Author Topic: [HAMR] Visualizing the OYTT  (Read 168296 times)

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1200 on: September 12, 2016, 06:33:02 am »
I think the competition between Amanda and Steve enlivens the challenge. After all it is quite likely that Amanda will take the world record by some margin and that Steve will be the most likely person to threaten that record next year.

Since Steve started his month record attempt, he has averaged 241 miles per day. Amanda has managed 237 mpd over the same period and 240 mpd if you exclude 2nd September with the tail of Hurricane Hermine. Even though Amanda's September total won't be an official record, I have no doubt that they are both sizing each other up this month.

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1201 on: September 12, 2016, 06:50:41 am »
Jo, I am continually thankful for the work you have put into to showing in an easy format the endeavours of all the cyclists over some considerable period of time now, I pop in everyday hoping you've found time to produce an update.

I have a question though, which basically stems from my lack of understanding of the "Eddington Number", but can you explain how the graph showing it should be read? I'm struggling to make any meaning out of it.

Ian

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1202 on: September 12, 2016, 07:32:43 am »
An Eddington Number E is the largest value where a cyclist has ridden E days of at least E miles. For example over your lifetime you might have ridden over 120 miles in a day on 120 separate occasions. One of its characteristics is that larger Eddington numbers are much much harder to achieve than slightly smaller ones (moving from E=120 to E=121 isn't just about riding one extra day at 121 miles, but ensuring you have 121 days where you have ridden at least 121 miles). For the OYTT challengers, I have been recording not the lifetime Eddington numbers, but their annual ones, for which larger numbers are harder still to achieve.

The Eddington chart shows the frequency of ride lengths for each rider. So for example, following Amanda's purple line from left to right shows that she has ridden at least 5, 10, 15...50 miles on 118 occasions (the vertical position of the line). It dips down by one ride at the 55 mile mark indicating that on 117 days she has ridden at least 55, 60, 65...160 miles. It then dips downward indicating that she had ridden progressively fewer days with longer rides with only a couple of days when she has ridden 260 miles or so.

The Eddington number can be found on the chart by looking along the diagonal line where the value on the horizontal axis (distance) is equal to the value on the vertical axis (number of days). Where the frequency line intersects that diagonal, the Eddington number is highlighted with a small circle.

The shape of the line for each rider gives an indication of how their Eddington number is likely to change in the future. Amanda's purple line shows that her E is limited simply by the number of days she has ridden so far. For every extra day she rides at the current rate she is likely to increase her E by 1 until she hits around 230 days (because she has been riding at least 230 miles almost every day). In contrast, the steep fall off for Kajsa means that her rate of increase will be much less day by day (because she has already ridden more days than the number of miles in a typical day). She has to ride longer distances than she has been to move up that diagonal line. In fact that is precisely what she is doing this month, aiming to ride at least 100 miles per day, so we can expect her to hit E=100 in a couple of weeks.

Wowbagger

  • Dez's butler
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Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1203 on: September 12, 2016, 05:25:10 pm »
If Steve and Amanda are indeed eyeing each other up, that's one hell of a 1000-yard stare.
Oh, Bach without any doubt. Bach every time for me.

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1204 on: September 12, 2016, 10:02:46 pm »
Amanda's comment on Steve's ride 4 days ago (on Strava):
Quote
It's definitely cool to have a "riding partner" this month. ;) Keep up the good work!

Wowbagger

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Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1205 on: September 12, 2016, 10:20:01 pm »
That's very nice! I have had a glance at Strava to see what distances Steve has ben posting, but haven't bothered with the comments since that cretin "Adam Day" was bad-mouthing people.
Oh, Bach without any doubt. Bach every time for me.

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1206 on: September 14, 2016, 07:42:40 am »
Day 122 (Amanda Coker) / Day 257 (Kajsa Tylen) / Day 102 (Alicia Searvogel) / Day 13 (Steve Abraham Month Record)

The unspoken September competition between Steve and Amanda continues with Steve currently averaging 238.2 miles per day and Amanda with 238.6 miles per day over the same period. As far as Steve's month target goes he remains 58 miles ahead of his target pace.

