Author Topic: Fuel duty freeze  (Read 5543 times)

Jaded

  • The Codfather
  • Formerly known as Jaded
Re: Fuel duty freeze
« Reply #75 on: November 03, 2018, 09:44:24 am »
Self driving cars could reduce the number of cars on the road if they were used publically, like taxis, rather than privately, like cars are now.

That could happen with legislation, or fuel price increases, and the latter is the most likely of those!
If you don't like your democracy, vote against it.

Re: Fuel duty freeze
« Reply #76 on: November 03, 2018, 09:53:03 am »
It could. I suspect that they will be as the younger generation come along who are used to Uber, rolling phone contracts and the like.
However, it's a huge step for someone who has owned a car, sat on their drive for 10, 20, 30, even 40 years, to get rid of it and have the driveway sitting empty, relying on technology to deliver a car when you need it.
The bigger the takeup of EVs (and it's tiny right now), the less impact fuel (pump) prices will have. Unfortunately, the idea that government is going to be able to up fuel prices to drive behavioural change is dead (for a couple more political cycles at least), as the title of this thread demonstrates!

Jaded

  • The Codfather
  • Formerly known as Jaded
Re: Fuel duty freeze
« Reply #77 on: November 03, 2018, 09:57:06 am »
Yes, good points.

Out of interest, do you (or anyone!) think EVs will ever be as many in number as Dino fuelled ones?
If you don't like your democracy, vote against it.

Cudzoziemiec

  • Solar powered, tea fuelled cycle-wol
Re: Fuel duty freeze
« Reply #78 on: November 03, 2018, 10:07:26 am »
Once a certain point is reached in the scale of manufacture and the charging infrastructure, they will become the standard quite quickly, I reckon, and outnumber dino cars simply to cheapness. Hard to say when that point will be reached, but as various governments are mandating something around 2035, we can assume it will be up and running before that through momentum of manufacture. But that's in the shiny countries, on a global scale it could be very different. Reliable electricity supplies seem harder to do than tankers full of petrol diesel.
sideways bounding monkey lounging under fruit tree

Kim

  • Timelord
Re: Fuel duty freeze
« Reply #79 on: November 03, 2018, 12:46:07 pm »
Out of interest, do you (or anyone!) think EVs will ever be as many in number as Dino fuelled ones?

Yes, obviously.  They just need to be cheaper and/or better, and people will stop buying new ICE vehicles.  Then it's just a matter of time for the existing ICE vehicles to disappear.

The 50% point will happen faster than we expect.  The last 10% (enthusiasts, and niches where dino fuel really does have an advantage) will take a lot longer.


But that's in the shiny countries, on a global scale it could be very different.

Indeed.  China (who have an incredibly strong incentive to go electric) are way ahead of us.  Meanwhile other countries are going to carry on with the West's unwanted ICEs for a good time yet.


Quote
Reliable electricity supplies seem harder to do than tankers full of petrol diesel.

Yeahbut I'm not sure they're necessarily a barrier to EV adoption.  A lightly-used EV might charge just fine from an intermittently available supply.   And if your electricity supply is unreliable, a vehicle that can power your house becomes that much more attractive.  Perhaps some areas will skip the whole robustly engineered grid stage and will finally achieve reliable supplies due to wide-scale adoption of vehicle-to-grid or Powerwall type batteries.
To ride the Windcheetah, first, you must embrace the cantilever...

Cudzoziemiec

  • Solar powered, tea fuelled cycle-wol
Re: Fuel duty freeze
« Reply #80 on: November 03, 2018, 02:40:33 pm »
If you routinely have no electricity for a week, as is often the case outside big cities even in relatively advanced countries like India, charging anything might be hard. Electricity supplies are going to have to be made routinely reliable (they might not be constantly on, but if you know when they're going off and on, and that they won't be off for more than say 24 hours, that makes a big difference) before people will be able to use them in that way, I reckon.
sideways bounding monkey lounging under fruit tree

Jaded

  • The Codfather
  • Formerly known as Jaded
Re: Fuel duty freeze
« Reply #81 on: November 03, 2018, 03:41:12 pm »
Out of interest, do you (or anyone!) think EVs will ever be as many in number as Dino fuelled ones?

