Author Topic: [HAMR] Current thoughts on the record attempt?  (Read 157632 times)

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1900 on: January 10, 2016, 08:17:44 pm »
Ah, I didn't know that we had a forum Guy Fawkes.   :)

zigzag

  • unfuckwithable
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1901 on: January 10, 2016, 08:21:06 pm »
some thoughts and facts from today's ride. i woke up at 5:50am, washed myself, prepared and had a breakfast, got my cycling kit on, did a quick tlc to a bike (tyres, chain, batteries in gps and lights) and left home at 7:10. that first 1h20m disappeared from the day unnoticeably. i chose my slowest/heaviest bike (which is comparable to Steve's sojourn) then rode to whitstable (92km) with with a fine group of friends where we had a full english breakfast that took us 50min (could have turned around in 30min if we were in a rush). then we all rode back to london, completing 183km(114mi) in 9hrs at 23.6kph(14.7mph - roughly Steve's average speed) and i was home at 4:10pm. i had to have some food again.
let's assume the food was ready and it took me an optimistic 20min to eat and get out of the house. i would need to ride another 8hrs, all in the dark, and be back home half past midnight with 213 miles for the day - have some food, quick wash and hopefully be in bed by 1:20am,  to sleep only 4.5 hours and do the same thing tomorrow.. day after.. week after week.. for the next 7 months and with no margin for error!

how is that possible/sustainable? have i missed anything obvious?

best of luck to Steve in riding more miles than on his first attempt.


p.s. i've ridden with Steve before, if that makes any difference :)

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1902 on: January 10, 2016, 08:36:16 pm »
some thoughts and facts from today's ride. i woke up at 5:50am, washed myself, prepared and had a breakfast, got my cycling kit on, did a quick tlc to a bike (tyres, chain, batteries in gps and lights) and left home at 7:10. that first 1h20m disappeared from the day unnoticeably. i chose my slowest/heaviest bike (which is comparable to Steve's sojourn) then rode to whitstable (92km) with with a fine group of friends where we had a full english breakfast that took us 50min (could have turned around in 30min if we were in a rush). then we all rode back to london, completing 183km(114mi) in 9hrs at 23.6kph(14.7mph - roughly Steve's average speed) and i was home at 4:10pm. i had to have some food again.
let's assume the food was ready and it took me an optimistic 20min to eat and get out of the house. i would need to ride another 8hrs, all in the dark, and be back home half past midnight with 213 miles for the day - have some food, quick wash and hopefully be in bed by 1:20am,  to sleep only 4.5 hours and do the same thing tomorrow.. day after.. week after week.. for the next 7 months and with no margin for error!

how is that possible/sustainable? have i missed anything obvious?

Yes, what you've missed is pretty obvious - you need a Dame with a van :)
Garry Broad

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1903 on: January 10, 2016, 08:43:39 pm »
some thoughts and facts from today's ride. i woke up at 5:50am, washed myself, prepared and had a breakfast, got my cycling kit on, did a quick tlc to a bike (tyres, chain, batteries in gps and lights) and left home at 7:10. that first 1h20m disappeared from the day unnoticeably. i chose my slowest/heaviest bike (which is comparable to Steve's sojourn) then rode to whitstable (92km) with with a fine group of friends where we had a full english breakfast that took us 50min (could have turned around in 30min if we were in a rush). then we all rode back to london, completing 183km(114mi) in 9hrs at 23.6kph(14.7mph - roughly Steve's average speed) and i was home at 4:10pm. i had to have some food again.
let's assume the food was ready and it took me an optimistic 20min to eat and get out of the house. i would need to ride another 8hrs, all in the dark, and be back home half past midnight with 213 miles for the day - have some food, quick wash and hopefully be in bed by 1:20am,  to sleep only 4.5 hours and do the same thing tomorrow.. day after.. week after week.. for the next 7 months and with no margin for error!

how is that possible/sustainable? have i missed anything obvious?

best of luck to Steve in riding more miles than on his first attempt.


p.s. i've ridden with Steve before, if that makes any difference :)

One day last June I got up at a similar time, put my most aerodynamic bike in the back of the car, drove for an hour down to Alton on the A31, and started riding just before 7:30, doing circuits on the A31 all day. 

