Yet Another Cycling Forum

General Category => Audax => PBP => Topic started by: Tom on 31 December, 2022, 10:54:12 am

Title: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Tom on 31 December, 2022, 10:54:12 am
I've just clocked that we're coming into a pbp year (I know, I know...) and am about to ask a question that I'm sure has been asked 1000s of times before, but so far unable to find a steer. I've had a good look through the qualification criteria and understand that I might theoretically be able to get a place, subject to completing an sr series this year, but just wondered whether anyone knows how likely it is that any places will be left by then? I haven't done any audax events since completing lel in 2007, but have always done lots of miles (12 and 24hr TTs, Torino-nice, SDW double etc) and am reasonably confident about the physical side of things. I'm also really up for an SR campaign, with a few bucket list events like the BCM, and will probably have a go at that regardless. However, I don't want to get too excited about PBP if people's experience is that it will likely fill up during the pre-registration phase. Hope that makes sense and thanks in advance!
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 31 December, 2022, 11:05:58 am
To date PBP has never actually sold out and the organiser expects that situation to continue for the next edition.

Last PBP, I was overly pessimistic about non-prequalified riders being able to enter it, which discouraged some folk. Don’t be discouraged, just plough on with getting the brevets done. You might not get your preferred start time but that isn’t actually important.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Tom on 31 December, 2022, 11:13:06 am
Thanks, that's brilliant news! Now I'm excited...
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: grams on 31 December, 2022, 11:48:53 am
Expect it to “sell out” during pre-registration but for a significant fraction of those people to not take places and thus lose their deposits. Spare places will then be resold in June.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Tom on 31 December, 2022, 02:26:23 pm
Thanks @grams. Just rejoined AUK and planning my first SR qualifier. Fingers crossed...
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: citoyen on 31 December, 2022, 04:39:06 pm
I’m in the same boat, but I’ve been here before.

All I can say is the reason I’ve never done PBP is not down to a lack of available places. I reckon the worst you can expect is not getting your first choice of start time.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 31 December, 2022, 04:55:43 pm
See you both on the start line.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: citoyen on 31 December, 2022, 08:22:25 pm
Chances of me being fit enough to enter this year are not looking good right now. Last brevet I did was a 200 in July 2021. Last one before that was September 2018!
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 31 December, 2022, 08:41:52 pm
I know somebody who DNFed a January 200 (having never ridden more than 100km before) and comfortably finished PBP in August. You are already well ahead of where she was in the December before PBP.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Lightning Phil on 31 December, 2022, 08:45:02 pm
You can but ride your bike, enter a March 200 that’s a PBP qualifier and go from there. A solid 2 months to build your fitness from where you are now, before trying a 200.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Wycombewheeler on 04 January, 2023, 02:33:59 pm
To date PBP has never actually sold out and the organiser expects that situation to continue for the next edition.

Last PBP, I was overly pessimistic about non-prequalified riders being able to enter it, which discouraged some folk. Don’t be discouraged, just plough on with getting the brevets done. You might not get your preferred start time but that isn’t actually important.

I have to agree with this, I think in 2019, places sold out halfway through the people with a BRM300 from 2018. Then many people failed the qualifiers and places became available to those who had pushed on with their qualifiers regardless. Those who had given up lost out, but all those who had ridden their SR series were able to ride PBP.

Also on the start time not making much difference, in PBP 2019 I had my preferred start time as one of the early 90hr group, and remained comfortably ahead of the bulge moving through controls easily. Most notable was waking up in Carhaix to find bodies everywhere, but when I had gone to sleep the night before it was quite quiet.

However on LEL, I did not get my preferred start time and bounced along hitting the back of the bulge, a few controls were busy, but I probably lost less than an hour in extra queueing across the entire ride. I suppose an hour lost might be crucial to some people, but most will finish on time either way.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: citoyen on 04 January, 2023, 06:14:09 pm
I know somebody who DNFed a January 200 (having never ridden more than 100km before) and comfortably finished PBP in August. You are already well ahead of where she was in the December before PBP.

But... er... er... I'm running out of excuses, dammit!  ;D
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ajax Bay on 05 January, 2023, 09:46:26 pm
To date PBP has never actually sold out and the organiser expects that situation to continue for the next edition.
Last PBP, I was overly pessimistic about non-prequalified riders being able to enter it, which discouraged some folk. Don’t be discouraged, just plough on with getting the brevets done. You might not get your preferred start time but that isn’t actually important.
I have to agree with this, I think in 2019, places sold out halfway through the people with a BRM300 from 2018. Then many people failed the qualifiers and places became available to those who had pushed on with their qualifiers regardless. Those who had given up lost out, but all those who had ridden their SR series were able to ride PBP.
. . .
What actually happened was that the places 'ran out' during the count down of those whose longest ride was a 300km in 2018. And then there was lots of Gallic sadness because loads of French riders seemed likely to be excluded from 'their' ride. So the Organisation miraculously 'found' another 850 starts slots (started 30 minutes earlier on Sunday afternoon and added a start time on Monday dawn). Starts still ran out (by 10 Apr) but were freed up in June.

Pre-registrations will be open on 14/01/2023 at noon (Paris time)[for those with 1000km+ BRMs or LRMs, and then every fortnight (600, 400, 300, 200 last on 11 Mar)] with overall 2500 starts reserved for 'French nationals'.
Start date Time limit    Remaining places
20/08    80h00    1249
20/08    90h00    4800
21/08    84h00    1550
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 06 January, 2023, 09:20:58 am

Pre-registrations will be open on 14/01/2023 at noon (Paris time)[for those with 1000km+ BRMs or LRMs, and then every fortnight (600, 400, 300, 200 last on 11 Mar)] with overall 2500 starts reserved for 'French nationals'.
Start date Time limit    Remaining places
20/08    80h00    1249
20/08    90h00    4800
21/08    84h00    1550

I see you got those numbers from the registration sub-site on the PBP 2023 site but 401 places seem to have disappeared already from the "remaining places" (the table totals 7599 not the 8,000 total / 2500 French / 5500 "rest" we were previously told was the limit, maybe the numbers have to be re-set for 2023? Guess we might know more after the weekend and the ACP "PBP Presentation" on Saturday afternoon (anyone going to be there?).

When the 2019 pre-registration "filled up" on 10 April 2019 there were about 1600 French pre-registered and 6000 "rest of the world" (total 7600) but the "rest"quota for 2023 will be max 5500 so already a bit of additional competition suggesting the rest of world pre-reg will fill earlier than early April?
 
