Will Audax as we know it recover from this?

[Carlosfandango]

😂

[Davef]

I seem to recall Astra Zeneca was around 70% effective in reducing infection and over 90% effective in reducing hospitalisations. That is based on around 20,000 volunteers,

32449 participants

79% vaccine efficacy at preventing symptomatic COVID-19

100% efficacy against severe or critical disease and hospitalisation

https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2021/astrazeneca-us-vaccine-trial-met-primary-endpoint.html

[Geriatricdolan]

Yes but will audax recover from this?

Those who want to ride distances will do so.  There will always be someone willing to act as ACP rep.  Anything else is fluff.

Aren't your events all X-rated anyway?

[Hot Flatus]

The alternative is people get to talk pish with impunity and ultimately someone comes to serious harm or other. That's unethical.

You get anti-vexers and anti-lockdowners getting disproportionate airtime.

We've seen it here, but, thanks to the generally thoughtful posters, they often get short-shrift.

Most have given up trying to change the opinions of bigots as they are probably sick of their perpetual straw man arguments, hyperbolic anecdote, and refusal to engage in adult debate, and don't really even need to bother anyway because their points are being made far more eloquently by a growing number of journalists, and apart from a shrinking minority are increasingly preaching to the converted anyway.

Journalists or pundits, and do you understand the distinction?

You do realise that outside of a tiny number of very vocal internet loons ( ) ,  some self-interested internet grifters like L.Fox and some truly egregious opportunist pundits like Julia Hartley-Bawbag there really are no anti-vax/mask advocates.

[mattc]

^ mattc spaketh some sense.  ( )

Jesus H Chr... - this lockdown really is affecting the nation's mental health.

[Hot Flatus]

 I know.

I'm very pleased with the progress you've been making, Matthew. We are nearly at the point where we can start talking about day release and maybe remove the genital cuff.

[mattc]

maybe remove the genital cuff.

No.

WON'T let you.

It feels NICE.

[Hot Flatus]

 

[Von Broad]

Haven't logged on for a while......

but after reading the thread title, I was one verge of replying, 'this is the thread for me', and all that.......the meat and bones of my post mostly concerned itself with deep melancholy, an outrageous accumulation of beer cans and bottles, and a rather pathetic descent into the comforting warm bath of mournful country music.

It was only at the last minute that I'd misread the thread title as reading -

"Will an Audaxer as we know it recover from this?'"

And really......I wish I was joking!!!!!

[Ben T]

...sick of their ... refusal to engage in adult debate...

Journalists or pundits, and do you understand the distinction?

You do realise that outside of a tiny number of very vocal internet loons ( ) ,  some self-interested internet grifters like L.Fox and some truly egregious opportunist pundits like Julia Hartley-Bawbag there really are no anti-vax/mask advocates.

QED 

[Ben T]

Yes but will audax recover from this?

Eventually sleeping in dorms will become legal. People’s choice whether to partake or not. A question might be do enough eschew it to make it not worth the organiser putting it on.
 
To me, as soon as staying away from home is legal, where to sleep is usually not an insurmountable problem due to Airbnb. Personally i rarely sleep well in dorms/ most organiser provided facilities anyway but each to their own...

[Hot Flatus]

...sick of their ... refusal to engage in adult debate...

Journalists or pundits, and do you understand the distinction?

You do realise that outside of a tiny number of very vocal internet loons ( ) ,  some self-interested internet grifters like L.Fox and some truly egregious opportunist pundits like Julia Hartley-Bawbag there really are no anti-vax/mask advocates.

QED 

I'm sure you'll be able cite these journalists then won't you, Ben.


Look, you are asking the impossible, Ben. You are asking us to take ridiculous people seriously.

[Geriatricdolan]

Eventually sleeping in dorms will become legal. People’s choice whether to partake or not. A question might be do enough eschew it to make it not worth the organiser putting it on.

