Author Topic: World cup 2018  (Read 24371 times)

World cup 2018
« on: December 01, 2017, 10:56:35 pm »
Now that the groups have been drawn, what do you think?

I stuck a fiver on England. Probably foolish - stranger things probably haven't happened - but you never know......
Those wonderful norks are never far from my thoughts, oh yeah!

Jaded

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Re: World cup 2018
« Reply #1 on: December 01, 2017, 10:59:04 pm »
It’s a fair bet, but I think they might actually get out of the group this time, so I won’t do the same as you.
If you don't like your democracy, vote against it.

Bairn Again

Re: World cup 2018
« Reply #2 on: March 23, 2018, 10:53:12 am »
I had a look at this last night. 

I have England out in the QFs against Germany and the last 4 to be Germany v Argentina and Brazil v. France. 

France and Argentina look to have decent draws that should allow them to progress (as have England until the QFs) but I cant see past Germany to win it. 


Cudzoziemiec

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Re: World cup 2018
« Reply #3 on: March 23, 2018, 11:01:33 am »
All the goals will be Polish. This is a fact.
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LEE

  • "Shut Up Jens" - Legs.
Re: World cup 2018
« Reply #4 on: March 23, 2018, 03:42:11 pm »
England are 16/1 to win the World cup.

If you don't understand betting or odds then that means that, if you place £10 on England to win the World cup, you lose your £10.
Some people say I'm self-obsessed but that's enough about them.

Basil

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Re: World cup 2018
« Reply #5 on: March 23, 2018, 04:13:33 pm »
 ;D
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Graeme

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Re: World cup 2018
« Reply #6 on: April 09, 2018, 12:02:48 pm »
What are the odds of an England football team theme song making it to the top of the pop charts?

Higher?
Lower?
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Re: World cup 2018
« Reply #7 on: April 09, 2018, 12:06:53 pm »
Graeme, you really need to get a job!

Graeme

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Re: World cup 2018
« Reply #8 on: April 09, 2018, 12:09:17 pm »
Peter - could we write one between us - was that a job offer?
   O:-)
37. Because travel is the finest educational system of all; and cycling the cheapest, easiest, and most educational means of travel - Kuklos' 39 Articles

citoyen

  • Cat 6 Racer
Re: World cup 2018
« Reply #9 on: June 11, 2018, 01:58:10 pm »
I doubt that anything you could come up with would be better than this...

https://youtu.be/r7aagmw5qcc

LEE

  • "Shut Up Jens" - Legs.
Re: World cup 2018
« Reply #10 on: June 11, 2018, 02:52:58 pm »
Now that the groups have been drawn, what do you think?

I stuck a fiver on England. Probably foolish - stranger things probably haven't happened - but you never know......

It may not be foolish, it depends entirely on what the bet is.  Beating Tunisia isn't entirely beyond the realms of fantasy.  Winning the competition is.

They actually have a fairly benign group and, assuming they get out of the group, will avoid the big teams in the first knockout game.  After that it's just a couple of games from holding the cup aloft.  Simple as that*.

*Except we looked typically mediocre and uninspiring in our recent friendlies.

Assuming you got 16/1 odds or thereabouts that feels about right.  Not impossible just unlikely (especially when Spain, Brazil and Germany are 4/1 or 5/1.  Think I'd rather have my money there).
Some people say I'm self-obsessed but that's enough about them.

Eccentrica Gallumbits

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Re: World cup 2018
« Reply #11 on: June 12, 2018, 12:52:17 pm »
I got France in the work sweepstakes, so I'm happy enough.
My feminist marxist dialectic brings all the boys to the yard.


citoyen

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Re: World cup 2018
« Reply #12 on: June 12, 2018, 12:56:28 pm »

mattc

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Re: World cup 2018
« Reply #13 on: June 12, 2018, 04:48:15 pm »
Assuming you got 16/1 odds or thereabouts that feels about right.  Not impossible just unlikely (especially when Spain, Brazil and Germany are 4/1 or 5/1.  Think I'd rather have my money there).
16/1 seems a bit stingy, just based on gut feel; consider those 3 are in the small group of favourites - one of about 4-5 teams who are almost certain to win, so sure, 4/1 or 5/1 "feels" about right ...

but England to win as a "1 in 16" chance - well. I know humans are crap at estimating chance, but it seems a helluva lot less likely than that!

Anyway, an irrelevant digression, as I'm sure the bookies know what they're doing.

Come On England!
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citoyen

  • Cat 6 Racer
Re: World cup 2018
« Reply #14 on: June 12, 2018, 04:57:28 pm »
but England to win as a "1 in 16" chance - well. I know humans are crap at estimating chance, but it seems a helluva lot less likely than that!

