Yet Another Cycling Forum
General Category => The Knowledge => Health & Fitness => Topic started by: TPMB12 on 30 December, 2021, 05:59:02 pm
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Is covid simply something that everyone will get eventually and we just need to delay that day as long as possible to limit its effects?
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Yep.
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So far so good.....
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Yes, and probably several times.
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Actually it isn't inevitable. If the holy grail of herd immunity is achieved assuming that it might in fact be achievable then it is not inevitable that everybody will catch covid.
My own (and mllePB's) experience of a severe winter cold / flu these past two weeks surprise and disappoint me in equal measure that we have managed on very little mixing* to catch flu but once again dodge covid**.
* We have been sensibly and extremely cautious since March 2020 and even when the shackles were off we mixed very little indeed. Until our bout of flu we have both been completely sniffle free.
** Tested.
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Ok, stupid question, if you can catch a cold or flu then why do you think that means you won't get covid?
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My own (and mllePB's) experience of a severe winter cold / flu these past two weeks surprise and disappoint me in equal measure that we have managed on very little mixing* to catch flu but once again dodge covid**.
** Tested.
I too have had a cold - tested negative twice - I'm convinced that I caught it on a crowded bus I was on for less than 10 minutes.
It's the first illness I've caught germ-wise in maybe 18 months.
My guess is that the next variant will be milder, but just as transmissible. Rinse & repeat. It will be thought of as a 'normal infection' - but if it encourages people (& employers) to accept that staying at home with cold/ flu symptoms for 10 days is the right thing to do, then I'm all for it
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For those thinking they have a cold, the estimate is that 75% of colds currently are covid.
Swab your tonsils.
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Ok, stupid question, if you can catch a cold or flu then why do you think that means you won't get covid?
Quite.
I'm still baffled by the lurgy I had the other week. Negative for COVID-19 on both lateral flow and PCR tests. Barakta hypothesises that it's like when teachers get ill at half-term, because it coincided with her needing less care.
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For those thinking they have a cold, the estimate is that 75% of colds currently are covid.
Swab your tonsils.
This.
Or try a Chinese anal swab.
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For those thinking they have a cold, the estimate is that 75% of colds currently are covid.
Swab your tonsils.
Hang on, if everyone's got covid already...
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But they haven't and getting one variant doesn't preclude you getting another variant. Also, it has been shown that you can catch the same variant more than once thus even if you are less I'll you are still a potential spreader.
Having said that Prof. JVT's second Royal Lecture (BBC4 very recently) gives a good if well dumbed down analysis of how contageon process. Mildly amusing and educational after dinner viewing we found.
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For those thinking they have a cold, the estimate is that 75% of colds currently are covid.
Swab your tonsils.
In my case PCR and LFTs were negative. It is certain that covid, cold & influenza are coexisting and will continue to do so.
My hope is that in public health terms the distinction between covid and cold will become less and less important (it's wishful thinking but hijacked from something I read somewhere).
Similar to flu, though, there likely will be variants occurring, or remaining, particularly outside population centres tgat have greater mortality. The vaccine programmes should be able to keep these in check even if it means 'firefighting'.
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I thought that it was more like half of all "colds" were likely to be covid but I guess as Omicron spreads rapidly that ratio will change.
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A GP trainee friend doing a video for her practice based on a morning's phone clinic (which she did from home cos she's awaiting PCR results): https://twitter.com/Ashfield_grange/status/1476920549574168577
Uncaptioned but the gist of the message is:
1) If you have any symptoms including snotty nose, sore throat and significant headache you need a PCR as lateral flows are for screening asymptomatic people and are unreliable in symptomatic people.
2) If you have had Covid vaccinations you can STILL get Covid. It is a bit less likely and a lot less likely to be severe, but you can still contract and transmit it. As per above, if symptomatic, get a PCR (and stay away from others).
3) If you have had Covid before with or without jabs, you can still get Covid again, see (1) re PCR for symptoms.
Of course whether you can GET PCRs at the moment is in doubt, but I guess the trick is to keep trying.
While you may have Covid mildly, there is no guarantee that another person you could transmit it to would also be mildly ill. We don't have stats on likely Long Covid from Omicron and while it is "less severe for most people" it is so transmissible that high levels of it in the community correlate to high NHS demand.
I don't think we're at the "can ignore it" and don't think we'll get there until we've vaccinated more of the world and been sensible. I expect 2022 to be a repeat of 2021 and not to be Covid free.
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That's pretty straightforward, Barakta - a good post. Have you thought of giving/selling that succinct summary to the governbent?
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Our latest batch of LFTs are nasal only. The swabs are too short to reach the tonsils.
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A study of NHS staff found some of them didn't seem to be able to catch Covid at all. There is a hypothesis that this is due to exposure to previous coronaviruses,leaving a strong T-cell response which clears the virus before there is enough of it to be detectable in a test. Some of them tested negative throughout but had raised T-cell activity.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03110-4
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I've generally been sensible with my precautions. I've followed advice and insisted students I deal with face to face are masked. Double jabbed & boosted (AZ/AZ/Pfizer)
I let my guard down once a few weeks ago and went to a gig and caught Covid. There was much singing & dancing and, as it turns out, it was a real spreader event. Several people on the band's small forum also reported contracting Covid - multiply that by the hundreds that were at the gig and I'm sure many more also caught it there. Fortunately, the worst of my symptoms was a very sore throat for a couple of days.
It has made me much more cautious of going anywhere involving crowds in confined spaces.
My nasal LF tests when displaying symptoms showed negative on the Monday following the Friday gig, but positive on Tuesday. I was still showing positive 13 days after the event via LF tests, but negative on days 14 & 15. A PCR test confirmed the positive.
My one gripe is that the NHS track & trace people didn't call me until 8 days after the event. As soon as I got my positive LF test, I contacted everyone I'd had face-to-face contact with since the gig and posted on the band forum. By the time T&T contacted me, the stable door was open and the horse long gone. I posted my Positive LF result on the NHS app the same day I got the positive.
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That's pretty straightforward, Barakta - a good post. Have you thought of giving/selling that succinct summary to the governbent?
We have jokingly said that if we get to take over the world that Dr Hannah Barham-Brown gets to be health minister. If only our government could have some GPs feeding in the common confusions and a clear campaign based on that.
Of course my view is that they don't WANT to be clear, it doesn't suit their let Covid rip and then blame people for being irresponsible agenda.
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Isn't the virus behind covid a coronavirus like the cold, each variant is a mutation of the virus and yet they're identifying it as different from a cold. What is the difference? If covid is mild but non covid colds can be severe, I've had two real humdingers in my life, then can't you just say a bad cold (coronavirus) is covid? How accurate are assessments of covid? Could some be a non covid coronavirus that simply had bad enough symptoms to get lumped in? I guess the PCR test distinguishes between covid coronavirus and common cold coronavirus on an RNA level or something like that.
The other point, if covid ends up becoming less severe for most people could colds and flu become more dangerous but covid still gets tighter controls?
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Coronavirus is a whole class of viruses with many species, just as humans and gorillas are both apes but different species. The one causing Covid is known as Sars-Cov-2.
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Even talking about SARS-CoV-2 in the singular is a bit of a fudge to stop our minds exploding! Check out https://nextstrain.org/ncov/gisaid/global
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I thought I have read that even the common cold and influenza as well as SARS, MERS and other viruses we have heard of are all types of coronaviruses.
Influenza is not a corona virus, but SARS, and MERS are.
It was because of research that was ongoing on SARS and MERS, that we were able to get some of the vaccine stuff out to the public so fast. Remember the plague we currently have is called SARS‑CoV‑2, implying at the very least an existence of SARS-CoV-1.
There are other virii in the coronavirus family, but also "The common cold" actually covers a number of different virii, some are are in the corona family, others are rhinoviruses.
One of the big problems we have hit up against with this plague is the in-specificity of language. "it's just like flu" they said. Except most of what people have that they call "the flu" is not actually Influenza. It's got some flu like symptoms (which covers a whole host of illnesses), but often is not actually caused by Influenza. So when scientists compare SARS-CoV-2 to influenza, what people hear is "Oh, it's like when I had a fever and muscle aches last xmas, so I took a double dose of lemsip and went to work", where as doctors and those who have had influenza go "oh fuck this isn't playing games". A doctor I knew used to say "Unless it felt like you were hit by a train, it wasn't flu". I'd love to see widespread availability of LFT's for the main flu families. So people had a better understanding of wtf it is that they are catching, and spreading.
The list of illnesses with "flu like symptoms" is rather long - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza-like_illness and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_infectious_diseases_causing_flu-like_syndrome
J
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I’ve never had flu, had a cold early last October and cold before that was 2014. So it’s not inevitable everyone will get a disease from circulating viruses, or if they do, all that frequently.
We also need to distinguish between the virus 🦠 and the disease it causes Covid 19. Like the difference between HIV and AIDS.
It’s quite likely, if it hasn’t happened already that we will all pretty much get exposed to SARS-Cov-2 family of viruses, but it’s not inevitable that we will all get Covid 19 from that.