Kajsa adds a couple more centuries and a further ride just below the 100 easing her away from Billie's summer distances. Alicia is back to riding centuries following a bit of a rough patch, but will have a little work to do to edge herself back onto her 100 mpd average.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1207 on: September 17, 2016, 12:52:51 pm »
Day 125 (Amanda Coker) / Day 260 (Kajsa Tylen) / Day 105 (Alicia Searvogel) / Day 15 (Steve Abraham Month Record)

Some big miles from all riders in the last few days. Alicia breaks through 10,000 miles with a day of 158 miles followed by a couple more century rides. Kajsa rides three more centuries taking her annual Eddington number to 99. She should reach E=100 in the next 4 or 5 days. Amanda is also a matter of a few days from taking Billie's record as she gradually eases up her daily totals, currently 240-250 mpd.

After a couple of comparatively shorter days, Steve puts in a big ride of 267 miles in the rain to bring his monthly total to 3566 miles at the half way point.




red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1208 on: September 17, 2016, 12:59:05 pm »
The competition between Amanda and Steve in September is proving interesting. There is no doubt that Amanda has increased her daily mileage at the same time as Steve tries for a UMCA month record. At the half way point, Steve is averaging 238.2 mpd while Amanda is at 238.6 mpd. With Steve choosing different routes depending on the changeable weather his distances are less consistent than Amanda's but he is on track to take the official record. As to who actually rides further in September, the competition remains wide open.


Wowbagger

  • Dez's butler
    • Musings of a Gentleman Cyclist
Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1209 on: September 17, 2016, 03:11:00 pm »
That's a fascinating struggle! Assuming Steve has the fuel in the tank, as it were, he might be able to launch a "sprint finish" to the month, in the knowledge that he can have a rest for a while afterwards, whereas Amanda will have to carry on for quite a few more months yet.
Oh, Bach without any doubt. Bach every time for me.

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1210 on: September 17, 2016, 06:35:29 pm »
Yes, although Amanda has the advantage in that Steve effectively has to run the race twice. For every additional mile she rides, Steve will have to do the same both this month and next year.

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1211 on: September 17, 2016, 08:16:13 pm »
That's a fascinating struggle!

Indeed. Enjoying following this one.

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1212 on: September 17, 2016, 11:44:18 pm »
Quote
Yes, although Amanda has the advantage in that Steve effectively has to run the race twice. For every additional mile she rides, Steve will have to do the same both this month and next year.

she's putting the year on the shelf though should this continue,

whatever she does, if he goes again will his target be hers if she gets it, or Tommys, as it was?


Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1213 on: September 18, 2016, 08:47:53 am »
whatever she does, if he goes again will his target be hers if she gets it, or Tommys, as it was?

What would be the point of targeting Tommy's record, since Kurt has already beaten this record? Unless Steve wants to fall into sub-categories (on a steel frame, audax-style, unsupported, in Britain, and so and so), but I don't think this is a good idea!

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1214 on: September 18, 2016, 09:40:49 am »
Day 126 (Amanda Coker) / Day 261 (Kajsa Tylen) / Day 106 (Alicia Searvogel) / Day 16 (Steve Abraham Month Record)






Fidgetbuzz

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Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1215 on: September 18, 2016, 04:39:51 pm »
If I read the bottom graph correctly .. in the last 10 days .. Steve has been below daily target 7 times and on or above just 3 times. His cum average has been declining ever since the big day 1 ride .. and although still above the target average has been getting closer and closer to it. I would suggest that Steve needs good calm weather for the next fortnight to crack this record
I was an accountant until I discovered Audax !!

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1216 on: September 18, 2016, 05:35:56 pm »
Because Steve started with very high mileage on his first day it is inevitable that his cumulative average will regress downwards towards the mean, so that in itself is not necessarily worrying. But his rolling 4-day average has been below target in the last 8 days which means, as you say, he will have to step up a little in the coming days. He does remain above target (by 33 miles), but he has been steadily eating into the advantage he built up in the first week.

mattc

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Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1217 on: September 18, 2016, 06:59:39 pm »
whatever she does, if he goes again will his target be hers if she gets it, or Tommys, as it was?