Yes, obviously.  They just need to be cheaper and/or better, and people will stop buying new ICE vehicles.  Then it's just a matter of time for the existing ICE vehicles to disappear.

I’m not so sure. Certainly not in urban areas. Charging a car now is so easy, 10 mins in a purpose built facility and you have a 500 mile range. Of course that might be replicated in  electric cars.
If you don't like your democracy, vote against it.

Kim

  • Timelord
Re: Fuel duty freeze
« Reply #82 on: November 03, 2018, 04:45:40 pm »
Out of interest, do you (or anyone!) think EVs will ever be as many in number as Dino fuelled ones?

Yes, obviously.  They just need to be cheaper and/or better, and people will stop buying new ICE vehicles.  Then it's just a matter of time for the existing ICE vehicles to disappear.

I’m not so sure. Certainly not in urban areas. Charging a car now is so easy, 10 mins in a purpose built facility and you have a 500 mile range. Of course that might be replicated in electric cars.

Perfectly achievable if you relax the 10 minute requirement a bit because you're not actually going to be standing there holding onto the plug[1] while it charges.  Most users who can't plug in to AC supplies at home or at work will be able to combine their weekly trip to the rapid charger with a supermarket trip or similar.  The technology exists, it just needs more cars to be manufactured in order to become mainstream.

This is all a lot more realistic than people using more appropriate modes of transport for their day-to-day journeys.


[1] Admittedly I have sat in the car and waited for it to charge occasionally, usually when I just need a 10 minute top-up to get to my destination (occupational hazard of using outdated EV technology for something it isn't really designed to be any good at).  More usually it's a case of plug in and go to the loo/cafe/shops while it charges.
To ride the Windcheetah, first, you must embrace the cantilever...

Kim

  • Timelord
Re: Fuel duty freeze
« Reply #83 on: November 03, 2018, 04:50:08 pm »
If you routinely have no electricity for a week, as is often the case outside big cities even in relatively advanced countries like India, charging anything might be hard. Electricity supplies are going to have to be made routinely reliable (they might not be constantly on, but if you know when they're going off and on, and that they won't be off for more than say 24 hours, that makes a big difference) before people will be able to use them in that way, I reckon.

I was thinking in terms of daily outages of some number of hours (which is my experience of countries with poor electricity supplies), rather than week-long ones.  That makes things a lot harder, unless you actually want to drive around scavenging electrons with your battery-on-wheels, which is a really inefficient way to distribute power.
To ride the Windcheetah, first, you must embrace the cantilever...

Re: Fuel duty freeze
« Reply #84 on: November 03, 2018, 05:22:29 pm »
Aren't they trying to develop solar powered cars? or at least things that will top up charge while sat around.
Nuns, no sense of humour

Kim

  • Timelord
Re: Fuel duty freeze
« Reply #85 on: November 03, 2018, 05:35:18 pm »
I don't think there's much enthusiasm for that[1], simply because - whatever their efficiency - solar cells perform better when they're out of the shade and pointed directly at the sun, and given the surface area and battery size of a typical car[2], the charge time will be measured in days.

Which isn't to say that there's no future in solar panels on vehicles to run auxiliary loads like refrigeration, or for niche applications where it makes more practical sense.  But in general, if you're going to spend money on solar panels to power a vehicle, it's better to put them on the garage roof than on the car (or the road!).  In countries with abundant sunlight, there's a strong argument for using the panels to shade the parked vehicles...


[1] Early Nissan Leafs had an optional solar panel to keep the auxiliary 12V battery topped up.  As with ICE vehicles, that remains a sensible thing to do if you're in the habit of leaving your car unused for weeks and not plugged into a mains supply.
[2] Move away from the usual definition of 'car' and it may become more practical, but that way lies Sinclair...
To ride the Windcheetah, first, you must embrace the cantilever...

