Author Topic: [HAMR] Current thoughts on the record attempt?  (Read 163145 times)

Wowbagger

  • Dez's butler
    • Musings of a Gentleman Cyclist
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1825 on: January 08, 2016, 01:15:48 pm »
I think it was Dez who asked me this question, as a result of watching QI. It was "Which UK Bank Holiday is most likely to have snow?" and it was, of course, Easter Monday.
Oh, Bach without any doubt. Bach every time for me.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1826 on: January 08, 2016, 01:16:45 pm »

There is a new schedule on the website (it has not been posted here yet, has it?):
http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/the-preparation/142-targets-2016

I have added a column with Steve's mileage 2015 for those months, in which he was cycling (almost) unimpaired (value for March 2015 from 1-28). Compared to 2015 he has to increase his monthly distances by 9% to 16% in order to follow the new schedule. That looks really ambitious.

Month Distance Distance/ day   Distance/ day 2015 (%change)
August 2015 4,564.70 190.196
September 2015 6,424.80 214.160
October 2015 6,469.60 208.697
November 2015 5,491.20 183.041
December 2015 4,910.20 158.394
January 2016 6,250.00 201.6   185.3 (+9%)
February 2016 6,425.00 221.6   191.4 (+16%)
March 2016 6,990.00 225.5   204.6 (+10%)
April 2016 7,110.00 237.0
May 2016 7,195.00 232.1
June 2016 7,035.00 234.5   214.9 (+9%)
July 2016 7,024.00 226.6
August 2016 1,260.00 210.0
Total 77,149.50

LittleWheelsandBig

  • Whimsy Rider
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1827 on: January 08, 2016, 01:20:51 pm »
I remember my first meeting with LWAB, on a 300k PBP qualifier out of somewhere near Harwich in April 2003, it was cold enough to freeze our water-bottles, and Dave had to stick to my wheel, as he'd forgotten his leg warmers.

That was a tough one. Finding the pre-dawn control village hall locked with the controller stamping brevet cards outside was particularly unwelcome.

I kept wishing you'd fart, just for the warmth!
Wheel meet again, don't know where, don't know when...

hillbilly

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1828 on: January 08, 2016, 01:48:29 pm »
Looks a bit weird how it is front end loaded.
The February and March schedules will need the weather to play ball. 
In a typical UK year, those are usually the most ice and snow affected months.  It would be easy to lose a half day here or there, which will destroy that schedule, necessitating a subsequent rework.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1829 on: January 08, 2016, 01:49:45 pm »
I remember my first meeting with LWAB, on a 300k PBP qualifier out of somewhere near Harwich in April 2003, it was cold enough to freeze our water-bottles, and Dave had to stick to my wheel, as he'd forgotten his leg warmers.

That was a tough one. Finding the pre-dawn control village hall locked with the controller stamping brevet cards outside was particularly unwelcome.

Your reaction made it onto the 2003 PBP film I made, at 2.30 in part 1.


Steve puts in an appearance in part two at 17 seconds, on the back of the triplet.


I've filmed most of the main actors in this drama at one time or another. The nearest I got to Kurt was filming his RAAM partner Joel Sothern, who rode the Mersey a couple of times.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1830 on: January 08, 2016, 01:55:49 pm »
@Legs: Although April has a reputation for showers, it is often the driest month in southern England.
But IME the weather is at its most changeable in April - probably necessitating more stopping and changing, and carrying more kit.  Less drizzly days, more four-seasons-in-one-day.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1831 on: January 08, 2016, 02:00:13 pm »


@Legs: Although April has a reputation for showers, it is often the driest month in southern England. In 2007, when Mrs. Wow and I did our LEJOG, there were some weather stations operated by Essex and Suffolk Water that didn't record any rain throughout the whole of April. We didn't experience any at all until we were on Arran, and then it was only 20 minutes or so. It rained all day when we went through Fort William and we had another wet afternoon on the East Coast.

I remember my first meeting with LWAB, on a 300k PBP qualifier out of somewhere near Harwich in April 2003, it was cold enough to freeze our water-bottles, and Dave had to stick to my wheel, as he'd forgotten his leg warmers. April tends to be dry with extremes of temperature. Weather rhymes predate the Gregorian calendar, so refer to a period 11 days later.

February and March are generally the driest two months in southern UK. See http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate/gcr2nc3b7 click on Averages graphs, Rainfall for Woburn (nearest station to Milton Keynes). Click on Rainfall >= 1 mm (days) to see what are classified as wet days, these are pretty evenly spread throughout the year. February is on average the coldest, frostiest month of the year.