What would be the point of targeting Tommy's record, since Kurt has already beaten this record? Unless Steve wants to fall into sub-categories (on a steel frame, audax-style, unsupported, in Britain, and so and so), but I don't think this is a good idea!
It wouldn't be at all odd to tackle a "UK" record. Conditions are so different across the globe that I think it's far more credible than "on a steel frame, audax-style, [or]  unsupported". And pretty much all sports recognise national records as well as world records.

That's purely my opinion, not based on ANY comments from Steve or his camp  :hand:

And I think he's in a different age cat to Kurt and Amanda, so he'd just be extending his own HAMR record?
Has never ridden RAAM
---------
No.11  Because of the great host of those who dislike the least appearance of "swank " when they travel the roads and lanes. - From Kuklos' 39 Articles

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1218 on: September 18, 2016, 09:39:07 pm »
When I first look at steve's graph it looks like he has had some very short days, then I look more closely on this small screen and I spot the range of the y axis starts at 180 miles!!!

Jo, could you up the font size to match that of the other graphs or does the data need the width to be interpreted properly?

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1219 on: September 21, 2016, 07:49:11 am »
Day 129 (Amanda Coker) / Day 264 (Kajsa Tylen) / Day 109 (Alicia Searvogel) / Day 19 (Steve Abraham Month Record)

Amanda is now within 30 miles of taking Billie Dovey's record following three consecutive days of 240 miles. Kajsa adds another three days of centuries and is on the cusp of an annual Eddington number of 100. Alicia, following a comparative rest day heads back to doing 100 milers. She is currently on an average of 96.4 miles per day, easily ahead of a Billie schedule but a little behind her personal target of 100 mpd.

Steve continues to alternate between longer and  (relatively) shorter days but remains just above his target average with a month average so far of 238.2 mpd.




Jack_P

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Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1220 on: September 21, 2016, 10:45:53 am »
Kajsa has certainly stepped up here game this month after a couple of quiet months; as highlighted in the Centuries Challenge. Running  in homage to the original 1911 Cycling weekly magazine competition.
Steve of course has all but put it to bed with this months amazing effort.  :o

Yearly centuries table link  https://goo.gl/qqUuZt

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1221 on: September 22, 2016, 10:37:06 pm »
Day 130 (Amanda Coker) / Day 265 (Kajsa Tylen) / Day 110 (Alicia Searvogel) / Day 20 (Steve Abraham Month Record)

Amanda takes the women's record from Billie.




red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1222 on: September 25, 2016, 11:17:43 am »
Day 133 (Amanda Coker) / Day 268 (Kajsa Tylen) / Day 113 (Alicia Searvogel) / Day 23 (Steve Abraham Month Record)

One slightly shorter day for Kajsa as she diverts to pick up her TWC Unsung Heroine Award at the NEC, before returning to her September centuries. Amanda continues with her daily rides of largely around 240 miles pushing away from Billie's total and with Marcel Planes' 1911 record in her sights. Although slightly down on her 100mpd target Alicia makes decent progress above Billie Dovey record pace. She decides to ditch the recumbent as the cause of her knee/leg problems.



Steve has one week left on his month record attempt and currently 31 miles ahead of target with 5398 miles covered.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1223 on: September 28, 2016, 09:09:30 pm »
Steve and Amanda's progress as of 27th September:



Steve was 55 miles ahead of target by the end of the 27th. Not recorded above is the fact at midnight he was at Cambridge on his way home. He then rode another 47km, arriving home at 4am. This will get added to his total for the 28th when it is uploaded.

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1224 on: September 29, 2016, 07:41:48 am »
Day 137 (Amanda Coker) / Day 272 (Kajsa Tylen) / Day 117 (Alicia Searvogel) / Day 27 (Steve Abraham Month Record)

Kajsa continues with her streak of 100s to push her annual Eddington number to 100. Just to prove she's not a slave to the numbers she rides one day of 99.6 miles aware that she stopped just short of 100. Amanda does what she does best, pushing out another few days of 240 miles, with only one day cut a little short due to stormy weather. Alicia is currently averaging around 96 mpd with some early starts to the day on quieter roads.






After Steve's long ride via Thetford finishing at 4am he starts the next day's riding by 10am and so keeps up a good recent average of around 244 miles per day. With only 3 more days of riding left for the month record, baring mishaps he should exceed his 7000 mile target. He is currently 72 miles ahead of pace with 6372 miles ridden since 2nd September.