Author Topic: [HAMR] A new challenger - Miles Smith  (Read 47147 times)

hillbilly

Re: A new challenger - Miles Smith
« Reply #325 on: November 03, 2015, 01:29:17 pm »
Just posted on FB...

Quote
Better day today. Things running to plan. Will clear daily the WR figure plus our target daily figure. If I do this 40 times, I will pass both of the other guys average daily figures, more importantly I will get all the way to Warrnambool tonight for 6:08 AM return train in the morning.


red marley

Re: A new challenger - Miles Smith
« Reply #326 on: November 03, 2015, 08:14:05 pm »
Just posted on FB...

Quote
Better day today. Things running to plan. Will clear daily the WR figure plus our target daily figure. If I do this 40 times, I will pass both of the other guys average daily figures, more importantly I will get all the way to Warrnambool tonight for 6:08 AM return train in the morning.

I am genuinely puzzled by his assessment. Not to disparage his effort, but I don't see how this tallies with the facts. Today he has submitted rides of:

129.7km
6.0km
3.7km
85.2km
84.9km
11.9km

(and if you're being generous, another ride of 1km that looks like a bit of GPS meandering). That last ride finished at midnight and he immediately followed it with another ride of 103.1km, but since the first in that sequence also started at midnight, you can't use 28 hours of riding as an indicator of 24 hours' worth.

The 24 hours of riding totals 321.4km or 199.7 miles, less than the minimum of 205.6 mpd average and considerably less than that required to  "pass both of the other guys average daily figures" in 40 days. Am I missing something?

Re: A new challenger - Miles Smith
« Reply #327 on: November 03, 2015, 08:46:10 pm »
Just posted on FB...

Quote
Better day today. Things running to plan. Will clear daily the WR figure plus our target daily figure. If I do this 40 times, I will pass both of the other guys average daily figures, more importantly I will get all the way to Warrnambool tonight for 6:08 AM return train in the morning.

I am genuinely puzzled by his assessment. Not to disparage his effort, but I don't see how this tallies with the facts. Today he has submitted rides of:

129.7km
6.0km
3.7km
85.2km
84.9km
11.9km

(and if you're being generous, another ride of 1km that looks like a bit of GPS meandering). That last ride finished at midnight and he immediately followed it with another ride of 103.1km, but since the first in that sequence also started at midnight, you can't use 28 hours of riding as an indicator of 24 hours' worth.

The 24 hours of riding totals 321.4km or 199.7 miles, less than the minimum of 205.6 mpd average and considerably less than that required to  "pass both of the other guys average daily figures" in 40 days. Am I missing something?

I can't make sense of it either. I wish I could understand what figures he is working to as I am struggling to see how he is coming to the conclusions he's putting out there on Facebook.

hillbilly

Re: A new challenger - Miles Smith
« Reply #328 on: November 03, 2015, 09:25:38 pm »
I hope he wasn't inspired by the prospect of being made Sir Miles Smith. 

If so, his PM has recently delivered some bad news for his hopes.

TimC

  • Bike pilot
Re: A new challenger - Miles Smith
« Reply #329 on: November 03, 2015, 10:44:14 pm »
Just posted on FB...

Quote
Better day today. Things running to plan. Will clear daily the WR figure plus our target daily figure. If I do this 40 times, I will pass both of the other guys average daily figures, more importantly I will get all the way to Warrnambool tonight for 6:08 AM return train in the morning.

I am genuinely puzzled by his assessment. Not to disparage his effort, but I don't see how this tallies with the facts. Today he has submitted rides of:

129.7km
6.0km
3.7km
85.2km
84.9km
11.9km

(and if you're being generous, another ride of 1km that looks like a bit of GPS meandering). That last ride finished at midnight and he immediately followed it with another ride of 103.1km, but since the first in that sequence also started at midnight, you can't use 28 hours of riding as an indicator of 24 hours' worth.

The 24 hours of riding totals 321.4km or 199.7 miles, less than the minimum of 205.6 mpd average and considerably less than that required to  "pass both of the other guys average daily figures" in 40 days. Am I missing something?

I can't make sense of it either. I wish I could understand what figures he is working to as I am struggling to see how he is coming to the conclusions he's putting out there on Facebook.

Much as Miles' achievements are, by all normal metrics, amazing, his assessment of his progress in the HAMR challenge seems to be out of step with the facts, and I really can't see what on earth he's using to judge that progress. Is he being misinformed by supporters? Has he some bizarre Km/miles conversion factor that disguises the disparity? Is he just deluding himself? It's all very odd!

Re: A new challenger - Miles Smith
« Reply #330 on: November 04, 2015, 08:38:45 am »
Is he comparing his rides at the same number of days in with Kurt/Steve after those numbers of days in?
<i>Marmite slave</i>

Re: A new challenger - Miles Smith
« Reply #331 on: November 04, 2015, 09:20:37 am »
Maybe Glen McGrath is doing his predictions?

crowriver

  • Крис Б
Re: A new challenger - Miles Smith
« Reply #332 on: November 04, 2015, 10:51:20 am »
Is he comparing his rides at the same number of days in with Kurt/Steve after those numbers of days in?