SoreTween

  • Most of me survived the Pennine Bridleway.
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1832 on: January 08, 2016, 02:02:17 pm »
Lol
Quote
The distance is roughly the equivalent of London to Edinburgh and return with ten times as many potholes on the way
I wonder how that has stood up over time.  My experience of British and French roads in general would suggest it's well on the way to reversed.
2019 targets: TINAT 160 rough
There is only one infinite resource in this universe; human stupidity.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1833 on: January 08, 2016, 02:43:14 pm »
Personally I think that April, May, June, etc - even Feburary - are all rather academic at this stage.
Let's see if he can do 205 a day for the next week.  And if so, the rest of January. 
I think it will be hard given he's not been able hit the 190 per day for the first week - and that target was set retrospectively!

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1834 on: January 08, 2016, 02:51:14 pm »
Personally I think that April, May, June, etc - even Feburary - are all rather academic at this stage.
Let's see if he can do 205 a day for the next week today.  And if so, the rest of January for the next week. 
I think it will be hard given he's not been able hit the 190 per day for the first week - and that target was set retrospectively!
FTFY  ;)
Remember, we all mostly thought he had a plan in January last year (one that had been arrived at through considered calculation and enormous experience &c &c), but that plan looks ridiculously unenactable (is that a word?) with the benefit of hindsight.

red marley

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1835 on: January 08, 2016, 02:55:16 pm »
I think it will be hard given he's not been able hit the 190 per day for the first week - and that target was set retrospectively!

How do you know the plan was set retrospectively? Just because we have seen it today doesn't mean it didn't exist yesterday.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1836 on: January 08, 2016, 02:55:53 pm »
My earliest experiment in digital video sheds some light on Steve and fatigue. In 2001 he rode from London to Edinburgh and return, and a week later rode the Mersey Roads 24. He managed just over 360 miles in the Mersey, which is covered from 7.23 in. At 9.57 there's a shot of him crashed out at the Hodnet control. The quality of the video is terrible, quarter VGA and 15fps, but the incorporated stills are better definition.

 

I think the rider wearing fluorescent pink bootees is probably Hoppo, he wasn't well known at the time. He came to notice through riding with titanium bolts in his knee, or something like that. George Berwick also features, he's supposed to have met Tommy Godwin, and discussed his methods, according to Steve.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1837 on: January 08, 2016, 03:03:33 pm »
Let's see if he can do 205 a day for the next week.  And if so, the rest of January. 
I must admit, I've grown increasingly uncomfortable supporting the whole thing really.
To be honest it scares me what he's looking to do, just from a fatigue and exhaustion perspective - not because of a danger to his health, but from a tiredness point of view being out there in all weathers on busy roads, chasing huge mileage totals. If his sole objective is the record, then he has to push so hard into regions he's never ever been before, and that just has to get so testing it's not true.

And Steve knows all about sleep dep.
I remember reading quite a long article he did for Arrivee some years back all about sleep in relation to endurance riding. He's had plenty of experience of it. Thank goodness.
Garry Broad

mattc

  • n.b. have grown beard since photo taken
    • Didcot Audaxes
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1838 on: January 08, 2016, 03:08:29 pm »
I think it will be hard given he's not been able hit the 190 per day for the first week - and that target was set retrospectively!

How do you know the plan was set retrospectively? Just because we have seen it today doesn't mean it didn't exist yesterday.

If it aint on Strava the internet, it didn't happen.
Has never ridden RAAM
---------
No.11  Because of the great host of those who dislike the least appearance of "swank " when they travel the roads and lanes. - From Kuklos' 39 Articles

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1839 on: January 08, 2016, 03:10:19 pm »
Von Broad I think you have just described the year of almost every mile-eater that has gone before and has yet to come. Records are not easy by their very nature.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1840 on: January 08, 2016, 03:10:50 pm »
I think it will be hard given he's not been able hit the 190 per day for the first week - and that target was set retrospectively!

How do you know the plan was set retrospectively? Just because we have seen it today doesn't mean it didn't exist yesterday.

True.  But I can't see why it would ramp up by 15 miles per day today unless there was a hint of fitting it to reality involved. So it's possible that it was not retrospective but it seems unlikely.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1841 on: January 08, 2016, 03:25:12 pm »
I think it will be hard given he's not been able hit the 190 per day for the first week - and that target was set retrospectively!

How do you know the plan was set retrospectively? Just because we have seen it today doesn't mean it didn't exist yesterday.

True.  But I can't see why it would ramp up by 15 miles per day today unless there was a hint of fitting it to reality involved. So it's possible that it was not retrospective but it seems unlikely.