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There are other virii in the coronavirus family, but also "The common cold" actually covers a number of different virii, some are are in the corona family, others are rhinoviruses.
No. No, no, no. The plural of virus is viruses. If you're going to insist on faux-Latin endings, at least be consistent and use rhinovirii.
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There are other virii in the coronavirus family, but also "The common cold" actually covers a number of different virii, some are are in the corona family, others are rhinoviruses.
No. No, no, no. The plural of virus is viruses. If you're going to insist on faux-Latin endings, at least be consistent and use rhinovirii.
I couldn't remember which it was, so just threw both in, on the basis one of them will be right...
J
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Most common colds are rhinoviruses but there are four coronaviruses that only cause cold symptoms, and have been circulating for years.
The other known human coronaviruses are:
The original SARS (more lethal, thought to be extinct)
Covid
MERS (much more lethal but not widespread)
The last three all probably came from bats. Bats have a bizarre immune system and can incubate viruses while not being affected by them.
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I read about the Bat immune system somewhere. Apparently their metabolism is so fast, that viruses don’t get a chance to cause disease. The viruses are moving in slow motion whilst getting battered by the Bat armoury .
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I suspect that we are virtually at the point of no return. The messaging from the Government (=Johnson) is so vague and imprecise that a big percentage of the population are convincing themselves that whatever they want to do will be alright.
Last week there was a funeral in the village I live in. A wake in the (rather small) pub followed. Publican and about 30+ people have Covid.
Because the pub is closed some village residents have been investigating a local venue for a New Years Eve celebration.
They’ll still all tell you that they’re being careful and responsible.
Nearby is Uttoxeter. In today’s Times is a photo of a packed crowd at the races. Apparently people had to have a negative test to get in ( I suggest that that is just a “I’ve done the test guv”) and are advised to wear masks. Not one single mask in the photo.
Personally, with what I know about disease control in animals, I would have had everything closed down as a firebreak weeks ago.
It seems to me that the AvianFlu is being more systematically controlled than Covid.
Therefore, in answer to the question, I think Covid is close to becoming endemic, and we will be living with the consequences.
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Just one point about LFTs. They are good for population screening as they are simple and easy to perform.
They are less sensitive than PCR. That is they will detect very accurately a high viral load (someone very infectious) but may miss someone just starting the disease or at the end. They are highly specific though and do not respond to anything else.
The PCR test is much more sensitive and will pick up even very small amounts of virus left beyond after infection has finished. Excellent for diagnosis but expensive and not suitable for daily testing.
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Quite a useful graphic I think which shows the difference between PCR, LFT and viral load over time.
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220101/cd45c290cd8b3f555f5eed90469e144e.jpg)
Cheers, Hugh
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1) If you have any symptoms including snotty nose, sore throat and significant headache you need a PCR as lateral flows are for screening asymptomatic people and are unreliable in symptomatic people.
I think this will be a big issue as the govt has been selling the message of doing lat flows and not pcrs. I think 90+% of the population willn ot realise they will need a PCR whenever they have a cold and won't isolate for cold symptoms (whether they can get a pcr or not)
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Personally, with what I know about disease control in animals, I would have had everything closed down as a firebreak weeks ago.
How would that have prevented covid becoming endemic? It's so freaking transmissible a firebreak would have slowed transmission and reduced hospital admissions (by what percentage is unclear, but probably relatively minor according to data from South Africa - data which has been pointing this way for several weeks now). But at what cost to the economy and people's other health (and mental health) problems?
All signs are that Omicron is indeed close to being endemic, but it's also far less dangerous than previous variants. I'm no Johnson supporter but in this case (and probably for the first time since Feb 2020) I'm in agreement with the current English guidelines, whereas I think the Welsh & Scottish have over-reacted - possibly for political reasons (i.e. "we are more responsible than the Tories").
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This is concerning: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59848160
Are they not quarantining people before shipping them to Antarctica? Seems unwise...
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This is concerning: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59848160
Are they not quarantining people before shipping them to Antarctica? Seems unwise...
I read somewhere that the BAS was quarrantining in South America before shipping people out, but that may not necessarily be 100% effective of course
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A study of NHS staff found some of them didn't seem to be able to catch Covid at all. There is a hypothesis that this is due to exposure to previous coronaviruses,leaving a strong T-cell response which clears the virus before there is enough of it to be detectable in a test. Some of them tested negative throughout but had raised T-cell activity.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03110-4
Interesting, does that mean that people like me, type 1 diabetic, caused by rogue t-cells could also be less likely to catch it? I've been extremely cautious on the basis of potential complications.
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1) If you have any symptoms including snotty nose, sore throat and significant headache you need a PCR as lateral flows are for screening asymptomatic people and are unreliable in symptomatic people.
I think this will be a big issue as the govt has been selling the message of doing lat flows and not pcrs. I think 90+% of the population willn ot realise they will need a PCR whenever they have a cold and won't isolate for cold symptoms (whether they can get a pcr or not)
A combo of ignorance about need for PCR and UKGov exacerbated attitude of it being cool not to care. Also many people who would be willing, can't do so because financially they get crap or not support.
All the medics I know are frustrated that they're talking to patient after patient who claims "I don't need a PCR test" or "I can't have Covid" while very likely having Covid and putting the medic and other patients at risk. Even screening carefully for face to face medicking, people who are ignorant/confused/dishonest are slipping through.
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All signs are that Omicron is indeed close to being endemic, but it's also far less dangerous than previous variants. I'm no Johnson supporter but in this case (and probably for the first time since Feb 2020) I'm in agreement with the current English guidelines, whereas I think the Welsh & Scottish have over-reacted - possibly for political reasons (i.e. "we are more responsible than the Tories").
Say that to the people who can't access multi-times delayed medical treatment because 25000 Covid patients has delayed 6 million planned surgeries. Many of those people will have poorer outcomes or die because of the delays.
Say that to the people whose A&E is saying "only life or death care available" and GPs are overwhelmed or shut down cos so many staff have Covid as well as increased demand.
Say that to the people vulnerable to Covid who can't access PCR testing in time or the emergency treatment because the referral system has overloaded and sends them round and round NHS111 circles of hell.
We didn't need a hard lockdown, but we could have had more people working from home, avoided larger spreader events, supported people to stay home if infectious and slowed it down a lot. We didn't need to ditch mask wearing, or make it so "cool" to be anti-mask that most places where masks are mandatory WON'T enforce it because their staff get so much abuse. Thanks to that, I won't even trust the places I should be able to trust because PEOPLE ARE SELFISH CUNTS and I can't expect low paid retail/transport staff to get abuse for enforcement.
I honestly think this post is ignorant and selfish.
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SARS and MERS I thought referred to respiratory syndrome and where it first appeared namely Sout Asia and Middle East. If COVID 19 appeared in middle east the virus author be a MERS denomination. The other n letters mean something too but I forget what.
I got told as a kid that if you were in your bed and a £50 note blew into your window if you could get it before your sister picked it up then it's not a flu. I have never had flu as even my worst cold I could get any £50 note that came near me!!!
I must admit I've had a few colds that caused me to pass out despite being slumped in a chair or lying in bed. Not sure what that was about. My worst cold perforated an eardrum but within 3 days of getting antibiotics I felt so much better and walked 50 miles in 16 hours. Passing out to about 80% in less than 4 days was a weird end to a nasty cold.
So do people think we'll get a new vaccine booster every season for the current pandemic virus and end the lockdowns or restrictions? I think the pandemic will only become endemic when the world has been double vaccinated with relevant boosters. The more with the vaccinations the less places of the world acting as a breeding ground for mutations. I think it's time the developed world stop using vaccine diplomacy and actually vaccinate the world properly.
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All signs are that Omicron is indeed close to being endemic, but it's also far less dangerous than previous variants. I'm no Johnson supporter but in this case (and probably for the first time since Feb 2020) I'm in agreement with the current English guidelines, whereas I think the Welsh & Scottish have over-reacted - possibly for political reasons (i.e. "we are more responsible than the Tories").
Say that to the people who can't access multi-times delayed medical treatment because 25000 Covid patients has delayed 6 million planned surgeries. Many of those people will have poorer outcomes or die because of the delays.
Say that to the people whose A&E is saying "only life or death care available" and GPs are overwhelmed or shut down cos so many staff have Covid as well as increased demand.
Say that to the people vulnerable to Covid who can't access PCR testing in time or the emergency treatment because the referral system has overloaded and sends them round and round NHS111 circles of hell.
We didn't need a hard lockdown, but we could have had more people working from home, avoided larger spreader events, supported people to stay home if infectious and slowed it down a lot. We didn't need to ditch mask wearing, or make it so "cool" to be anti-mask that most places where masks are mandatory WON'T enforce it because their staff get so much abuse. Thanks to that, I won't even trust the places I should be able to trust because PEOPLE ARE SELFISH CUNTS and I can't expect low paid retail/transport staff to get abuse for enforcement.
I honestly think this post is ignorant and selfish.