I think the thing I saw on the internet the other day had it pretty much spot on:

"England are 16/1 to win the World Cup. For those who don't understand betting, that means if you put a bet of £10 on England, you will lose £10."

I suppose the bookies don't give more generous odds because they can't afford to risk the freakishly unlikely occurrence of England actually winning, given the number of blindly optimistic fools who actually bet on them.

LEE

  • "Shut Up Jens" - Legs.
Re: World cup 2018
« Reply #15 on: June 12, 2018, 05:23:12 pm »
but England to win as a "1 in 16" chance - well. I know humans are crap at estimating chance, but it seems a helluva lot less likely than that!

I think the thing I saw on the internet the other day had it pretty much spot on:

"England are 16/1 to win the World Cup. For those who don't understand betting, that means if you put a bet of £10 on England, you will lose £10."

I saw that on the internet as well.
Some people say I'm self-obsessed but that's enough about them.

Re: World cup 2018
« Reply #16 on: June 12, 2018, 06:01:33 pm »
I scrolled up and saw it too.
"Yes please" said Squirrel "biscuits are our favourite things."

Re: World cup 2018
« Reply #17 on: June 12, 2018, 06:05:06 pm »
Assuming you got 16/1 odds or thereabouts that feels about right.  Not impossible just unlikely (especially when Spain, Brazil and Germany are 4/1 or 5/1.  Think I'd rather have my money there).
16/1 seems a bit stingy, just based on gut feel; consider those 3 are in the small group of favourites - one of about 4-5 teams who are almost certain to win, so sure, 4/1 or 5/1 "feels" about right ...

but England to win as a "1 in 16" chance - well. I know humans are crap at estimating chance, but it seems a helluva lot less likely than that!

16/1 is a 1 in 17 chance.

(Rolling a 6 with a fair die has odds of 5/1)
"Yes please" said Squirrel "biscuits are our favourite things."

mattc

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Re: World cup 2018
« Reply #18 on: June 12, 2018, 06:09:21 pm »
Good point. 1 in 17 seems bang-on - 1 in 16 was just absurdly optimistic!
Has never ridden RAAM
---------
No.11  Because of the great host of those who dislike the least appearance of "swank " when they travel the roads and lanes. - From Kuklos' 39 Articles

T42

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Re: World cup 2018
« Reply #19 on: June 13, 2018, 08:06:58 am »
During the last WC someone observed that it was really useful to have little flags on cars to indicate morons.  It's happening this time too; isn't that nice!
I've dusted all those old bottles and set them up straight.

fboab

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Re: World cup 2018
« Reply #20 on: June 13, 2018, 08:57:03 am »
I got Peru in the work sweepstake. That's the shit South American option, isn't it?

250-1.
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Re: World cup 2018
« Reply #21 on: June 13, 2018, 09:08:25 am »
One of the benefits of freelancing is that I'm guaranteed to win the office sweepstake.

(Stolen from Twitter.)
"Yes please" said Squirrel "biscuits are our favourite things."

citoyen

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Re: World cup 2018
« Reply #22 on: June 13, 2018, 09:17:56 am »
During the last WC someone observed that it was really useful to have little flags on cars to indicate morons.  It's happening this time too; isn't that nice!

You get those in France too? I assumed they were a peculiarly English phenomenon (NB yes, I do mean English, not British).

LEE

  • "Shut Up Jens" - Legs.
Re: World cup 2018
« Reply #23 on: June 13, 2018, 12:27:28 pm »
Good point. 1 in 17 seems bang-on - 1 in 16 was just absurdly optimistic!

We've actually won 1 out of 22.

The one we won was when we were a clear top seed and it was a home tournament (and it wasn't a goal).
Despite being a top seed in the years before and for a few afterwards, we haven't come close to winning it twice.

Leicester won the Premiership* at 5000/1 so there's definitely hope (Vardy is in the squad).

* I still think it's the most incredible ever sporting upset.
Some people say I'm self-obsessed but that's enough about them.

T42

  • Tea tank
Re: World cup 2018
« Reply #24 on: June 13, 2018, 01:32:57 pm »
During the last WC someone observed that it was really useful to have little flags on cars to indicate morons.  It's happening this time too; isn't that nice!

You get those in France too? I assumed they were a peculiarly English phenomenon (NB yes, I do mean English, not British).

Yeah. Living near the border we get both French and German morons - and even Franco-German morons with both.
I've dusted all those old bottles and set them up straight.