Author Topic: Likelyhood of Finishing  (Read 1877 times)

Likelyhood of Finishing
« on: 07 April, 2022, 05:56:56 pm »
Here’s a chart I produced in August 17, from the complete LEL rider data.  It shows how far ahead of time limit by Thirsk (400km) going north vs. Likelyhood of finishing.  At the low end, less than 4 hours ahead, you’ve got about a 15% chance, at high end if you are 13-16 hours ahead of limit you’ve got about a 90% chance of finishing.   More than 16 hours, still high likelyhood but slight dip perhaps indicating riders pushing too hard and burning out or injuring themselves. If you had 7 hours or more contingency by Thirsk your chances of finishing were greater than 50%.

Anyway a reminder for 2022, to work on building that time buffer in the first 24 hours / going north. Malton is equivalent control this year.


ealer

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Re: Likelyhood of Finishing
« Reply #1 on: 07 April, 2022, 06:42:07 pm »
Really helpful as ever, Phil.
Thanks

Re: Likelyhood of Finishing
« Reply #2 on: 07 April, 2022, 07:21:34 pm »
So are you saying arriving at Thirsk with 12 minutes to spare and then spending over 3½ hours there was a doomed plan? I think you are right!

Better try harder this time. :)

Re: Likelyhood of Finishing
« Reply #3 on: 07 April, 2022, 07:50:01 pm »
Thanks for this.

Please can I clarify - is it time in hand on arrival at Thirsk, or time in hand on departure from Thirsk?

cygnet

  • I'm part of the association
Re: Likelyhood of Finishing
« Reply #4 on: 07 April, 2022, 08:04:16 pm »
It will be mostly arrival (since controling gets you access to the facilities usually) but not always.

I'd be interested if theres any corrolation with between this chart and start times (given I have an afternoon start, unlike last time getting up to Malton with a bunch of time in hand is more dependant on sleep needs)
Reasonably Inconsiderate

Re: Likelyhood of Finishing
« Reply #5 on: 07 April, 2022, 08:44:38 pm »
Thanks for this.

Please can I clarify - is it time in hand on arrival at Thirsk, or time in hand on departure from Thirsk?

It’s time in hand at arrival time.  Even though we had vey high scanning out (over 70% of riders scanned out at all the controls they departed) as well, for this one I looked at time in hand at arrival.

Re: Likelyhood of Finishing
« Reply #6 on: 07 April, 2022, 08:47:46 pm »
I'd be interested if theres any corrolation with between this chart and start times (given I have an afternoon start, unlike last time getting up to Malton with a bunch of time in hand is more dependant on sleep needs)

No correlation.  I’ve posted elsewhere that the best finish rate was the 5am 100 hour riders, followed by the last 117 hour 5 min group.  The rest of the starts had very similar if not as good finish rates.   There’s no strong correlation between start time and chances of finishing.

Re: Likelyhood of Finishing
« Reply #7 on: 07 April, 2022, 11:25:25 pm »
It will be mostly arrival (since controling gets you access to the facilities usually) but not always.

I'd be interested if theres any corrolation with between this chart and start times (given I have an afternoon start, unlike last time getting up to Malton with a bunch of time in hand is more dependant on sleep needs)
Those with an afternoon start have and afternoon finish (if they need it - full value).
You have literally no need to "get up to Malton with a bunch of time in hand".
Getting back to Malton (1132km), though, as Phil has shown; it increases a rider's chances of finishing in time to have 7+ hours in hand. Please recall that all the riders in 2017 who wanted to know, were fully aware by Brampton on the way back, that there would be a stonking headwind across the fens.
So arrive in 83 hours from starting. Start 1400 Sun : get back to Malton by 0100 Thu and sleep, leaving by 0600, say. The rider has 15 hours of daylight, 7 hours of dark (some sleeping, YSPMV) and another 9 hours on Friday. 386km in 24 hours of daylight riding time. 7 hours stopped overnight, 5 hours at controls (very generous) and the 'on the road' speed needed is 20kph.
Anyone who doesn't think they can maintain 20kph rolling for those last two days will need to ride some dark hours and spend less time feasting at the controls. One of the benefits of night riding (eg for the flat 120km south from Horncastle) is that the (head)winds are often lighter at night.
The food at controls will be excellent. In time-straightened circumstances, faffing (eg updating your insta story) is not excellent. This is of course an entirely personal choice. But I'd like to welcome riders back to Loughton in time, not hors delai.

cygnet

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Re: Likelyhood of Finishing
« Reply #8 on: 08 April, 2022, 08:15:13 am »
I'd be interested if theres any corrolation with between this chart and start times (given I have an afternoon start, unlike last time getting up to Malton with a bunch of time in hand is more dependant on sleep needs)

No correlation.  I’ve posted elsewhere that the best finish rate was the 5am 100 hour riders, followed by the last 117 hour 5 min group.  The rest of the starts had very similar if not as good finish rates.   There’s no strong correlation between start time and chances of finishing.
Thanks Phil
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mr ben

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Re: Likelyhood of Finishing
« Reply #9 on: 08 April, 2022, 11:19:51 am »
Ajax Bay I think Phil's chart is of the north-bound time-in-hand at Thirsk.

