 or so days' riding. Kurt's line is historical data being compared to Steve's current data.
Oh, Bach without any doubt. Bach every time for me.

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #702 on: September 14, 2015, 11:44:03 am »
Indeed. If you go to the interactive version (http://gicentre.org/oytt) you can use the buttons to switch between year overview, Kurt and Steve's last few weeks or the reboot period. I'm mostly showing pics from the reboot period on this thread.

mattc

  • n.b. have grown beard since photo taken
    • Didcot Audaxes
Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #703 on: September 14, 2015, 02:51:25 pm »
I'm glad Wowbagger asked this - I was a little confused too!

I don't think there's any way round it, but it is _slightly_ misleading putting the lines together - we find ourselves comparing miles ridden in August/September against what others did in Jan/Feb (and against Steve's schedule for Jan/Feb - I think? I'm not even sure about that! ).

Apologies if I've just added to the confusion ...  ::-)
Has never ridden RAAM
---------
No.11  Because of the great host of those who dislike the least appearance of "swank " when they travel the roads and lanes. - From Kuklos' 39 Articles

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #704 on: September 14, 2015, 04:05:36 pm »
You can compare lines of the riders over the same period of time (i.e. Steve's September riding with Kurt's September riding) by selecting 'recent progress' button on http://gicentre.org/oytt The problem from a visual point of view is that Kurt and Steve are about 10,000 miles apart in terms of distance covered (and therefore vertical gap on the chart). As a result, if you scale the chart to see both lines, daily variation appears to be not very much and is quite difficult to build into anything approaching an interesting daily narrative:


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #705 on: September 15, 2015, 05:58:13 am »
Day 257 / 38: Kurt "Mr Consistent" Searvogel rides Little Rock roads for another 221 miles, keeping him 66 miles ahead of Tommy's total for the same period. Kurt's WR target is now back under 200 miles per day for the remains of the year. Steve has a day of battling fenland winds and finishes at 1:30am with 209 miles for the day. Miles continues to ride up and down the bay for a total of 139 miles, give or take a couple of dodgy GPS uploads to Strava.


SoreTween

  • Most of me survived the Pennine Bridleway.
Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #706 on: September 15, 2015, 08:49:49 am »
The main issue is now whether or not the 100,000 mile record is achievable by the end of July 2016; I haven't tried to work it out. What do you think, Jo?
I'll have a crack at that one if I may.

To get the 100k Steve needs RebootMiles + ExtraMiles >= 100,000
To get the record ExtraMiles must be completed in 500-365 days = 135 days.
Taking the 134 days up to and including 31 July Steve already has 20530.3 and that is with 2 days missing on HAMR and 12 days mileages still to be ridden.
Lets be pessimistic and assume UMCA reject the two late submissions and Steve stays in bed the rest of July.  Therefore ExtraMiles = 20530.3.
To achieve the 100k RebootMiles must therefore be >= 100,000 - 20530.3 = 79,469.7.

He may not go that far in the reboot.  As it stands he needs 75,066 but it looks likely Kurt will move that goalpost and Miles might do too.  Steve's original upper and lower plans were both > 80,000.  Time will tell but I think as things stand it looks likely that if Steve takes the year record he'll take the 100k too.
The official results are out covering the reboot so it's time to update this.
  • The rides that were missing in the daily spreadsheet were accepted my the UMCA.
  • ExtraMiles, Steve's total for the 134 days prior to his restart, is 19296.3.
  • Therefore for Steve to take the 100,000 record at the same time as the OYTT his RebootMiles would need to be 80703.7.
Steve can of course carry on after the OYTT just as Tommy did if he hasn't got 80703.7.  I'm only looking at what it would take for Steve to step off the bike on Aug 7th 2016 with both records broken.

Q. Why has ExtraMiles dropped so much?
A1. Because I'm an idiot.  I did not add up the 134 days to July 31 including 12 blank days, I added up the 134 days prior to the day of my post.
A2. 134 days prior to the reboot goes back to before the crash.  In the week or so prior to the crash Steve was doing far more miles than he was doing just before the reboot.

It'll be interesting to see what unfolds.  Carrying on past the year would be a far saner way to take the 100,000 record.  There's big gains to be made quite quickly because the 134 days includes the accident so 17 zero days and a lot of <100 days on the trike.  An extra week past the year could easily take a month off the record.
2019 targets: TINAT 160 rough
There is only one infinite resource in this universe; human stupidity.

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #707 on: September 16, 2015, 06:50:57 am »
Day 258 / 39: A long day for Kurt with 233 miles of riding from Little Rock, edging further ahead of Tommy's total for the same period. Steve heads to the Norfolk coast in changeable autumnal weather, ending at the Acle Travelodge with a 199 mile total. Miles logs only 43 miles riding bay roads, bringing him close to 12,000 miles since his restart.


Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #708 on: September 16, 2015, 07:43:39 am »
http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/data/hamr/byday.html

Here's the chart.

Steve's second start not displayed?

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #709 on: September 16, 2015, 07:52:13 am »
Nor is Miles's second attempt.

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #710 on: September 16, 2015, 08:47:46 pm »
300 miles beneath the Godwin line.  He needs 20 days like yesterday to get back up to matching it.  Tough times ahead.



Jo with your magical charts how many days or rather weeks would you say Steve will take to catch up on his lost miles due to PBP lurgy!   I had hoped that with 220 mls a day (few and far between) it would be by the end of Sept but guess it is going to be well into October.  wot say your computer predictions?
Thanks for all your tremendous work.
 :thumbsup:

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #711 on: September 16, 2015, 10:55:05 pm »
If by 'catch up' you mean get back to WR pace, I'd say early November based on progress in the last couple of weeks:



He is currently about 300 miles below pace and has averaged 211.4 mpd over the last two weeks. That gains him 5.8 mpd over WR pace, therefore taking him about 52 days to gain those 300 miles.

