Author Topic: [HAMR] Visualizing the OYTT  (Read 170708 times)

Mr Larrington

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Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #900 on: November 21, 2015, 02:26:50 am »
Miles? Kilometres? What's the difference?

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red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #901 on: November 22, 2015, 09:57:58 am »
Day 324 / 105: Kurt rides 216 miles back to the Green Swamp Wilderness (plus/minus 10 miles or so subject to GPS problems) and in the process passes Bernard Bennett's 1939 record. Only Tommy's distance to beat now. With a forecasted change in wind direction over the weekend, Steve heads north to Goole. He finds the going tough after a difficult week of windy, wet and cold weather, managing 185 miles before bedding down.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #902 on: November 22, 2015, 10:05:14 am »
Day 325 / 106: Kurt rides through the Witlacoochee Forest a couple of times ending the day with 213 miles. Steve makes the journey back from Goole via a detour north to the Humber and a late evening snooze stop, eventually covering 198 miles before getting home to MK.


Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #903 on: November 22, 2015, 04:58:21 pm »
I am a german cyclist following the HAMR with much interest and quite thoroughly. Having read the Tommy-Godwin-Section on YACF for months now, I like to say thank you for lots of informative and helpful input (especially for this thread, Jo!) (Unfortunetaly, there seems to be much less interest in this fascinating competition in Germany.)

Why do I show up here now? I hope that my observations/ calculations on Steve Abraham’s performance on the HAMR as presented below might be of interest here:

According to the data from the UMCA’s “official results”-file (which were last updated at the end of october so that I add Steve’s Strava-entries for november) Steve’s mileage was (the UMCA-data slightly deviates from Jo’s):

1) January 1st – March 28th 2015 (= A1 as figured below).
Steve has ridden an average of 185 miles/ day in January and 191 in February. His mileage from March 1st till 28th, the day before he was hit by a moped-rider, was close to 205 miles/ day (=almost WR-pace, WR-pace = 205,7 miles/ day).
That meant he was about 1.050 miles behind WR-pace on March 28th.

2) August 8th – November 21st 2015 (= A2 as figured below).
During his 2nd attempt, starting on August 8th, Steve did 204 miles/ day till November 21st. That means he lost about 220 miles compared to WR-pace during his 2nd attempt.

3) June 2nd – July 11th 2015 (= Summer as figured below).
Steve’s best time so far ranged from June 2nd till July 11th. His average was 219 miles/ day during this period of 40 days, which translates into gaining about 550 miles on WR-pace.

If I put these numbers together and add the following assumptions:
1) 219 miles/ day is what can be expected under good (=spring/ summer) conditions (= H1 as figured below). He can sustain 219 mile/ day for about 130 days!
2) 191 miles/ day is representative for bad (=December) conditions (= H2 as figured below). 191/ miles day is assumed to be the average from November 22nd till December 31st.

then I get this picture of a year’s mileage (about 130 summer days at 219 and 40 December-days at 191 miles):



This visualization suggests that Steve Abraham might end up very close to Tommy Godwin’s 75.065 miles. Close, but he might stay below.

My conclusions:
1) Steve’s performance has to improve at least slightly in order to avoid falling short of the Godwin-line by just a few miles.
2) There is hardly any buffer for bad weather/ bad health/ bad … A successful attempt is reliant on favorable conditions.
3) I wish him luck and I hope he does not burn out hunting a realistic but very tight goal.

Putting the picture above into another timeline (starting on 8th August) shows that Steve might face a backlog of up to about 1.900 miles (at the end of March) that he has to chase. While the result stays the same (= very close to WR-pace) it shows that he might face a long process of catching up.


Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #904 on: November 22, 2015, 09:40:25 pm »
Thank you swampthing, really interesting to hear how these attempts are viewed in Continental Europe. You beautifully elucidate, in graphics, thoughts that I have had for a little while:

I don't like making comparisons, but it is noticeable that whereas Kurt seems to aim at around 220-230ish mpd, Steve aims at 200-207. Clearly there are good days and bad days from both riders when they exceed or are short on these figures. Add to that seasonality, obviously with Kurt having seemingly more flexibility  with the size of the States, although I can see why Steve might not want to do more miles in Europe.

But it would seem that by having a larger buffer, it allows for flexibility if required.

Now don't get me wrong, both of them are phenomenal athletes and are banging out huge, huge mileages on a daily basis that I could never replicate, (I have knocked out 250 mile days but needed a week to recuperate)  ;) but it does make you think that by strategising a buffer into the equation, makes a lot of sense.

