Author Topic: [HAMR] Visualizing the OYTT  (Read 170974 times)

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #725 on: September 20, 2015, 03:31:15 pm »
He must have fitted a sausage box on his bars.

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #726 on: September 20, 2015, 07:54:47 pm »
Tink it twas helium knickers who suggested (very sensible) that he trim his long long lunch break to just 30 mins and well glad he has taken note.
.

 :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #727 on: September 21, 2015, 05:28:17 am »
Day 263 / 44: A less eventful day for Kurt as he sticks mostly to local Little Rock roads and knocks off another 217 miles. He's currently just 34 miles behind Tommy's like-for-like distance. Steve's strategy of cutting back on stopped time and increasing his average speed pays off with another 235 mile day as he figure-of-eights his way through Cambridgeshire and Norfolk. This takes him within 40 miles of Kurt's equivalent day 44 distance and around 200 miles behind WR pace. Miles also appears to be changing strategy with faster riding as he keeps to the northern half of the Port Phillip Bay road, although only for 85 miles. He's now around 7,200 miles behind WR pace.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #728 on: September 22, 2015, 06:04:52 am »
Day 264 / 45: A good day for Kurt as he clocks up another 225 miles with a trip out east to Lenoke followed by repeats on his local roads. He remains around 30 miles behind Tommy's like-for-like distance and about 199 miles per day required for the WR by the end of his year. Steve rides north to the Humber before bedding down for the night at the Doncaster Travelodge for a total of 214 miles. His 2015 attempt now requires around 300 mpd, his rebooted attempt, 206 mpd. Miles rides 88 miles of his bay route. He now requires 233 mpd for the record.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #729 on: September 23, 2015, 05:29:19 am »
Day 265 / 46: Kurt rides a loop out to the east before returning to home roads for an afternoon of riding with others for a day's total of 225 miles. This puts him around 760 miles ahead of WR pace and 35 behind Tommy's like-for-like distance. 100 days to go until the end of the 2015 attempt for Steve (and 319 days until the end of his rebooted attempt). He returns from Doncaster to MK via Peterborough on a 230 mile route putting him ahead of Kurt's like-for-like total and within 175 miles of WR pace. No substantial ride posted from Miles. Taking his average daily distance to date, Miles' end of year projection is currently around 46,600 miles.


hillbilly

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #730 on: September 23, 2015, 10:46:10 am »
I am losing track of how well Steve is doing under Attempt 2 compared to Kurt due to the different start dates.  The current pictures give a somewhat distorted picture, as my gut feel is that Steve is not actually doing that well compared to Kurt (or at least compared to what he will need to do given winter).

Is there an accumulated figure for Steve compared to Kurt on days when they were both riding and, for the purpose of "getting a feel for the state of play" when Steve was "healthy" (i.e. omitting the days from the moped collision and the start of Attempt 2).  Might give an idea of what the winter miles could (if his attempt 1 were replicated) do to Steve's progress?

Just a thought.  As I say, I'm struggling to get a sense for how Steve is doing against what he "needs" to do, rather than what he has done.

Martin

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Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #731 on: September 23, 2015, 10:51:36 am »
It's good to see Kurt back chipping away at his required minimum; being back on his Manor and with company on rides seems to help, he clearly wasn't enjoying being up North over the summer.

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #732 on: September 23, 2015, 10:55:54 am »
jo, loving the visualisations, much better than my efforts with Google Sheets. Could I ask a quick question though. looking at my data (https://goo.gl/RBHtiS) I make Kurt 97.5 miles behind Tommy's like-for-like distance, and Steve (reboot version) 38.9 miles up on Kurt following yesterdays ride. I was wondering what accounts for the difference in our distances.

I've been taking mine from the completed daily distances on Strava, but updating them with the distances from the UMCA spread sheet (on http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/data/hamr/official_results/). I suspect that your distances are all from Strava, and suspect that this is the answer.

I'm loving following this on the maths side, and need to do more on the stats side to try and improve my projections of distance for it.

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #733 on: September 23, 2015, 12:04:17 pm »
I am losing track of how well Steve is doing under Attempt 2 compared to Kurt due to the different start dates.  The current pictures give a somewhat distorted picture, as my gut feel is that Steve is not actually doing that well compared to Kurt (or at least compared to what he will need to do given winter).

If we assume that Steve's January16-March16 yields the exact same mileage as January 15-March15, he'll bag 16834.2 miles - I've used the HAM'R tables in those 87 days (193.4 per day).

Since his reboot he's clocked 9050.4 miles in 45 days (201.1 per day).  Adding those together gives 25884.6 from 132 days.