Just found my graph (sad) from last time, I had 7.5 hours at Thirsk (north) but ended up in the < 50 % group. :facepalm:  Not as a result of Instagramming though!

No correlation.  I’ve posted elsewhere that the best finish rate was the 5am 100 hour riders, followed by the last 117 hour 5 min group.  The rest of the starts had very similar if not as good finish rates.   There’s no strong correlation between start time and chances of finishing.

I think some people whinging about start times as documented on facebook could have done with hearing that!

Re: Likelyhood of Finishing
« Reply #10 on: 08 April, 2022, 12:16:08 pm »
Is there a published chart of cut off times based on any given start time, ie Starting at Debden at say 6.00am for example. Or is it simple maths of distance into time?

Re: Likelyhood of Finishing
« Reply #11 on: 08 April, 2022, 03:43:19 pm »
Speaking from the double point of view of a finisher (2013) and volunteer (2017), I would like to say one thing: don't try to overplan. Nothing will go as planned, due to weather, mechanicals, etc., but if you and your bicycle are in a good enough shape, just enjoy the ride and you WILL finish. If you are not in a good enough shape, no amount of mathematical modelization will help!

A

Re: Likelyhood of Finishing
« Reply #12 on: 08 April, 2022, 03:48:53 pm »
Is there a published chart of cut off times based on any given start time, ie Starting at Debden at say 6.00am for example. Or is it simple maths of distance into time?

Go to Friday and add 5 hours. For instance with a 6am start on Sunday, your cut off time is 11am on Friday. A 125 hours is 5 days and 5 hours.

Re: Likelyhood of Finishing
« Reply #13 on: 08 April, 2022, 04:05:30 pm »
I think some people whinging about start times as documented on facebook could have done with hearing that!

Haven’t been on FB since 2018, but I can imagine.  Let me guess, most of the early morning starts oversubscribed by fair margin.  Danial and Roger warn them that they will get moved to much later in the day.  They ignore the advice. They get moved into the afternoon. They moan that their ride is ruined or some such.

Re: Likelyhood of Finishing
« Reply #14 on: 08 April, 2022, 04:06:49 pm »
Ajax Bay I think Phil's chart is of the north-bound time-in-hand at Thirsk.

Yes it is.

Re: Likelyhood of Finishing
« Reply #15 on: 08 April, 2022, 04:11:27 pm »
Just found my graph (sad) from last time, I had 7.5 hours at Thirsk (north) but ended up in the < 50 % group. :facepalm:  Not as a result of Instagrammingnted on facebook

I arrived at Thirsk with just over 7 hours time in hand in 2013 thanks to my stomach problems.  I’d already had 6 hours sleep by then to try and recover.  My 2013 finish shows I can make it round if I just try and keep going no matter how slow as long as legs turn and bike works.  But I’m going to try and avoid stomach problems this time, by not making the avoidable mistake I made at Kirton that year that was the cause.

Genosse Brymbo

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Re: Likelyhood of Finishing
« Reply #16 on: 08 April, 2022, 06:30:39 pm »
No correlation.  I’ve posted elsewhere that the best finish rate was the 5am 100 hour riders, followed by the last 117 hour 5 min group.  The rest of the starts had very similar if not as good finish rates.   There’s no strong correlation between start time and chances of finishing.

I think some people whinging about start times as documented on facebook could have done with hearing that!
However, stats showing no correlation won't help you if you're a morning person, like myself.  6.30 starts on LEL 2013 (arrived Thirsk 23:37) and the 1500km HBK 2018 made for enjoyable rides and ability to finish with some time to spare.  An 18:30 start on PBP 2015 made for a difficult ride, despite it being shorter, over easier terrain, and offering more opportunity to ride in a group.

I second The French Tandem's advice at reply #11.  The brevet card (with start time offset applied as described upthread) is the plan and, in my view, any further planning which you can't hold in your head is unnecessary.  Have a vague mental plan but be prepared to change it as circumstances change. 
The present is a foreign country: they do things differently here.

