Yet Another Cycling Forum

General Category => Audax => Topic started by: arvid on 20 August, 2013, 07:41:09 pm

Title: [LEL] Your personal LEL stats
Post by: arvid on 20 August, 2013, 07:41:09 pm
Just for the record/knowledge. The magnificent LEL Visualisation by jo reckons an average stopping time of 20 minutes, which I think is a vast underestimation.

Goal: finish the ride (at Market Rasen return I started believing in a sub 100h time though)
Rider nr: M65
Time: 103h (104h20m in 2009)
Moving time: 61h50m
Average moving speed: 23.1km/h
Time spent at controls: 37h (or 38h)
Time slept: 16h (all at controls)
Time spent at shops: 2h

Code: [Select]
Prologue ridden: 6:10 - 7:40
Started 28/07/2013 08:30:00
St Ives 28/07/2013 12:29:33 - 13:15
Kirton 28/07/2013 15:53:12 - 16:30
(25 minutes at Woodhall Spa)
Market Rasen 28/07/2013 19:39:33 - 20:45
Pocklington 29/07/2013 00:30:17 - 5:00 (sleep)
Thirsk 29/07/2013 07:49:38 - 9:15
Barnard Castle 29/07/2013 12:32:13 - 13:30
(45 minutes at Alston 16:10-16:55)
Brampton 29/07/2013 18:11:53 - 19:00
(10 mins petrol station, 15 mins Tesco both in Lockerbie)
Moffat 29/07/2013 22:47:38 - 5:00 (sleep)
Edinburgh 30/07/2013 08:47:53 - 9:50
Traquair 30/07/2013 11:52:54 - 12:30
Eskdalemuir 30/07/2013 14:44:36 - 15:20
Brampton 30/07/2013 17:49:41 - 18:50
Barnard Castle 30/07/2013 23:02:30 - 5:35 (sleep)
Thirsk 31/07/2013 08:38:27 - 9:50
(10km detour + 10 mins consultation)
Pocklington 31/07/2013 12:59:31 - 13:50
Market Rasen 31/07/2013 18:01:32 - 19:20
Kirton 31/07/2013 22:25:11 - 22:55
(10 mins shopping at Spalding)
St Ives 01/08/2013 02:55:04 - 9:05 (sleep)
(15 mins shopping at Saffron Walden)
Great Easton 01/08/2013 12:56:35 - 13:30
London Loughton 01/08/2013 15:31:33
Title: Re: Your personal LEL stats
Post by: red marley on 20 August, 2013, 07:47:42 pm
And to be clear, my assumption of 20 minutes stopping time was not because I thought riders stopped for that length, but because it made that particular visualization easier to interpret. I will shortly be sharing an alternative visualization that uses more realistic modelled stopping times. I would be interested knowing riders' actual stopping times at each of the controls if anyone has these stats, ideally with rider number so I can compare with my modelled values.
Title: Re: Your personal LEL stats
Post by: Wobbly on 20 August, 2013, 09:22:02 pm
I have to say the visualisation even with 20 min breaks pretty darn good. Chappeau.
Title: Re: Your personal LEL stats
Post by: cygnet on 20 August, 2013, 09:57:29 pm
Quote from: jo on 20 August, 2013, 07:47:42 pm
And to be clear, my assumption of 20 minutes stopping time was not because I thought riders stopped for that length, but because it made that particular visualization easier to interpret. I will shortly be sharing an alternative visualization that uses more realistic modelled stopping times. I would be interested knowing riders' actual stopping times at each of the controls if anyone has these stats, ideally with rider number so I can compare with my modelled values.
Hello jo. I like the work you've done already. Co-incidently I just finished downloading my GPS data. (Rider N15) I don't have any auto-pause so times are taken from when my speed dropped below ~5kph 'til when it went back up again around the times recorded on the rider tracking
Code: [Select]
St Ives 0:28
Kirton 0:13
Market Rasen 0:53
Pocklington 1:10
Thirsk 5:03
Barnard Castle 0:44
Brampton 1:01
Moffat 0:52
Edinburgh 6:45
Traquair 0:29
Eskdalemuir 0:43
Brampton 1:03
Barnard Castle 0:53
Thirsk 6:46
Pocklington 0:52
Market Rasen 1:00
Kirton 1:13
St Ives 9:11
Great Easton 0:41
Title: Re: Your personal LEL stats
Post by: frankly frankie on 20 August, 2013, 10:13:28 pm
Quote from: Wobbly on 20 August, 2013, 09:22:02 pm
I have to say the visualisation even with 20 min breaks pretty darn good. Chappeau.