If Kurt carries on at the present overall average rate of progress, he's on target for 76150 which would be the new record (though this is including his blips and illnesses - an illnessless run to the flag could see quite a bit more, but on the flipside...)  If that's considered the new target, Steve's remaining 233 days would need to yield 50265.4 miles - an average of 215.7 per day.  Of course, we've got to expect that the November15-December15 will be harder than now (though probably easier than January-March).  Steve is showing us at the moment what kind of mileages he is able to knock out in springy/summery weather, which bodes well for his home straight of April16-August16.

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #734 on: September 23, 2015, 01:02:44 pm »
I am losing track of how well Steve is doing under Attempt 2 compared to Kurt due to the different start dates.  The current pictures give a somewhat distorted picture, as my gut feel is that Steve is not actually doing that well compared to Kurt (or at least compared to what he will need to do given winter).

The difficulty is that there is no obvious way of making a complete comparison. The charts I have been mostly showing recently on this thread (including this morning), make that comparison by standardising against the number of days since the start of the official record for each. It has the advantage in that it helps to equalise what each has yet to do (e.g. both have  319 days of the challenge left in which differences in daily distances will play out, even if we happen to know how a significant chunk of Kurt's riding develops). It also has the advantage of allowing direct comparison between Steve's reboot with his original attempt for the same period of time.

The alternative of comparing by absolute date rather than number of days ridden can be seen by unticking 'Common start times' on the interactive version. For today, this gives the following:



This gives a better picture of the differences (and similarities) of the day-by-day distances of the riders, but tells us less about how well they are doing with respect to the record (e.g. while Kurt is further ahead of Tommy's WR pace, he also has far less time left in the challenge to make up any deficits or extend his lead). This day-by-day difference is what I have been trying to emphasise in the text accompanying these daily reports on this thread. To see how those differences are accumulating, we can zoom in a little, still showing absolute dates rather than days ridden:



In the last week or so, Steve has been gaining on Kurt, but by a relatively small amount, so it's barely detectable on the graph (vertical distance of separation between the red and blue lines). The longer term trends are keeping them pretty evenly matched. The differences tend to emerge with those more occasional bad days when we see one or other of them dropping downwards a considerable distance.

Is there an accumulated figure for Steve compared to Kurt on days when they were both riding and, for the purpose of "getting a feel for the state of play" when Steve was "healthy" (i.e. omitting the days from the moped collision and the start of Attempt 2).  Might give an idea of what the winter miles could (if his attempt 1 were replicated) do to Steve's progress?

That figure depends when you start counting. But if we take distance since 8th August (Steve's reboot date), Steve has ridden about 9,290 miles and Kurt about 9,480 – a difference of about 190 miles in Kurt's favour. But in the scheme of things, this is nothing, and gives us little clue as to who is more likely to end up with the record. I don't think the differences are sufficient to say that either rider will be able to put the record out of reach for the other. Steve now has the advance of starting later in the year so has more scope to adapt to whatever Kurt does in the remaining 100 days or so. But of course that carries extra risk in that we know that unanticipated problems can radically change the state of play.


As I say, I'm struggling to get a sense for how Steve is doing against what he "needs" to do, rather than what he has done.

My charts are an attempt to put the "what he needs to do" at the front of the design. It's all about keeping above that thick black 0 line. You can pencil in another line about 1000 miles or so above Tommy's line in anticipation of Kurt accumulating 76k miles or so in his 365 days, but even at this stage in the year, it's pretty much guesswork. Most of us thought at the start of the year that what the riders 'needed' to do was to flow with the seasons, allowing a deficit to accumulate over winder to be paid off with a large accumulation of miles over summer. We now know that this wasn't really sustainable and that a slow, steady accumulation of >206 mpd rides is more achievable.


@MrDream All of the above is indeed based on the Strava submissions and I haven't corrected for any UMCA altered distances for the last three months or so. That would probably explain the small differences we are getting (e.g. I currently have Steve about 33 miles ahead of Kurt's like-for-like distance in their first 46 days), but I don't think it yet affects the overall picture. When I have some time, I will make those minor adjustments with UMCA's official distances.

hillbilly

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #735 on: September 23, 2015, 03:19:50 pm »
Thanks.  I should have said your charts are still my only reference point for understanding what's going on, and remain very elegant and extremely useful!

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #736 on: September 24, 2015, 06:46:24 am »
Day 266 / 47: Kurt has to cut his day a little short at 172 miles because of heart issues that need careful attention (unexpected elevated heart rate and, after examination, confirmed atrial fibrillation). His heart rate subsequently returned to normal, but he and Alicia are evaluating whether he will need some recovery time or change in strategy.