I think the problem is that there is a growing swell of “get over it, its not serious” when of course, it is still serious. We are where we are because of the vaccines, and at the moment, they appear to be working.
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That works both ways in sentiment though, as there are plenty of people saying "It's time to open everything up again so that eg my granny can get her hip replacement".
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All signs are that Omicron is indeed close to being endemic, but it's also far less dangerous than previous variants. I'm no Johnson supporter but in this case (and probably for the first time since Feb 2020) I'm in agreement with the current English guidelines, whereas I think the Welsh & Scottish have over-reacted - possibly for political reasons (i.e. "we are more responsible than the Tories").
Say that to the people who can't access multi-times delayed medical treatment because 25000 Covid patients has delayed 6 million planned surgeries. Many of those people will have poorer outcomes or die because of the delays.
Say that to the people whose A&E is saying "only life or death care available" and GPs are overwhelmed or shut down cos so many staff have Covid as well as increased demand.
Say that to the people vulnerable to Covid who can't access PCR testing in time or the emergency treatment because the referral system has overloaded and sends them round and round NHS111 circles of hell.
We didn't need a hard lockdown, but we could have had more people working from home, avoided larger spreader events, supported people to stay home if infectious and slowed it down a lot. We didn't need to ditch mask wearing, or make it so "cool" to be anti-mask that most places where masks are mandatory WON'T enforce it because their staff get so much abuse. Thanks to that, I won't even trust the places I should be able to trust because PEOPLE ARE SELFISH CUNTS and I can't expect low paid retail/transport staff to get abuse for enforcement.
I honestly think this post is ignorant and selfish.
You are entitled to your opinion. No need to be so rude. People can have other opinions you know - should they be shouted down and insulted?
I notice you didn't include the first half of my post in the quote - you know, the bit that gave the reasoning for my conclusion.
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There are other virii in the coronavirus family, but also "The common cold" actually covers a number of different virii, some are are in the corona family, others are rhinoviruses.
No. No, no, no. The plural of virus is viruses. If you're going to insist on faux-Latin endings, at least be consistent and use rhinovirii.
I couldn't remember which it was, so just threw both in, on the basis one of them will be right...
J
One of three ain't bad, to quote Meatloaf (no again). So strictly speaking it's no, no, yes. :thumbsup:
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1) If you have any symptoms including snotty nose, sore throat and significant headache you need a PCR as lateral flows are for screening asymptomatic people and are unreliable in symptomatic people.
I think this will be a big issue as the govt has been selling the message of doing lat flows and not pcrs. I think 90+% of the population willn ot realise they will need a PCR whenever they have a cold and won't isolate for cold symptoms (whether they can get a pcr or not)
I was gently trying to make the point that barakta’s friend is incorrect and has made the wrong conclusion from the evidence. LFTs are very good at diagnosing symptomatic people.
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There are other virii in the coronavirus family, but also "The common cold" actually covers a number of different virii, some are are in the corona family, others are rhinoviruses.
No. No, no, no. The plural of virus is viruses. If you're going to insist on faux-Latin endings, at least be consistent and use rhinovirii.
as I understand it, virus is neuter in Lat. so it' plural would be vira. Even if it wasn't, the plural would probably be viri - don't know where the extra i is coming from, unless it's from trying too hard. Viruses is much better - and no, that shouldn't be ARE much better! We need to pick our nits more carefully!
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SARS and MERS I thought referred to respiratory syndrome and where it first appeared namely Sout Asia and Middle East. If COVID 19 appeared in middle east the virus author be a MERS denomination. The other n letters mean something too but I forget what.
Severe acute respiratory syndrome. And Middle East Respiratory Syndrome.
J
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1) If you have any symptoms including snotty nose, sore throat and significant headache you need a PCR as lateral flows are for screening asymptomatic people and are unreliable in symptomatic people.
I think this will be a big issue as the govt has been selling the message of doing lat flows and not pcrs. I think 90+% of the population willn ot realise they will need a PCR whenever they have a cold and won't isolate for cold symptoms (whether they can get a pcr or not)
I was gently trying to make the point that barakta’s friend is incorrect and has made the wrong conclusion from the evidence. LFTs are very good at diagnosing symptomatic people.
Which is what the graph upthread indicates also.
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Shades of "Dont' Look Up". Thousands of people are dying around the world every day because of CV19 and here we are arguing about the plural form of a word. Homo sapiens? I do wonder about that.
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All signs are that Omicron is indeed close to being endemic, but it's also far less dangerous than previous variants. I'm no Johnson supporter but in this case (and probably for the first time since Feb 2020) I'm in agreement with the current English guidelines, whereas I think the Welsh & Scottish have over-reacted - possibly for political reasons (i.e. "we are more responsible than the Tories").
Say that to the people who can't access multi-times delayed medical treatment because 25000 Covid patients has delayed 6 million planned surgeries. Many of those people will have poorer outcomes or die because of the delays.
Say that to the people whose A&E is saying "only life or death care available" and GPs are overwhelmed or shut down cos so many staff have Covid as well as increased demand.
Say that to the people vulnerable to Covid who can't access PCR testing in time or the emergency treatment because the referral system has overloaded and sends them round and round NHS111 circles of hell.
We didn't need a hard lockdown, but we could have had more people working from home, avoided larger spreader events, supported people to stay home if infectious and slowed it down a lot. We didn't need to ditch mask wearing, or make it so "cool" to be anti-mask that most places where masks are mandatory WON'T enforce it because their staff get so much abuse. Thanks to that, I won't even trust the places I should be able to trust because PEOPLE ARE SELFISH CUNTS and I can't expect low paid retail/transport staff to get abuse for enforcement.
I honestly think this post is ignorant and selfish.
I'm largely in agreement with barakta but I can understand where you're coming from toontra.
It does look like that Boorish Johnson may have been bullied into something approaching a reasonable decision (that's how it will be enthusiastically spun by the right wing press) for the wrong reasons: basically, fingers crossed and hope it's not going to be too bad even though there isn't enough data to help decide either way. The Economy !!!!!!*
I can't begin to hope that he or, more pertinently, the CRG are wrong because that will mean lots of seriously ill/dead people.
Seeing the rate of increase in infections and, from what is also being reported, the increase in hospitalisations I do fear the worse.
I've just upgraded my mask wearing. I've always done it but I'm now going to wear FFP3 standard when I'm shopping/ordering a drink to take outside**. For customer visits (if they're still allowed January onwards) I'll turn up as I have done with a mask on and take it from there. Cheeringly, all my recent indoor meetings have been in large rooms, windows open sitting apart or I've been looking at production kit in very draughty factories***. My company have given me carte blanche to refuse to go somewhere that I reckon isn't safe or to even stop travelling if I think that's best.
Ultimately I think we're all going to get this virus; let's just hope it's an understood/recognised variant and not a mutation that is as transmissible as Micron but has more serious consequences.
Let's also hope that Micron doesn't run rife in the vulnerable (as referenced by barakta) and the unvaccinated.
I've very little sympathy for the intentionally non-vaccinated but they are really going to clog up the NHS and stop "more deserving" cases getting treatment if/when they start getting ill.
*I still struggle to understand why the loons in the Govt CRG don't realise that stopping spread as soon as possible (go early, go hard, go wider) means that the subsequent recovery will be quicker and less economically damaging.
**Still going to the pub (under constant review; beer in the park may make a comeback), no way I'll sit inside.
*** Not ideal for processing polyurethanes but I'll take it for now :).
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I read about the Bat immune system somewhere. Apparently their metabolism is so fast, that viruses don’t get a chance to cause disease. The viruses are moving in slow motion whilst getting battered by the Bat armoury .
This is one of those things that is sort of true without being entirely true. Bats are unusual, in part because they have a damped immune response, and it's an immune response that causes many of the worst symptoms of any viral infection. They have modifications to several major components of their immune recognition system which means they can mount a standard interferon defence without initiation of a cytokine cascade (it's this that causes the serious inflammation-related problems). This does mean they make for a good potential viral reservoir.
That said, I've seen it quoted that most humans have several ongoing viral infections at any moment, and those are the ones we know about. Viruses are the most profligate and successful 'organisms' on the planet. The majority of these infections you don't notice, the others have minor symptoms. In the most part, we've reached an evolutionary balance with the vast number of microbes that live on and in us. A minute number of organisms are pathogenic, this is a testament to co-evolution. Any organism is a reservoir slopping over with viruses. That includes me and you.
Fact is, SARS-CoV-2 is a very boring virus. It does nothing special. Its only grab at stardom was stumbling into a human population and catching a break that enabled it to spread. Even that wasn't special, the propensity for coronaviruses to do this is well known (it is SARS-CoV-2). The paradox is that it's not even that bad, to the vast majority of people, it's a minor infection aligned with current coronaviruses. But, and I keep saying this, it's a numbers game – with a massive number of infections, even a minute number of significant infections is a lot of people. Which is what we have been watching. We've all be inculcated on viruses as being some kind of hyper-ebola and zombie plagues. Reality is more often slow and deadly and that numbers game, and perhaps this is why we're being so terrible at managing it. We're trying to apply blockbuster narratives to real life and coming up disappointed. Equally, I'm not sure the fatalistic messaging that OMG OMICRON IS GOING TO GET YOU! is doomed to anything other than failure because it's not reflective of most people experience of having Covid. We have created a dissonance.