The 2022 BRM stats* are not yet on the ACP site but there was an early December ACP FB site post saying the 2022 brevets were ahead of the 2018 (previous pre PBP year), details only for top 3 countries,  India: 13000 (2022) compared to 8461 (2018),  Japan: 12000 cf 13461 and France: 10200 cf 7226, all suggesting a still hot pre-reg from just those 3.

Rest of the "top 10 countries" (but no details) were  Thailand, USA, Italy, Brazil, Germany, UK and Malaysia (in order I assume?) The total brevet kms was noted as 31 million cf 32 million in 2018

Good luck everyone, my interest may well be just academic?

* https://www.audax-club-parisien.com/en/our-organizations/brm-world/#results-BRM
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ivo on 06 January, 2023, 11:22:43 am

Pre-registrations will be open on 14/01/2023 at noon (Paris time)[for those with 1000km+ BRMs or LRMs, and then every fortnight (600, 400, 300, 200 last on 11 Mar)] with overall 2500 starts reserved for 'French nationals'.
Start date Time limit    Remaining places
20/08    80h00    1249
20/08    90h00    4800
21/08    84h00    1550

I see you got those numbers from the registration sub-site on the PBP 2023 site but 401 places seem to have disappeared already from the "remaining places" (the table totals 7599 not the 8,000 total / 2500 French / 5500 "rest" we were previously told was the limit, maybe the numbers have to be re-set for 2023? Guess we might know more after the weekend and the ACP "PBP Presentation" on Saturday afternoon (anyone going to be there?).

I'll be there
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ajax Bay on 06 January, 2023, 09:17:05 pm

Pre-registrations will be open on 14/01/2023 at noon (Paris time)[for those with 1000km+ BRMs or LRMs, and then every fortnight (600, 400, 300, 200 last on 11 Mar)] with overall 2500 starts reserved for 'French nationals'.
Start date Time limit    Remaining places
20/08    80h00    1249
20/08    90h00    4800
21/08    84h00    1550

I see you got those numbers from the registration sub-site on the PBP 2023 site but 401 places seem to have disappeared already from the "remaining places" (the table totals 7599 not the 8,000 total / 2500 French / 5500 "rest" we were previously told was the limit, maybe the numbers have to be re-set for 2023? Guess we might know more after the weekend and the ACP "PBP Presentation" on Saturday afternoon . . 
The PBP Rule 3 is the source for "8000 of whom 2500 French" so more solid than what "we were previously told was the limit". Perhaps ACP just can't add up or they are working in a fudge factor. Of course they will monitor this and if the French pre-registrations look like getting up to 2500 they can release the extra slots (to make it up to 8000).
As the days of pre-registration tick over people can follow the reducing numbers. I recall (not working that early 2019 unlike at present) having endless fun tracking that. I will go back and have a look at the stats - edit: see @Ivo 's post after the 1000+ merchants had had their bite.
Unlike 2018 when I enjoyed Graeme's WH1000 - please run it again) and so pre-registered on 13 Jan and could select one of the earliest 90 hour starts, I rode no BRMs last year so I shall be SRing in expectation more than mere hope of snagging a start slot in June.
If someone still has a spare bed in mid June in one of the Huttopia cabines (we did in 2019 and managed to fill with a couple of solo riders) then I'll likely be v interested.
ACP stats:2018 homologations
1000km   2431
600km    10569
400km    13067
300km    20333
2000km  60599
By 22 Jan 2019 of the 2431 riders doing a 1000+km ride world-wide in 2018, 1926 had pre-registered.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 06 January, 2023, 09:42:57 pm
ACP stats:2018 homologations
1000km   2431
600km    10569
400km    13067
300km    20333
2000km  60599
By 22 Jan 2019 of the 2431 riders doing a 1000+km ride world-wide in 2018, 1926 had pre-registered.

A few folk had done more than 1 x 1000 in 2018, so a slightly higher percentage of 1000km riders had preregistered.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 06 January, 2023, 10:43:53 pm
And there is 2819 LRM homologations in 2022, 941 from UK (LEL plus others) and 136 from India. I don’t know how many of those are considered for the “1000/1200 & +” pre-reg category (all?). With an unknown number of 1000s the pre-reg quota might be half full on 14 January?

There were 1600 LRM in 2018
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Lightning Phil on 07 January, 2023, 01:31:34 pm
My 1000 in 2022 is showing as BRM in my PBP account info. It also has this message showing.

“ The French and 1200+ BRMs are not yet available!
Registration in the PBP does not depend on the results in this list”
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 09 January, 2023, 01:31:23 am

Pre-registrations will be open on 14/01/2023 at noon (Paris time)[for those with 1000km+ BRMs or LRMs, and then every fortnight (600, 400, 300, 200 last on 11 Mar)] with overall 2500 starts reserved for 'French nationals'.
Start date Time limit    Remaining places
20/08    80h00    1249
20/08    90h00    4800
21/08    84h00    1550

At this stage there is nothing much to do other than keep riding and some idle speculation. The 80 & 90h numbers are comparable with (slightly more than) the final completed registrations for 2019 (1227 & 4529) but the 1550 is considerably more than the 917 completed registrations in the 2019 84h group, maybe an attempt to shift / stretch the bulge? The "missing" 401 places might be "found" later or before the pre-reg starts.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ivo on 09 January, 2023, 06:12:26 am

Pre-registrations will be open on 14/01/2023 at noon (Paris time)[for those with 1000km+ BRMs or LRMs, and then every fortnight (600, 400, 300, 200 last on 11 Mar)] with overall 2500 starts reserved for 'French nationals'.
Start date Time limit    Remaining places
20/08    80h00    1249
20/08    90h00    4800
21/08    84h00    1550


The ACP over the past years tried to persuade people to start in the 84 hour group.
On saturday, Faburel stated quite clearly that he expects that everyone who qualifies can start but that those who didn't pre-qualify run the chance of missing their prefered starting slot.
I understand this as if you haven't pre-qualified, then there's a chance that you won't get a 90h starting spot but have to do with 84h.
At this stage there is nothing much to do other than keep riding and some idle speculation. The 80 & 90h numbers are comparable with (slightly more than) the final completed registrations for 2019 (1227 & 4529) but the 1550 is considerably more than the 917 completed registrations in the 2019 84h group, maybe an attempt to shift / stretch the bulge? The "missing" 401 places might be "found" later or before the pre-reg starts.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: frillipippi on 09 January, 2023, 06:24:15 am
I'm a great fan of 84 hour groups: a lot more day riding vs. night riding, starting at the end implies you'll mainly overtake other riders instead of been overtook and this boosts your morale, etc.
Nonetheless, this time I'll try and go for an afternoon start because the overall plan is to stay in downtown Paris with the family and there's no train in the early morning to get to Rambouillet in time for starting at 6 AM. If the start wasn't 50 km away from downtown or trains were available so early in the morning, I'd surely choose 84 hours. But riding a prologue of 50 km in the dark alone coming out of such a large town that I'm not familiar with, along a route I design by myself, is a no-no.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 09 January, 2023, 07:38:29 am
I have ridden 2x90, 2x84 and 2x90VS PBPs. I slightly prefer the early 90hr starts if you are average quick or quicker, to stay in front of the bulge throughout. A friend is slower than average and prefers the late 90hr starts to stay behind the bulge most of the way. HK prefers the 84hr start to avoid the bulge until near the finish.