I agee, fantastic stuff. 
I would imagine 50 minutes would be a safe starting point.  On PBP I always assumed an hour minimum but their controls tend to be quite large and labyrinthine.
Title: Re: Your personal LEL stats
Post by: yanto on 20 August, 2013, 10:25:31 pm
Quote from: jo on 20 August, 2013, 07:47:42 pm
I would be interested knowing riders' actual stopping times at each of the controls if anyone has these stats, ideally with rider number so I can compare with my modelled values.

Here are my full times with stop durations on RHS rider D4.

Started                 28/07/2013 06:30:00
St Ives                 28/07/2013 09:37:19 30min
Kirton                 28/07/2013 12:28:18 35min
Market Rasen   28/07/2013 15:12:56 50min
Pocklington   28/07/2013 19:03:20 46min
Thirsk                  28/07/2013 21:32:30 36min
Barnard Castle   29/07/2013 00:38:24 4hrs 23min
Brampton    29/07/2013 08:09:07 50min
Moffat                 29/07/2013 11:39:34 40min
Edinburgh    29/07/2013 15:31:47 36min
Traquair       29/07/2013 18:03:19 24min
Eskdalemuir   29/07/2013 20:32:12 39min
Brampton    29/07/2013 23:10:24 4hrs 56m
Barnard Castle   30/07/2013 08:08:52 42min
Thirsk         30/07/2013 11:46:51 29min
Pocklington   30/07/2013 14:18:41 38min
Market Rasen   30/07/2013 18:11:39 40min
Kirton                  30/07/2013 21:23:36 27min
St Ives                  31/07/2013 01:13:30 3hrs 57min
Great Easton   31/07/2013 08:08:25 26min
London Loughton   31/07/2013 10:20:58
Title: Re: Your personal LEL stats
Post by: Phil W on 20 August, 2013, 11:37:17 pm
You'd need leave data for that , which isn't available unless you get lots of submissions from those riding with GPS to make it statistically significant.  The other challenge you have is whether the arrival and leave data  from 2013 allows you to predict much about 2017 which will have different weather, different riders and a number of other factors.

If you get heavy rain and a northerly head wind in 2017 what will the 2013 data allow you to predict? Better to capture both entry and exit and sleep data during the event and then you can see what's happening in real time, network connectivity not with standing.
Title: Re: Your personal LEL stats
Post by: L CC on 21 August, 2013, 12:35:56 pm
Rider(s) E48 E49 and mostly, G28
Code: [Select]
St Ives 0:33
Kirton 0:37
Market Rasen 0:56
Pocklington 1:01
Thirsk 6:03
Barnard Castle 0:46
Brampton 1:11
Moffat 0:53
Edinburgh 7:53
Traquair 0:28
Eskdalemuir 1:12
Brampton 1:02
Barnard Castle 6:04
Thirsk 0:46
Pocklington         1:03
Market Rasen 1:02
Kirton 7:21
St Ives 1:27
Great Easton 0:46
We also stopped at Alston & Alston & Langdon Beck & Stamford Bridge & Whittlesey & Haslingford & Duxford & Saffron Walden.

Sheesh. 5 Edits with extra places I just remembered. How did we manage to finish?
Title: Re: Your personal LEL stats
Post by: red marley on 21 August, 2013, 06:16:50 pm
Thanks for the samples of control stop times so far. I've modelled these for all riders as follows:

Assume average speed between consecutive controls is the 92% of the average speed of the previous stage. Where actual time taken is more than that implied by the predicted average speed, assume that is extra stop time at the control. Minimum stop time allowed is 30 minutes. That 92% value is just my estimate of the slowdown and seems to produce a good enough prediction (at least for modelling numbers at each control at any point in time):