As we can now do unprecedented levels of genomic sequencing (and I'm starting to question the time and money we are now dedicating to this) we're created a somewhat artifactual series of variants like bad guys in a movie, and perhaps to satisfy the modern need for a constantly developing narrative. Again SARS-CoV-2 isn't doing anything new, having stumbled into being able to spread in a mostly-immune naive human population, it did just that, spread as fast as our creaky underfunded public health systems could let it.
Then we were lucky enough for unprecedented vaccine success (and I don't mean to denigrate the efforts of those involved, but I'm pretty sure that no one would have speculated we'd have debuted not one but several vaccines with >75% efficiency in little over a year). Combined with immunity through exposure, this created a wall of immunity in many populations. In these populations, there's a huge selection pressure for any virus that continue to reproduce. So, ipso facto, any variant spreading in an immune population is evading that immunity. You don't need to know anything about that virus genome, this is basic biology 101. You don't need to spend trillions of dollars on research, this is evolutionary theory at its most basic. I've been shocked that so many clinical scientists I've read really struggle to understand (or at least articulate) evolution as the fundamental driving force. To be clear, every virus is doing the same as SARS-CoV-2, constantly mutating and the results being selected for fitness.
Humans already have several endemic coronaviruses, it's quite possible and likely, like many human pathogens, they came over in similar zoonotic spillovers. That they persist tells us that we don't form full and persistent sterilizing immunity (which is rare) but we reach a similar co-evolutionary balance with SARS-CoV-2. This may take several years of vaccination to protect the more vulnerable. Endemicity might not be the worst outcome, it ensures that we maintain some immunity (and a higher probability of having some immunity against future spillovers or outbreaks of Covid from whatever reservoir we drive it into). It also explains the nonsensicality of the zero-covid argument. We were never going to eliminate or eradicate once it had started to spread.
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Interesting and educational post as always ian (and one of the joys of yACF).
Some points I'd like further clarification on if you don't mind and, for disclosure, I'm an industrial chemist and I can interpret data, see trends and understand (basic) bio-chem. Perhaps more relevantly, one of my best friends is a geneticist and I owe most of my knowledge of PCR and virus evolution to him (the rest I learned via Google ;)). We've had lots of discussions about Covid. Several* of these discussions have involved alcohol.
"Fact is, SARS-CoV-2 is a very boring virus. It does nothing special."
Yes, but isn't it different enough to infect (and kill) a significant number of a naive population as it would seem to have done ?
"Equally, I'm not sure the fatalistic messaging that OMG OMICRON IS GOING TO GET YOU! is doomed to anything other than failure because it's not reflective of most people experience of having Covid. We have created a dissonance."
Aren't most if not all of us going to get Covid at some point and the "fatalistic" bit is slightly overdone ? I'm expecting to be infected by Omicrom at some point despite my best intentions. In some ways I'd regard it as a benefit because I assume/hope it would give me a "top up" to my 2xAZ, 1xflu and 1xModerna. Just so long as I don't get very ill and need a hospital bed or die or infect anyone else.
"As we can now do unprecedented levels of genomic sequencing (and I'm starting to question the time and money we are now dedicating to this)"
It's the last bit of this quotation that I wonder about. Surely we need to know what variants are out there so that we can see what's happening in the population and we can tailor treatments accordingly ? I'd be interested to know if, by observing the direction of mutations we can predict where the virus might be heading. I suspect not because, as I understand it, mutation is random and sometimes it works for the virus, most times not.
"Then we were lucky enough for unprecedented vaccine success (and I don't mean to denigrate the efforts of those involved, but I'm pretty sure that no one would have speculated we'd have debuted not one but several vaccines with >75% efficiency in little over a year)."
My biggest question in your post. Isn't it the case that if this virus had appeared 10, perhaps even 5 years ago, we wouldn't have had the technology to develop vaccines so quickly ? I'm particularly thinking of the mRNA vaccines but even the zoonotic types against Covid 19 ? Again isn't this where our (recently acquired) ability to genetically sequence the initial virus has helped the development of the vaccines and will help modification of future mRNA vaccines ? I'm not sure (from my position of not quite complete ignorance) where AZ go from here unless they can find a different virus to avoid our immune systems and deliver the vaccine.
*A definition of "several" that really means "most".
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Just out of curiosity, do you wrest ffp3 masks with those plastic valves to allow you to expel your breath more efficiently? Aren't they a little counterproductive in that they let your moist breath out without a filtering effect going on? Kind of like protecting yourself but not others?
It always annoyed me to see people swanning around supermarkets in 2020 wearing those ffp3 masks with the valves. Especially when they leaned over people's head to reach something from a shelf rather than waiting.
The removal of the face covering on trains a few months ago always seemed a bit daft. Countries in SE Asia have a culture of wearing them in crowds even before this pandemic yet we just have to ditch them in the middle of a pandemic just as soon as infections drop a bit then delay reintroduction when a variant of concern appears. I never stopped and to hell with the idiots looking at me as if I'm mad for still wearing them. One day people I the UK will stop being selfish and our government will stop pandering to various self interests but actually act on best scientific evidence, even make over cautious and preemptive decisions. Hit hard and early to recover quicker with fewer infections and deaths.
I'm negative about our nation and its decision making ability. I'm not just talking about government but the general public who can't see that we cannot be selfish with our own actions around this virus. Party now and potentially die later seems a daft idea to me.
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I'm negative about our nation and its decision making ability. I'm not just talking about government but the general public who can't see that we cannot be selfish with our own actions around this virus. Party now and potentially die later seems a daft idea to me.
These are the aspects of all this that have the most negative impact on my mental health.
I can put up with the isolation and the inconveniences, but seeing key workers and children thrown under the bus, seeing the same mistakes made time after time, seeing people mourn their loved ones, seeing the pandemic being exploited for mega profits for some whilst others queue at food banks, seeing the media fuel false binaries and freedom tropes, and seeing such rampant individualism... that's crushing me.
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I've (deliberately) steered clear of "vented" masks for the reasons that you've stated TPMB12.
I'm using this type:- https://www.medisave.co.uk/3m-aura-disposable-ffp3-healthcare-respirator-iir-1863.html
They were recommended by my geneticist friend (see above); that's what he used at work (NHS). The FFP3 masks that I infrequently have to use in my job are more "Darth Vader" (because isocyanates) than that type. I wouldn't want to wear a "work" mask at my local Sainsbury's*, not because it wouldn't be effective but because of the reaction it might provoke.
FWIW, in my local (Urmston) Sainsbury's*, mask wearing is pleasantly high and people do seem to be doing part of the "social distancing" bit again. A couple of miles away (and, it has to be said, about 10 years back in time) mask wearing in Stretford Mall is disappointingly low.
Anecdotally, after 2021's Manchester-Blackpool FNRttC, friend HelenB and I were travelling back on the train together, both of us wearing masks. Only people also wearing masks (the minority unfortunately) came and sat near us. Don't know why but several different couples/groups got on and off and mask wearing was the constant. Non mask wearers walked past where we were and they sat elsewhere.
Result :thumbsup:
"One day people in the UK will stop being selfish and our government will stop pandering to various self interests but actually act on best scientific evidence, even make over cautious and pre-emptive decisions. Hit hard and early to recover quicker with fewer infections and deaths."
I hope I live long enough to see this. I don't think I will.
*Other houses of toothy comestibles are available.
I sometimes visit Waitrose and Aldi but that's, perhaps, for another thread. A thread that I shan't start.
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If only it could have been predicted:- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/01/boris-johnson-asks-ministers-to-plan-for-covid-workplace-absences-of-up-to-25
:facepalm:
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I knobbled the bypass valves on barakta's mask (https://emergencyprotection.co.uk/product/o2-mask/) as soon as she got it. Mine (https://totobobo.co.uk/) doesn't have them.
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Do you wear that type of mask for the lip reading potential (as well as other benefits) Kim ?
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Do you wear that type of mask for the lip reading potential (as well as other benefits) Kim ?
That was the idea when I bought it, but you can't really lip-read through it, even before it fills with condensation. In practice lip-reading me is less of a problem than it is with other people because barakta's familiar with my voice, and I'll repeat / re-phrase / cue my speech / switch to BSL as necessary.
While the seal's more finicky than a proper silicone one, it does seal when you get it to sit right, which means no steamed-up glasses and presumably half-decent filtration.
The hospital use these for lip-readability: https://www.theclearmask.com/ I'm deeply sceptical about their efficacy from a SARS-Cov-2 perspective. The BSL interpreters have mostly been using visors, which are even worse.
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Do you wear that type of mask for the lip reading potential (as well as other benefits) Kim ?
That was the idea when I bought it, but you can't really lip-read through it, even before it fills with condensation. In practice lip-reading me is less of a problem than it is with other people because barakta's familiar with my voice, and I'll repeat / re-phrase / cue my speech / switch to BSL as necessary.