I guess LEL will be the big test, maybe BCM a smaller one before that. Don't think anything of the sort is going to happen this year, but I might be wrong.
Are volunteers still going to be keen? Personally I was due to help at Barnard Castle, but I am not sure I want to do it in 2022. Some reasons are personal, I would like to have flexibility in my calendar in the summer, since it looks like I won't be able to go abroad this year, same as last year. Maybe 2022 will be the year when I set foot on the other side of the channel? But part are concerns related to crowds of people from all corners of the world... social distancing and basic hygiene being difficult when folks are tired and sleep deprived.

As an organiser I would also feel more awkward in asking people for help at events, knowing I might put them in a position where they agree, but they would rather not...

It's probably a lot of paranoia, but it's there and I'm probably not the only one...

[Wycombewheeler]

Eventually sleeping in dorms will become legal. People’s choice whether to partake or not. A question might be do enough eschew it to make it not worth the organiser putting it on.

I guess LEL will be the big test, maybe BCM a smaller one before that. Don't think anything of the sort is going to happen this year, but I might be wrong.
Are volunteers still going to be keen? Personally I was due to help at Barnard Castle, but I am not sure I want to do it in 2022. Some reasons are personal, I would like to have flexibility in my calendar in the summer, since it looks like I won't be able to go abroad this year, same as last year. Maybe 2022 will be the year when I set foot on the other side of the channel? But part are concerns related to crowds of people from all corners of the world... social distancing and basic hygiene being difficult when folks are tired and sleep deprived.

As an organiser I would also feel more awkward in asking people for help at events, knowing I might put them in a position where they agree, but they would rather not...

It's probably a lot of paranoia, but it's there and I'm probably not the only one...

And this is think is the essence here.  Audax as usual will be allowed,  but some will be hesitant.
Events that have traditionally been oversubscribed will still be sold out.  Events which have not may see reductions in participants, this may affect their viability.

The vast majority of audax events as far as I can tell do not involve overnight accommodation in halls. Of the five 400s I have  done only two had a hall for the overnight control and that was more for rest and food than actual sleep.  So only 600s and above are affected.

Over time when the serious illness and deaths from covid reduce to near zero more people will resume previous activities

[Hot Flatus]

Audax will return to normal just as soon as legal conditions allow them to. That really is the crux of it. Everything else is just handwringing guff.

So when will that be? Probably by next summer.  (EDIT: normality to return next summer, not lifting of restrictions. That will happen this year, I think)

[Wycombewheeler]

Audax will return to normal just as soon as legal conditions allow them to. That really is the crux of it. Everything else is just handwringing guff.

So when will that be? Probably by next summer.

Why do you think
"By step 4 which will take place no earlier than 21 June (2021), the government hopes to be in a position to remove all legal limits on social contact"
Would not apply to allowing audax?

Obviously it may move back from the June date,  but expecting it to be pushed to next summer seems pessimistic.

[Hot Flatus]

Assuming 21 June, how many big catered for audaxes do you anticipate will be organised and run before next summer?  In other words, you have to allow time for organisers to organise, entrants to enter etc. Given that 21st June is already towards the end of the audax season and that orgs are unlikely to start orging without strong confidence that legal restrictions will lift I don't see much in the way of big events this year, and they don't really happen september to april anyway.

200s? Yeah, sure, we may well see those this year.

EDIT: I see the possible confusion in my earlier post, giving the possible interpretation that legal restrictions will lift next year. Didn't mean that. Meant that legal restrictions will lift this year and normality will return next summer. Sorry for confusion.

[Wycombewheeler]

Assuming 21 June, how many big catered for audaxes do you anticipate will be organised and run before next summer?  In other words, you have to allow time for organisers to organise, entrants to enter etc. Given that 21st June is already towards the end of the audax season and that orgs are unlikely to start orging without strong confidence that legal restrictions will lift I don't see much in the way of big events this year, and they don't really happen september to april anyway.