The intermediate control closing times are often quite tight for the 84hr starts, so the advice to ‘race out, ride back’ is pretty accurate. The 90hr starts’ control closing times felt a bit more even-paced.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Paul D on 09 January, 2023, 09:09:22 am
The main reason I wouldn't do the 84 hour start again was the lack of ceremony at the off; stick with the 80 or 90 hour start if you want to be cheered off like a hero.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Wycombewheeler on 09 January, 2023, 10:32:01 am
The main reason I wouldn't do the 84 hour start again was the lack of ceremony at the off; stick with the 80 or 90 hour start if you want to be cheered off like a hero.
I heard that generally there is less fanfare all the way through as the towns and villages have become jaded by the time the 84hr riders come through. I've only experienced the 90 hour ride, so can't make comparisons.

Last time at the finish I thought about going for the 80hr start this time, but now I think there is no need to put extra pressure on myself, just take the first 90hr start and ride to Brest for the first sleep. Ride as if the limit is 80, but having a buffer.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 09 January, 2023, 10:47:52 am
Indeed, the 84hr start feels very low key compared to the 90hr start, until later in the event when you are passing 90hr starters. HK much prefers that small event feel while I like the fuss and drama of the 90hr (not done an 80hr start yet). Of course, slower riders self-select away from the 84hr starts.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Frank9755 on 09 January, 2023, 04:59:02 pm
I did 84 last time I rode and wouldn't do it again.  Many of the control staff were clearly exhausted and several controls had run out of food.  Early 90-hour was good in many ways but I do remember it as a 'dark ride' - lots of nighttime riding.  If riding solo again I'd do the 80 hour.   
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Lightning Phil on 09 January, 2023, 05:48:20 pm
Lots of night riding isn’t so bad if you don’t deal with the heat well.  It’s what I did on PBP 15.  Sleeping during the peak heat of the day and riding at night.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Wycombewheeler on 10 January, 2023, 11:30:10 am
Lots of night riding isn’t so bad if you don’t deal with the heat well.  It’s what I did on PBP 15.  Sleeping during the peak heat of the day and riding at night.
My garmin log from 2019 has a minimum night time temperature of 6C, and a maximum daytime temperature of 25C (It felt warmer than that on the wednesday afternoon) I'd prefer 25C to 6C any time.

It's also an approach for those with dynamos
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Frank9755 on 10 January, 2023, 01:03:54 pm
Lots of night riding isn’t so bad if you don’t deal with the heat well.  It’s what I did on PBP 15.  Sleeping during the peak heat of the day and riding at night.

I have sometimes done daytime naps to dodge heat in Italy or the Balkans, and was surprised more people didn't do it on LEL 2013, but my main temperature memory of 2015 was it being really cold on the Tuesday morning - down to about 3 degrees leaving Loudeac. But conditions can vary quite a bit if you are further up the road. 
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Pip on 10 January, 2023, 01:14:59 pm
If there are any inquisitive first-timers reading this, then particular focus should be paid to being adequately prepared for the late evening/night time/early morning temperature roughly between Loudeac and Carhaix on the outward leg, between Carhaix and St. Meen le Grand on the homeward leg, and in the Perche region.....(apart from 2007 when it was 14 degrees day and night), these stretches have always been much colder than anticipated when riding at night or early morning.

In 2003, the event took place at the tail end of a heatwave, with daytime temperatures in excess of 32 degrees Celsius. At night, the temperature plummeted, a real shock to the system, with a morale crushing effect. There was a hoar frost in the countryside leaving Loudeac on the way back.

In 2019, my Garmin registered an average of 6 degrees for the 80 kms leg between Loudeac and Carhaix, with a low reading of 4 degrees, it felt colder on the descents. On the homeward section the average was 7 degrees for 100 kms from Carhaix to St. Meen, with a low of 5 degrees. After Mortagne, the mercury dropped to 6 degrees for 20/30 kms. It always feels colder though.

As mentioned above, the daytime temps were easily around 25 degrees.

When the body and mind are tired and sleep deprived, these fluctuations can have a dramatic effect on mood and resolve, so my tip is, at the very least, to take a lightweight/packable gilet with some thermal quality to counteract the adverse physical and mental effects of the cold.



Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 10 January, 2023, 02:15:36 pm
Some of this information is worthwhile but perhaps it should be in a different thread that isn't discussing the likelihood of getting a PBP entry (I am as bad an offender as anybody on this thread).
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 14 January, 2023, 11:34:30 pm

Pre-registrations will be open on 14/01/2023 at noon (Paris time)[for those with 1000km+ BRMs or LRMs, and then every fortnight (600, 400, 300, 200 last on 11 Mar)] with overall 2500 starts reserved for 'French nationals'.
Start date Time limit    Remaining places
20/08    80h00    1250
20/08    90h00    4800
21/08    84h00    1550

The ACP over the past years tried to persuade people to start in the 84 hour group.
On saturday, Faburel stated quite clearly that he expects that everyone who qualifies can start but that those who didn't pre-qualify run the chance of missing their prefered starting slot.
I understand this as if you haven't pre-qualified, then there's a chance that you won't get a 90h starting spot but have to do with 84h.

After 12 hours there has been 1,779 registrations in total. While ACP might want to encourage people into the 84h group this is not proving popular with the punters so far, with 23% of the total places taken the 80h limit is at 25% taken, 90h 26% but 84h only 13% (all numbers based on the lower 7,600 places at the start of pre-registrations). Previously as pre-registrations have got into the shorter "longest rides" the preference for 90h increases. In 2019 ACP moved some hundreds of unused places from 84h into the 90h limit group during the pre-registration period and eventually the 84h group was 13.7% of the total fully registered riders.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: davocon on 18 January, 2023, 04:40:25 pm
Latest figures seem to be:

Initial "capacity"RemainingTaken% Taken
80hr125088736329.0
90hr48003200190033.3
84hr1550131623415.1
Overall76005403219728.0
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 21 January, 2023, 12:19:46 am
Looks like some admin / cleaning up of partial / duplicate / failed / unpaid pre-registrations done in the first week as the "available" has gone up by 42 places in the last 12 hours. French non-FFCT get a go from Saturday (noon?)