While the seal's more finicky than a proper silicone one, it does seal when you get it to sit right, which means no steamed-up glasses and presumably half-decent filtration.
The hospital use these for lip-readability: https://www.theclearmask.com/ I'm deeply sceptical about their efficacy from a SARS-Cov-2 perspective. The BSL interpreters have mostly been using visors, which are even worse.
The question you need to ask is why you are wearing a mask?
- To prevent me from getting Covid in a high viral load atmosphere
- To prevent me from getting Covid in a low viral load atmosphere
- To prevent me from passing on Covid when I am actually positive
- To be socially sensible and/or prevent /reduce transmission when I have asymptomatic disease
For the first you need a FFP3 mask which has been fit tested. This is done with test inhalation of a noxious agent which the mask stops. Not all FFP3 masks fit all people.
For the second almost anything which disrupts laminar flow and extensive travel of the droplets will be effective. So the infected wearing anything in front of the face will cause droplets to drop more rapidly in turbulent flow and me wearing a mask of any sort will again reduce the amount of virus containing water droplets which make their way around the mask and into my nasopharynx. Similarly for the third, any manner of mask will reduce droplet expulsion. Similarly for 4.
I will wear a FFP3 mask which I know fits and so will my wife when travelling on a plane and in the airport at each end. I would also wear one on the underground or in a busy pub.
The rest of the time I wear an ordinary mask or a double folded buff as it will do exactly what is appropriate in the circumstances.
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Shades of "Dont' Look Up". Thousands of people are dying around the world every day because of CV19 and here we are arguing about the plural form of a word. Homo sapiens? I do wonder about that.
You may have just hoisted yourself on your own petard with wondering about homo sapiens. What you appear to be suggesting is that nothing should be discussed or referred to except Covid; have I got that right? I'm already doing everything I can to avoid catching the virus or passing it on. Does everything else have to stop?
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The question you need to ask is why you are wearing a mask?
- To prevent me from getting Covid in a high viral load atmosphere
- To prevent me from getting Covid in a low viral load atmosphere
- To prevent me from passing on Covid when I am actually positive
- To be socially sensible and/or prevent /reduce transmission when I have asymptomatic disease
For the first you need a FFP3 mask which has been fit tested. This is done with test inhalation of a noxious agent which the mask stops. Not all FFP3 masks fit all people.
For the second almost anything which disrupts laminar flow and extensive travel of the droplets will be effective. So the infected wearing anything in front of the face will cause droplets to drop more rapidly in turbulent flow and me wearing a mask of any sort will again reduce the amount of virus containing water droplets which make their way around the mask and into my nasopharynx. Similarly for the third, any manner of mask will reduce droplet expulsion. Similarly for 4.
Hang on, I thought it was well established (by everyone except the government) that SARS-Cov-2 is spread by aerosols, not just droplets. We should all be using FFP3 masks.
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Droplets= aerosol. The virus is expelled in a shower of aerosolised droplets which travel in a plume. The virus particles themselves are relatively poor at surviving on their own in a dry atmosphere or on a surface.
Hence why I do not bother with anything more than social hand care anymore.
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Interesting and educational post as always ian (and one of the joys of yACF).
Some points I'd like further clarification on if you don't mind and, for disclosure, I'm an industrial chemist and I can interpret data, see trends and understand (basic) bio-chem. Perhaps more relevantly, one of my best friends is a geneticist and I owe most of my knowledge of PCR and virus evolution to him (the rest I learned via Google ;)). We've had lots of discussions about Covid. Several* of these discussions have involved alcohol.
"Fact is, SARS-CoV-2 is a very boring virus. It does nothing special."
Yes, but isn't it different enough to infect (and kill) a significant number of a naive population as it would seem to have done ?
That's the thing, we were mostly immunologically naive (possible there's some residual immunity derived from exposure to other coronaviruses, which may explain why some people got it worse than others), so there was little to stop it. Which is likely the standard scenario in a zoonotic spillover. It's basic evolution, throw any organism into a suitable new environment without competition or predation and it'll quickly fill it.
"Equally, I'm not sure the fatalistic messaging that OMG OMICRON IS GOING TO GET YOU! is doomed to anything other than failure because it's not reflective of most people experience of having Covid. We have created a dissonance."
Aren't most if not all of us going to get Covid at some point and the "fatalistic" bit is slightly overdone ? I'm expecting to be infected by Omicrom at some point despite my best intentions. In some ways I'd regard it as a benefit because I assume/hope it would give me a "top up" to my 2xAZ, 1xflu and 1xModerna. Just so long as I don't get very ill and need a hospital bed or die or infect anyone else.
I think there's been some deliberation in the campaigns to drive the message that's it is you – the individual – who will suffer. That makes some sense, people are selfish, so public health messaging based around people's innate selfishness isn't a bad bet. Now we're in a phase of the pandemic where it's clear that to most people, covid is a minor infection, and that's people's experience, there's a dissonance between what they're being told and what they are seeing. Of course, if you've been vaccinated – even without the booster – your odds of becoming seriously ill with covid are tiny. There's no easy answer to this, of course, other than I think the message is no longer resonant.
"As we can now do unprecedented levels of genomic sequencing (and I'm starting to question the time and money we are now dedicating to this)"
It's the last bit of this quotation that I wonder about. Surely we need to know what variants are out there so that we can see what's happening in the population and we can tailor treatments accordingly ? I'd be interested to know if, by observing the direction of mutations we can predict where the virus might be heading. I suspect not because, as I understand it, mutation is random and sometimes it works for the virus, most times not.
I'm not down on sequencing per se, this is a fantastic advance and – for a start – massively accelerated vaccine development. It's the volume and resources involved in what, in some respects, has become little more than sophisticated stamp collecting. People wiser than me have commented that they could achieve effective genomic surveillance and phylogeny with far fewer sequences. It's also created an obsession with variants. It doesn't really matter what the genomic sequence of a virus is – or how we label any particular collection of mutations – it is the functional consequence of what is a predictably random process. We threw up a wall of immunity and created a huge selection pressure of any variant that isn't affected by that immunity. Again, this is expected – facing massive levels of vaccination and immunity through exposure, either there would be no variant of the virus that could continue to survive (in which case we'd see it disappear) or there are variants that can survive and suddenly have the advantage and can spread fast (which is what happened with omicron).
It's difficult to predict any evolution items since a beneficial mutation is driven by fitness. It has to produce something that benefits the organism in its current environment. Omicron has an advantage because it can spread in individuals with some immunity whereas other variants can't, but omicron might struggle in other environments. Evolution isn't a process of improvement, SARS-CoV-2 isn't getting better. Evolution is a process of survival bias.
"Then we were lucky enough for unprecedented vaccine success (and I don't mean to denigrate the efforts of those involved, but I'm pretty sure that no one would have speculated we'd have debuted not one but several vaccines with >75% efficiency in little over a year)."
My biggest question in your post. Isn't it the case that if this virus had appeared 10, perhaps even 5 years ago, we wouldn't have had the technology to develop vaccines so quickly ? I'm particularly thinking of the mRNA vaccines but even the zoonotic types against Covid 19 ? Again isn't this where our (recently acquired) ability to genetically sequence the initial virus has helped the development of the vaccines and will help modification of future mRNA vaccines ? I'm not sure (from my position of not quite complete ignorance) where AZ go from here unless they can find a different virus to avoid our immune systems and deliver the vaccine.
*A definition of "several" that really means "most".
Sequencing is a lot faster and cheaper, and a ~30 kilobase RNA genome is a straightforward and quick task with modern platforms, so the SARS-CoV-2 genome was sequenced almost immediately by the Chinese. That said, the first full viral sequence was completed in 1976 (admittedly a Herculean task for a virus about a sixth the size of SARS-CoV-2). The 48 kilobase Lamba phage was sequenced in 1981 (but took three years). A significant number of human viruses were fully sequenced in the early to mid 2010s. Sequencing SARS-CoV-2 wouldn't have proved an insurmountable challenge a few years back, though it is one of the largest RNA viruses. Having quick and fast sequencing technology made everything better, of course.
Sequencing works using two main methods – short reads (usually under 500 bases), in which case you chop up DNA into lots of small overlapping sections and sequence those and the reassemble a final larger contiguous sequence and long reads which can process long segments (up to 30 kilobases, though it can be pushed a lot higher) – so fewer overlaps are necessary for a long contiguous sequence or an entire genome. From the mid-2000s, massive parallelization has vastly accelerated sequencing, much of this being technological fallout from the Human Genome Project.
Certainly the ability to go from sequence to vaccine development in literally a few days was massive. You could literally download the sequence in the morning and be working on a vaccine in the afternoon. That was huge (and fortuitous), along with the fact that both nucleic acid-based and viral-vector vaccine development platforms were already established. What, of course, was more fortuitous was that they worked with high efficiency. It's often overlooked, but it's wasn't just a success of developing a vaccine, but the massive challenge of manufacturing and distributing that vaccine.