I didn't stop for breakfast, or lunch, or anything at all, other than once for about 30 seconds to pick up new bottles.  It wasn't a very scenic route, it rained a bit in the morning and all I had by way of interaction all day was the odd word with someone who passed me or who I passed - plus a few cheers from friends or helpers of friends. 

Just before 7:30pm, I got the shout from a timekeeper to stop.  I was absolutely shattered, but I'd done 257 miles (which was less than I'd hoped but that's not relevant).  I limped back the 10 miles to Alton and, after chatting to some people, eating and having a shower, drove home and was in bed by 10pm

I couldn't do it again the next day, mainly because I'd wrung every last drop out of my legs in the last two hours, to make sure I got over 250.  But if I had taken it a little bit easier all day, not upped my effort in the last two hours, and even had a couple of short food breaks, I might still have managed c.213 miles in 12 hours while leaving my body in shape to repeat the exercise, and having enough time for 8 hours in bed.

If I was ever going to do a one year time trial (which I am not) that is how a lot of it would have to look. 

PS I've ridden with Steve from time to time, discussed his plans with him before he started and my company was one of his first sponsors!

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1904 on: January 10, 2016, 08:44:06 pm »
I don’t think you have missed anything, zigzag.

Given that it has been difficult to identify any change in strategy (location, routes, transfers) that is both practical and likely to be effective, the hope is that his speed will increase. Much of last year was spent thus, as far as I can tell:

- first part of the year: paying the price of lack of initial fitness
- injury and recovery
- impaired recovery and later concerns re diet and its effects as Steve tried to reduce stopped time by eating on the move

Taking a positive view, he has now got past that lot (still managing to do 65,000 miles), and is capable of increasing his daily distances.

So it is too early to call it.





Bianchi Boy

  • Cycling is my doctor
  • Is it possible for a ride to be too long?
    • Reading Cycling Club
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1905 on: January 10, 2016, 08:53:35 pm »
I have been musing over the challenge that Steve faces and wish him all the best and want him to bring the record home!

Steve's biggest challenge is speeding up. The speed line he is crossing is where wind resistance takes over from road resistance as the biggest enemy. By my estimates he needs to increase his power by 50% to achieve the speed required to do the distance in the same time he is riding now. The main reason for this is that wind resistance does not increase in a linear manner, it increases with square of the speed. Steve has shown very flat power values with little variation day to day. For those of us who have done TTs you know how hard it is to ride at 1mph extra, 3 is a very hard ask.

I am rooting for Steve, but everything I have done in cycling tells me that this is very very hard. It will significantly increase the physical strain and he will need to eat about 25% extra.

All the best Steve  :thumbsup:

You are in a hard place.

BB
Set a fire for a man and he will be warm for a day, set a man on fire and he is warm for the rest of his life.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1906 on: January 10, 2016, 09:58:38 pm »
Blimey, just looked at the posts on the latter part of this thread.

I suppose the thread title prompts people to air their personal opinions but I can't help feeling what has been posted says more about the posters than it does about Steve's attempt.

FFS people, if you cannot support his attempt, fuck off and whimper elsewhere.

:(
You're only as successful as your last 1200...

TimC

  • Bike pilot
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1907 on: January 10, 2016, 10:07:56 pm »
...
The challenge is to allow others to have opinions that differ markedly from yours without taking it personally, or doing so on someone else's behalf, or responding with the intent to give offence. Something which we are generally quite good at on this forum, though the excellence occasionally lapses.
...

I agree with this Tim though from page 25 or so of this thread such excellence has been markedly absent from a very small minority of very aggressively vociferous individuals.   I happen to think that there is an ongoing attempt to undermine Steve's record attempt but then, these are just my opinions.   Funny though, whenever I voice it, I get rounded on and sniped at by the thread bullies.

