Author Topic: [HAMR] Visualizing the OYTT  (Read 169795 times)

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #475 on: May 01, 2015, 07:51:25 pm »
For the moment I'm not going to add a revised schedule to the chart because we don't know how or if Steve would progress to a schedule required to make the record (e.g. start ramping up now? keep it at 100 mpd now then put in super-long days in July? keep the summer schedule through the winter?).

I have added a bit more info to the table at the bottom of the OYTT page though. It now includes Tommy's average miles per day as of the current point in the year. I've also added the minimum target miles per day required by all riders just to reach 75,065 miles by the end of their year. That should make it a little clearer what they would need to achieve as the year progresses.

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #476 on: May 03, 2015, 07:08:32 am »
Day 121: 229 miles of Mississippi coastal loops on the 'bent for Kurt bring him close to Miles's pace. Steve continues to ride the Bowl, this time for his longest one legged day so far of 114 miles.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #477 on: May 03, 2015, 07:11:57 am »
Day 122: Kurt rides 208 miles back to Natchez. Steve does the Bowl again, this time for 101 miles. Miles takes the train north to Albury and begins the ride back to Melbourne.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #478 on: May 03, 2015, 06:46:25 pm »
Probably nothing new to most who have been following this thread, but I've posted a blog article on some of the design principles behind these charts:

http://www.gicentre.net/blog/2015/5/3/visualizing-a-record-too-hard-to-break

ianrauk

  • Tattooed Beat Messiah
Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #479 on: May 03, 2015, 08:52:40 pm »
Thanks Jo. A very interesting read

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #480 on: May 04, 2015, 05:27:20 am »
Day 123: Kurt's 222 mile ride north through Mississippi puts him closer to Tommy's WR pace than Miles for the first time. Steve ventures out from the Bowl for 90 miles, twice taking in Marsh Gibbon.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #481 on: May 05, 2015, 06:42:00 am »
Day 124: Kurt's has a slightly shorter day of 158 miles heading back towards Little Rock while Steve rides his longest post-crash day yet of 117 miles round the Bowl. Miles continue up and down the bay.


Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #482 on: May 05, 2015, 08:10:57 am »
Probably nothing new to most who have been following this thread, but I've posted a blog article on some of the design principles behind these charts:

http://www.gicentre.net/blog/2015/5/3/visualizing-a-record-too-hard-to-break

Jo, you are the best!! I reckon Steve will certainly have to write a book after the end of this amazing adventure, and Jo's work will be a major element of this book!

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #483 on: May 06, 2015, 11:31:06 pm »
Day 125: Another 220+ mile day for Kurt, this time back home in Little Rock. This edges him a little further ahead of Miles's 160 miles. Steve does 96 miles of revolutions around the MK Bowl as he continues to build back the strength in his broken ankle.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #484 on: May 07, 2015, 06:19:56 am »
Day 126: Another long day for Kurt around Little Rock, this time for 234 miles. Miles rides from Warrnambool to Melbourne for 184 miles continuing his recent trend in daily distance. Steve rides the bowl for 110 miles keeping his challenge alive.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #485 on: May 09, 2015, 07:03:58 am »
Day 127: Steve fits in a hospital visit between two trips round the bowl for 84 miles of riding. Kurt piles on 226 miles in Little Rock. Miles heads east to Stratford for a 160 mile day.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #486 on: May 09, 2015, 07:41:39 am »
Day 128: Stave makes his first trike trip away from home since the crash, heading east for 115 miles in preparation for Saturday's 400km audax. Kurt has one of his longer days clocking up an impressive 242 miles on the roads of Little Rock. Miles makes another trip east to Stratford before heading out along the bay.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #487 on: May 10, 2015, 11:47:15 pm »
Day 129: Steve completes the first half of the 400km Asparagus and Strawberries audax through Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk to give him 186 miles on the trike for the day (and first half of the night). Kurt continues on familiar roads near Little Rock  for 216 while Miles does the bay for a day.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #488 on: May 11, 2015, 06:27:05 am »
Day 130: A long day in Little Rock for Kurt at 251 miles. Steve completes his 400k Audax then rides back home from Manningtree giving him 206 miles for the day. Miles rides east to Sale before doing some more bay for a total of 158 miles.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #489 on: May 12, 2015, 09:08:12 am »
Day 131: 202 miles of Little Rock riding for Kurt and 210 miles for Miles. Steve has a late start to the day with just a short 19 mile loop to the west of MK.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #490 on: May 14, 2015, 09:33:28 am »
Day 132: A problem with Kurt's GPS log means he was unable to register his ride for the day. Miles rides with the wind east to Bairnsdale for 200 miles before doing some more bay. Steve, back on two wheels, rides 101 miles of Bucks roads including some Marsh Gibbon visits.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #491 on: May 14, 2015, 09:33:46 am »
Day 133: Kurt, Steve and Miles continue to ride the roads from their home towns logging 233, 150 and 130 miles respectively. Looking at the year's progress it is clear how tough this record attempt is. All riders (including Tommy Godwin at this stage) have been slipping from the WR pace. The consistency required to beat it will be the main challenge for all riders in the coming months.


Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #492 on: May 14, 2015, 06:52:55 pm »
Has anyone mentioned this?

Miles’ local climate is 6 months staggered from GB, so he is effectively starting in Autumn.
The ‘target’ plots on the chart are based on a British year with winter for the first three months and then spring, giving the cyclists a chance to regain lost distance and then put on some through summer and then stabilizing in autumn up to the end of the year.

Miles’ ‘Target’ lines should be slightly upwards, dipping and then rising sharply around Christmas. His ‘Actual’ is going the wrong way.

mattc

  • n.b. have grown beard since photo taken
    • Didcot Audaxes
Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #493 on: May 14, 2015, 07:39:26 pm »
Has anyone mentioned this?

Miles’ local climate is 6 months staggered from GB, so he is effectively starting in Autumn.
The ‘target’ plots on the chart are based on a British year with winter for the first three months and then spring, giving the cyclists a chance to regain lost distance and then put on some through summer and then stabilizing in autumn up to the end of the year.

Miles’ ‘Target’ lines should be slightly upwards, dipping and then rising sharply around Christmas. His ‘Actual’ is going the wrong way.
That's a good observation. But I disagree with your conclusions.

For one thing, the target lines are wholy dependent on the riders' individual strategies. Hence setting the x-axis to a perfect "even" pace was the only logical choice.
It's also flawed to describe any climate as just being "England + n months". Too many other variables (e.g. Florida and parts of Oz will be too hot for 200-mile days in peak local summer).
Then there is Miles' crazy sleep patterns!

All opinion of course - time will shine light on all this ...
Has never ridden RAAM
---------
No.11  Because of the great host of those who dislike the least appearance of "swank " when they travel the roads and lanes. - From Kuklos' 39 Articles

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #494 on: May 15, 2015, 06:22:07 am »
Day 134: Very wet weather for Steve who, despite the rain, manages 101 miles on his Raleigh. Kurt keeps up his pace with 205 Little Rock miles. Miles follows recent patterns by riding east with the wind then returning by train for a ride along part of the bay for a 162 mile day.


Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #495 on: May 15, 2015, 10:32:52 am »
Has anyone mentioned this?

Miles’ local climate is 6 months staggered from GB, so he is effectively starting in Autumn.
The ‘target’ plots on the chart are based on a British year with winter for the first three months and then spring, giving the cyclists a chance to regain lost distance and then put on some through summer and then stabilizing in autumn up to the end of the year.

Miles’ ‘Target’ lines should be slightly upwards, dipping and then rising sharply around Christmas. His ‘Actual’ is going the wrong way.
That's a good observation. But I disagree with your conclusions.

For one thing, the target lines are wholy dependent on the riders' individual strategies. Hence setting the x-axis to a perfect "even" pace was the only logical choice.
It's also flawed to describe any climate as just being "England + n months". Too many other variables (e.g. Florida and parts of Oz will be too hot for 200-mile days in peak local summer).
Then there is Miles' crazy sleep patterns!

All opinion of course - time will shine light on all this ...

Melbourne's weather is pretty mild all year round.  It would not be surprising for it to be warmer in Melbourne June/July/August than London.   

Here's the observations from Portsea (at the far end of his regular ride).   Only 8 days a year above 30, in the depths of winter it's still averaging 7-13C.   

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/cvg/av?p_stn_num=086097&p_prim_element_index=0&p_comp_element_index=0&redraw=null&p_display_type=full_statistics_table&normals_years=1961-1990&tablesizebutt=normal

Melbourne itself would be a bit warmer than this, but if I sticks to the bay he'll be getting close to these conditions.

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #496 on: May 16, 2015, 07:56:04 am »
Day 135: A similar pattern to previous days from all three riders, Kurt: 233 Little Rock miles, Steve: 114 miles into Essex and Miles: 167 miles east out of Melbourne. Steve edges closer to the 20,000 mile mark, placing him about a month behind Kurt and two and half weeks behind Tommy (which is about the same length of time Steve was completely off the bike).


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #497 on: May 17, 2015, 08:56:18 am »
Day 136: A familiar pattern for Kurt and Miles - up and down the roads of Little Rock and Port Phillip Bay. Kurt is constantly riding further each day, so Miles will have to change his strategy if he has any chance of the record. Steve meanwhile completed the first half of the Flatlanders 600 audax helpers' ride from Essex up to Goole.


TimC

  • Bike pilot
Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #498 on: May 17, 2015, 09:35:13 am »
No news about Kurt's lost data from the other day?

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #499 on: May 17, 2015, 02:37:06 pm »
I think it was the ride on the 12th May he had the issue with. It's now up on Strava so the issue must have been resolved.

https://www.strava.com/activities/304280607

Seems to be another short transfer on this activity 15th May (78km in of about 6.3km) although Garmin Connect shows correct distance

https://www.strava.com/activities/305310843/analysis/2603/287

https://connect.garmin.com/modern/activity/775453932