Whether the success of these platforms is replicated for other diseases is an interesting question that a lot of people are asking (bear in mind that we have spent decades trying and failing to find a vaccine for HIV). I don't think anyone really expected the mRNA vaccines to be so effective (though the principle was sound), in many ways it is an amazingly simple idea of simply jabbing someone with mRNA and having their muscle tissue produce enough protein from that mRNA to generate a good immune response. The viral-vectored platforms were a known safer bet since they were developed essentially as a trojan horse. Virally vectored vaccines, of course, generate an immune response to the delivery vehicle (for AZ, a modified chimp adenovirus), so there are diminishing returns, but the delivery virus can be modified to evade some of this, plus there are other viral delivery platforms).
The downside of both of these is that they are very focused on the single spike protein – other more old-school methods may generate a broader response that makes it more difficult for immune-evading variants to be developed. There's plenty of work ongoing to create vaccines using these technologies that generate multiple epitopes (variants of the spike protein or other components of the SARS-CoV-2 virus). These would, in theory, dramatically limit the probability of immune-evading variants, since they'd require a series of mutations that are improbably and if they did simultaneously occur, they'd deplete the overall fitness of the virus so much that it would likely not have much of a future.
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Thanks for taking the time to reply ian; I appreciate your explanations.
Beer on me if I'm ever near the asbestos palace provided I don't get eaten by the bears.
ETA: typo corrected: original post was "eaten by beers". Should have been "eaten by bears". The asbestos palace bears.
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Droplets= aerosol.
I was under the impression that there's an important distinction between droplets, which settle to the ground under gravity, and aerosols, which can hang around in the air indefinitely (though the virus particles themselves may be neutralised after a while by drying out, UV light or whatever). And that it's a bit more complicated than particle size alone.
There was much debate as to whether SARS-Cov-2 could spread via aerosols, but the scientific consensus seems to have come down on "yes, it can", hence the importance of ventilation/filtration and FFP3 masks, which authorities in certain countries seem resistant to acting on for political reasons.
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This from the Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers in their Ventilation resource (I'm rockin' the bedtime reading tonight!)
https://go.cibse.org/l/698403/2021-07-16/58mxjt/698403/1626442809vU1W2onF/COVID_19___Ventilation_v5.pdf
Evidence is mounting that the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19, can be spread by very small particles – called aerosols – which are released by an infected person when they cough, sneeze, talk and breathe, alongside larger droplets that are released simultaneously (Tang, et al., 2020) (Wilson, et al., 2020).
Larger droplets are acted upon by gravity, and fall after a period of time; the two-metre social distancing measure was developed to ensure contact with these larger droplets is reduced.
However, fine aerosols (some of which may contain viral particles) can remain airborne for several hours. Although it is difficult to definitively prove the airborne aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the same mechanism of transmission has been identified in similar viruses (for example, SARS-CoV-1). There is emerging evidence that shows high rates of infection in poorly ventilated rooms, which suggests that this is a potential transmission route. Measures to reduce the risk of inhaling these small particles, which may cause infection, are therefore recommended.
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Droplets= aerosol.
I was under the impression that there's an important distinction between droplets, which settle to the ground under gravity, and aerosols, which can hang around in the air indefinitely (though the virus particles themselves may be neutralised after a while by drying out, UV light or whatever). And that it's a bit more complicated than particle size alone.
There was much debate as to whether SARS-Cov-2 could spread via aerosols, but the scientific consensus seems to have come down on "yes, it can", hence the importance of ventilation/filtration and FFP3 masks, which authorities in certain countries seem resistant to acting on for political reasons.
It is all a question of size but it is unlikely that pure naked virus particles survive for long is my understanding. I am unhappy to be proved wrong
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Virus is always going to be expelled in some kind of aqueous suspension (which will be a mix of droplets and aerosols). Naked virus particles only exist when those dry on a surface (even then, they won't be floating around). My current understanding is that SARS-CoV-2 doesn't survive long in this format – lots of early studies thought this was the case, but I think they were just measuring residual RNA rather than infectious virus particles. Consensus now is that spread depends on inhaling infectious aerosols and droplets. Covid, relatively speaking, isn't that infectious so it still requires sending time in an infectious environment rather than casual exposure as you pass someone in a corridor.
Personally, considering we can't persuade many people to wear a bit of cloth over their nose and mouth, I think there's little point in trying to encourage FFP3 masks outside of clinical or high-risk contexts (where it should be the norm anyway by now).
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Personally, considering we can't persuade many people to wear a bit of cloth over their nose and mouth, I think there's little point in trying to encourage FFP3 masks outside of clinical or high-risk contexts (where it should be the norm anyway by now).
Might work like 20mph speed limits though, with encouraging FFP3 resulting in higher rate of bit-of-cloth wearing overall.
In non-covid clinical contexts the standard is a Mk 1 surgical mask. They'll usually make you remove your FFP3 in order to put one of theirs on.
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I'm less convinced and think should stick to encouraging a bit of cloth, which will be more convenient and comfortable and in most scenarios just as effective. You need exposure to a significant amount of virus to catch covid, so it's mostly an infection from spending prolonged time in the same place as the potentially infectious (such as classrooms, public transport etc.).
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None of it matters; it's a culture war issue now.
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Last year there were reports that the 2m rule working because of droplets falling due to gravity was probably wrong because droplets actually broke up into smaller aerosol particles which didn't fall out. Both carried the virus particles. It was however a matter of numbers of virus particles in that there was likely to be a threshold of particles to get covid. I have no idea how much of the early thinking is still considered to be true.
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My personal view is that mask wearing can have a psychological role in reminding people that Covid roams amongst us, and maybe encourages more generally aware behaviour.
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Agreed, I think the visual reminder is important.
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Last year there were reports that the 2m rule working because of droplets falling due to gravity was probably wrong because droplets actually broke up into smaller aerosol particles which didn't fall out.
Please note - friendly tone here. Not intending to appear a know-it-all (I certainly am not). Links sent for your comment and interest.
The studies run on Fugaku (worlds most powerful supercomputer) might interest you.
https://www.r-ccs.riken.jp/en/fugaku/research/covid-19/msg-en/
Also these videos produced by ANSYS engineers from CFD simulations
https://www.ansys.com/en-gb/covid-19-simulation-insights
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Humidity and proximity more important in infectivity of Covid virions than ventilation or temperature, study suggests. Simulation rather than field study, not yet peer reviewed, other conditions may apply, etc.
Graun (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/11/covid-loses-90-of-ability-to-infect-within-five-minutes-in-air-study)
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Droplets= aerosol. The virus is expelled in a shower of aerosolised droplets which travel in a plume. The virus particles themselves are relatively poor at surviving on their own in a dry atmosphere or on a surface.
Hence why I do not bother with anything more than social hand care anymore.
There was a Wired article last year looking at where the medical teaching on aerosols v droplets and why the author/researchers believed it was wrong.
https://www.wired.com/story/the-teeny-tiny-scientific-screwup-that-helped-covid-kill/
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Humidity and proximity more important in infectivity of Covid virions than ventilation or temperature, study suggests. Simulation rather than field study, not yet peer reviewed, other conditions may apply, etc.
Graun (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/11/covid-loses-90-of-ability-to-infect-within-five-minutes-in-air-study)
When this was lower than 50% – similar to the relatively dry air found in many offices – the virus had lost half of its infectivity within 10 seconds, after which the decline was slower and more steady. At 90% humidity – roughly equivalent to a steam or shower room – the decline in infectivity was more gradual, with 52% of particles remaining infectious after five minutes, dropping to about 10% after 20 minutes.
It's a good thing we aren't currently experiencing BRITISH winter... In the absence of full air conditioning, dehumidification goes pretty much hand in hand with ventilation.
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There was a Wired article last year looking at where the medical teaching on aerosols v droplets and why the author/researchers believed it was wrong.
https://www.wired.com/story/the-teeny-tiny-scientific-screwup-that-helped-covid-kill/
That was an interesting read - thank you for sharing that. It explains A LOT about why the CDC was so reluctant to talk aerosols even when all the case studies of airborne transmission were being published.
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100 microns is 0.1mm, visible to the naked eye. Makes sense when you think that you can see eg a cloud of dust hanging in the air, not settling.
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Personally, with what I know about disease control in animals, I would have had everything closed down as a firebreak weeks ago.
How would that have prevented covid becoming endemic? It's so freaking transmissible a firebreak would have slowed transmission and reduced hospital admissions (by what percentage is unclear, but probably relatively minor according to data from South Africa - data which has been pointing this way for several weeks now). But at what cost to the economy and people's other health (and mental health) problems?
All signs are that Omicron is indeed close to being endemic, but it's also far less dangerous than previous variants. I'm no Johnson supporter but in this case (and probably for the first time since Feb 2020) I'm in agreement with the current English guidelines, whereas I think the Welsh & Scottish have over-reacted - possibly for political reasons (i.e. "we are more responsible than the Tories").
Well, it would appear that the Scottish & Welsh restrictions indeed made no difference to the infection rates in those countries. In fact they are slightly higher over the same period.
https://ourworldindata.org/local-covid-uk (https://ourworldindata.org/local-covid-uk)
But the measures will have had a disastrous effect on many people's lives and businesses.