I don't see it quite like that. I see a range of opinions from those who think Steve now has no chance, via those who think he has a chance but it's bloody tight, to those who won't countenance any suggestion that he might not do it. The two extremes of that range are the purely evidence-based versus the purely faith-based opinions, one with no emotional attachment and the other with lots, and they don't sit happily together so it gets a bit fractious. But all are valid opinions and have every right to be expressed. We just need to be a bit better at playing the ball, not the player - but that doesn't mean we'll agree. At least, not until it's indisputable one way or the other!

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1908 on: January 10, 2016, 10:19:32 pm »
I don't see it quite like that. I see a range of opinions from those who think Steve now has no chance, via those who think he has a chance but it's bloody tight, to those who won't countenance any suggestion that he might not do it. The two extremes of that range are the purely evidence-based versus the purely faith-based opinions, one with no emotional attachment and the other with lots, and they don't sit happily together so it gets a bit fractious. But all are valid opinions and have every right to be expressed. We just need to be a bit better at playing the ball, not the player - but that doesn't mean we'll agree. At least, not until it's indisputable one way or the other!

That's exactly how I see it. 

Putting my cards on the table, I'm in the evidence rather than faith camp and am now about 95% of the view that he has no chance to 5% that he has a chance but it's very tight.  That doesn't mean I wouldn't be absolutely delighted if he did, just I think it is too hard now to be realistic.  And because I think it is too hard, I believe the best advice to give him would be to stop and not risk his health in what looks like a lost cause.

LMT

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1909 on: January 10, 2016, 10:27:56 pm »
I have been musing over the challenge that Steve faces and wish him all the best and want him to bring the record home!

Steve's biggest challenge is speeding up. The speed line he is crossing is where wind resistance takes over from road resistance as the biggest enemy. By my estimates he needs to increase his power by 50% to achieve the speed required to do the distance in the same time he is riding now. The main reason for this is that wind resistance does not increase in a linear manner, it increases with square of the speed. Steve has shown very flat power values with little variation day to day. For those of us who have done TTs you know how hard it is to ride at 1mph extra, 3 is a very hard ask.

I am rooting for Steve, but everything I have done in cycling tells me that this is very very hard. It will significantly increase the physical strain and he will need to eat about 25% extra.

All the best Steve  :thumbsup:

You are in a hard place.

BB

I'd say you'd be about right. Est power values from Strava are in the 120w range which ime is about right for his speed. If Steve was to increase his output to around 180w I can see him easily getting upto around the 17-18mph mark, and this - I think - would still be a sustainable output to hold. Might be worth investing in a Powertap wheel...

Basil

  • Um....err......oh bugger!
  • Help me!
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1910 on: January 10, 2016, 10:41:13 pm »
Just a point for those mentioning "page numbers".
We don't all have the same number of posts per page.  Page numbers just don't work.
For example.  I am posting this on page 192.  (For me).

Better to refer to " post XXX" or "post XXX onwards" or whatever.

Hugs
Basil
Quote from: Kim
And remember that friends who organise things on Facebook aren't proper friends anyway.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1911 on: January 10, 2016, 10:42:23 pm »
Putting my cards on the table, there are, in my opinion, those who have decided already that it is impossible now so they have taken a hard line stance saying that Steve will fail, Steve is wrong in what he is doing, etc., etc. without letting the man finish his tilt.    A number of destructive side issues arose from this, for instance about PR and about funding.   All these things seem designed to me to undermine the attempt.     

As Wowbagger said some pages ago, it's not binary.  Yup.   There are so many metaphorical and actual 'drunks on mopeds' to safely negotiate so it's far from clear cut.   However I choose to analyse it, and I have done so, I keep my countenance on what I might think simply because whilst Steve thinks that he can still do it I will back him all the way.   He deserves respect and support.   Hell, he's earned it.

That, in a nutshell, is my point of view and I'd rather not say any more on this thread now.   