Most probably. He has restarted, has he not, following the apparently poor winter weather?
Embrace your inner Fred.

TimC

  • Bike pilot
Re: A new challenger - Miles Smith
« Reply #333 on: November 04, 2015, 11:19:11 am »
Is he comparing his rides at the same number of days in with Kurt/Steve after those numbers of days in?

Most probably. He has restarted, has he not, following the apparently poor winter weather?

He has restarted - twice, and according to the UCMA, these aren't concurrent attempts; starts 1 & 2 are now registered as 'inactive'. Miles had completed 3918.8 miles on his third attempt by 31 October (39 days). I had thought he was measuring his progress against Tommy's equivalent day, but Tommy's Day 39 figure was 5991 miles. Kurt's at Day 39 was 7850 and Steve's 7241 on attempt 1 and 7940 on attempt 2 (all figures from the UCMA site). The 'average progress' line of 39 'Standard Godwins (205 and a bit miles) would have 8021.7 miles on Day 39. I just don't understand on what basis Miles thinks he's on WR pace?

Re: A new challenger - Miles Smith
« Reply #334 on: November 04, 2015, 12:27:26 pm »
I think it's safe to discount Miles' likelihood of breaking this record, now.  He seems to be completely detached from the reality of how things are going.  Is it more charitable to suggest that his attempt is unplanned, rather than poorly planned?

red marley

Re: A new challenger - Miles Smith
« Reply #335 on: November 04, 2015, 05:26:40 pm »
I've reset my OYTT chart page to show Miles' 3rd attempt only (from 23rd September).

Below is the progress all the riders have made between 23rd Sept and today. Perhaps this would help Miles judge his progress and what he has to achieve (which is to average 211 mpd for the next 318 days just to reach Tommy's pace)


red marley

Re: A new challenger - Miles Smith
« Reply #336 on: November 04, 2015, 05:32:24 pm »
Miles had completed 3918.8 miles on his third attempt by 31 October (39 days). I had thought he was measuring his progress against Tommy's equivalent day, but Tommy's Day 39 figure was 5991 miles. Kurt's at Day 39 was 7850 and Steve's 7241 on attempt 1 and 7940 on attempt 2 (all figures from the UCMA site). The 'average progress' line of 39 'Standard Godwins (205 and a bit miles) would have 8021.7 miles on Day 39. I just don't understand on what basis Miles thinks he's on WR pace?

I don't think that's quite right. I make Miles' total on his third attempt currently 6728 miles (in 42 days), which puts him marginally ahead of Tommy's first 42 days (6402 miles). It may be that it is Tommy's winter profile that is giving Miles cause for optimism. But as we know, it is unwise to try to match Tommy's profile given the mega distances he put in over sustained periods of the summer to make up his own winter deficit.

Edit: I see that that figure of 3918.8 comes from the UMCA spreadsheet, but that total is only as far as 16th October (24 days).

TimC

  • Bike pilot
Re: A new challenger - Miles Smith
« Reply #337 on: November 04, 2015, 06:17:35 pm »
Ah, thanks Jo - you're quite right. The UCMA stuff is not easy to decipher! Yes, that would explain why he might think he's on WR pace, but that would mean he's learned nothing either from his own earlier efforts, or from Steve and Kurt's experience. But, Steve himself thought he could ride a profile that did better than Tommy in the winter so he didn't have to ride quite so hard in the summer (but still looking at outrageous daily totals!) - and was still optimistic that might be the case even as he was convalescing with his broken ankle. He has a more pragmatic approach now; I hope that Miles sees the advantages of the steadier pace before it's too late.

red marley

Re: A new challenger - Miles Smith
« Reply #338 on: November 08, 2015, 08:47:20 pm »
Does anyone know how Miles is actually getting on (as opposed to guessing from his posted ride stats which is all I can do)? He's lost 1000 miles in the last week compared to Godwin pace, including three days with little or no riding [84,200,67,2,0,65 and 0 miles]. I hope he's in good physical and mental condition.

Re: A new challenger - Miles Smith
« Reply #339 on: November 08, 2015, 09:12:43 pm »

His Facebook page gives some vague info on his current progress and problems he is having

https://www.facebook.com/GoMilesAU

A couple of snippets from recent posts

Quote
This will give me a WR pace day and thus I lose only 3 days this week.

Quote
Good news is, If I had looked after myself, first run to Seymour was done in 4 hrs/62 miles. This includes crossing Melbourne CBD at 1AM Friday night/Sat morning. That's 240 in 16 hrs. I was easing up during ride as 1.5 hrs ahead of plan (.5 late leaving, 1hr made up on ride) and southerly not kicked in with any strength until after I tried to 'rev the nuts off a cold engine'.

My bold on the last quote

You've got to give him credit for having a positive outlook.

Re: A new challenger - Miles Smith
« Reply #340 on: November 08, 2015, 09:58:31 pm »
I am utterly perplexed by this. His facebook posts make it clear he thinks he is exceeding WR pace; but the HAMR leaderboard doesn't show any such mileage.
Is it possible he is having technical issues and his actual miles aren't being logged properly?

