From what I gathered the exceptionally high DNF rate (43% was it?) was largely down to a naive approach - riders not appreciating that their performance would deteriorate as the ride went on, and so not planning accordingly.
Really ? Can you elaborate, as I would have thought any cyclist would appreciate that their performance would deteriorate the further they went. And how could they plan any differently? I've been advised by a few PBP & LEL finishers not to plan as any plan goes out of the window after the first day.
There are 'planners' and 'plan avoiders' and I guess a spectrum of approaches in between.
On LEL you 'planned it to death', Paul. My plan (start V) survived till I deliberately chose to take an option (which I had recognised during planning) to stop at Alston in the dusk of Day3, as opposed to pushing on to Barnard Castle in the dark over Yad Moss.
I think that it's worth investing an effort into a plan and starting with it but recognising that 'stuff happens'. For example there may be a nice tailwind going north (or indeed a headwind - an aside: I wonder whether a strong headwind to the Humber in 2017 would have had the same effect on DNF rate as the Thursday Fen winds did).
(An aside: weather forecasts posted (and renewed) regularly at each control would be a 'good idea'. Just as they do in YHA youth hostels. But perhaps people are expected to access this on their phones, if they want to.)
A plan needs to build in a safety margin for this 'stuff'. But if you can't ride fast enough, a realistic plan (ie one reflecting the speeds you can achieve, decreasing as the ride progresses, probably) can't include this margin (and from your reports, Paul, this sounds like what happened in summer 2017).
Fwiw my (newbie) PBP plan envisages riding speeds of 26kph (with trains for first 200) dropping to 21kph, allowing 30 minutes at each control and 12 hours sleep. Within our weekly pub group others' plans are: ride hard outbound not stopping (to sleep) till Brest, and tour back. But I ride better with some decent daily sleep.
"Do you still then have to get yourself back to the start?" What options had you in mind? The LEL controls reportedly went 'the extra mile' to help particularly our foreign guests who'd decided to pack, to get back to London (by train).
A bit more of the extra distance will create a new route to our new “Edinburgh” control, which will be in Dunfermline at the brand new, huge, high school. This allows two crossings of the now traffic-free Forth road bridge. You don’t get to ride on the road, but the path is really wide and they’ve upgraded the access onto the bridge. There’s even a pedestrian crossing on it now!
Excellent!