Author Topic: [HAMR] When will Kurt take Godwin's record?  (Read 6485 times)

[HAMR] When will Kurt take Godwin's record?
« on: December 18, 2015, 06:31:05 pm »
It looks all but certain Kurt will break Godwin's record, but I wonder when and by how much?

At current rate of progress he looks like breaking it around Jan 4 or 5, leaving him four or five days to add perhaps a thousand miles.

He could clearly afford a day or two off over Christmas and/or afford to stop a few days early.

My guess - no more than that - is he will do neither and probably hammer out some 250mile+ days to finish on a high

What do you think?

Wowbagger

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Re: When will Kurt take Godwin's record?
« Reply #1 on: December 18, 2015, 07:27:41 pm »
This whole year has been rather like the second innings of an extended 1-day cricket match, the first innings having been played out by Tommy Godwin in 1939. I think it could be argued that bad light had some effect on play at the end.

I remember a match, the Benson & Hedges Final of 1983. I was there, and, as an Essex supporter, it really hurt.

http://www.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/current/match/481970.html refers.

Whilst Gooch was at the wicket, the already modest run rate fell to something like 1.7 runs per over. Essex didn't make it. Failing light, nerves, brilliant application of psychological pressure by Phil Edmonds, Middlesex's slow left arm bowler, all took their toll and Essex fell 4 runs short.

Although I would expect that Kurt would get over the line with plenty to spare, there are no guarantees. There is still a lot that could go wrong and hold Kurt up. I sincerely hope it doesn't, and if all goes as well as it has been doing over the past 5 weeks, then he has a great chance. If all goes well, I would say some time on 5th January. I think we could see some very big days in the next 3 weeks.
Oh, Bach without any doubt. Bach every time for me.

Re: When will Kurt take Godwin's record?
« Reply #2 on: December 18, 2015, 07:46:57 pm »
Alicia has said that Kurt is wearing down - although you wouldn't guess it from recent miles. He's a racer and nearing the bell lap.
I don't think he'll let up at all until he has passed Tommy; then he may ease up a little.
<i>Marmite slave</i>

Re: When will Kurt take Godwin's record?
« Reply #3 on: December 18, 2015, 08:24:57 pm »
Anyone doing this challenge is going to be utterly ruined by this stage, and only denial and PR will try to convince everyone otherwise.

CrazyEnglishTriathlete

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Re: When will Kurt take Godwin's record?
« Reply #4 on: December 19, 2015, 12:26:59 pm »
January 6th, 2016, 13:33 Florida time
Eddington Numbers 125 (imperial), 168 (metric) 518 (furlongs)  111 (nautical miles)

Re: When will Kurt take Godwin's record?
« Reply #5 on: December 19, 2015, 12:49:46 pm »
January 6th, 2016, 13:33 Florida time

Like it CET, colours nailed firmly to the mast.

There's a spread betting opportunity there, but I'm not the man to take it on.

mattc

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Re: When will Kurt take Godwin's record?
« Reply #6 on: December 19, 2015, 01:18:09 pm »
It looks all but certain Kurt will break Godwin's record, but I wonder when and by how much?

At current rate of progress he looks like breaking it around Jan 4 or 5, leaving him four or five days to add perhaps a thousand miles.

He could clearly afford a day or two off over Christmas and/or afford to stop a few days early.
If it was me - haha! - I'd give myself Christmas afternoon/evening off. Then f*cking nail it after that until my legs/head fell off.

But then I do like a proper Chrimbo blow-out :)
Has never ridden RAAM
---------
No.11  Because of the great host of those who dislike the least appearance of "swank " when they travel the roads and lanes. - From Kuklos' 39 Articles

Re: When will Kurt take Godwin's record?
« Reply #7 on: December 20, 2015, 01:36:58 pm »
Why not do a massive blinder (like 24hours) with all the mates out to pace him 30-31 december just to get over the line or really close to it then take the 1st off with 9 days left to put it out of reach

Re: When will Kurt take Godwin's record?
« Reply #8 on: December 20, 2015, 02:43:24 pm »

Although I would expect that Kurt would get over the line with plenty to spare, there are no guarantees. There is still a lot that could go wrong and hold Kurt up. I sincerely hope it doesn't, and if all goes as well as it has been doing over the past 5 weeks, then he has a great chance. If all goes well, I would say some time on 5th January. I think we could see some very big days in the next 3 weeks.

Time to break out the tenterhooks.

Re: When will Kurt take Godwin's record?
« Reply #9 on: December 20, 2015, 02:46:11 pm »
you'd have to be insane to take a day off between now and the goal, it simply won't happen, life is odd, anything could happen, likewise to take a day off afterwards with only 5 days to go, got to give Steve/Bruce the biggest target possible,


Karla

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Re: When will Kurt take Godwin's record?
« Reply #10 on: December 20, 2015, 03:00:06 pm »
What's all this talk of taking days off, or of easing up once he has the record?  He's going to smash it all the way to the line. If he didn't have that sort of mentality, he wouldn't be doing this in the first place.