Currently

Date    Time limit    Remaining places
20/08    80h00            885
20/08    90h00          3209
21/08    84h00          1311

(was 877 / 3173 / 1310 12 hours ago)
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ajax Bay on 27 January, 2023, 12:44:53 pm
Looks like some admin / cleaning up of partial / duplicate / failed / unpaid pre-registrations done in the first week as the "available" has gone up by 42 places in the last 12 hours. French non-FFCT get a go from Saturday (noon?)

Currently

Date    Time limit    Remaining places
20/08    80h00            885
20/08    90h00          3209
21/08    84h00          1311

(was 877 / 3173 / 1310 12 hours ago)
600 in 2022 opportunity to pre-register opens in 22 hours. About 100 more have pre-registered in the last 7 days.

Date    Time limit Remaining places
20/08    80h00    859
20/08    90h00    3138
21/08    84h00    1296
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: CrazyEnglishTriathlete on 27 January, 2023, 06:23:21 pm
I rode 90hr in 2007 and 80hr in 2011, 2015.  Although I am slower now than in 2015 will still aim for the 80hr for the following reasons:

1) riders seemed to be much better at riding in formation and so the passage as far as Villaines was much easier.
2) staff at controls are fresh and the queues are manageable so I don't have to go hunting for food
3) earlier start time - I really don't like late evening starts as my dead time (11 - 3) comes too early in the ride) and it means I can make Brest on the Monday night, which I can't do with the 90-hour start times.

As for places, if it's sold out, I still have a week's pass for late August so will just do something nice on my tod instead.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Neil C on 28 January, 2023, 03:09:34 pm

600 in 2022 opportunity to pre-register opens in 22 hours. About 100 more have pre-registered in the last 7 days.

Date    Time limit Remaining places
20/08    80h00    859
20/08    90h00    3138
21/08    84h00    1296

Four hours after it opened for the people with a 600 the website has settled down a little. Now showing

Date    Time limit Remaining places
20/08    80h00    638
20/08    90h00    1959
21/08    84h00    1144

So still 3741 places left. Earliest available 90 hour start is now 19:15.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: CrazyEnglishTriathlete on 28 January, 2023, 09:06:44 pm
I just got my preferred slot at the back of the vedettes, the A and B groups were showing as 0 available but I think they are reserved for particularly fast riders. 
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: phil dubya on 28 January, 2023, 10:48:07 pm
As it stands nearly over 3300 entries still available.

20/08   80h00   572
20/08   90h00   1697
21/08   84h00   1106

I think if you Audaxed in 2022 on a qualifying ride of 300km+ then you'll probably be ok.  As mentioned above, if you don't get in initially you will by August.  I've not checked any historic data, but I think LEL riders who got in early due to the 2022 delay, would have otherwise ridden a 600k anyway, so it's likely to have settled down now.

Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: frillipippi on 28 January, 2023, 11:55:44 pm
I just got my preferred slot at the back of the vedettes, the A and B groups were showing as 0 available but I think they are reserved for particularly fast riders.
Two weeks ago groups A and B were available, they must have filled up in the meanwhile.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 29 January, 2023, 12:22:00 am
As it stands nearly over 3300 entries still available.

...... so it's likely to have settled down now.

Pre-registrations for 2023 are currently running a few hundred ahead of the same point in 2019.

There are a few factors that will determine where we end up.

1. While all the announcements have referenced a total of 8000 places with a quota for French of 2500 (ie rest 5500) the actual "available" at the start of pre-registration only added up to 7600 so someone has 400 places up their jersey sleeve to distribute somewhere.
2. The organisers want to spread the bulge by encouraging riders into the 84h group but this is again still not very popular so far, after 12 hours of the 600 group pre-reg there is 56% of total places taken with 54% of the 80h limit taken, 65% of 90h but only 29% of 84h. In previous years 84h places have been reallocated to 90h during the pre-reg but will this happen again, if not then slower riders may have to take 84h places as the 90h places will likely fill up first.
3. The "French" quota may come into play, in 2019 only 24% of final registered riders were French (1573 of 6673) and ACP are aiming for at least 31% in 2023 (2500 of 8000) but early indications seem to be lower. On Monday 16/01 Elisabeth Lavaill (an ACP ride organiser so perhaps knowledgeable as to the numbers) reassured ACP FB readers that "there were still over 2200 places available for French riders") , this at a time when there were about 2000 pre-reg in total so say 300 French equals only 15% (but pure speculation from one data point!)

Still a way to go, still no 2022 BRM numbers so no guide from there (there were 2800 LRM compared with 1600 in 2018). Keep riding.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: frillipippi on 29 January, 2023, 08:25:06 am
As it stands nearly over 3300 entries still available.

...... so it's likely to have settled down now.

Pre-registrations for 2023 are currently running a few hundred ahead of the same point in 2019.

There are a few factors that will determine where we end up.

1. While all the announcements have referenced a total of 8000 places with a quota for French of 2500 (ie rest 5500) the actual "available" at the start of pre-registration only added up to 7600 so someone has 400 places up their jersey sleeve to distribute somewhere.
2. The organisers want to spread the bulge by encouraging riders into the 84h group but this is again still not very popular so far, after 12 hours of the 600 group pre-reg there is 56% of total places taken with 54% of the 80h limit taken, 65% of 90h but only 29% of 84h. In previous years 84h places have been reallocated to 90h during the pre-reg but will this happen again, if not then slower riders may have to take 84h places as the 90h places will likely fill up first.
3. The "French" quota may come into play, in 2019 only 24% of final registered riders were French (1573 of 6673) and ACP are aiming for at least 31% in 2023 (2500 of 8000) but early indications seem to be lower. On Monday 16/01 Elisabeth Lavaill (an ACP ride organiser so perhaps knowledgeable as to the numbers) reassured ACP FB readers that "there were still over 2200 places available for French riders") , this at a time when there were about 2000 pre-reg in total so say 300 French equals only 15% (but pure speculation from one data point!)

Still a way to go, still no 2022 BRM numbers so no guide from there (there were 2800 LRM compared with 1600 in 2018). Keep riding.

2. I loved 84h in 2015, but 5AM to 6AM is very early, I'd say too early, especially keeping into account that 2.1) Rambouillet hotels etc. haven't got enough beds for all of us and our accompanying families and 2.2) trains from Paris Montparnasse don't run so early in the morning. Maybe from Chartres, but it's not easy to make your family wait for you in Chartres when the name of the event is Paris-Brest-Paris. Many threads in YACF talk about the fact that the starting place of a well organised brevet should be easily reached without a car, I won't say anything more here.