Cheers Basil for that.   Just go back to December 11th ...    ;)

LMT

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1912 on: January 10, 2016, 10:51:38 pm »
Putting my thoughts on the table is this:-

This is the ''Current thoughts on the record attempt'' where people can come and comment on the record attempt - which is exactly what has happened. People may not like what is being posted but telling people to fuck off and coming out with snide remarks ain't the done thing.

By all means disagree, but don't get personal.

And my current thought is this:-

Steve is currently at 180 miles which is below plan, based on his previous rides I'll surmise that this attempt will fail. He's already cemented himself as the fourth best cyclist ever when it comes to yearly milage and trying to best that imo is a lost cause. It's the record or bust.

Knock it on the head now, rest, regroup, train, look at other bikes, and have another attempt (if you wish) come the Spring. It *looks* like that winter is finally rearing it's head which will only make things more difficult over the next few weeks.

Basil

  • Um....err......oh bugger!
  • Help me!
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1913 on: January 10, 2016, 10:56:56 pm »

Cheers Basil for that.   Just go back to December 11th ...    ;)

Oh must I?  What? Till I throw a six or something?  :(
Quote from: Kim
And remember that friends who organise things on Facebook aren't proper friends anyway.

Grampa

  • Closest I'll get to being called a climber.
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1914 on: January 10, 2016, 10:58:01 pm »
Perhaps, to get an expert opinion on Steve's chances, we should get a Book
maker to list this endeavour.  They may never have ridden a racehorse (or a TdF bike) or kicked a ball but they do seem to do quite a good job of working out odds for anything.  Some might regard evens as a chance to make easy money whereas others, I gather  would only be tempted by longer odds. (I'm not a gambler, by the way.)
Dee Swimmer, Dee Biker, Dee Walker

Karla

  • car(e) free
    • Lost Byway - around the world by bike
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1915 on: January 11, 2016, 12:09:47 am »
I happen to think that there is an ongoing attempt to undermine Steve's record attempt

Really?  You think some people want Steve to fail so they're trying to bring that about by posting on YACF?  Really really? 

Sorry but that's just ridiculous.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1916 on: January 11, 2016, 12:35:14 am »
All these things seem designed to me to undermine the attempt.

Blimey. Seriously?

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1917 on: January 11, 2016, 12:48:16 am »
We've been through a lot of stages in this journey:
Initial fascination with Steve's challenge;
Euphoria at the attention from the media;
Anger at Kurt for usurping Steve's idea, and he was a cheat;
Mass interest from Strava;
Euphoria at a Guardian article;
More anger at Kurt for being a Yank, and probably celebrating like the Ryder Cup team if he gets the record;
Steve gets hit by a moped;
Steve rides a recumbent trike, so Kurt can't be criticised for a recumbent;
Steve gets back on the Raleigh, so he's 'keeping it real'. Steve is praised for an 'Audax' approach, in contrast to Kurt, who's obviously a cheat;
Steve gets really slow, so he restarts. Kurt has health problems too;
Steve recovers and does PBP, the Autumn weather is kind and Steve picks up pace;
Kurt closes in on the record;
Steve gets his diet changed, and his pace drops;
Kurt gets close to record by enlisting other riders on closed circuit;
Steve fans realise that he can't get the record by riding in an Audax style.
Kurt and Alicia get record and are best thing since sliced bread.
Steve can now use any method he likes to try to attain record, but continues to ride Fenland loop on a Raleigh Sojourn, which to some people is still the best thing since sliced bread.

crowriver

  • Крис Б
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1918 on: January 11, 2016, 01:47:34 am »
Embrace your inner Fred.

Aunt Maud

  • Le Flâneur.
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1919 on: January 11, 2016, 04:43:03 am »
I'll just wait until the end of this monumental effort by Steve, and when that comes, I still won't post a comment about how Steve set about riding his pushbike much further than I could ever contemplate and so much further than anyone else on this forum.