Re: When will Kurt take Godwin's record?
« Reply #11 on: December 20, 2015, 05:16:34 pm »
Godwin has three records.

The classic calendar year record, the "year" record and the 100K record. I suspect Kurt will only take one of these .

Re: When will Kurt take Godwin's record?
« Reply #12 on: December 20, 2015, 08:36:45 pm »
I can't work out whether beating TG's record by a couple of per cent is impressive (given modern USian traffic, surviving 75,000 miles without serious injury is good) or whether it's surprisingly low given modern equipment and sports science; look at how athletics records* or TdF average speeds** from the 1930s have been smashed, for comparison.

*2:25 to 2:02, fpr the marathon, 19% faster

** 40 km/h vs 28km/h (cripes! that's about four times the rider power) although the stages are shorter nowadays.

I reckon the annual record could be increased to 100,000 miles by a professional, given the appropriate training and a bit of luck with illness and injury.  It was hard breaking Moser's forgotten/ignored hour record at first but, once it became popular and everyone started having a go at it, it increased by 10% fairly quickly.  Standing on the shoulders of giants and all that.

The room for improvement is in the average speed, not in the daily riding time, which I don't think it's really practical to extend.
Never tell me the odds.

Re: When will Kurt take Godwin's record?
« Reply #13 on: December 20, 2015, 08:49:31 pm »
A pro attempting it would need very good remuneration, and/or be at the end of his/her career.  You will recall that Paris-Brest-Paris died as a race because of the damage done to a rider's prospects for the rest of the season, and that was only a few days.

hillbilly

Re: When will Kurt take Godwin's record?
« Reply #14 on: December 21, 2015, 10:08:06 am »
Tommy's record was exceptional, being so far ahead of other riders.  Given the sports science limitations of Tommy's attempt, I'd suggest that Tommy was the stronger athlete*  and that the "science" has helped Kurt make up the difference in speed-endurance ability.  Albeit, being self funded, Kurt only appears to have dabbled in sports science such as aerodynamics and nutrition (energy drinks).

It would certainly be interesting to see a pro level athlete, supported by the resources that deliver the best of "sport science" and technology to the cause, take on the challenge.  Simply to see what really is possible.  I suspect we will never find out, as the level of commitment it needs is too great.  Possibly the closest we would get is if someone links up with a sports science research team at a university like Loughborough, plus a small team of paid helpers.  Then again, it would take some of the romantic rough edges out of the challenge.

Anyway - 4 January.

*(although I am still confused by the large miles Tommy racked up in the summer, which Tommy aficionados claim wasn't him being motor paced, but those miles seem anomalous if he wasn't)

LittleWheelsandBig

  • Whimsy Rider
Re: When will Kurt take Godwin's record?
« Reply #15 on: December 21, 2015, 10:26:37 am »
Given that it was common practice for cyclists to draft lorries into the '50s and lorries in the '30s were limited to a perfect pace for a cyclist covering miles, it is absurd to think that Tommy didn't sit behind motor vehicles.

By the way, Steve has recorded better 24hr TT distances than Tommy. I wasn't convinced that Steve should attempt Tommy's record until I knew that.
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clarion

  • Tyke
Re: When will Kurt take Godwin's record?
« Reply #16 on: December 21, 2015, 10:40:58 am »
A pro attempting it would need very good remuneration, and/or be at the end of his/her career.  You will recall that Paris-Brest-Paris died as a race because of the damage done to a rider's prospects for the rest of the season, and that was only a few days.

A very good point.  But it should be noted that veteran athletes tend to do well at endurance events.  I'd be curious to see what a hard man like Malcolm Elliott could manage.
Getting there...

When will Kurt take Godwin's record?
« Reply #17 on: December 21, 2015, 10:49:27 am »
Take a look at the tandem trike records of Arnold and Crimes set in 1954. They are still unbeatable as they were such a fine pair of athletes. Same goes for the End to End on an ordinary and the current men's tandem 100 mile TT record ridden at an average of 30mph.

Every so often a bike rider comes along who does something that so good its can either not be beaten or only by a small amount.

Re: When will Kurt take Godwin's record?
« Reply #18 on: December 21, 2015, 11:11:41 am »
"*(although I am still confused by the large miles Tommy racked up in the summer, which Tommy aficionados claim wasn't him being motor paced, but those miles seem anomalous if he wasn't)"

Everyone forgets that Tommy was engaged in a race within a race to take the Nicholson record first. He had two major impetuses (sic), firstly Bernard Bennett was catching him and possibly on target to overtake his mileage and get to the new record before him. Secondly, Raleigh and his coach Charley Davey were on his case as well making sure he was constantly pushing the envelope and hence demonstrating the superiority of their gear vs that of New Hudson. Many of Tommy's big days were witnessed by HH England of Cycling magazine and not once did he ever comment upon any drafting/motor pacing Godwin was doing. His 348 mile day  case in point, it was documented in detail and Godwin's splits clearly show a series of 20+mph sprint hours followed by recovery. That is how he rode, hard then soft, then hard then soft, driven on by his coach. He was time triallist before and this would have been natural to him. Both Kurt and Steve have ridden differently, both of them ride at a more constant rate, Kurt somewhat faster. We find it hard to understand Godwin's year because we put everything within our frame of experience. We do not understand the concept of giving up EVERYTHING to take on this record. Steve and Kurt have not given up everything, a lot but not everything. Godwin was driven by greater forces and as a result suffered more to achieve his goal.  This allowed him to somewhat coast to the 100k miles at a mere 200 per day average ;-), he also had a financial incentive to do it in 500 days exactly as I outline in my book.

Karla

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Re: When will Kurt take Godwin's record?
« Reply #19 on: December 21, 2015, 11:12:51 am »
Take a look at the tandem trike records of Arnold and Grimes set in 1954. They are still unbeatable as they were such a fine pair of athletes. Same goes for the End to End on an ordinary and the current men's tandem 100 mile TT record ridden at an average of 30mph.

Every so often a bike rider comes along who does something that so good its can either not be beaten or only by a small amount.

Wilko & Lynne Taylor's mixed LEJOG record is doing pretty well too.

CrazyEnglishTriathlete

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Re: When will Kurt take Godwin's record?
« Reply #20 on: December 21, 2015, 12:05:58 pm »
Given that it was common practice for cyclists to draft lorries into the '50s and lorries in the '30s were limited to a perfect pace for a cyclist covering miles, it is absurd to think that Tommy didn't sit behind motor vehicles.


That's a very astute observation.  Riding back and forth to Selsey, there are flat roads and lots of tractors limited to 26mph.  They have been a blessing many times when I've headed back to my caravan with weary legs.  If I can hear them coming, then I can sprint to get on the back and I am then able to keep up with minimum of effort in the big air pocket they create.  A perfect example is when I went to watch the Olympic road race, with a 50 mile ride starting at 2.30am to get to my perfect spot a 6am - all the excitement of watching the race and then 60 miles into the wind back to the caravan.  I stopped to raid my bonk rations, as I was struggling to keep going with 12 miles left, when I heard the tractor noise.  I was able to keep up at 25- 26 mph for 8 miles without much effort (despite having pretty much 'hollow' legs at the time.  So that would have been one advantage that Tommy would have had that modern riders don't.
Eddington Numbers 125 (imperial), 168 (metric) 518 (furlongs)  111 (nautical miles)

mattc

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Re: When will Kurt take Godwin's record?
« Reply #21 on: December 21, 2015, 12:17:36 pm »
Given that it was common practice for cyclists to draft lorries into the '50s and lorries in the '30s were limited to a perfect pace for a cyclist covering miles, it is absurd to think that Tommy didn't sit behind motor vehicles.


That's a very astute observation. 
Yup.

( I doubt I was the only one who assumed the alleged "motor pacing"  was by drivers who were part of the Godwin team. I hadnt even considered the difference in traffic rules/conditions! )
Has never ridden RAAM
---------
No.11  Because of the great host of those who dislike the least appearance of "swank " when they travel the roads and lanes. - From Kuklos' 39 Articles

Re: When will Kurt take Godwin's record?
« Reply #22 on: December 21, 2015, 02:12:13 pm »
I think Citizenfishy has highlighted  / confirmed that having a coach or crew chief, in particular with excellent working knowledge of how to ride plus close enough to the rider to know them very well, you will get a better performance. Without Alicia Kurt wouldn't be about to match Godwin.  I think that Steve having no hands on mentor with the appropriate cycling knowledge and knowing him well enough is a major problem.

Also, using super long intervals sounds a very smart move. Not only would it give a good days mileage ensuring the miles are achieved as physically economically as possible, but would also constantly maintain the ability to go fast which is so very important in this ride.

hillbilly

Re: When will Kurt take Godwin's record?
« Reply #23 on: December 21, 2015, 04:42:43 pm »
I remember those posts from Kurt and Alicia about missing him at junctions, not being available to pass up food or on hand to provide equipment changes.   

I can only anticipate that those issues would be even more significant in the UK road network, which lacks the long highways of the US.  To the extent that I view a "support crew" as not being the slam dunk for a UK attempt that some seem to hope.

There is also the vague consideration that Kurt is used to having support, from his endurance racing background.  Steve has a different tradition that may make it more difficult to adapt to a supported approach.  Not impossible though, provided he is comfortable with having to rely on other people (who may or may not be reliable 365/24/7).

LittleWheelsandBig

  • Whimsy Rider
Re: When will Kurt take Godwin's record?
« Reply #24 on: December 21, 2015, 04:59:34 pm »
Steve liked using intensive support during 24hr TTs.

Maybe this part of the discussion should be moved to a different thread - Current thoughts, perhaps?
Wheel meet again, don't know where, don't know when...