When I posted this at the start of January I was told I was being "ignorant" and "selfish" (despite my having followed all the laws/guidelines religiously and taken part in the 1-year Novavax trial).
It seems some people are reluctant to accept data which doesn't agree with their entrenched viewpoint.
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Personally, with what I know about disease control in animals, I would have had everything closed down as a firebreak weeks ago.
How would that have prevented covid becoming endemic? It's so freaking transmissible a firebreak would have slowed transmission and reduced hospital admissions (by what percentage is unclear, but probably relatively minor according to data from South Africa - data which has been pointing this way for several weeks now). But at what cost to the economy and people's other health (and mental health) problems?
All signs are that Omicron is indeed close to being endemic, but it's also far less dangerous than previous variants. I'm no Johnson supporter but in this case (and probably for the first time since Feb 2020) I'm in agreement with the current English guidelines, whereas I think the Welsh & Scottish have over-reacted - possibly for political reasons (i.e. "we are more responsible than the Tories").
Well, it would appear that the Scottish & Welsh restrictions indeed made no difference to the infection rates in those countries. In fact they are slightly higher over the same period.
https://ourworldindata.org/local-covid-uk (https://ourworldindata.org/local-covid-uk)
But the measures will have had a disastrous effect on many people's lives and businesses.
When I posted this at the start of January I was told I was being "ignorant" and "selfish" (despite my having followed all the laws/guidelines religiously and taken part in the 1-year Novavax trial).
It seems some people are reluctant to accept data which doesn't agree with their entrenched viewpoint.
Which one of the graphs shows that?
I'm pretty ignorant when it comes to stats, but on all of those graphs, the rise in cases is not as steep as England.
doesn't that indicate a slower increase rate?
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Presumably the second graph, "UK: Daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases per 100,000" which at its peak shows the rate for England below the rate for the UK, with the other nations above? At least, I'd guess so.
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The ones at the bottom of the page, when showing as ‘Log’ seem to show Wales and Scotland in a better light on infections and hospitalisations.
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Presumably the second graph, "UK: Daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases per 100,000" which at its peak shows the rate for England below the rate for the UK, with the other nations above? At least, I'd guess so.
Indeed - thanks Cudz. The headline % infections are from a large cohort and should be pretty accurate. It was the infection rate that the various national measures were brought in to affect, but the Scottish & Welsh have suffered equal or higher % infection rates.
Hospitalisation/ventilation/death stats are fortunately far smaller numbers and open to more statistical anomalies, but even they don't show markedly higher levels in England.
I guess I'm just still smarting from being accused of being ignorant and selfish. We all have different views and tend to interpret data selectively, but personal attacks are not necessary.
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Don't forget PCR tests were largely unobtanium over that period. With testing maxed-out we were flying blind in a lot of ways.
From the top of the second chart:
The number of confirmed cases is lower than the number of actual cases; the main reason for that is limited testing
Wales and Northern Ireland also count reinfections in their cases stats, which is significant where infections are dominated by a virus that is able to evade immunity from prior infection and vaccines (10-15% of cases reinfections at the moment).
Once data becomes more reliable, it's probably area under the line you want to be paying attention to rather than maximum values. Also rate of change, as someone mentioned up-thread: case numbers for Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales are all coming down at a faster rate than for England.
For anyone wanting to check their understanding of 'endemic' the latest Indie SAGE briefing had a segment exploring the definition, the different ways that might manifest and why it's probably not a state to aspire to. Also bonus explainers on apparent/inherent severity and why Omicron isn't Delta evolving to be less severe. Starts here: https://youtu.be/HX5G26t-AVE?t=1014
There's also a nice comparison between case rates in London and other English regions and some discussion about how London's head start with omicron gave time for behaviour modification before Christmas and much lower case numbers than elsewhere where omicron arrived much closer to Christmas: https://youtu.be/HX5G26t-AVE?t=368
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/51829256885_beef5e820b.jpg)
I'm starting to hear people talking about partners dying by suicide after prolonged suffering with long covid, and yesterday I spent time listening to a security guard talking about how his mum died after just giving up because of the isolation she was experiencing. There is so much that's not getting represented in charts of case numbers. So sad.
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Update: England is going to start reporting reinfections (although only if they happen more than 90 days after the previous infection)
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/whats-new/record/af008739-ffa3-47b8-8efc-ef109f2cfbdd
Cases definition to include multiple infection episodes from 31 January 2022
From 31 January 2022, UKHSA will move all COVID-19 case reporting in England to use a new episode-based definition which includes possible reinfections.
This tweet today about the Zoe app data as an indicator of how off the ONS reporting might have been recently:
https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1488242939897733125
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Well it doesn't help that for T&T you have to register afresh each time. A friend couldn't work out how to register her son Covid+ in it and she's a civil service person...
And yes, lots of people won't be logging LFTs with the government websites which UKGov knew when they changed the need for a positive test in (I can't remember) circumstances which means even people who should be getting PCRs aren't...
Hearing of lots of schools struggling with kids/staff getting it.
I'm staying the fuck in my house forever at this rate :(
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I had not left the house between 23 December and 30 January but that wasn't enough…
I will go to the dentist late in February; my teeth aren't happy but will otherwise stay home...
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The infection data isn't consistent with the prevalence amongst people I work with. Given that we are all capable (and generally have been) working from home over the last 2 months - we should be part of a falling trend. However, we've got more people impacted than at any time previously. It is possible that we are skewed - people who've managed to keep themselves so far. And it is always dangerous to rely on anecdotal data
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Uni publishes the number of positive tests reported to them, per day, split into students living on campus, students living off campus and staff.
We're on 142 for the last 7 days, which, IIRC, is about 110 more than we were getting per week in the highs at the beginning of the academic year. [What we thought of then as being highs...]
It's been very noticeable over the last few weeks that many people within my social circles have tested positive, whereas before it was just the occasional person in my twitter stream.
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It feels like half my wife/daughter's school has covid. They have sent the year 8s home yesterday and today, and the year 9s tomorrow and Friday, down to staff absences. My daughter caught it 2 weeks ago, and it seems like lots of her friends have had it since Christmas.
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Discussion today, again on anecdotal evidence, so utterly worthless, was that removing the requirement to perform PCR tests when getting a positive on an LFT means they are reliant on people self-reporting LFTs. So that means they might be missing a lot (or might not) of positive tests.
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I think I've posted elsewhere I see tis as a deliberate ploy to cook the statistical books.
Ostrich-style, head-in-sand approach…
Seems Boris doesn't do adulting.
Who would have known?
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Why the emphasis on testing at this point (particularly PCR), it's expensive and isn't achieving much other than graphs. If you think you have covid, you probably do. If you don't think you have covid, there's still a fair chance you do.
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Seems Boris doesn't do adulting.
Who would have known?
Only adultery.
And probably every other woman he's ever met!
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Chilly kids in Scotland: https://inews.co.uk/news/scotland/covid-scotland-cut-bottoms-off-school-classroom-doors-improve-ventilation-1438216
“Informal local authority feedback indicated that around 2 to 4 per cent of spaces have so far fallen into that problematic category, equalling around 2,000 spaces out of 50,000 learning, teaching and play spaces,” she wrote.
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Cutting the bottom off doors is the sort of stopgap measure that would have made sense two years ago. But I suppose it's an improvement on the usual England approach of not doing anything about COVID because schools are magic.
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Wouldn't cutting the bottom off doos cause issues with Fire and Smoke Protection in schools etc?
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Wouldn't cutting the bottom off doos cause issues with Fire and Smoke Protection in schools etc?
Ceratinly on fire doors. My employer took the step of installing magnetic holders on many of our numerous fire doors, so they are held open and only released in the event of an alarm.
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Discussion today, again on anecdotal evidence, so utterly worthless, was that removing the requirement to perform PCR tests when getting a positive on an LFT means they are reliant on people self-reporting LFTs. So that means they might be missing a lot (or might not) of positive tests.
My positive LFT remains unreported, because
- I hadn’t appreciated I should report it online and besides
- I immediately booked a PCR.
You cannot report a test more than a day old. You can on Zoe though…
Unfortunately my PCR was one of the Wolverhampton 43,000
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Wouldn't cutting the bottom off doos cause issues with Fire and Smoke Protection in schools etc?
Ceratinly on fire doors. My employer took the step of installing magnetic holders on many of our numerous fire doors, so they are held open and only released in the event of an alarm.
I *think* all classroom doors are self-closing fire doors, though I have no expertise in this field.
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I would have thought that it's only with doors that open to the outside where this would be a useful approach - otherwise you're just circulating air and contaminants around rather than extracting them. I somehow doubt you'd get much of a dilution effect by spreading the aerosols around over a greater volume - sounds like covid's everywhere already in schools!
All the Building Regulations and BB101 guidance stuff I've been reading says to put vents high up so that occupants aren't sat in a cold draught. I wonder why they're not trimming the tops of the doors.
