UK Outlook for Thursday 22 Jul 2010 to Saturday 31 Jul 2010:
Unsettled at first with showers, some longer spells of rain in the north where it will be cool and windy. Further south, temperatures near normal. Drier conditions will spread across the UK from the west by the weekend with lighter winds in the north, although there could still be some showers in the southeast on Saturday. By Sunday, most areas dry, temperatures recovering to nearer normal in the north while the south becomes a little warmer. Into the following week, in the south, some rain possible but often dry and warm, perhaps very warm at times especially in the southeast. In the north, especially the far north, more changeable and windier at times with some spells of rain or showers and temperatures nearer normal.
Cool and windy during the summer = North Westerlies, that will make the first 200 interesting!
Not to worry - I got lot of practice at riding into a headwind and driving rain over big hills on the Border Raid again this year.
And it's only 165km to the turn, then we get blown all the way to bed - for nearly 200km - (if you're right about the wind direction).
Naismith model says day 1 (25kph on the flat, losing 3min per 100m climb and gaining 1.5min per 100m descent) is about 16h riding time. So if I'm disciplined about controls, then the 18h target looks OK. I then have 9h in hand after 1 day (vs 13.3kph, though the early controls are based on 14.3 to make us hurry up a bit early on). The same model gives the BCM as 28h riding time. I spent 26h on the bike, though clearly on the first stage on that ride you can gain a lot from groups. So the model isn't too far off with the settings I've picked.