I must admit I had assumed it had come about due to mumblings on here and elsewhere that there wasn't a coherent plan. It's clear from messages on here that the AUK board were pressing for clarification from Steve's team. And therefore it's retrospective IMO.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1842 on: January 08, 2016, 03:26:56 pm »
True.  But I can't see why it would ramp up by 15 miles per day today unless there was a hint of fitting it to reality involved. So it's possible that it was not retrospective but it seems unlikely.
+1

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1843 on: January 08, 2016, 03:36:33 pm »
Retrospective or not it's a plan, it confirms he's still going for the record and it looks feasible if things go well for him.

Of course he may have bad days but hopefully these will be balanced out by good days, so I'm not going to look at the result of today and make snap judgments.

Hopefully jo can put the new schedule up (sorry, even more work) and then the armchair directeur sportif-ing can begin (I'll pass on that though).
"Yes please" said Squirrel "biscuits are our favourite things."

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1844 on: January 08, 2016, 03:52:00 pm »
Personally I think that April, May, June, etc - even Feburary - are all rather academic at this stage.
Let's see if he can do 205 a day for the next week today.  And if so, the rest of January for the next week. 
I think it will be hard given he's not been able hit the 190 per day for the first week - and that target was set retrospectively!
FTFY  ;)
Remember, we all mostly thought he had a plan in January last year (one that had been arrived at through considered calculation and enormous experience &c &c), but that plan looks ridiculously unenactable (is that a word?) with the benefit of hindsight.

Wonder how Steve plans his routes for the day on a given morning/night before, so that he makes sure he's slightly over target, rather than several miles under?  I guess he may do more of the short rides from home to make up any of the day's shortfall if necessary to make sure he's on track for req'd mpd.
Destroying rainforest for economic gain is like burning a Renaissance painting to cook a meal.  EOW.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1845 on: January 08, 2016, 04:00:50 pm »
Personally I think that April, May, June, etc - even Feburary - are all rather academic at this stage.
Let's see if he can do 205 a day for the next week today.  And if so, the rest of January for the next week. 
I think it will be hard given he's not been able hit the 190 per day for the first week - and that target was set retrospectively!
FTFY  ;)
Remember, we all mostly thought he had a plan in January last year (one that had been arrived at through considered calculation and enormous experience &c &c), but that plan looks ridiculously unenactable (is that a word?) with the benefit of hindsight.

Wonder how Steve plans his routes for the day on a given morning/night before, so that he makes sure he's slightly over target, rather than several miles under?  I guess he may do more of the short rides from home to make up any of the day's shortfall if necessary to make sure he's on track for req'd mpd.

His test day doing the bowl must have been in anticipation of doing some days like this, perhaps when the weather is bad.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1846 on: January 08, 2016, 04:06:30 pm »
His test day doing the bowl must have been in anticipation of doing some days like this, perhaps when the weather is bad.

The Bowl for top-ups...  though I guess he can't gain access later at night...
Destroying rainforest for economic gain is like burning a Renaissance painting to cook a meal.  EOW.

clarion

  • Tyke
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1847 on: January 08, 2016, 04:30:47 pm »
Personally I think that April, May, June, etc - even Feburary - are all rather academic at this stage.
Let's see if he can do 205 a day for the next week today.  And if so, the rest of January for the next week. 
I think it will be hard given he's not been able hit the 190 per day for the first week - and that target was set retrospectively!
FTFY  ;)
Remember, we all mostly thought he had a plan in January last year (one that had been arrived at through considered calculation and enormous experience &c &c), but that plan looks ridiculously unenactable (is that a word?) with the benefit of hindsight.

Wonder how Steve plans his routes for the day on a given morning/night before, so that he makes sure he's slightly over target, rather than several miles under?  I guess he may do more of the short rides from home to make up any of the day's shortfall if necessary to make sure he's on track for req'd mpd.

I suppose Steve knows the distances of various roads and loops around the area, and just tots it up in his head.  There's no real way of knowing how far in advance he plans, or whether he just mounts up and plays it by ear.
Getting there...

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1848 on: January 08, 2016, 05:52:11 pm »
Rename the sub-forum.

"2016 Kurt Searvogel Record Attempt".

I wish I'd said that.

Oh, wait...

Imitation is the most sincere form of flattery.
Repeating a good idea.

Apologies.

Jack_P

  • It's just dicking about on bikes
    • Cycling hobo
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1849 on: January 08, 2016, 07:39:58 pm »
I was out for 100 miles in that sw wind yesterday. The fact he never cracked over 200 with that assistance dosent fill me with any hope.

Right now Steve is the official HAMR record holder having completed his first full attempt, OK he's going to be overhauled by Kurt, but he is still the age group record holder whatever. So where are the HAMR website headlines and plaudits, nothing I can remember on their Facebook page, or website. For $300 entry fee is expect at least that.