3. You can find some interesting numbers here: www.paris-brest-paris.org/la-premiere-vague-des-pre-inscriptions-quelques-chiffres   It looks like French riders are taking the pre-inscription more easily than foreigners. It's understandable: the farther you come from, the earlier you start organizing your trip and holiday.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ivo on 29 January, 2023, 10:01:17 am
There's a hug campsite in Rambouillet with lot's of luxury options, as cabins and safari tents. Why focus on hotels?
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ajax Bay on 29 January, 2023, 11:16:31 am
There's a hug campsite in Rambouillet with lot's of luxury options, as cabins and safari tents. Why focus on hotels?
Off topic for an 'odds' thread, but Huggopia options which most non-riding familes might consider 'luxury'  are fully booked, @Ivo. Or are you "focusing" on another campsite? My family enjoyed using our cabane last time, while I/we were 'en route'. YFMV
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Bagman on 29 January, 2023, 01:08:29 pm
Just booked large tent with electric hook up at Huttopia Rambouillet  17 Aug to 26 Aug
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: frillipippi on 29 January, 2023, 03:27:00 pm
There's a hug campsite in Rambouillet with lot's of luxury options, as cabins and safari tents. Why focus on hotels?
I wasn't focusing on hotels: I wrote "hotels etc." where the etc. was meant to include other forms of accomodation.
Anyway you're right, Ivo, in the sense that there's more than just accomodation: the demand for an 84h start time compatible with public transport from Paris doesn't arise from an accomodation issue only - if any, I grant you - but more generally from the fact that accompanying families find Paris more attractive than Rambouillet: Louvre vs Bergerie Nationale or whatever the main attraction of Rambouillet is.
My opinion is that in order to make 84h groups more attractive, PBP organization should either find a way to have some special train leaving from Paris Montparnasse early enough, or adjust the start time to consider train timetables. Where I live the second option would be way more reasonable than the first; I don't know if in France things would be very different. So, in the current situation, no wonder that 84h slots remain almost empty.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: CrazyEnglishTriathlete on 29 January, 2023, 05:50:34 pm
Most of the people that I have met that have tried the 84h have found it harder than they thought - the start time (plus the need to be at the start somewhat earlier than for a low key Audax event) means that they start with a short/disturbed night of sleep.  They then have to ride through the tail and into the bulge of the 90-hour riders, which means they get the worst of the controls.  I thought about it briefly the last two times, but reckoned if I was fast enough to get round the 84h, I'd probably be able to make the 80h.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: CrazyEnglishTriathlete on 29 January, 2023, 05:55:47 pm
As for accommodation, have booked a hotel in Maintenon - which is 20 mins from Chartres and 1 hour from Orleans - which are easier places for Mrs CET to visit than Paris, if she does decided to accompany me.  It's 22km from the start, which won't be a problem going in - a gentle warm up, but is on a tramline to Rambouillet if the legs don't fancy it after the finish.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ivo on 29 January, 2023, 06:46:40 pm
There's a hug campsite in Rambouillet with lot's of luxury options, as cabins and safari tents. Why focus on hotels?
Off topic for an 'odds' thread, but Huggopia options which most non-riding familes might consider 'luxury'  are fully booked, @Ivo. Or are you "focusing" on another campsite? My family enjoyed using our cabane last time, while I/we were 'en route'. YFMV

I booked the cabane in november, then there was still plenty of space.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 30 January, 2023, 03:05:30 am
  It looks like French riders are taking the pre-inscription more easily than foreigners.

Yes the numbers you point to as at a few days ago are worse than the French 15% I quoted above which was from 16/01. The ACP review of the BRM 1000 & LRM pre-registrations indicates the French proportion is only 12% (271 of 2260 "validated" pre-registrations) as at 26/01 near the end of the first 2 weeks pre-registrations.
https://www.paris-brest-paris.org/en/first-pre-registration-wave-some-numbers/ (English Version)

There were 207 French LRMs in 2022 (compared with 119 in 2018) so unless the BRM 1000 numbers had collapsed you would expect a reasonable pool of people with a good longest ride. Is there any reason to believe French long distance riding is not healthy? Maybe they will have to allow French registrations without a longest ride requirement or even a 2023 qualification SR to make up the 2500 quota?

PS The only 2022 brevet numbers that have been published included only the "top three countries" which included France with 10200 compared with  7226 in 2018, so a reasonable increase (no details as to distance breakdown)
https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=124818.msg2779975#msg2779975
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ivo on 30 January, 2023, 05:54:58 am
French long distance riding is certainly not healthy.
There are only 3 regions in France where there are multiple clubs organising BRM's consistently in non-PBP years. North, Bretagne and Ile de France. For the rest there are either individual clubs (or rather said, individual organisers) scattered over a few places or absolutely nothing. This creates a situation where riders don't do any long distances except for the PBP years.
Also on the technical field, the situation is unhealthy. For your average French cyclist it's impossible to buy decent lighting from local sources. Only very few online shops offer decent lighting. One of my French friends was flabbergasted when in a German building market he spotted 70 lux dynamo lights and 80 lux battery lights, just hanging about in the bike section.
The French clubs complaining about the lack of French riders during PBP should look at themselves, if you offer a lot of rides, at accessible spots and with accessible starttimes (not 4am for a 300), there'll be a lot more new randonneurs. Especially if they can build up in the years prior to PBP.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Flâneur on 30 January, 2023, 12:38:49 pm
There were 207 French LRMs in 2022 (compared with 119 in 2018)

There were 207 LRM homologations on French soil last year. I don't think it's possible from the LRM database to determine how many French/FFCT riders completed a qualifying 1200+ abroad (including LEL)
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ajax Bay on 04 February, 2023, 10:30:15 am
As it stands nearly over 3300 entries still available.

20/08   80h00   572
20/08   90h00   1697
21/08   84h00   1106

I think if you Audaxed in 2022 on a qualifying ride of 300km+ then you'll probably be ok.  As mentioned above, if you don't get in initially you will by August.  I've not checked any historic data, but I think LEL riders who got in early due to the 2022 delay, would have otherwise ridden a 600k anyway, so it's likely to have settled down now.
With minutes to pre-registrations opening for non-FFCT French with a 600 BRM last year (not many of those - ?200) and therefore most of the '600s' in, the current number of starts left are:
4 Feb    Time limit  Remaining  Taken by '600s'
20/08    80h00    501             358
20/08    90h00    1494           1644
21/08    84h00    1063            233

27 Jan - pre-600             Taken by '1000s'
20/08    80h00    859       390
20/08    90h00    3138     1662
21/08    84h00    1296      354

13 Jan - pre-1000
20/08    80h00    1249
20/08    90h00    4800
21/08    84h00    1550

Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: CrazyEnglishTriathlete on 04 February, 2023, 08:35:38 pm
And many of those who have registered will end up not riding, either because of other commitments or for not getting their qualifying rides in.  As a case in point, I had a guaranteed (previous volunteer place) on LEL last year, but did not enter because of a clash with a significant wedding anniversary.

For PBP that's easily the case.  All it takes is an ill-timed illness or one of those freak mechanicals, and the planned 600 is out of the window with no time to get in a replacement event.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: David H on 07 February, 2023, 03:08:22 pm
Having broken my collarbone coming off our tandem on Saterday, I think the odds are getting longer. >:(
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Zed43 on 09 February, 2023, 08:28:37 am
ACP posted some stats of registrations (https://www.paris-brest-paris.org/vague-des-brm-600/) at the end of the BRM600 cohort. Already more registrations from India than there riders from that country last time (hopefully this time more than 15% will finish...)

I'm really curious whether the 2500 allotted places for the French will actually be used; by the time they wake up and head over to registration only the unpopular 84h slots will be left, will they then decide to ride anyway?
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 09 February, 2023, 09:20:12 am
ACP posted some stats of registrations (https://www.paris-brest-paris.org/vague-des-brm-600/) at the end of the BRM600 cohort. Already more registrations from India than there riders from that country last time (hopefully this time more than 15% will finish...)

I'm really curious whether the 2500 allotted places for the French will actually be used; by the time they wake up and head over to registration only the unpopular 84h slots will be left, will they then decide to ride anyway?

Approaching two thirds of places taken the "French" are still only at less than 20% rather than the 31% target, Alain COLLONGUES (ACP) says " the French, knowing that 2,500 places are reserved for them, have not necessarily sought to obtain pre-qualification certificates", will they be allowed to register without?.

A quota of 2500 French means that the "others" can only pre-register until there are 5500 of them (leaving a potential 2500 for French), the 90h will likely fill up at a similar time, as far as I can see this number will be reached during the 300 longest brevet group and pre-registration will stop for non-French and continue for French 300s & 200s  and as you say there will likely only be 80 & 84h left for them. When the general registration opens (late May) it will only be for French? Gets messy then when the pre-registrations for riders without 3 2023 qualifying rides are cancelled (late June) and a new free for all for riders with 3 qualifiers but the two quotas will still apply? Will French riders without all qualifiers be allowed to register in order to fill the quota? I am in favour of encouraging a degree of Frenchness for PBP but I hope all the issues have been thought through.

I guess just keep riding,
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Lightning Phil on 09 February, 2023, 09:25:13 am
Having broken my collarbone coming off our tandem on Saterday, I think the odds are getting longer. >:(

Bugger, heal well
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ajax Bay on 10 February, 2023, 07:18:55 pm
With minutes to pre-registrations opening for non-FFCT French with a 600 BRM last year (not many of those - ?200) and therefore most of the '600s' in, the current number of starts left are:
4 Feb    Time limit  Remaining  Taken by '600s'
20/08    80h00    501             358
20/08    90h00    1494           1644
21/08    84h00    1063            233
With 30 hours to pre-registrations opening for 400 BRMs last year, the current number of starts left are:
Date    Time limit   Remaining places Taken by 600s (incl French non-FFCT)
20/08    80h00    418                       431
20/08    90h00    1349                    1789   
21/08    84h00    1023                     273

Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ajax Bay on 12 February, 2023, 03:36:32 pm
With 30 hours to pre-registrations opening for 400 BRMs last year, the current number of starts left are:
Date    Time limit   Remaining places Taken by 600s (incl French non-FFCT)
20/08    80h00    418                       431
20/08    90h00    1349                    1789   
21/08    84h00    1023                     273
Twenty-eight hours after the 400s got a bite, here are the remaining starts:
Date    Time limit  Remaining places Taken by 400s (so far)
20/08    80h00    285                      133
20/08    90h00    743                      606
21/08    84h00    939                      84

Looks like there's going to be a lot of 'chancers' starting on Monday.
[Speculative 200 BRM completed yesterday.]
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: madcow on 15 February, 2023, 12:57:33 pm
Still over 500 places for 90 hour group ,albeit with late starts.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ajax Bay on 15 February, 2023, 01:20:32 pm
Still over 500 places for 90 hour group ,albeit with late starts.
675
All the 300s still to have a bite, let alone the 200s.
Date    Time limit   Remaining places
20/08    80h00    264
20/08    90h00    675
21/08    84h00    928
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: grecko on 15 February, 2023, 03:08:12 pm
Still over 500 places for 90 hour group ,albeit with late starts.
675
All the 300s still to have a bite, let alone the 200s.
Date    Time limit   Remaining places
20/08    80h00    264
20/08    90h00    675
21/08    84h00    928

To add more info, note that there is only 7700 spots spread over all the groups on the site, so I guess the ACP keeps 300 spots to redistribute them later.

Here are the first non-special available group for each time limit, as advertised by the PBP website:
80h: group D with 76 spots left, starting at 16:45
90h: group S with 29 spots left, starting at 20:30
84h: group X with 182 spots left, starting at 05:15
The last group of the 90h and 84h starts appears to be preferred compared to the second to last group (90 registered for the U vs 16 for the T, 89 for the + vs 22 for the Z)

Both special groups are still available.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: GdS on 17 February, 2023, 05:56:49 pm
what's the current status for complete noobs? I have a clubmate who's up for it but has only done 1 200 (and not a BRM) in 2022
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 17 February, 2023, 09:07:20 pm
what's the current status for complete noobs? I have a clubmate who's up for it but has only done 1 200 (and not a BRM) in 2022

Won’t get a look in until late June (20th) when places will become available from pre-registered riders who have not done at least 3 qualifying 2023 SR rides by then and their pre-registered status is cancelled. At which stage your clubmate will have to have at least 3 if not all 4 2023 SR rides compete so tell them to get cracking.

Currently the pre-reg places will likely fill up in the next few weeks during the 300km longest 2022 brevet 2 week period especially for non French as this quota (5500 places) will be reached before the total places (8000) fill and especially for 90h places.