200s? Yeah, sure, we may well see those this year.

My point was they will be allowed this year.

I expect few to be run this summer, as time for planning an event makes it unlikely,  although I am expecting lejog to go ahead. 

[Hot Flatus]

Yes, see my edit. My earlier post was unintentionally ambiguous

[Ivo]

The vast majority of audax events as far as I can tell do not involve overnight accommodation in halls. Of the five 400s I have  done only two had a hall for the overnight control and that was more for rest and food than actual sleep.  So only 600s and above are affected.

There aren't that many people who can finish a 400 with a decent sleep, most people push through.
On the continent you'll hardly see an oroganiser consdidering sleeping options for a mere 400.

[Wycombewheeler]

The vast majority of audax events as far as I can tell do not involve overnight accommodation in halls. Of the five 400s I have  done only two had a hall for the overnight control and that was more for rest and food than actual sleep.  So only 600s and above are affected.

There aren't that many people who can finish a 400 with a decent sleep, most people push through.
On the continent you'll hardly see an oroganiser consdidering sleeping options for a mere 400.

Depends on the terrain, and start time,  I did a flat 400 with a full night's sleep (7hours) once, slept between sunset and sunrise.

But generally,  if you are fast enough to have time for a sleep,  you don't need one.

[Geriatricdolan]

Audax will return to normal just as soon as legal conditions allow them to. That really is the crux of it. Everything else is just handwringing guff.

Sweeping statement?

It isn't handwringing guff, it is a legitimate concern. After one year of pondering postponements, then cancelling, then refunding and rearranging riders to a permanent version of the brevet, finally ending up with a manageable number = 30, which allows me to run an event without having to appoint Covid officers and without having to put the life of others at risk for the entertainment of a small crowd, I have decided that this is going to be the last calendar event for me. I will still organise permanent events, I will probably create new ones, because I like plotting routes, but I'm done with calendar events.
So, as far as I am concerned, at least one event is lost from the calendar... there will be a lot more, inevitably... one might argue there were too many anyway... 500+, with half of them well undersubscribed.
The bottom line is that I don't think things will "return to normal" as soon as conditions will allow.

[FifeingEejit]

Audax will return to normal just as soon as legal conditions allow them to. That really is the crux of it. Everything else is just handwringing guff.

So when will that be? Probably by next summer.

Why do you think
"By step 4 which will take place no earlier than 21 June (2021), the government hopes to be in a position to remove all legal limits on social contact"
Would not apply to allowing audax?

Obviously it may move back from the June date,  but expecting it to be pushed to next summer seems pessimistic.

That possibly doesn't mean what you think it means.



Sent from my BKL-L09 using Tapatalk

[Geriatricdolan]

Audax will return to normal just as soon as legal conditions allow them to. That really is the crux of it. Everything else is just handwringing guff.

So when will that be? Probably by next summer.

Why do you think
"By step 4 which will take place no earlier than 21 June (2021), the government hopes to be in a position to remove all legal limits on social contact"
Would not apply to allowing audax?

Obviously it may move back from the June date,  but expecting it to be pushed to next summer seems pessimistic.

That possibly doesn't mean what you think it means.



Sent from my BKL-L09 using Tapatalk

I agree... it seems a deliberately vague statement and it might only mean that it will not be against the law for you to do this and that. You will probably still be required to to do this and that in order to enter a supermarket and there might still be restrictions to the number of people that can attend a given event, just as there were before Covid, the number might be smaller than it was then.

[Hot Flatus]

Somebody mentioned Chile a day or so ago, in relation to widespread vaccination apparently failing to prevent infections. I've had a look at the numbers. Cases rose by 113% over the last 6 weeks, but positive tests have risen by one fifth as quickly. This suggests a massive increase in testing.Of course this increase in testing is to chase rising infections, but it does provide context.

Contrast with Israel, also highly vaccinated, which came out of lockdown 40 days ago and is seeing 86% fewer daily cases since.