Maybe we will just have to wait for the better weather, so that Steve can build up that buffer, meanwhile I have every confidence that Kurt will not slow down now until he passes his HAMR goal.

Chapeau to you both, Steve and Kurt :thumbsup:

hillbilly

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #905 on: November 23, 2015, 06:56:31 am »
Nice analysis.  Although it is one scenario out of several. 

Steve always said that he would ease into the longer miles when he started on 1 Jan.  So assuming he will follow a similar daily mileage in 2016 is possibly pessimistic.

The limiting factor for Steve is likely to be the weather.  A mild winter and he will probably recover to the Godwin line come Spring. A harsh winter and he may be so far behind that it will be very difficult to recover.  I'm not going to suggest impossible, because whilst riding more than 220miles a day, for extended periods, looks unlikely in truth we've only got two data samples (Kurt, who is older, and Steve, who broke his ankle).

But a nice analysis, that shows that Steve is potentially walking the tightrope as a breeze picks up.

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #906 on: November 23, 2015, 10:53:48 am »
Day 326 / 107: Kurt heads south towards Tampa for a rainy morning then spends the remains of the day doing loops of Flatwood park, all in for a total of 217 miles. This leaves him around 560 miles above the Godwin line. Steve does a 189 mile Cambridgeshire loop via Peterborough and Ely in colder but generally drier and less windy conditions. He finishes a little earlier than of late in order to regain some lost sleep. He is currently around 240 miles below the Godwin line.


TimC

  • Bike pilot
Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #907 on: November 23, 2015, 12:58:07 pm »
Interesting looking at the whole graphic - even with all his problems this year, it looks likely that Steve will beat Bernard Benett's 65,127 miles for the calendar year, which will put him third highest-mileage ever after Tommy and Kurt. That's pretty amazing!

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #908 on: November 23, 2015, 05:51:10 pm »
Interesting looking at the whole graphic - even with all his problems this year, it looks likely that Steve will beat Bernard Benett's 65,127 miles for the calendar year, which will put him third highest-mileage ever after Tommy and Kurt. That's pretty amazing!

+1 :thumbsup:

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #909 on: November 23, 2015, 06:27:19 pm »
It's not a foregone conclusion that Steve will  pass Bennett's record. He'll need to average around 196.2 mpd or more to do this by Dec 31st. His average for the last week has been 182.3, so a fair bit short. Hopefully, Steve will catch up on lost sleep and the weather will be a little more accommodating than of late to allow him to up his mileage again.

zigzag

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Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #910 on: November 23, 2015, 07:01:32 pm »
looking at the visual, if Kurt keeps his current mileages until the end it's possible to reach 76,650 miles which would raise the bar to 210mpd for future attempts (who would dare?!..)

TimC

  • Bike pilot
Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #911 on: November 23, 2015, 08:03:38 pm »
It's not a foregone conclusion that Steve will  pass Bennett's record. He'll need to average around 196.2 mpd or more to do this by Dec 31st. His average for the last week has been 182.3, so a fair bit short. Hopefully, Steve will catch up on lost sleep and the weather will be a little more accommodating than of late to allow him to up his mileage again.

I didn't mean to suggest that it was a foregone conclusion. I did afterwards think that 'likely' was perhaps a little strong - but allow me a little optimism on Steve's behalf!

Wowbagger

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Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #912 on: November 23, 2015, 09:02:49 pm »
I would imagine that Steve is very aware of these landmarks along the way, and I would have thought that they are a means of keeping his motivation going. The whole thing reminds me of the Total Perspective Vortex in THHGTTG. You have to keep the entire year-long target out of your mind and break it down into manageable chunks. At least, that's my way of dealing with a challenging ride. he may have BB's target in his sights as a way of keeping the miles up in the last two months of this year.

Of course, someone like Steve could well be the cycling equivalent of Zaphod Beeblebrox and not be daunted by such ideas!
Oh, Bach without any doubt. Bach every time for me.

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #913 on: November 23, 2015, 09:36:22 pm »
looking at the visual, if Kurt keeps his current mileages until the end it's possible to reach 76,650 miles which would raise the bar to 210mpd for future attempts (who would dare?!..)

go on Rimas go for it, you know you want to!

zigzag

  • unfuckwithable
Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #914 on: November 23, 2015, 09:56:49 pm »
i dream about the exciting challenges, hills, mountains, scenery, speed!.. this one is the complete opposite; good luck to all the challengers.

StevieB

  • I'm an embarrassment to my bicycle!
Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #915 on: November 23, 2015, 11:26:43 pm »
Interesting looking at the whole graphic... 
Kurt is still 600 miles behind Tommy Godwin, so no let-up!

(Got to spare some admiration for the original.)

It may be self-flagellation, but it still hurts

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #916 on: November 24, 2015, 12:00:02 am »
. His average for the last week has been 182.3, so a fair bit short. Hopefully, Steve will catch up on lost sleep and the weather will be a little more accommodating than of late to allow him to up his mileage again.
[/quote]


Let's hope so but winter is coming so mileage is not going to
Increase is it? ??  Wish it would but won't happen

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #917 on: November 24, 2015, 06:30:15 am »
Interesting looking at the whole graphic... 
Kurt is still 600 miles behind Tommy Godwin, so no let-up!

(Got to spare some admiration for the original.)

Actually, because Godwin's early months were so far below his ultimate WR line, a lot of the time spent above the line was compensating for lower than average miles in those early stages. Godwin also tailed off at the end.

Correct me if I am wrong, but I don't think Kurt's year profile is quite so far at variance with the WR average line?

Admittedly still a long way to go, but at least he can hopefully now see light at the end of the tunnel.

CrazyEnglishTriathlete

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Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #918 on: November 24, 2015, 06:50:46 am »
. His average for the last week has been 182.3, so a fair bit short. Hopefully, Steve will catch up on lost sleep and the weather will be a little more accommodating than of late to allow him to up his mileage again.


Let's hope so but winter is coming so mileage is not going to
Increase is it? ??  Wish it would but won't happen
[/quote]

IMHO its much harder to knock out long miles in the cold. Apart from the drag factor of extra clothing on the legs and extra weight, it takes longer to get dressed, you burn more calories just keeping warm which means more food stops, there is simply the fact that muscles don't work so well in the cold.  My 100 mile ride at the weekend was about 1mph below par from my form the previous weekend, simply because I started at -1C rather than +13.  Steve factored this into his original plans to do more miles in the summer than the winter, rather than be consistent throughout the year, as Kurt has done with the advantage of being able to go down to Florida for mild winter weather (and longer days).
Eddington Numbers 125 (imperial), 168 (metric) 518 (furlongs)  111 (nautical miles)

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #919 on: November 24, 2015, 03:19:32 pm »
I too suspect he will struggle through the winter, but being optimistic, hopefully Steve's mileages will go up quite a lot come spring time...

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #920 on: November 24, 2015, 08:55:38 pm »
Day 327 / 108: Kurt does loops of Flatwoods park, 27 of them, in colder and windier conditions than of late. He covers 210 miles for the day taking him up to 565 miles above the Godwin line. Steve has to deal with sub-zero temperatures as he does another Cambridgeshire loop. Following nutritional advice he is changing his feeding regime and so feels weak while his body adapts. A day's total of 157 miles leaves him around 290 below the Godwin line.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #921 on: November 26, 2015, 08:23:42 am »
Day 328 /109: More loops through Flatwoods Park for Kurt as he rides in windy conditions on his recumbent for around 220 miles. Steve continues to adjust to a new diet which, although more sustainable in the long term, means he is struggling to keep up his speed and daily distance while his body adapts. He rides north for an overnight stop in Lincoln with 147 miles on the clock.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #922 on: November 26, 2015, 08:23:58 am »
Day 329 /110: A long day for Kurt as he adds further 251 miles of riding round Flatwoods Park. He is now around 620 miles above Godwin's world record pace and with the possibility of taking the record within 2015. Steve makes the return from Lincoln to MK still adjusting to a new diet. His 159 mile ride leaves him around 400 miles, or two days, behind the Godwin pace.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #923 on: November 27, 2015, 03:27:46 pm »
Day 330 / 111: Kurt rides up and down the Withlacoochee trial for just over one Godwin. Steve does another Cambridgeshire loop in slightly better weather but continuing adaptations to his new diet limits his speed and distance to 151 miles.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #924 on: November 28, 2015, 09:11:40 am »
Day 331 / 112: More Withlacoochee fun for kurt as he adds another 209 miles to his ever nearer WR total. Steve rides another Cambridgeshireshire loop finishing late, but with a slightly faster pace and 178 miles suggesting he might be on the way up after his diet adjustment.