Fidgetbuzz

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Re: Likelyhood of Finishing
« Reply #17 on: 08 April, 2022, 09:44:49 pm »
Haven’t been on FB since 2018, but I can imagine.  Let me guess, most of the early morning starts oversubscribed by fair margin.  Danial and Roger warn them that they will get moved to much later in the day.  They ignore the advice. They get moved into the afternoon. They moan that their ride is ruined or some such.

You have missed your true calling .. sitting in a tent with a crystal ball charging a fortune and predicting the future with complete accuracy !!!
I was an accountant until I discovered Audax !!

cygnet

  • I'm part of the association
Re: Likelyhood of Finishing
« Reply #18 on: 08 April, 2022, 10:27:05 pm »
For the record I (at least) am not moaning. I was interested in the chart statistics Phil produced, since I have approx 5 hr difference in my start time to previous editions.

Having thought about it a bit more, people reaching Thirsk with a "bunch of time in hand" most likely stopped for a sleep when they got there which would not be reflected in the chart. People arriving with less time in hand probably slept already and departed much more rapidly.

So nothing more to think about really. Expecting to cycle slightly slower through more darkness, so slightly less TIH wherever I arrive on the first night/morning
Reasonably Inconsiderate

CrazyEnglishTriathlete

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Re: Likelyhood of Finishing
« Reply #19 on: 10 April, 2022, 07:32:27 pm »
One thing that may make a big difference to the likelihood of finishing is the wind.  Last time there was a stiff headwind for much of the way back.  Running the catering at St Ives, we were constantly pushing the time for the return bulge back - because riders were taking longer than expected.  The above graph will hold true if the same headwinds are prevalent this year, but if there's a calm or the wind is more favourable, then that can give a psychological boost to riders and you would expect better percentages.
Eddington Numbers 128 (imperial), 178 (metric) 542 (furlongs)  113 (nautical miles)

Re: Likelyhood of Finishing
« Reply #20 on: 11 April, 2022, 11:03:26 am »


I think some people whinging about start times as documented on facebook could have done with hearing that!

While I got a much later start that I would have liked, I just look at it as giving me Friday to use to finish the ride, instead of needing to finish by Thursday night. If I consider the ride as 6 x 250, instead of 5 x 300 it seems much less daunting.

Eddington  109miles

Re: Likelyhood of Finishing
« Reply #21 on: 11 April, 2022, 11:06:57 am »
For the record I (at least) am not moaning. I was interested in the chart statistics Phil produced, since I have approx 5 hr difference in my start time to previous editions.

Having thought about it a bit more, people reaching Thirsk with a "bunch of time in hand" most likely stopped for a sleep when they got there which would not be reflected in the chart. People arriving with less time in hand probably slept already and departed much more rapidly.

So nothing more to think about really. Expecting to cycle slightly slower through more darkness, so slightly less TIH wherever I arrive on the first night/morning

this is difficult to determine, but sleeping before 400km on a long ride seems early to me. What time limit is the time in hand based on? presumably not 27 hours, like a 400 BRM, as that would mean people arriving in much less than 20 hours.

Eddington  109miles

Re: Likelyhood of Finishing
« Reply #22 on: 11 April, 2022, 12:39:12 pm »
It was based on either the 100 hour or 117 hour 5 min time limits (based on what the riders had chosen) pro rated for the distance. LEL control timings are based on even pacing, rather than the PBP model of faster for first 600km.

Going on the 125 hour limit for this year.   You get 370 / 1519 * 125 = 30 hours 26 mins to reach Malton northbound.   If you want to arrive there say 9 hours ahead of time limit then you need to cover the 370km in 21 hours 26 mins.  Thus it is not about riding there as a quick a pace as possible to manage that, it’s about minimising your stop time over those 21 hours 26 mins. That may involve bouncing an early control if food queues are long. You could have 4 hours sleep first night and still arrive at Malton 5 hours ahead of your limit, at same pace on road. Thus no sleep at Malton and push on into second day.

There are 4 controls before Malton. If you spend 1 hour at each control.  Then you need to cover 370km in 17 hours 26 mins to get 9 hours ahead of the time limit. You need to average 21.2km/h on the road. If you spend 45 mins at each control, you need to average 20.1km/h on the road. If you spend 30 mins at each control, you need to average 19km/h on the road.  You get the picture, stopped time matters.

Re: Likelyhood of Finishing
« Reply #23 on: 11 April, 2022, 01:31:11 pm »
I think this sis so important in terms of banking time for the hills and the return headwind. It is tempting to sit and eat food, chat and be slow leaving.