There is of course, lots of uncertainty. He might have a few good days that could gain him a week. But what makes this a challenge so hard is that a single day of no riding would set him back over a month. It's the bad days he's got to look out for.

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #712 on: September 17, 2015, 06:41:42 am »
Jo thanks very much for your figures.  I also feared it could be November before he is back on track.  let's all hope he can manage to average highly mileage days to help him.  keep up all good work as it's much appreciated
 :thumbsup:

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #713 on: September 17, 2015, 07:37:45 am »
Day 259 / 40: Kurt stated that after his long day yesterday, today would be a recovery day of 'only' 205 miles. In the event, he posts 139 miles of riding on his regular local roads. This still keeps him with a target of less than 200 miles per day for the remains of the year, but he dips below Tommy's riding for the first time. Steve's shrewd anticipation of the changeable weather gives him a wind advantage but very wet day from north Norfolk back to MK for a total of 213 miles. Miles posts another short day 44 miles.


Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #714 on: September 17, 2015, 11:46:29 am »
Steve has a day of battling fenland winds

Things would be so much easier for Steve if someone could pick him up in a car when he faces huge headwinds, and drive him (overnight?) to a place where the wind is more, err, friendly. I'm probably asking for too much  ::-)

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #715 on: September 17, 2015, 12:13:55 pm »
Steve has a day of battling fenland winds

Things would be so much easier for Steve if someone could pick him up in a car when he faces huge headwinds, and drive him (overnight?) to a place where the wind is more, err, friendly. I'm probably asking for too much  ::-)

No, but I think you are asking for something that Steve himself doesn't want :).

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #716 on: September 17, 2015, 06:17:41 pm »
Steve has a day of battling fenland winds

Things would be so much easier for Steve if someone could pick him up in a car when he faces huge headwinds, and drive him (overnight?) to a place where the wind is more, err, friendly. I'm probably asking for too much  ::-)






that has been investigated but the loss of time travelling (without a proper sleep) ) doesn't work out.  and az mentioned Steve doesn't want this

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #717 on: September 17, 2015, 07:46:05 pm »
Quote
Things would be so much easier for Steve if someone could pick him up in a car when he faces huge headwinds, and drive him (overnight?) to a place where the wind is more, err, friendly. I'm probably asking for too much  ::-)

the day before the moped incident he did a 350km ride into a horrendous headwind, finishing at 3am and set off again at 6am..........

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #718 on: September 17, 2015, 08:44:17 pm »
Actually some 244 miles I think.  The fated day of just some 26 could well have been a real mile eating day with tail wind to Lowestoft i think was on the plans
sadly he is between 33 and 55 days approx before he is back on track of averaging the minimum of 206 per day.
I am so very surprised that he didn't know what he'd averaged since restart.  This is not good not good a tall!

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #719 on: September 17, 2015, 09:26:20 pm »

he didn't know what he'd averaged since restart

A sign of Steve's involvement with the task being on a higher plane than having perpetual thoughts about the totals, perhaps?

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #720 on: September 18, 2015, 05:52:35 am »
Day 260 / 41: Alicia reports that she and Kurt have come down with illness again, but despite this Kurt rides a fast 217 miles south of Little Rock to bring him back within 20 miles of Tommy's like-for-like total. Steve puts in 220 miles on a Cambridgeshire-Essex loop. He is now less than a day away from Ossie Nicholson's 1933 record. No ride posted from Miles.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #721 on: September 19, 2015, 07:47:34 am »
Day 261 / 42: Another long day of Little Rock roads for Kurt – 226 miles – puts him just 16 miles behind Tommy's distance over the same period. Steve heads to the Wash and back for 220 miles, passing Ossie Nicholson's 1933 record of 43,966 miles. No ride posted from Miles for the second day running.


HTFB

  • The Monkey and the Plywood Violin (RIP)
Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #722 on: September 19, 2015, 11:02:48 am »
At current progress Original Steve looks to be on course to pass Bernard Bennett and so everybody except TG and Kurt, barring incident or lurgy. (I don't want even to speculate on his chance of managing an incident- and lurgy-free final quarter, for fear of the jinx.)

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #723 on: September 20, 2015, 06:48:05 am »
Day 262 / 43: Kurt heads south for a day punctuated with flat tyres, a broken rear wheel and rain giving him a 209 mile total. Steve does a 235 mile loop via the Wash in good cycling weather – his longest day's distance since PBP. Miles is back doing repeats of the northern section of the Port Phillip bay road for 164 miles.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #724 on: September 20, 2015, 07:29:46 am »
On September 16th I suggested that Steve might get back to WR pace in early November. This was based on him, at the time, doing about 210 miles per day. In the last three days he has averaged 225 miles per day. It's interesting to see how he's done that.

Here is his progress from 7th-15th September. The grey dashed line represents a standard speed (gradient of line) and distance (length of line) for comparison. Over this period, his average speed has remained pretty constant, with the exception of a slow day 38 (14th September). You can see where he stops for lunch as the little dip about a third of the way along each day.




In the last four days, he's cut right down on lunch stop time, with no kink visible on his daily progress lines. This is closer to Kurt's riding strategy. Yesterday was notable in that he combined lack of long stops with a higher than usual moving speed to give him his big daily distance.



If he were to be able to keep this up for a while, he'll make good progress on the WR schedule, hitting WR pace around the 1st of October.