Re: Fuel duty freeze
« Reply #86 on: November 03, 2018, 05:56:36 pm »
  In countries with abundant sunlight, there's a strong argument for using the panels to shade the parked vehicles...




I'm pretty sure that the car parks at the Bentley factory in Crewe* do just that.
The irony isn't lost on me.

*Yes, I know: Crewe, not very sunny.


quixoticgeek

  • Mostly Harmless
Re: Fuel duty freeze
« Reply #87 on: November 04, 2018, 03:44:35 pm »
Addison Lee think they will have a self driving taxi in 2 years. When I asked my brother in law (who works in the field) he laughed and said level 5 autonomy is many years away.
Currently, personal car usership is limited to people who can drive, and who can afford to hire or own/insure/tax a car. As taxi prices come down (and self driving cars are essentially automated taxis), that will open up car usership to many more people, thus increasing the number of cars on the road. I find it hard to believe that current car owners will switch to a self driving taxi. Having your own car means you can fill it with your own junk (useful with kids etc), and many people use them as status symbols. Price doesn't really come into it - just because a self driving tax will be cheaper than owning a Focus doesn't mean that an Audi driver is going to want to give up their 4 ringed badge of honour err...
Electric cars are the near future, if the battery supply problems can be sorted. You can order a Hyundai Kona with a 300 mile summer range for around £30k now (delivery next year sometime). The only parts of the reviews that a 2016 Tesla Model S comes ahead of it is in speed (irrelevant) and charging infrastructure (and with 300 miles, how much do you need?).

I think the technology for fully autonomous vehicles isn't that far off. Unfortunately the level 10 issues of government regulation are decades away. Especially in the UK, which has decided to devote all legal and parliamentary time to a pointless exercise of of self harm... The legal hurdles, the approval, the harmonisation of regulations etc... are going to be crazy. That is what is going to be what holds fully auto autos up.

I was talking about this subject with a friend recently, he commented that one of the things he uses his car for is a bit like a handbag. He has everything in it, using it for storage as much as mobility. This is lost if we have communal hailed auto autos.

One thing that can help in the short term is car share schemes like greenwheels, zip car, etc... For many, who live places where pubic transport works, where they can't easily park, being able to use a car on the few days they need one, can really help. For me I an hire a car for one weekend every month, for less than I could insure a car for, and every car I hire will be pretty new, well maintained, and I don't have to worry about it's upkeep, just return it at the end of the hire.

This doesn't solve the problem that those of us who have good pubic transport and no parking are a very small minority.

Even with auto autos available for cheap, we still need to fix public transport, and we should start by making it so it's purpose is to transport the public, not to make a profit.

J
--
Beer, bikes, and backpacking
http://b.42q.eu/

mattc

  • n.b. have grown beard since photo taken
    • Didcot Audaxes
Re: Fuel duty freeze
« Reply #88 on: November 04, 2018, 04:49:43 pm »
I was talking about this subject with a friend recently, he commented that one of the things he uses his car for is a bit like a handbag. He has everything in it, using it for storage as much as mobility. This is lost if we have communal hailed auto autos.

I think we all know people like that!

But really it's another one of those things that car-owners do, not because they need to, but because they can; their lives wouldn't end without the facility.
Has never ridden RAAM
---------
No.11  Because of the great host of those who dislike the least appearance of "swank " when they travel the roads and lanes. - From Kuklos' 39 Articles

Kim

  • Timelord
Re: Fuel duty freeze
« Reply #89 on: November 04, 2018, 05:10:29 pm »
I was talking about this subject with a friend recently, he commented that one of the things he uses his car for is a bit like a handbag. He has everything in it, using it for storage as much as mobility. This is lost if we have communal hailed auto autos.

I think we all know people like that!

But really it's another one of those things that car-owners do, not because they need to, but because they can; their lives wouldn't end without the facility.

It's fair to say that a car's ability to function as a lockable metal box is incredibly useful, but its absence can generally be worked around with a bit of planning.  (Eg. when cycling, I'll visit the post office to drop off the parcel first, then the shops in order of how heavy/awkward the items I'm intending to buy are, whereas by car I'd plan based on a shorter journey.)

And yes, a minority of people actually need to do that sort of thing.  Tradespeople's vans are the obvious one, but there are edge cases like supply teachers who would simply do the job a bit less well if they couldn't hoick a bootload of random material with them.

It's mostly about habit.  If you don't use one form of transport consistently, you just spend a bit more time thinking about what you need to bring.  Unless you're one of those goes-everywhere-with-an-enormous- rucksack people, I suppose.  But only a car owner would think that having a mobile lockable box was essential.
To ride the Windcheetah, first, you must embrace the cantilever...

Wowbagger

  • Dez's butler
    • Musings of a Gentleman Cyclist
Re: Fuel duty freeze
« Reply #90 on: November 04, 2018, 05:18:54 pm »
Curiously, I bumped into a former colleague-governor from the kids' primary school this afternoon. Her daughter is a teacher travelling between 3 sites daily and doesn't drive. It's simle for her - because she doesn't "belong" on any of the three sites, she is expected to be off site rom 4pm.

Teachers don't need to cart huge piles of crap around with them. Much of is is the pressure of the job to appear to be doing something. Certainly, when my daughter was in her previous school, many of the essays she had to mark were sent by email. In her new school the classes are a lot smaller and she has a smaller teaching commitment si it's easier anyway.
Oh, Bach without any doubt. Bach every time for me.

Re: Fuel duty freeze
« Reply #91 on: November 04, 2018, 06:27:17 pm »
But only a car owner would think that having a mobile lockable box was essential.
For a lot of people it's the convenience of having the car that they're prepared (and can afford) to
pay for. And they're contributing ££££s to the economy.

Cudzoziemiec

  • Solar powered, tea fuelled cycle-wol
Re: Fuel duty freeze
« Reply #92 on: November 04, 2018, 06:46:22 pm »
Some teachers do need to carry stuff with them. Peripatetic music teachers need to carry their instruments, for example. (I don't suppose any are left in these days of product-focussed education and austrian* budgeting, but they might be reintroduced.)

As for electric cars, I discovered today that some friends have plug-in hybrid thing. Mitsubishi, I think. It's range on battery is only 30 miles, after which it fires up a little I.C. engine to function as a generator, but in practice they only ever drive on battery cos almost all of their trips are less than 30 miles (mostly to the supermarket and back). I forgot to ask how long it takes to charge, but they do it overnight from the mains.

*Cos austere is a misnomer.
sideways bounding monkey lounging under fruit tree

Kim

  • Timelord
Re: Fuel duty freeze
« Reply #93 on: November 04, 2018, 07:29:28 pm »
Sounds like the Outlander.  AUIU it achieves 4WD by having an electric motor drive the rear wheels, and a more standard hybrid drivetrain powering the front.  So the ICE can either make electrons to power the motors, or drive the front wheels directly, according to settings and driving conditions.  Shifting of power between the wheels for sensible off-roading can be done in software.  Quite clever really.

It's notable for being the first plug-in hybrid that can use a rapid charger, albeit disappointingly slowly (by pure EV standards) on account of the relatively small battery.  The rise of the Outlander caused Ecotricity to have to re-think their tariffs, as they were suddenly spending a lot of time at the chargers to suck up not a lot of electrons and save a few quid on fuel, to the general disgruntlement of the EV drivers who needed the charge to get home.  AIUI rapid charge times are comparable to a 24kWh Leaf, for half the battery capacity and a fair bit less range.  (AC charging at home will be the usual few hours.)

It's overkill, of course, because it's a wankpanzer designed for tax-dodge reasons.  But when people use a 4x4 for bicycle journeys, it's hard not to like one that can do it without using petrol.
To ride the Windcheetah, first, you must embrace the cantilever...

Cudzoziemiec

  • Solar powered, tea fuelled cycle-wol
Re: Fuel duty freeze
« Reply #94 on: November 04, 2018, 09:28:38 pm »
The irony is that they are cyclists! And not even purely leisure cyclists – Mike used to ride to work every day (he took early retirement last year). But I guess they're in the habit of doing a car-sized stupormarket shop every so often and feel good not spewing out noxious gases while they do it.
sideways bounding monkey lounging under fruit tree

quixoticgeek

  • Mostly Harmless
Re: Fuel duty freeze
« Reply #95 on: November 04, 2018, 09:43:06 pm »
The irony is that they are cyclists! And not even purely leisure cyclists – Mike used to ride to work every day (he took early retirement last year). But I guess they're in the habit of doing a car-sized stupormarket shop every so often and feel good not spewing out noxious gases while they do it.

https://www.bakfiets.com/elektrische-bakfiets/cargotrike-classic-wide-steps

J
--
Beer, bikes, and backpacking
http://b.42q.eu/

Kim

  • Timelord
Re: Fuel duty freeze
« Reply #96 on: November 04, 2018, 10:17:29 pm »
https://www.bakfiets.com/elektrische-bakfiets/cargotrike-classic-wide-steps

Well yes.  My bike trailer has more shopping capacity than the boot of the Fiat Of The Apocalypse did with the emergency tool kit removed.  And more importantly (and the one thing that non-cyclists consistently see as a real advantage), it's door-to-door rather than door-to-first-parking-spot-you-can-find-halfway-down-the-road.

But on the gripping hand, if I find myself with a hire car and a couple of hours before it has to be returned, I'll tend to do a bulk supermarket shop with it.
To ride the Windcheetah, first, you must embrace the cantilever...

quixoticgeek

  • Mostly Harmless
Re: Fuel duty freeze
« Reply #97 on: November 04, 2018, 10:50:15 pm »
Well yes.  My bike trailer has more shopping capacity than the boot of the Fiat Of The Apocalypse did with the emergency tool kit removed.  And more importantly (and the one thing that non-cyclists consistently see as a real advantage), it's door-to-door rather than door-to-first-parking-spot-you-can-find-halfway-down-the-road.

But on the gripping hand, if I find myself with a hire car and a couple of hours before it has to be returned, I'll tend to do a bulk supermarket shop with it.

I have taken to doing supermarket home delivery. It costs €6.95, and has a min spend of €70. I do this once a month, and get about €80 worth of shopping, including all the heavy stuff like coke, and washing liquid, as well as all the bulky stuff like loo roll. Given it's about ~€1.30 return trip to a super market, it doesn't take me long for it to be cheaper than the tram. I could do the same run on the Brompton, but this has the added advantage of delivering to my door 6 floors up, so I don't have to carry things...

J
--
Beer, bikes, and backpacking
http://b.42q.eu/

Cudzoziemiec

  • Solar powered, tea fuelled cycle-wol
Re: Fuel duty freeze
« Reply #98 on: November 05, 2018, 09:16:19 am »
I'm sure they're aware of box bikes and have almost certainly seen the same two I regularly see locally.
sideways bounding monkey lounging under fruit tree

Cudzoziemiec

  • Solar powered, tea fuelled cycle-wol
Re: Fuel duty freeze
« Reply #99 on: November 09, 2018, 02:54:19 pm »
As for electric cars, I discovered today that some friends have plug-in hybrid thing. Mitsubishi, I think. It's range on battery is only 30 miles, after which it fires up a little I.C. engine to function as a generator, but in practice they only ever drive on battery cos almost all of their trips are less than 30 miles (mostly to the supermarket and back). I forgot to ask how long it takes to charge, but they do it overnight from the mains.
It's not a Mitsubishi, it's an Audi. Not sure where I got the Mitsubishi idea from.  ??? And it's not an SUV thing, it looks just like any Audi family saloon with sporting pretensions, except it's red rather than the currently trendy black, silver or battleship grey.
sideways bounding monkey lounging under fruit tree