Cygnet Yanto Fboab, ChrisS
ControlActualModelled ActualModelled ActualModelled
St Ives0:280:30     0:300:30     0:330:30
Kirton0:130:41     0:350:39     0:370:35
Market Rasen0:531:33     0:500:45     0:560:44
Pocklington1:101:50     0:460:30     1:010:30
Thirsk5:035:51     0:360:52     6:035:51
Barnard Castle0:441:50     4:234:32     0:460:59
Brampton1:011:41     0:500:34     1:110:30
Moffat0:521:55     0:400:30     0:530:30
Edinburgh6:458:02     0:360:38     7:538:23
Traquair0:291:01     0:240:30     0:280:30
Eskdalemuir0:431:26     0:390:30     1:120:30
Brampton1:032:09     4:565:37     1:021:35
Barnard Castle0:531:35     0:420:39     6:045:35
Thirsk6:467:28     0:290:30     0:460:30
Pocklington0:521:42     0:380:43     1:031:03
Market Rasen1:001:49     0:400:40     1:020:35
Kirtonn/a0:30     0:270:30     n/a6:33
St Ivesn/a8:22     3:573:39     n/a1:50
Great Eastonn/a0:30     0:260:30     n/a0:30

Of course the model fails to take into account weather, terrain, darkness or ice-cream stops, so models Yanto's ride more closely, who I suspect was more consistent in his riding pace. It would be interesting to know how close it was for the last three controls for Cygnet and Fboab as you did not provide those in your posts above.
Title: Re: Your personal LEL stats
Post by: Chris S on 21 August, 2013, 06:32:38 pm
Quote from: fboab on 21 August, 2013, 12:35:56 pm
Haslingford

You need a 6th edit  :-*

Haslingfield.
Title: Re: Your personal LEL stats
Post by: L CC on 21 August, 2013, 07:53:05 pm
Quote from: Chris S on 21 August, 2013, 06:32:38 pm
Quote from: fboab on 21 August, 2013, 12:35:56 pm
Haslingford

You need a 6th edit  :-*

Haslingfield.
& the shop in Bonnyrigg...
Title: Re: Your personal LEL stats
Post by: Chris S on 21 August, 2013, 07:56:35 pm
Quote from: fboab on 21 August, 2013, 07:53:05 pm
Quote from: Chris S on 21 August, 2013, 06:32:38 pm
Quote from: fboab on 21 August, 2013, 12:35:56 pm
Haslingford

You need a 6th edit  :-*

Haslingfield.
& the shop in Bonnyrigg...

Honestly. Were you even there?  ;D
Title: Re: Your personal LEL stats
Post by: cygnet on 21 August, 2013, 08:45:33 pm
Quote from: jo on 21 August, 2013, 06:16:50 pm
It would be interesting to know how close it was for the last three controls for Cygnet and Fboab as you did not provide those in your posts above.

jo, they are there if you can scroll down the forms in our posts e.g.

Cygnet Yanto Fboab, ChrisS
ControlActualModelled ActualModelled ActualModelled
St Ives0:280:30     0:300:30     0:330:30
Kirton0:130:41     0:350:39     0:370:35
Market Rasen0:531:33     0:500:45     0:560:44
Pocklington1:101:50     0:460:30     1:010:30
Thirsk5:035:51     0:360:52     6:035:51
Barnard Castle0:441:50     4:234:32     0:460:59
Brampton1:011:41     0:500:34     1:110:30
Moffat0:521:55     0:400:30     0:530:30
Edinburgh6:458:02     0:360:38     7:538:23
Traquair0:291:01     0:240:30     0:280:30
Eskdalemuir0:431:26     0:390:30     1:120:30
Brampton1:032:09     4:565:37     1:021:35
Barnard Castle0:531:35     0:420:39     6:045:35
Thirsk6:467:28     0:290:30     0:460:30
Pocklington0:521:42     0:380:43     1:031:03
Market Rasen1:001:49     0:400:40     1:020:35
Kirton1:130:30     0:270:30     7:216:33
St Ives9:118:22     3:573:39     1:271:50
Great Easton0:410:30     0:260:30     0:460:30