PS. Nominally the registration for non pre-registered riders starts on 27 May but there will be no places available then until the 20 June cancellations occur
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: GdS on 17 February, 2023, 11:22:46 pm
what's the current status for complete noobs? I have a clubmate who's up for it but has only done 1 200 (and not a BRM) in 2022

Won’t get a look in until late June (20th) when places will become available from pre-registered riders who have not done at least 3 qualifying 2023 SR rides by then and their pre-registered status is cancelled. At which stage your clubmate will have to have at least 3 if not all 4 2023 SR rides compete so tell them to get cracking.

Currently the pre-reg places will likely fill up in the next few weeks during the 300km longest 2022 brevet 2 week period especially for non French as this quota (5500 places) will be reached before the total places (8000) fill and especially for 90h places.

PS. Nominally the registration for non pre-registered riders starts on 27 May but there will be no places available then until the 20 June cancellations occur

ok thanks  :) that's pretty much what I thought. In 2006 there were no prequalifying rides it was down to getting the SR in asap which I did. I did the very first qualifying 600 (BCM) but all the AUK entries were sent in together so early rides did not get any advantage
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: grams on 18 February, 2023, 12:29:28 am
What are the chances ACP look at the numbers on June 20th and decide the ride is full?

Have they confirmed definitely that places will be resold? I know it’s pretty likely but I’d love to see it in writing.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Hofnar on 18 February, 2023, 08:22:00 am
What are the chances ACP look at the numbers on June 20th and decide the ride is full?

Have they confirmed definitely that places will be resold? I know it’s pretty likely but I’d love to see it in writing.

Hard too tell.

But 2019 might give an idea. They increased the numbers of pre inscriptions and said no places available in june. But in the end so many didn't  confirm that they reopend entries( round the 25 th) and didn't even manage  to sell those places.

But things might be a bit different as in 2019 many believed the no more places so didn't complete the series I expect more to continue so more interest for the june slots.
Also pre inscription was increased from 30 to 50 Euro's so more likely less chancers( in 2019 quite some people pre entered who where likely not to complete the series but thought 30 bucks ain't much to keep my options open)

I haven't seen anything in the rules about places being resold. But then in 2019 the explicitly said they would'nt but did. And there where many I was one of those to benefit from those and there was even a very vast choice of groups available. I entered in B on  sunday 23/06 that year 1500 pre entries where abandonned.
The rules do mention a waiting list for when entries are sold out so might be good to watch out for more information on that one.

Do be ready for the reopening cos places will go fast and good groups even faster. Create an account on the website before and check that your BRM are present. You don't need all but I believe at least 3 out of 4 by that date, in any case most will have done all as limit date is only two weeks later. In 2019  even some extra BRM where organised in those ten days for those missing one so they could fill up their gaps.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 18 February, 2023, 08:33:05 am
What are the chances ACP look at the numbers on June 20th and decide the ride is full?

Have they confirmed definitely that places will be resold? I know it’s pretty likely but I’d love to see it in writing.

You are correct , I can't find a specific statement how the later parts of the registration will be handled especially with the French quota, ACP can manage it as they want to achieve whatever goals they wish. In 2019 there were 1500 pre-registrations cancelled due to not achieving the 3 SR rides by late June and they only offered 900 places to replace these.

I assume the PBP "costs" include a large fixed component and they will want some break even number of registrations to cover these. ACP has highlighted the 2500 French / 5500 others / 8000 total targets for 2023 and everyone assumes the trend for bigger / better PBP will drive the numbers higher. As at 13/Feb there were 1240 French and 4540 non-French pre-registrations so the "others" are on target for filling the 5500 quota in a few weeks (with 300 longest rides?) but the French are lagging so might continue into French only 200 longest rides but what happens after that has no precedent, are they so wedded to 2500 French that they will modify some qualification requirements?

Alain COLLONGUES (ACP) said on 8/Feb (in the French section of the PBP 23 site), " the French, knowing that 2,500 places are reserved for them, have not necessarily sought to obtain pre-qualification certificates" so he is expecting an issue with the normal pre-registration process?

Endless discussion fodder on those long qualification rides?

PS having rediscovered some old 2019 spreadsheets I see that when pre-registration "filled up" at 10/04/2019 there were (approx) 1600 French and 6000 non-French, I assume pre-registration in 2023 for non-French will stop at 5500 and may or may not recommence later if the French quota is not going to fill?
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Hofnar on 18 February, 2023, 09:24:20 am


Alain COLLONGUES (ACP) said on 8/Feb (in the French section of the PBP 23 site), " the French, knowing that 2,500 places are reserved for them, have not necessarily sought to obtain pre-qualification certificates" so he is expecting an issue with the normal pre-registration process?



He just means that their entries will be more back loaded. As they didn't do many BRM's(there aren't that many outside PBP year in any case) So many in the french relaxed attitude didn't bother and will enter late.

FYI I am not french but have been living there for a while and follow the discussions on french boards.

There is a limited groupof long distance passionates. and then there are the masses that around this time of the year hear about PBP(again) and get the bike and long distance interest/motivation out from under the dust.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Suffolk Born on 18 February, 2023, 10:11:26 am
Totally agree with the above, many in France have just entered their 200BRM.

As of 13.03.23 - 5777 pre inscriptions, so looking like a full house later on. 65 countries represented.

Regards
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ajax Bay on 18 February, 2023, 03:34:12 pm
Facts and (post today) supposition
ACP stated 8000 of which 2500 reserved for French nationals.
Availability on the pre-registration mechanism was 7600.
As @ 18 Feb, 5820 have pre-registered, of whom (estimate) 1300 French: 1780 remain shown as available.
Assume 1000 of those will be kept for French (and another 200 released on 27 May - for French only).
1030 pre-registered with a 400 last year.
2493 pre-registered with a 600 last year.
2297 pre-registered with a 1000 (and +) last year.
Opportunity for non-FRA riders to pre-register is now 780: surely we can assume that anyone slow at 1100 UTC on 25 March will find pre-registration closed. Suspect pre-registration will remain open for FRA nationals.
27 May: Registration proper opens, but additional starts released only for FRA nationals (up to the balance of 2500)
[Registration requires 3 BRM homologation numbers (select any 3 from 200, 300, 400, 600 (or longer ride(s) in lieu).]
20 Jun: Any pre-registered riders who have not converted their pre-r to registration (and paid full entry fee balance) will have their pre-registration 'cancelled'. Last time there were more than 1500 cancellations and these slots (starts and start wave slots) were 'released' for others to register (as in 'enter').
Anyone taking this route (I am one) will need three BRM homologation numbers (select any 3 from 200, 300, 400, 600 (or longer ride(s) in lieu)) ready to submit as part of that entry.
"You can register before having completed the last qualifying brevet, but your registration will be cancelled and not refunded if we don’t receive its homologation number, at least on July 2, 2023 (at midnight French time)."
2 Jul 2300 UTC-1 = BST: All those who have registered (whether pre-registered or otherwise) must have provided all 4 BRM homologation numbers by then.
In UK (we are lucky) there are nine BRM 600s in the period 17-24 Jun thanks to the great efforts of all the organisers for the last.minute.com merchants and AudaxUK has systems in place to turn the submitted results from those round in short order to allow riders relying on a 'result' to have that last homologation number.

https://www.paris-brest-paris.org/en/how-to-register/
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Von Broad on 18 February, 2023, 11:38:23 pm
20 Jun: Any pre-registered riders who have not converted their pre-r to registration (and paid full entry fee balance) will have their pre-registration 'cancelled'. Last time there were more than 1500 cancellations and these slots (starts and start wave slots) were 'released' for others to register (as in 'enter').