I am, however, enjoying the entertainment provided by the "usual suspects" very muchly, so please in the meantime carry on.


mattc

  • n.b. have grown beard since photo taken
    • Didcot Audaxes
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1920 on: January 11, 2016, 06:58:28 am »
I happen to think that there is an ongoing attempt to undermine Steve's record attempt

Really?  You think some people want Steve to fail so they're trying to bring that about by posting on YACF?  Really really? 

Sorry but that's just ridiculous.
Which bit is ridiculous? (just so we can be really really clear!)
Has never ridden RAAM
---------
No.11  Because of the great host of those who dislike the least appearance of "swank " when they travel the roads and lanes. - From Kuklos' 39 Articles

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1921 on: January 11, 2016, 07:26:15 am »
I am, however, enjoying the entertainment provided by the "usual suspects" very muchly, so please in the meantime carry on.

Likewise - "Gets popcorn out." applies when I visit this thread. :)

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1922 on: January 11, 2016, 07:34:56 am »
^ Here we go. Mr. Elan valley mini pork pie!

 Leave this discussion immediately.

 ;)

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1923 on: January 11, 2016, 07:49:13 am »
Putting my cards on the table, there are, in my opinion, those who have decided already that it is impossible now so they have taken a hard line stance saying that Steve will fail, Steve is wrong in what he is doing, etc., etc. without letting the man finish his tilt.    A number of destructive side issues arose from this, for instance about PR and about funding.   All these things seem designed to me to undermine the attempt.     

As Wowbagger said some pages ago, it's not binary.  Yup.   There are so many metaphorical and actual 'drunks on mopeds' to safely negotiate so it's far from clear cut.   However I choose to analyse it, and I have done so, I keep my countenance on what I might think simply because whilst Steve thinks that he can still do it I will back him all the way.   He deserves respect and support.   Hell, he's earned it.

That, in a nutshell, is my point of view and I'd rather not say any more on this thread now.   

Cheers Basil for that.   Just go back to December 11th ...    ;)

Polar,
It would be really helpful if, when you wanted to make a criticism of something, you made it specific to a particular poster and, ideally, a specific post.  Otherwise it's really not that clear what you are objecting to. 
For example, your comment about undermining Steve is one that I also find ridiculous, but if you were able to cite specific comments which do that, it would help others to see if there was anything in it.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1924 on: January 11, 2016, 07:59:24 am »
I have been musing over the challenge that Steve faces and wish him all the best and want him to bring the record home!

Steve's biggest challenge is speeding up. The speed line he is crossing is where wind resistance takes over from road resistance as the biggest enemy. By my estimates he needs to increase his power by 50% to achieve the speed required to do the distance in the same time he is riding now. The main reason for this is that wind resistance does not increase in a linear manner, it increases with square of the speed. Steve has shown very flat power values with little variation day to day. For those of us who have done TTs you know how hard it is to ride at 1mph extra, 3 is a very hard ask.

I am rooting for Steve, but everything I have done in cycling tells me that this is very very hard. It will significantly increase the physical strain and he will need to eat about 25% extra.

All the best Steve  :thumbsup:

You are in a hard place.

BB

I'd say you'd be about right. Est power values from Strava are in the 120w range which ime is about right for his speed. If Steve was to increase his output to around 180w I can see him easily getting upto around the 17-18mph mark, and this - I think - would still be a sustainable output to hold. Might be worth investing in a Powertap wheel...

My experience is that the Strava est power numbers read low.  Steve is most likely putting out 150+W if it is saying 120. 
I don't think he will be able to up that significantly, if at all. Looking at power files from people in the Transcontinental, and my own from PBP, you see people, after the first day, averaging from 100-150W. Even the guy who was leading the TCR for much of the way was down to 100W by the half way point.
Steve's big problem is that he isn't using his power to create speed and distance as effectively as Kurt.
That is because he
1. Is not aero enough
2. Has done too much riding on hilly lanes rather than what Rocco used to call 'proper roads'.