That's quite an astonishing correlation with yanto's times - I wonder if your 92% speed degredation is appropriate for uprights?
Title: Re: Your personal LEL stats
Post by: R_nger on 21 August, 2013, 09:21:32 pm
I (C66) abandoned between Barnard Castle and Thirsk southbound, but I have personal stats galore. Time spent at each control is as follows :
Code: [Select]
St Ives 0:43
Kirton 1:09
Market Rasen 1:12
Pocklington     3:21
Thirsk 2:22
Barnard Castle 1:10
Brampton        7:14
Moffat 1:03
Edinburgh 1:21
Traquair 0:55
Eskdalemuir 1:09
Brampton 3:29
Barnard Castle 2:19
Loving the analysis in this thread !
Title: Re: Your personal LEL stats
Post by: red marley on 21 August, 2013, 10:02:12 pm
Quote from: cygnet on 21 August, 2013, 08:45:33 pm
jo, they are there if you can scroll down the forms in our posts e.g.

Ah, thanks. My ever-so-stylish Safari browser on my ever-so-stylish Mac hides scroll bars unless you scroll while the mouse is over the relevant bit. Form-over-function.

Quote from: cygnet on 21 August, 2013, 08:45:33 pm
That's quite an astonishing correlation with yanto's times - I wonder if your 92% speed degredation is appropriate for uprights?

Well, if we get a few more stats in from riders we can find out...
Title: Re: Your personal LEL stats
Post by: red marley on 21 August, 2013, 10:14:51 pm
Here's an updated table with Arvid's and  R_nger's predicted stopping times:

Arvid Cygnet Yanto Fboab, ChrisS R_nger
ControlActualModelled ActualModelled ActualModelled ActualModelled ActualModelled
St Ives0:460:30     0:280:30     0:300:30     0:330:30     0:430:30
Kirton1:021:11     0:130:41     0:350:39     0:370:35     1:091:02
Market Rasen1:061:01     0:531:33     0:500:45     0:560:44     1:121:19
Pocklington4:304:18     1:101:50     0:460:30     1:010:30     3:213:07
Thirsk1:261:20     5:035:51     0:360:52     6:035:51     2:221:42
Barnard Castle1:431:08     0:441:50     4:234:32     0:460:59     1:101:03
Brampton1:140:30     1:011:41     0:500:34     1:110:30     7:146:11
Moffat6:125:07     0:521:55     0:400:30     0:530:30     1:030:30
Edinburgh1:030:30     6:458:02     0:360:38     7:538:23     1:211:22
Traquair0:370:30     0:291:01     0:240:30     0:280:30     0:550:30
Eskdalemuir0:350:30     0:431:26     0:390:30     1:120:30     1:091:01
Brampton1:001:10     1:032:09     4:565:37     1:021:35     3:292:30
Barnard Castle6:336:00     0:531:35     0:420:39     6:045:35     2:19n/a
Thirsk1:120:40     6:467:28     0:290:30     0:460:30     n/an/a
Pocklington0:500:30     0:521:42     0:380:43     1:031:03     n/an/a
Market Rasen1:190:47     1:001:49     0:400:40     1:020:35     n/an/a
Kirton0:400:30     1:130:30     0:270:30     7:216:33     n/an/a
St Ives6:256:05     9:118:22     3:573:39     1:271:50     n/an/a
Great Easton0:330:30     0:410:30     0:260:30     0:460:30     n/an/a
Title: Re: Your personal LEL stats
Post by: red marley on 21 August, 2013, 10:40:25 pm
Mystic Meg says the following for you Phil:

St.  Ives: 30m
Kirton: 56m
Market  Rasen: 5h 7m
Pocklington: 2h 27m
Thirsk: 2h 45m
Barnard  Castle: 3h 12m
Brampton: 3h 14m
Moffat: 30m
Edinburgh: 44m
Traquair: 30m
Eskdalemuir: 30m
Brampton: 3h 44m
Barnard  Castle: 30m
Thirsk: 55m
Pocklington: 45m
Market  Rasen: 3h 17m
Kirton: 30m
St.  Ives: 30m
Great  Easton: 30m
Title: Re: Your personal LEL stats
Post by: Phil W on 21 August, 2013, 10:56:13 pm
Quote from: jo on 21 August, 2013, 10:40:25 pm
Mystic Meg says the following for you Phil:

St.  Ives: 30m
Kirton: 56m
Market  Rasen: 5h 7m
Pocklington: 2h 27m
Thirsk: 2h 45m
Barnard  Castle: 3h 12m
Brampton: 3h 14m
Moffat: 30m
Edinburgh: 44m
Traquair: 30m
Eskdalemuir: 30m
Brampton: 3h 44m
Barnard  Castle: 30m
Thirsk: 55m
Pocklington: 45m
Market  Rasen: 3h 17m
Kirton: 30m
St.  Ives: 30m
Great  Easton: 30m

Well without knowing my figures yet, it's picking out the sleep stops plus my mechanical stop. Its picked out the food queue at Kirton northbound. Now it's a question of how close the figures are. I'll try and load data off GPS tomorrow if I remember, else it'll be the weekend I'll do it  ;D
Title: Re: Your personal LEL stats
Post by: CrinklyUncle on 21 August, 2013, 11:29:37 pm
Here are my stop durations - S47

St Ives        0:36
Kirton         0:39
Market Rasen   0:47
Pocklington    6:49
Thirsk         0:45
Barnard Castle 0:39
Brampton       0:36
Moffat         5:06
Edinburgh      0:47
Traquair       0:39
Eskdalemuir    1:00
Brampton       4:03
Barnard Castle 2:36
Thirsk         0:51
Pocklington    1:06
Market Rasen   2:20
Kirton         0:45
St Ives        1:37
Great Easton   1:04
Title: Re: Your personal LEL stats
Post by: red marley on 21 August, 2013, 11:45:33 pm
Now with added crinkles...

Arvid Cygnet Yanto Fboab, ChrisS R_nger CrinklyUncle
ControlActualModelled ActualModelled ActualModelled ActualModelled ActualModelled ActualModelled
St Ives0:460:30     0:280:30     0:300:30     0:330:30     0:430:30     0:360:30
Kirton1:021:11     0:130:41     0:350:39     0:370:35     1:091:02     0:390:30
Market Rasen1:061:01     0:531:33     0:500:45     0:560:44     1:121:19     0:470:30
Pocklington4:304:18     1:101:50     0:460:30     1:010:30     3:213:07     6:496:19
Thirsk1:261:20     5:035:51     0:360:52     6:035:51     2:221:42     0:450:33
Barnard Castle1:431:08     0:441:50     4:234:32     0:460:59     1:101:03     0:390:30
Brampton1:140:30     1:011:41     0:500:34     1:110:30     7:146:11     0:360:30
Moffat6:125:07     0:521:55     0:400:30     0:530:30     1:030:30     5:064:16
Edinburgh1:030:30     6:458:02     0:360:38     7:538:23     1:211:22     0:470:47
Traquair0:370:30     0:291:01     0:240:30     0:280:30     0:550:30     0:390:30
Eskdalemuir0:350:30     0:431:26     0:390:30     1:120:30     1:091:01     1:000:42
Brampton1:001:10     1:032:09     4:565:37     1:021:35     3:292:30     4:034:07
Barnard Castle6:336:00     0:531:35     0:420:39     6:045:35     2:19n/a     2:361:26
Thirsk1:120:40     6:467:28     0:290:30     0:460:30     n/an/a     0:510:30
Pocklington0:500:30     0:521:42     0:380:43     1:031:03     n/an/a     1:061:22
Market Rasen1:190:47     1:001:49     0:400:40     1:020:35     n/an/a     2:201:46
Kirton0:400:30     1:130:30     0:270:30     7:216:33     n/an/a     0:450:30
St Ives6:256:05     9:118:22     3:573:39     1:271:50     n/an/a     1:371:39
Great Easton0:330:30     0:410:30     0:260:30     0:460:30     n/an/a     1:040:57
Title: Re: Your personal LEL stats
Post by: marcusjb on 22 August, 2013, 08:54:28 am
OK - here are mine I think (S46):

St Ives - 00:13
Kirton - 00:32
Market Rasen - 01:05
Pocklington - 00:38
Thirsk - 02:21
Barnard Castle - 01:06
Brampton - 00:37
Moffat - 00:31
Edinburgh - 06:00
Traquair - 00:37
Eskdalemuir - 00:35
Brampton - 00:44
Barnard Castle - 00:51
Thirsk - 06:47
Pocklington - 00:52
Market Rasen - 01:02
Kirton - 01:24
St Ives - 02:07
Great Easton - 00:33

There were two pub stops - between Brampton and Barnard Castle southbound and between Kirton and St Ives - both around 20 minutes.  I stopped for around 15 minutes between St. Ives and Kirton northbound to have a drink with my parents.  And then 10 minutes between Brampton and Moffat Northbound.