Steve complets a 208 mile loop through Cambridgeshire, putting him within a day of Walter Greaves' 1936 record. Miles is back to longer distances with a 178 mile day north of Melbourne.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #737 on: September 25, 2015, 05:50:30 am »
Day 267 / 48: Kurt starts late after an eventful day of heart issues, but he keeps up his high average speed on local roads to complete 189 miles. He remains around 710 miles above WR pace and less than a day's riding behind Tommy's like-for-like distance. Steve rides out to the Norfolk coast passing Walter Greaves's 1936 record with 220 miles for the day. Miles returns to riding repeats of the northern section of the bay for a 162 mile total.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #738 on: September 26, 2015, 06:56:41 am »
Day 268 / 49: Kurt's speed appears unaffected by his recent heart diagnosis as he manages to fit 212 miles of Little Rock riding around an appointment with the cardiologist. Steve sticks to north Norfolk with a 205 mile loop from the Acle Travelodge, putting him within a day of Bernard Bennett's 1937 record. Miles rides up and down the bay for a 184 mile total.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #739 on: September 26, 2015, 07:04:52 am »
Here are September's movement charts for Kurt, Steve and Miles.

Looking at the last three days of Kurt's riding (bottom three rows of the blue chart), you can see just how determined a rider he is. Heart problems spotted in the afternoon of the 23rd cuts the ride short. A late night with no riding as his AF is diagnosed. A late start on the 24th, but he rides nevertheless. And most impressively, an early start on the 25th to make up for a few hours lost around midday to visit the cardiologist.

Steve's September movement chart shows his switch in strategy from the 16th onwards, cutting out the longer stops during the day.






red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #740 on: September 27, 2015, 07:26:47 am »
Day 269 / 50: Kurt heads southward to the Arkansas-Texas border at the well-named Texarkana. To add to the events of this week, he has "a little crash today - feeling battered up", yet still manages 208 miles. Steve, on day 50 of his reboot, rides back to MK while passing the 10,000 milestone and Bernard Bennett's 1937 record of 45,801 miles. Miles continues to get familiar with the Port Phillip coastal road for a 161 mile day.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #741 on: September 28, 2015, 05:45:59 am »
Day 270 /51: Kurt rides back north from Texarkana towards Little Rock, nursing the road rash and bumps from yesterday's pothole induced off and adding 205 miles to his total. Steve does a Cambridgeshire loop via Ely for 219 miles putting him 758 miles ahead of his like-for-like February self. Miles does 3 repeats of the northern part of the bay road for 176 miles.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #742 on: September 29, 2015, 05:53:48 am »
Day 271 / 52: A day of familiar routes for all three riders. Kurt heads out east followed by repeats on his local roads to give him a day's total of 220 miles. Steve does a 207 mile Cambridgeshire loop. Miles does several repeats of the northern section of the bay road for 235 miles. As the Melbourne weather eases, he now appears to be completing longer distances after a fallow period but has a long way to catch up to WR pace.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #743 on: September 30, 2015, 06:30:49 am »
Day 272 / 53: A late start, some wet weather, a couple of punctures and a terminal problem for his recumbent all make interesting times for Kurt. Nevertheless he rides fast for a total of 212 miles. Steve does 215 miles of Cambridgeshire and Suffolk in good early autumn weather. Miles does a couple more bay trips for 126 miles.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #744 on: October 01, 2015, 06:12:27 am »
Day 273 / 54: Kurt does one Godwin (plus another 100m for luck) on his usual route at a slightly slower speed than usual. With 101 days to go he is a good buffer of 740 miles ahead of WR pace and around 200 miles behind Tommy's like-for-like distance. October was the last month in which Tommy was making substantial gains over his average pace; in his final couple of months he began to ease off his long daily distances. Steve consolidates his September distance with another 210 mile loop through Cambridgeshire and Suffolk. Miles rides through the night and on into the day on familiar bay roads for 212 miles.


Justin(e)

  • On my way out of here
Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #745 on: October 01, 2015, 03:48:47 pm »
Jo
I am constantly impressed by the amount of quality work you put out consistently.
Thanks

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #746 on: October 02, 2015, 06:17:08 am »
Day 274 / 55: Kurt rides 211 miles south to the Louisiana border. Steve keeps up his recent pattern of Cambridgeshire/Suffolk loops for one Godwin's worth of riding. Likewise Miles does the northern section of the bay for 189 miles.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #747 on: October 04, 2015, 08:41:20 am »
Day 275 / 56: Kurt rides south from LR towards the Louisiana border again, squeezing in 211 miles and a marriage proposal to Alicia into the day. Steve and Miles follow a similar pattern to previous days completing a 205 mile loop and 180 mile back and forth respectively.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #748 on: October 04, 2015, 08:42:01 am »
Day 276 / 57: Kurt finds a fast stretch of road, east of Hope heading to El Dorado, and rides it four times at a moving average of over 20mph and a day's total of 163 miles. Steve rides up to Wisbech and back for 218 miles. Miles continues around the bay accumulating 173 miles today.


Wowbagger

  • Dez's butler
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Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #749 on: October 04, 2015, 07:51:12 pm »
I believe there may be a typo in reply #749, unless Steve average about 800mph!  ;)
Oh, Bach without any doubt. Bach every time for me.