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Wouldn't cutting the bottom off doos cause issues with Fire and Smoke Protection in schools etc?
Also likely to make things even more acoustically hostile. But probably less so than holding doors open with magnetic holders.
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All the Building Regulations and BB101 guidance stuff I've been reading says to put vents high up so that occupants aren't sat in a cold draught. I wonder why they're not trimming the tops of the doors.
I thought the same. Perhaps it's something to do with circulation of aerosols versus droplets? Or perhaps it's just easier to cut the bottoms off?
Overall it seems a rather half-hearted measure when other rooms or schools are getting filters. Though seeing as the main source of Covid in a classroom is probably the kids already in there, I'm not sure how good that will be either.
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I would have thought that it's only with doors that open to the outside where this would be a useful approach - otherwise you're just circulating air and contaminants around rather than extracting them. I somehow doubt you'd get much of a dilution effect by spreading the aerosols around over a greater volume - sounds like covid's everywhere already in schools!
Presumably cutting up doors is only being considered where it makes ventilation sense to do so, by encouraging through-flow from open windows/doors in a corridor, or from adjacent classrooms or whatever. An awful lot of rooms only have windows on one wall...
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Cross ventilation makes soooo much difference when I plug the figures into that ventilation spreadsheet I've been working with!
Really though, I think you're going to have to remove a heck of a lot of door to have much impact.
(Maybe they're fitting grille panels or something?)
(Maybe the newspapers are leaving out a few details to stir things up a bit?)
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You can get intumescent ventilation grills that has a material contained in them that in the presence of heat reacts by expanding may times its stable volume thus closing the vents and maintaining the fire resistance of the fire door or wall.
Fire doors have a lot of design elements that cutting it up will 9bviously destroy. From the metal components to hold the door up or shut to the frame containing intumescent material to close any gaps around the door in event of a fire. They cannot easily be modified like non fire doors without affecting fire performance. They're heavily engineered. If your car was too long for your garage would you cut the boot off? You cannot cut a fire door up and meet the requirements that created the need for a fire door. I hope there's a fire inspection carried out in any schools that have done this.
BTW I'm no expert my old employer teamed up with an expert and an engineered fire door manufacturer to develop a product once. We failed to achieve the performance needed in the application. Back then fire testing was very strict. We used Warrington fire research company and BRE for our fire tests and assessments. Highly reputable around the world. It's quite a thing to see a test too. Especially when the component fails! We had to retreat once into a safety room while the guys running the test went out in fire and heat resistant suits! The video camera started to melt, in a room the size of a small warehouse with high ceilings!
There's enough examples of the consequences of bad decisions relating to fire resistance! From the woolworths fire that started the fire resistance sector to a certain tower block that's still got huge epercussions across the country years after!
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While, obviously, buildings out to have decent ventilation for lots of reasons, specific interventions for covid seem a bit of a waste of time and money (other than to spur general improvements) – in schools, the kids are constantly mixing outside of class, in corridors, and in other spaces. If covid (or any other respiratory virus) is around, kids will get it because they're, well, kids doing kid things.
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While, obviously, buildings out to have decent ventilation for lots of reasons, specific interventions for covid seem a bit of a waste of time and money (other than to spur general improvements) – in schools, the kids are constantly mixing outside of class, in corridors, and in other spaces. If covid (or any other respiratory virus) is around, kids will get it because they're, well, kids doing kid things.
Won't somebody think of the teachers?
Seriously though, keeping teachers free of infection is really important. One teacher off impacts many, many families.
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That's the thing though: people get sick, there's an annual tide of respiratory (and other infections). That applies to teachers and the rest of us. Teachers, like the kids, will get covid.
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This particular exercise is targeting 2,000 specific classrooms which have been identified as having excessive CO2 build up. I'm sure we all remember the effect of stuffy classrooms on your attention as a kid. It's no better for the teachers. So improved ventilation is probably good from that respect, regardless of diseases. But not worth burning for.
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Kids these days. Some of our classrooms were those pre-fabricated cabins, the heating supplied by a couple of paraffin heaters. No one remembers those lessons for some reason. I think the only reason we didn't die was that they were as drafty as fuck.
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Bring back putty , single glazing, and rotten wood. Ventilation for free.
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Kids these days. Some of our classrooms were those pre-fabricated cabins, the heating supplied by a couple of paraffin heaters. No one remembers those lessons for some reason. I think the only reason we didn't die was that they were as drafty as fuck.
Or halfway to Carbon Monoxide poisoning
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Paraffin heaters? Luxury! By the time we got there, the prefab classrooms had been plumbed into the school boiler (presumably due to concerns about carbon monoxide), which was almost permanently out of commission due to lack of maintenance.
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It could have been LPG, I suppose, I think it was purposeful, we were always sent to those classrooms when we had a supply teacher. It's was like smoke for angry bees. Really, the only way they'd survive.
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We never had fire doors in my day either. But we did have a fire in school, which showed what a bad idea it was to have the same hand bell used for the end of breaks and fire alarms. (Well, duh!)
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We never had fire doors in my day either. But we did have a fire in school, which showed what a bad idea it was to have the same hand bell used for the end of breaks and fire alarms. (Well, duh!)
When I was at school we had completely separate electric bell[1] systems for both. The bells sounded the same, but the fire alarm would keep going. I never thought that was a particularly good idea, either.
Fast forward to a couple of years ago, when I found myself RTFMing the specifics of programming a modern fire alarm system. One of the examples demonstrated how to use one of the general-purpose inputs to the alarm panel to operate the sounders without putting the system into alarm, so that a timing device (or push-button operated by a year 7 kid with a digital watch) could be connected for class change purposes...
[1] Teenagers, follow the paint-encrusted figure-of-8 cable from the transformer in your grandparents' fuse box, and behold the electro-mechanical marvel at the other end.
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Even in my infant school, the fire bell was different.
There was a HUGE triangle the caretaker would strike...
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We never had fire doors in my day either. But we did have a fire in school, which showed what a bad idea it was to have the same hand bell used for the end of breaks and fire alarms. (Well, duh!)
Oh, that sort of fire. For part of my education the school was overcrowded, so I spent a year having lessons in the local vicarage. Coal fires in every room.
Fire bells were red things on the wall with a handle you had to rotate. And a “temporary” classroom that was there for about 20 years, probably made of sheet asbestos or something healthy.
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Well after posing this question we eventually got it. Son, partner and me in that order. Son had one day and one night feeling ill, the night gaff 39.9C fever, hallucinations and painful tummy. Three days later partner got it. Week after my son got it I got it. My partner felt bad and its still prairie 6 days later. My son got a faint lft positive line over a week after getting it. I'm on my second day. I don't feel ill at all but my test line on the lft is darker than the control line! I have a headache and runny nose. I didn't feel ill other than those symptoms so I did some work in the garden. Ten or fifteen minutes and I was worn out!
I sat down with a drink and food then I fell asleep drifting off and waking then during off again for over an hour. Tired ever since. Been doing short jobs then resting as I have things to do and hate sitting around.
It's a funny thing this covid. Son was scarily ill overnight then bouncing off the walls e energetic! Partner didn't seem ill but she's using two types of asthma inhalers as it's on the chest plus she needs a 20 minute afternoon nap. I'm feeling like a very mild cold until I do some very physical work in the garden then I'm wrecked! I'm only really affected if I really push it.
So what's the rules for going back to work and leaving isolation? I've read conflicting advice on NHS and gov sites. I'm confused! I think you wait 5 days then do an lft test. If clear the the next day you test again and if clear can break isolation. If you get a positive the you wait for the text day to retest, with two negative tests on conse days to break isolation. Is that right?
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Sounds right IF YOU'RE DOUBLE VAXED.
Get well soon!
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$UniArtDepartment tonight had a celebratory showcase of the work of final year Art, Design, Film and Theatre students to "acknowledge a healthy kickstart to their ambitions post-pandemic".
Proud parents gathering from all over; looked pretty rammed from what I could see through the window; sounded pretty loud from what I could hear through the window; lots of drinks; didn't see any masks. ...Held in the studios where they reduced the ventilation by about 75% last summer...
Really hope folks come out healthy. :-S
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Yeech...
Universities are all pretending Covid isn't an issue anymore and 'wot ventilation, we don't need no ventilation, naaah'....
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Now that not fair. They stuck a poster on our door suggesting we open the windows to improve ventilation.
The room with windows that don't open.
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Imagine that, students and their parents having the temerity to gather and celebrate their achievements.
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Appears that one of the weekend's events (https://news.sky.com/story/scores-of-glastonbury-revellers-test-positive-for-covid-as-experts-warn-of-fifth-wave-12642755)has been at the centre of some covid spreading.
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Yeech...
Universities are all pretending Covid isn't an issue anymore and 'wot ventilation, we don't need no ventilation, naaah'....
I love it "We don't need no ventilation - Hey, teacher, leave those kids alone!"
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...We don't need no draught control
No Covid virus in the classroom...
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Opening windows is all very well, until you accidentally break the handle off whilst trying to shut it at the end of the day... :facepalm: