Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?

[LateStarter]

I'm dithering. I cancelled my holiday with work and had pretty much accepted that it wasn't going to happen but I have now got enough bend in my new knee to ride a bike. I managed a whole 8 minutes yesterday.
....
I think it's still unlikely. Unlikely enough to not be worth paying a deposit this Saturday.

You have another week to practise the dithering and test out the knee as the 200km longest BRM pre-reg starts 11/March (noon Paris/1100 UK). Of course pre-reg stays open until 27/May (when registration starts) or places fill up so if 84h is your thing you can sit it out for a while longer, keep a watch on the places counter. Complication might be if ACP close it to non-French when they reach their presumed limit (5500) which has 500 places to go yet. A 200 longest BRM wave will likely fill it if the same number as the 300 wave

[Ajax Bay]

I think it's still unlikely. Unlikely enough to not be worth paying a deposit this Saturday.

Join we 20 June hopefuls. You'll have either completed 200 300 400 or you won't, and know whether both knees can do the business in the timeframe required.
Last year, four months after a THR, I managed an almost 200. You will be rehabbing superbly if you can manage a 400 in that many months, though it will also depend on how excellent your pre-hab was. If I had one piece of advice for riders heading for a THR/TKR it's do do as much pre-hab as your degenerating condition allows, before the op.
I drew on this advice to inform my rehab: https://trainright.com/hip-replacement-training-plan-returning-to-cycling-and-sport-after-total-hip-arthroplasty/

[Tom]

On a tangential note, how does pbp compare to lel in terms of the terrain? I was blithely assuming that 84hr would be quite doable until I remembered that's exactly how long (almost to the minute) it took me to complete lel in 2009, and I was a mess. I should be fitter (if 14 years older) than I was in 2009 and I know pbp is 200km shorter, but that still makes 84hrs look slightly tougher than I'd allowed myself to anticipate.

[Rod Marton]

On a tangential note, how does pbp compare to lel in terms of the terrain? I was blithely assuming that 84hr would be quite doable until I remembered that's exactly how long (almost to the minute) it took me to complete lel in 2009, and I was a mess. I should be fitter (if 14 years older) than I was in 2009 and I know pbp is 200km shorter, but that still makes 84hrs look slightly tougher than I'd allowed myself to anticipate.

Flatter. Actually there is quite a lot of climbing, but it's not the sort of climbing that you notice. The Paris end is mostly flat, but with several short sharp ridges to climb over. The central part contains lots of long gradual ascents and long gradual descents. The western end is more lumpy, but lumpy in a southern England way rather than in a Pennine way.

Probably in terms of hilliness the stretch between Loudeac and Carhaix is most difficult, though personally I have found the sharp climbs coming back into Paris hardest. At that point you have 1150km in your legs.

[LittleWheelsandBig]

The 84hr time limits are asymmetric = quite tight on the way out and more relaxed on the return, particularly the last 300km.

[marcusjb]

So I have this 100% correct (because the AUK website says something different), it is June 20th that is the critical day for those of us who can't pre-register right? Or is it May 27th? Or some other random interpretation?*

84 hour start wouldn't overly worry me; 2 of my 3 PBPs have been under that (the other was a rather relaxed affair with hotels and restaurant meals). The tighter time out to Brest sits well with the whole race out, tour back thing.

But just sanity check me that it is the 20th June and not what it says on the AUK site (2 weeks after the 200km pre-reg).

Can I add a happier one!



20/8/19 - 0643 - Sizun

It's always a party in Sizun! I saw the route only goes there once this time - which is, frankly, a travesty...still, there's always Villaines-la-Juhel for a good party.

*if any capacity left. I'm just going to work on the assumption that anyone who manages the qualification has always been able to get a place in the past.

[grams]

The claim on the AUK website doesn’t appear anywhere on the PBP website, and all of the other dates do.

On May 27th registration opens to everyone but at that point there may be nothing left. Maybe they still won’t have shifted all of those 84 hour places.

On June 20th unconverted preregistrations will be “cancelled”. With luck they’ll be resold to anyone who wants one, but they haven’t explicitly stated this.

It’s also possible to ask for a refund up until June 25th, so perhaps those places will be resold too.

[marcusjb]

Cool - so there's probably a bit of watch carefully around May 27th. And then hope for the best on June 20th.

If it doesn't work out, already forming up a plan for a spot of light touring now the time is booked off work.

[Ajax Bay]

So I have this 100% correct (because the AUK website says something different), it is June 20th that is the critical day for those of us who can't pre-register right? Or is it May 27th? Or some other random interpretation?*

But just sanity check me that it is the 20th June and not what it says on the AUK site (2 weeks after the 200km pre-reg).

I have rehashed the text on the Audax UK webpage [ https://www.audax.uk/about-audax/event-types/paris-brest-paris-pbp/ ]

Entry Process for 2023
The process for entering PBP will begin in January 2023 when 'register your interest' opens. You have to make a partial payment at this stage and choose a start time. 'Registering your interest' aka pre-registration is done in stages thus:
•   Pre-registration (for 7600 start slots) opens earlier for anybody who has ridden a BRM event the previous season (Nov 21 – Oct 22) on the following schedule:
o   14 Jan: 1000km or more (LRM)
o   28 Jan: 600km
o   11 Feb: 400km
o   25 Feb: 300km
o   11 Mar: 200km
o   25 Mar: open to all (NB likely there will be zero pre-registration slots left)
•   ACP PBP pre-registration/registration page https://myaccount.audax-club-parisien.com/?lang=en
•   27 May: Registration proper opens.
To allow actual registration you must qualify by riding 200k, 300k, 400k and 600k BRM events (a longer ride may be substituted for any of these). You will have to enter the homologation number (retrieved from the Audax UK results section https://www.audax.uk/results/) for each qualifier and entry fee payment is made (reduced by any pre-registration fee already paid).
•   27 May: Registration proper opens and can only be achieved with at least 3 ACP BRM homologation numbers, demonstrating completion of at least three of the four qualifying rides.
•   20 Jun: Any pre-registration (ie in Jan-Mar) which has not been converted into a registration is cancelled (in 2019 there were many hundreds) and the pre-registration deposit is lost.
•   2 Jul: Registration must be complete with all four BRM homologation numbers entered (ie if you entered only 3 initially you need to return to the registration site /my account and entering the final one), or registration/entry will be cancelled, with no fee refund.
•   August: Ride
Accurate detail at the official PBP registration webpage: https://www.paris-brest-paris.org/en/how-to-register/

(@2 Mar and NB 2500 places circumscribed for French nationals)
Date    Délai    Places restantes
20/08    80h00    113
20/08    90h00    325
21/08    84h00    824

[LateStarter]

But this is the bit which does not seem to exist on the PBP site?

o   25 Mar: open to all
 
And with regard to “ 2500 places circumscribed for French nationals” , with an overall limit of 8,000, (in the rules but can be changed up to August) this means the non-French limit is 5,500. As at 27/Feb there were 6,558 pre- registrations (approx. hundred since) with 1,560 French therefore 4,998 non-French, another 502 non-French pre-registrations would reach the limit, what happens then is up to ACP.  Of course their legitimate desire is for a large French participation so the quotas may come and go as pre-registration progresses, pre-regs get cancelled and final registration progresses. 2019 had 1573* French of 6,673 full registrations as at the 18/Aug and of those 256 (38 French) DNS. (*Lowest French participation for 44 years, since 1975)

[Wycombewheeler]

I suspect the reservation for French riders will exist for some time after the open to all pre reg date and if it doesn't get filled then they may remove it.

Last year there was a big outcry when French riders who do not do BRM rides at any other time were shocked to find they couldn't enter. ACP have taken steps to prevent that this time.

If riders who have had a month to pre register but didn't complain when places are reallocated to meet obvious demand, I would expect a lot of gallic shrugging from ACP, as they had been given every chance.

In reality I would not count on those places being released, I think there will be enough demand to fill them. So really we are talking about the 502 remaining places for anyone not already pre registered, and then hoping that pre registrations do not get converted to actual entries and become available. Not forgetting earlier statements that pre reg quotas are up this time, but ACP may be overselling the event expecting a certain % of non completions.

[Ivo]

I suspect the reservation for French riders will exist for some time after the open to all pre reg date and if it doesn't get filled then they may remove it.

Last year there was a big outcry when French riders who do not do BRM rides at any other time were shocked to find they couldn't enter. ACP have taken steps to prevent that this time.

If riders who have had a month to pre register but didn't complain when places are reallocated to meet obvious demand, I would expect a lot of gallic shrugging from ACP, as they had been given every chance.

In reality I would not count on those places being released, I think there will be enough demand to fill them. So really we are talking about the 502 remaining places for anyone not already pre registered, and then hoping that pre registrations do not get converted to actual entries and become available. Not forgetting earlier statements that pre reg quotas are up this time, but ACP may be overselling the event expecting a certain % of non completions.

There are about 50 600k BRM's in France this year. So the cap will not so much be the 2500 slots for French riders but the capacity of the 600k BRM's.
I see the reserved place for French riders mainly as a move from ACP to pacify French cycling clubs.

[LateStarter]

74 French 600s between today and end of June so they should be able to fit everyone in

[Ivo]

74 French 600s between today and end of June so they should be able to fit everyone in

The FFCT calender only has about 50

[LateStarter]

74 French 600s between today and end of June so they should be able to fit everyone in

The FFCT calender only has about 50

The one on the ACP site seems to have more although does not show past ones (Nov 2022 - today), the 74 are all crammed into May & June

https://www.audax-club-parisien.com/en/our-organizations/brm-world/#calendar

The pdf calendar there is 2022 so not much use, nor have they updated the results for 2021-2022 year

[Ivo]

So there certainly is a communication/publicity issue with French BRM's.

[mzjo]

74 French 600s between today and end of June so they should be able to fit everyone in

The FFCT calender only has about 50

The one on the ACP site seems to have more although does not show past ones (Nov 2022 - today), the 74 are all crammed into May & June

https://www.audax-club-parisien.com/en/our-organizations/brm-world/#calendar

The pdf calendar there is 2022 so not much use, nor have they updated the results for 2021-2022 year

That the calendars have not been updated is a bit distressing but I would never put too much faith in the FFCT "Où irons-nous?", some clubs don't have their BRM's clearly indicated or under the right heading and some BRM's are organised by clubs that are not in (or not actively in) the FFCT.
On the other hand all or the vast majority organised in may and june is about right, France is on holiday as far as organising is concerned july and august and who wants to ride 600s in the autumn (in central France the season starts february- march with the 200s and finishes in june with the 600s - and that's it.)

[Wycombewheeler]

There are about 50 600k BRM's in France this year. So the cap will not so much be the 2500 slots for French riders but the capacity of the 600k BRM's.
I see the reserved place for French riders mainly as a move from ACP to pacify French cycling clubs.

50 events of 50 riders -> 2500, and there is nothing stopping those French riders travelling to neighbouring countries for the qualifiers either.

[grams]

Can anyone with access report which 90 hours slots are left? I hope they’re not all special.

Thanks!

[CrazyEnglishTriathlete]

Apologies for asking what is definitely a stupid question, but is the only disadvantage of the 84h group the fact that you have less time to complete it? Or are there other, more nuanced downsides?

Some informed & experienced views here https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=110863.0 (from 2019)

So, advantages

Morning (early) start just like most of the brevets you currently do and will do in the qualifiers
Generally 4 days / 3 nights cf 90h with 4 nights / 3+ days
Well behind bulge so less delay for controls, food, beds etc

and disadvantages

6 hours less
No public transport that will get you to the start on time so private transport needed or accommodation within riding distance of start
Control closings tighter especially outbound & tighter than what you are used to on normal brevets, unless you are faster you have no time to waste (or enjoy it?), less rider crowds at controls moderate this somewhat, you might get through controls quicker
Volunteers tired after dealing with 7,000 riders previous day(s), last day especially some controls may run out of food and might seem to be wishing it was over
No cheering crowds at start and cheering public on road side throughout has got bored and gone home
Did I mention 6 hours less?

While Time Limit is self selecting and faster people will tend towards shorter limits the 2019 success rates are interesting (but not really statistically significant), 80h 83%, 84h 70%, 90h 64%

My observation, reinforced from having run catering at controls on LEL in 2013 and 2017 is that the 84 hour group will catch up with the back of the bulge - the ones who have had mechnicals, injuries, or are, anxious, stressed, or serial-faffers.  For these reasons they demand more time and attention of the volunteers, and they aren't much use on the road as they are 6+ hours slower than the riders in the 84-hour group.  If you are a solitary self-sufficient rider, then that may not be so much of a distraction, but if you are (like me) one that benefits mentally and physically from riding in a sensible group then you might find being at the back tougher.

[grecko]

Can anyone with access report which 90 hours slots are left? I hope they’re not all special.

Thanks!

The website reports the U group (21:00) as the only non special available 90h group with 175 slots left (curl --request POST --url https://inscription.paris-brest-paris.org/controleur/pbp/json_pbp.php --data '{"search":"Depart","special":false,"depart":"2"}' for people that are not afraid of the command lines).

Not that the maximum slots of each groups differs for all group and that the PBP board might redistribute unused slots to existing 90h groups (that has happened earlier this year). (365 for G to J, 370 for K, 365 for L, 285 for M to S, 300 for T and 330 for U)

[LateStarter]

Can anyone with access report which 90 hours slots are left? I hope they’re not all special.

Thanks!

In addition to the 175 in Group U reported by grecko above the organisers might release extra places this Saturday at the start of the 200 longest brevet group pre-registration. For the start of the 300 group they added 15 places to each of the 15 90h start waves, they of course did not last long so be there right on time, noon Paris or 1100 UK.

Additional ACP analysis after the first week of the 300 brevet group pre-registration

https://www.paris-brest-paris.org/vague-des-brm-300/

[Lightning Phil]

For the 84 hour departs; it’s only 5am that is full.

[LateStarter]

I have rehashed the text on the Audax UK webpage [ https://www.audax.uk/about-audax/event-types/paris-brest-paris-pbp/ ]

Entry Process for 2023
......
o   25 Mar: open to all (NB likely there will be zero pre-registration slots left)

I could not find the 25 Mar activity on the PBP site BUT Audax UK might be right?

Highlighting the increasing proportion of French vs non-French as the pre-registration progresses in the ACP analysis (above) of the 300 brevet pre-reg wave  Alain Collongues (ACP) says

"It is likely that this trend will continue with the opening of pre-registration to holders of a BRM 200, and then to everyone, even without a BRM in 2022" (my bolding)

Does anyone know if there will be a "anyone pre-reg" from 25 March (notwithstanding there might only be 84h places left and only for French nationals given that the non-French quota could be full)

If pre-reg was open to all and by some miracle there were 90h places I might be tempted to pre-reg even without much confidence of qualifying let alone getting to the start, might consider it a donation to the PBP cause and a forlorn hope motivator.

[Tom]

My observation, reinforced from having run catering at controls on LEL in 2013 and 2017 is that the 84 hour group will catch up with the back of the bulge - the ones who have had mechnicals, injuries, or are, anxious, stressed, or serial-faffers.  For these reasons they demand more time and attention of the volunteers, and they aren't much use on the road as they are 6+ hours slower than the riders in the 84-hour group.  If you are a solitary self-sufficient rider, then that may not be so much of a distraction, but if you are (like me) one that benefits mentally and physically from riding in a sensible group then you might find being at the back tougher.

Thanks CEL. I'm very much in the solitary mould, so the idea of having a few stragglers to slowly catch up with (or not) suits me fine.