Strava gives me a total moving time of 60:59 and a total of 94:35

For reference, I was riding with Cygnet from somewhere after Brampton until Kirton Southbound - so our control times are pretty much identical.
Title: Re: Your personal LEL stats
Post by: Andydauddwr on 22 August, 2013, 10:09:59 am
One more set of stats for comparison (rider E22):


St Ives               0:21
Kirton                0:38
Market Rasen          0:33
Pocklington           7:45
Thirsk                0:59
Barnard Castle        1:04
Brampton              0:54
Moffat                0:39
Edinburgh             5:29
Traquair              0:27
Eskdalemuir           0:33
Brampton              0:50
Barnard Castle        0:59
Thirsk                6:42
Pocklington           0:41
Market Rasen          2:01
Kirton                0:47
St Ives               6:42
Great Easton          0:16


My Garmin gave 62 hours moving time out of a total 101 hours running, so there may be a few odds and sods of roadside stops which account for the difference between the sum of the above and those totals.

I suspect I stopped a lot longer in Pock northbound than most people, in part due to a missed wake-up call.

I had a serious spurt after Thirsk N, in fact the Garmin claims it's my record for covering 40km at 1:04, but from there it was all quite steady.

It's a very impressive visualisation Jo.  You get a real feel for where the bulges of riders were...

Thanks,

Andy
Title: Re: Your personal LEL stats
Post by: RobW on 22 August, 2013, 10:45:21 am
My stats (C71):

St Ives               00:27     
Kirton                 01:02     
Market Rasen     01:16      * bag drop
Pocklington        05:10      *sleep
Thirsk                 00:19     
Barnard Castle   00:35     
Brampton           00:48      * bag drop
Moffat                 05:41      * sleep
Edinburgh          00:51     
Traquair             00:24      * Rider tracking recorded incorrect arrival time - shows 14:57, should have been 12:57
Eskdalemuir       00:33     
Brampton           04:47      * bag drop, sleep
Barnard Castle  01:49      * cat nap
Thirsk                00:40     
Pocklington       02:28      *sleep
Market Rasen    06:13      * sleep, bag drop
Kirton                00:31     
St Ives              01:28      * cat nap
Gt Easton         00:45      * savouring the moment!

I developed some rather nasty physical discomfort just before Pock south, and after that my pace slowed a lot.

Strava gave riding time as 70:50, and overall 115:30. I think I forgot to turn the Garmin off for about 30 mins or more after the end though.
Title: Re: Your personal LEL stats
Post by: red marley on 23 August, 2013, 05:23:02 pm
Here are the latest actual and modelled stop times for those who have provided them (edited to correct copy/paste errors):

Arvid Cygnet Yanto Fboab, ChrisS R_nger
ControlActualModelled ActualModelled ActualModelled ActualModelled ActualModelled
St Ives0:460:30     0:280:30     0:300:30     0:330:30     0:430:30
Kirton1:021:11     0:130:31     0:350:39     0:370:35     1:091:02
Market Rasen1:061:01     0:531:04     0:500:45     0:560:44     1:121:19
Pocklington4:304:18     1:101:16     0:460:30     1:010:30     3:213:07
Thirsk1:261:20     5:035:02     0:360:52     6:035:51     2:221:42
Barnard Castle1:431:08     0:440:31     4:234:32     0:460:59     1:101:03
Brampton1:140:30     1:010:30     0:500:34     1:110:30     7:146:11
Moffat6:125:07     0:520:30     0:400:30     0:530:30     1:030:30
Edinburgh1:030:30     6:457:07     0:360:38     7:538:23     1:211:22
Traquair0:370:30     0:290:30     0:240:30     0:280:30     0:550:30
Eskdalemuir0:350:30     0:430:36     0:390:30     1:120:30     1:091:01
Brampton1:001:10     1:030:37     4:565:37     1:021:35     3:292:30
Barnard Castle6:336:00     0:530:30     0:420:39     6:045:35     2:19n/a
Thirsk1:120:40     6:466:11     0:290:30     0:460:30     n/an/a
Pocklington0:500:30     0:520:30     0:380:43     1:031:03     n/an/a
Market Rasen1:190:47     1:000:40     0:400:40     1:020:35     n/an/a
Kirton0:400:30     1:130:30     0:270:30     7:216:33     n/an/a
St Ives6:256:05     9:118:22     3:573:39     1:271:50     n/an/a
Great Easton0:330:30     0:410:30     0:260:30     0:460:30     n/an/a