He posted this for the 1st of nov
Quote
Going down the bay early (80 miles/125 km's), back by 9:00 to catch train to Warrnambool (sweet delicious sleep) then ride home (170 miles/270 km's) via Geelong
the hamr leaderboard shows 200miles for that day. Not 230.

He's posting some monster miles on the hamr board some days but those are always followed by low mileages. Could be a result of his (quite often) posting split miles for a 24hr period.
<i>Marmite slave</i>

Re: A new challenger - Miles Smith
« Reply #341 on: November 08, 2015, 10:07:09 pm »
I was trying to interpret his FB posts. He mentioned that he was eating loads to make up for weight he's lost in the last few days. Implying he's had some sort of tummy bug maybe? It's not entirely clear.

It does appear that he might be trying to mirror Tommy's line and that's the WR pace he keeps referring to.

I don't understand why he would abandon his 2nd effort either, why not run it concurrently? It's not like he stopped for several weeks, he was still racking up mileage.

TimC

  • Bike pilot
Re: A new challenger - Miles Smith
« Reply #342 on: November 09, 2015, 09:20:08 am »
As Jo's mentioned before, Miles does seem to be, um, 'technically challenged'! The whole Garmin thing seems utterly beyond him, and has been set up and is presumably managed by someone else. I do wonder, from the tone of his FB posts, if a) his miles aren't being correctly logged or b) he's not actually aware of his logged progress and someone's telling him porkies! It would be a crying shame to find that he's actually done the miles but someone didn't upload them properly.

crowriver

  • Крис Б
Re: A new challenger - Miles Smith
« Reply #343 on: November 09, 2015, 09:28:57 am »
It would be a crying shame to find that he's actually done the miles but someone didn't upload them properly.

 :(

Seems like the most likely explanation of the gap between his Fb claims and the Strava totals, unless it's a 24-hour split issue? OTOH he also seems to have had a few other problems the past few days too.
Embrace your inner Fred.

TimC

  • Bike pilot
Re: A new challenger - Miles Smith
« Reply #344 on: November 09, 2015, 09:41:52 am »
Had there been a time when he hasn't had problems? He's on his second restart (third attempt) now, having binned the first two which were running concurrently. He seems quite often to have consecutive days of little or no riding. He comments frequently on the wind, though often uses trains to get him to somewhere he can ride home with a tailwind, and seems to have had more than his share of motons spoiling his day. The FB page is frustratingly incomplete as a record of his progress and difficulties, but the uploaded miles show a story of hope over achievement. He's not in the Ironox league of pretenders - there's no way I could or would attempt to achieve what he's done - but I just don't get what's going on here. Is he being deceived or is he deceiving us?

hillbilly

Re: A new challenger - Miles Smith
« Reply #345 on: November 09, 2015, 09:51:12 am »
His challenge is quixotic.

mattc

  • "Hannibal"
  • n.b. have grown beard since photo taken
    • Didcot Audaxes
Re: A new challenger - Miles Smith
« Reply #346 on: November 09, 2015, 10:20:41 am »
Is he in the same UMCA age category as Steve or Kurt?
Has never ridden RAAM
---------
No.11  Because of the great host of those who dislike the least appearance of "swank " when they travel the roads and lanes. - From Kuklos' 39 Articles

Re: A new challenger - Miles Smith
« Reply #347 on: November 09, 2015, 10:26:34 am »
It would be a crying shame to find that he's actually done the miles but someone didn't upload them properly.

 :(

Seems like the most likely explanation of the gap between his Fb claims and the Strava totals, unless it's a 24-hour split issue? OTOH he also seems to have had a few other problems the past few days too.

AFAIK someone setup his Garmin to automatically upload via his mobile phone. I think that's why his Strava is littered with short rides, each time he presses stop he uploads. He must know what his official mileage is as it's on the UMCA website, unless he's not checking and no-one is telling him otherwise.

I'm pretty sure he's had food poisoning this past week...

Quote
This will give me a WR pace day and thus I lose only 3 days this week. Go V Line Sausage Rolls.

He's blaming a sausage roll here.

marcusjb

  • Full of bon courage.
    • Occasional wittering
Re: A new challenger - Miles Smith
« Reply #348 on: November 09, 2015, 10:54:39 am »
Is he in the same UMCA age category as Steve or Kurt?

He's 53 (Kurt is 52 and Steve 41), so both Kurt and Miles are in the 50-59 division.

(take those ages with a slight pinch of salt - clearly on an event a year long, people have birthdays, so they may be a 54, 53 and 42 by now)
Right! What's next?

Ooooh. That sounds like a daft idea.  I am in!

hillbilly

Re: A new challenger - Miles Smith
« Reply #349 on: November 09, 2015, 12:12:05 pm »
Erm, I think his Facebook feed is saying he was suffering from really bad cramps that was limiting his cycling.  He's using a hot water bottle and magnesium tabs to relieve them. 

Admittedly I struggled to decipher meaning from his stream of consciousness - do VR Line sausage rolls have mescaline as an ingredient?