Author Topic: [HAMR] Visualizing the OYTT  (Read 171690 times)

hillbilly

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #825 on: November 09, 2015, 08:10:07 pm »
I'm doing all my cycling training in the garage. I'll be cycling outside again next year.

Provided you cycle one Godwin of virtual miles a day, we won't judge you  :)

zigzag

  • unfuckwithable
Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #826 on: November 09, 2015, 09:02:21 pm »
<...>
I can sort of, possibly, maybe, perhaps, imagine getting to a place when 320km a day isn't physically too demanding but the mental aspect of banging out the miles, relentlessly, in the dark, is totally beyond me. 
I have always struggled, and always will struggle, to get any enjoyment out of riding dull miles in the cold & dark.

Amazing stuff Steve... Keep on going mate.

there needs to be (enormous amounts of) motivation, burning desire, willpower, persistence.  we can't really compare ourselves to Steve and Kurt as we can't see the world from their perspective. keep going Steve, keep going Kurt (nearly there!!)!

thank you Jo for this wonderful thread!

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #827 on: November 09, 2015, 09:57:22 pm »
thank you Jo for this wonderful thread!

+1  :thumbsup: brilliant

GO STEVE!

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #828 on: November 11, 2015, 07:31:49 am »
Day 313 / 94: Kurt rides east along the coast into Alabama being on much better form that the previous tough day, accumulating 215 miles. Steve also rides east with the benefit of a blustery autumn tailwind. He continues for 194 miles until he runs out of east, spending the night in Lowestoft. Miles is back to long rides, doing a couple of trips to Seymour to the north with 185 miles for the day.




red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #829 on: November 11, 2015, 07:32:01 am »
Day 314 / 95: Kurt rides loops along the coast around Orange Beach flirting with the Florida border and a total of 207 miles for the day. Steve faces the prospect of returning west from Lowestoft into a day of strong headwinds, eventually getting back to Milton Keynes with 181 miles covered. Miles rides another trip up north for 120 miles.


Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #830 on: November 11, 2015, 11:23:54 am »
Good morning Jo. With the wet and windy weather of late,  how many days away is Steve away from the 206 mls average since the 8th August restart?

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #831 on: November 11, 2015, 11:54:55 am »
Arry-R, you can tell from the graph that Steve finished yesterday's ride about 90 miles behind the Godwin Line. 

If Steve were to get back to doing 210m days (4.34 miles more than the Godwin average), that would take him 90/4.34 = 21 days to catch back up.  If Steve were to do 215m days (9.34m more than the Godwin average), that would take him 90/9.34 = 10 days to catch back up.  With 220m days, he'd be back to the Godwin line within a week. 

Obviously over the past two days he has come up 25 and 12 miles short respectively, so he is currently having a little bit of slippage - carrying forward this rate of progress would only result in slipping further behind.  Hopefully the unhelpful weather will pass and allow Steve to eke out the mileage in the coming days.

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #832 on: November 11, 2015, 12:40:47 pm »
Furthermore, it seems that, now Kurt has just 60 days to run, it is possible to project a prediction for where the Searvogel Line could end up.  At best, one could take Kurt's consistent and impressive run from day 116 to day 220 to extract an average of 219.8mpd.  Adding 60 times this to his current 63066 gives a year-end total of 76255, for a 1190-mile beating of the Godwin record, setting the Searvogel Line at 208.9mpd.  Of course, even on good days Kurt isn't quite doing 219.8mpd at the moment, so it is probably appropriate to ignore any 'finishing sprint effect' and consider this an upper limit on what is now achievable.

hillbilly

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #833 on: November 11, 2015, 01:00:05 pm »
An upper limit of 1190 miles about Tommy's figure.  Less than 3 miles a day.  Damn, this challenge is a cruel mistress.

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #834 on: November 11, 2015, 03:16:03 pm »
Legs many thanks for your posting - much appreciated.
 :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

Wowbagger

  • Dez's butler
    • Musings of a Gentleman Cyclist
Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #835 on: November 11, 2015, 06:29:53 pm »
I would not be in the least surprised if Kurt, once he passes Godwin, has a rest and takes it fairly easy for the last few days after the record has gone. The objective is taking the World Record, and he has a great chance of doing that now (with all the usual provisos). Having said that, his decidedly fed up mental state of a week or two ago seems to have gone. He could well feel extremely upbeat once he's done it and put in a massive finish. Who knows? Top class competitors in any field do as much damage to an opponent's chances as they possibly can.
Oh, Bach without any doubt. Bach every time for me.

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #836 on: November 11, 2015, 06:42:39 pm »
I would not be in the least surprised if Kurt, once he passes Godwin, has a rest and takes it fairly easy for the last few days after the record has gone.

I would. His average over the last 28 days has been 198.7 mpd. If he were to continue that for the remains of the challenge, he will hit the Godwin line on the very last day of his year (9th Jan 2016). Maybe his average will go up as he hits the Florida home straight, but unless something [even more] remarkable happens, he will be hitting the Godwin line in the last day or two of the challenge. Even if he managed an incredible 220 mpd for the next two months, he still be in the last week when he crosses the Godwin line.

simonp

  • Omnomnomnipotent.
Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #837 on: November 11, 2015, 06:46:58 pm »
That nicely illustrates how far away Kurt still is from bagging it.

marcusjb

  • Full of bon courage.
    • Occasional wittering
Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #838 on: November 11, 2015, 07:04:00 pm »
Truly amazing and I can not imagine the pressure Kurt is now really under.
Right! What's next?

Ooooh. That sounds like a daft idea.  I am in!

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #839 on: November 11, 2015, 09:55:54 pm »
I rather think he thrives on that pressure, just doesn't like the wind and the rain.

Hope he settles down to his regular 220+ mpd now he is back in the Sunshine State.

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #840 on: November 12, 2015, 09:34:31 am »
Day 315 / 96: Kurt rides Pensacola Beach surrounded by white sand and blue sea for a reported 226 miles (although nothing uploaded to Strava yet). Steve has a longer than usual day riding a figure of eight through the counties of SE England and accumulating 246 miles. This takes him back to within 50 miles of WR pace after a week with some shorter windy days. Miles heads out west to Warrnambool for 160 miles.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #841 on: November 12, 2015, 04:45:02 pm »
There was a request for the OYTT Eddington Numbers of the three riders on one of the other threads, so here they are with a graphical summary:





(Both Steve's and Miles's charts include all rides in 2015, not just their most recent rebooted attempt)

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #842 on: November 12, 2015, 04:48:46 pm »
'Twas I, and whilst my purely numerical calculation gave the same numbers, that's a very pleasing visualisation (but of course). Thanks!

simonp

  • Omnomnomnipotent.
Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #843 on: November 12, 2015, 04:49:53 pm »
Another great visualisation. Kurt's consistency really stands out on that chart, in that the slope of the curve to the right of the E line is steep and the curve to the left turns sharply.

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #844 on: November 12, 2015, 06:09:08 pm »
Instead of looking at graphs, to visualise Steve's amazing achievements, on Saturday I set off at 04:30 and rode 326km due North to Stockport.

<snipped>

That was a superb bit of writing Lee (not to mention the riding) and deserves to be widely read.

I haven't seen another post which so well illustrates the challenge.

 Thanks for that.

Bryn

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #845 on: November 12, 2015, 06:31:01 pm »
Thanks Jo

Another great graph that tells a story.

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #846 on: November 12, 2015, 06:32:39 pm »
Clearly I'm the only stupid person here, so can someone explain those Eddington number graphs to me.
You're only as successful as your last 1200...

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #847 on: November 12, 2015, 06:54:12 pm »
You have an Eddington number E if you have ridden E days covering at least E miles. So for example, if you had an Eddington number of 75 it would mean you have ridden at least 75 miles on 75 separate days (sorry, you probably knew that already, but it helps with the explanation below).

The charts show the number of days (vertically) in which each of the riders have ridden at least a given distance (indicated by horizontal position). Using Steve an example, the line starts off high on the left hand side because he has had around 300 days when he has at least ridden 1 mile. It remains quite high towards the left because he has also had around 300 days when he has ridden at least 25 miles. The line starts to drop as the distance ridden in a day before it is counted increases. So for example, there have only been around 10 days when he has ridden at least 250 miles.

The diagonal grey line represents the 'Eddington line' because it joins all the points where the minimum distance ridden matches the number of days that has occurred (all the Es). That allows you to see a rider's Eddington number as it is where their own line intersects that diagonal.

The point made by SimonP above was about the shape of the curve made by each rider as you can imagine different archetypical riding styles. A super-consistent rider who rode 200 miles every day would have a rectangular shape where from left to right they would have at 200 days of at least 1, 2, 3,...200 mile rides and then 0 days of 201 miles or more. Kurt is showing something approaching this kind of profile. In contrast a rider who had a lot of variation in the length of rides they do would have a curve that gradually fell as it moved right (they'd have many days of at least 1 mile, a few less of at least 10 miles, fewer still of at least 50 miles etc). Miles shows this kind of profile.

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #848 on: November 12, 2015, 07:34:35 pm »
As ever Jo, a very clear and concise explanation.

Your commentaries are key to making the OYTT interesting for the armchair readers.....many thanks. :thumbsup:

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #849 on: November 12, 2015, 07:42:37 pm »
Thanks for the explanation Jo.

I think what was confusing me was the horizontal axis being called "Distance exceeded". Why the word "exceeded" and not simply "ridden" or "covered" or similar?
You're only as successful as your last 1200...