CrinklyUncle MarcusJB Andy Cox RobW
Control ActualModelled ActualModelled ActualModelled ActualModelled
St Ives     0:360:30     0:270:30     0:210:30     0:270:30
Kirton     0:390:30     0:320:34     0:380:53     1:021:18
Market Rasen     0:470:30     1:050:47     0:330:41     1:161:19
Pocklington     6:496:19     0:380:56     7:457:45     5:105:06
Thirsk     0:450:33     2:213:29     0:590:59     0:190:30
Barnard Castle     0:390:30     1:06n/a     1:04n/a     0:35n/a
Brampton     0:360:30     0:470:30     0:540:30     0:480:30
Moffat     5:064:16     0:310:30     0:390:35     5:414:34
Edinburgh     0:470:47     6:007:27     5:295:31     0:510:30
Traquair     0:390:30     0:370:30     0:270:30     0:240:30
Eskdalemuir     1:000:42     0:350:30     0:330:30     0:330:30
Brampton     4:034:07     1:040:48     0:500:35     4:475:06
Barnard Castle     2:361:26     0:510:30     0:590:30     1:491:06
Thirsk     0:510:30     6:476:14     6:425:18     0:400:30
Pocklington     1:061:22     0:520:30     0:410:30     2:281:29
Market Rasen     2:201:46     1:020:47     2:010:48     6:134:36
Kirton     0:450:30     1:441:20     0:470:30     0:310:30
St Ives     1:371:39     2:072:03     6:425:40     1:280:45
Great Easton     1:040:57     0:330:30     0:160:30     0:450:30
Title: Re: Your personal LEL stats
Post by: Phil W on 23 August, 2013, 05:37:11 pm
Rob has inherited Andy's times
Title: Re: Your personal LEL stats
Post by: red marley on 23 August, 2013, 05:52:45 pm
Oops. Copy and paste error now corrected. The modelling is now incorporated into the visualization (https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=74690.msg1548913#msg1548913).
Title: Re: Your personal LEL stats
Post by: cygnet on 23 August, 2013, 09:23:22 pm
Hello jo. I wonder if I've picked up someone elses statistics too from your copy/paste - the stopped times you show for me ^up there show me riding between controls at c.20 mph until Thirsk on the way back which is flattering, but if only I could!
Alternatively I could be an aukward rider who doesn't fit the rules but your new visualisation seems to follow more like I'd calculate based on your outline rule. (Which BTW is excellent, and seems to validate the two decisions I made on the ride (to bounce Kirton, and to keep moving to Thirsk outbound) which effectively leapfrogged me over the bulge)
Title: Re: Your personal LEL stats
Post by: red marley on 23 August, 2013, 09:54:19 pm
Yes, it looks like I put someone else's details in when reporting your (Cygnet) predicted values. I've corrected the table to include the correct values.

Generally I think the 92% drop in speed is tending to under-estimate moving speed and consequently slightly under-estimating the amount of time spent at controls. I'll tweek the min stop time and the drop-off rate to see if I can improve the predictions a little.
Title: Re: Your personal LEL stats
Post by: mattc on 23 August, 2013, 10:03:03 pm
I haven't had time to fully digest all this (and I fear my puny hardware can't run Jo's animations very well anyway!). But looking at the tables, the modelling seems astonishingly succesful.

The '92%' rule looks like a great fit. If I could propose an alternative:
I suspect that I ride quicker on Day3 after a good sleep, than after 300km on Day1. I wonder if it's possible to model this - more as an experiment than with the aim of producing a useful prediction model for future events.