This was the mistake [if you can call it that :-)] I made in 2019. With all places being taken with pre-qualifying riders, I gave up the ghost on the 600, only to find subsequently that it was possible to climb on board at the last minute.......had I bagged all the rides in 2019 that is.
Moral of the story: anybody wanting to do the ride who hasn't done a pre-qualifying ride in 2022, will 'most likely' [hold with a lightness of touch] be able to. You've just got to prepare yourself with the assumption that it's going to be possible. The French love a drama :-)
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Tom on 19 February, 2023, 12:37:43 pm
20 Jun: Any pre-registered riders who have not converted their pre-r to registration (and paid full entry fee balance) will have their pre-registration 'cancelled'. Last time there were more than 1500 cancellations and these slots (starts and start wave slots) were 'released' for others to register (as in 'enter').

This was the mistake [if you can call it that :-)] I made in 2019. With all places being taken with pre-qualifying riders, I gave up the ghost on the 600, only to find subsequently that it was possible to climb on board at the last minute.......had I bagged all the rides in 2019 that is.
Moral of the story: anybody wanting to do the ride who hasn't done a pre-qualifying ride in 2022, will 'most likely' [hold with a lightness of touch] be able to. You've just got to prepare yourself with the assumption that it's going to be possible. The French love a drama :-)

A great shout! I'm very much in that category and am going to plough on regardless. All being well, I should have completed my 4 BRM rides by June 20th (starting with a 200 on Wednesday), so I'll crack on and keep my fingers crossed that there are enough drop outs....
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 20 February, 2023, 10:46:36 pm
Facts and (post today) supposition
ACP stated 8000 of which 2500 reserved for French nationals.
Availability on the pre-registration mechanism was 7600.
As @ 18 Feb, 5820 have pre-registered, of whom (estimate) 1300 French: 1780 remain shown as available.
Assume 1000 of those will be kept for French (and another 200 released on 27 May - for French only).
...................
Opportunity for non-FRA riders to pre-register is now 780:

Somewhat tighter for us slower riders and especially tight for French riders who have "delayed" their pre-registration, (with a 300 or 200 longest BRM), only 35% (611 652) of the current available are 90h. The 84h places are only at 41% taken compared to 83% for 84h & 87% for 90h . I would expect some 84h places will have to be transferred to 90h at some stage. The G - L groups have a 350 place capacity but M - U only 270 so some spare room (at the expense of a fatter bulge).

Specials not much more than 50% so my cunning plan is to research bents, buy one, learn to ride from zero, master a SR on it and train up for 1200, how hard can that be? (maybe a 2027 plan?)

PS: Someone is working late at ACP, at midnight the available places increased by about 60, presumably due to the ongoing "validation" of entries, people not paying for their pre-registration after 3 days, mismatch in identification / longest BRM details? Odd that people pre-registering are making  so many mistakes, deliberate??, hope not, but it is a not so funny world these days.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Frank9755 on 21 February, 2023, 08:27:23 am
Thanks for this info about specials. I was wondering what the situation was and hasn't been able to see from the official site.
I've only got a counting 200 so that sounds promising.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 21 February, 2023, 08:44:40 am
Thanks for this info about specials. I was wondering what the situation was and hasn't been able to see from the official site.
I've only got a 200 so that sounds promising.

ACP have published several charts & tables of data, after each "longest BRM" group of pre-registrations. The 400 (and previous groups) data (as at today?) has been published on the French version PBP site https://www.paris-brest-paris.org/vague-des-brm-400/

It includes the pre-registrations by start group. For specials the F Group (90h) has 158 pre-registrations of 270 available and the V (84h) Group has 14 of 50. The data has only just appeared so Mr Google is translating it for me just now
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Wycombewheeler on 21 February, 2023, 09:18:44 am
does a Brompton count as a special?

Reckon it could be fun.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: JasGill on 21 February, 2023, 11:55:07 am
Hi All

Considering that only later start times will be available for those of us with 'only' a 300 from last year next Saturday, would there be a major risk in not pre-registering now and completing the SR series of rides and registering at a later date when places open up due to drop outs etc. hoping for an earlier start time slot. Otherwise, is there any way to pre-register now and change your start time at a later date.
Regards
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Lightning Phil on 21 February, 2023, 12:19:43 pm
does a Brompton count as a special?

Reckon it could be fun.

Yes
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 21 February, 2023, 12:44:43 pm
does a Brompton count as a special?

Reckon it could be fun.

Yes

Yes but Velo Speciale is self-identified anyway e.g. some small-wheelers choose VS90 but HK and I rode in the normal 90hr and 84hr groups on our small-wheelers. There were standard big-wheelers in VS90 at PBP19.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 21 February, 2023, 12:46:21 pm
Hi All

Considering that only later start times will be available for those of us with 'only' a 300 from last year next Saturday, would there be a major risk in not pre-registering now and completing the SR series of rides and registering at a later date when places open up due to drop outs etc. hoping for an earlier start time slot. Otherwise, is there any way to pre-register now and change your start time at a later date.
Regards

We have no idea what ACP will do this time round. Last time, entrants could shift groups after pre-registration but that option got closed down at some point.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 23 February, 2023, 01:08:30 am
Hi All

Considering that only later start times will be available for those of us with 'only' a 300 from last year next Saturday, would there be a major risk in not pre-registering now and completing the SR series of rides and registering at a later date when places open up due to drop outs etc. hoping for an earlier start time slot. Otherwise, is there any way to pre-register now and change your start time at a later date.
Regards

I would say a pre-registration in the hand (on Saturday) is worth a hundred on the never never. There is considerable risk of registrations going French only after the 300s as the non-French will be close to their 5500 limit and beyond that is all green field stuff with (as LW&B says) no-one sure what ACP will do. There is no guarantee any released places/times will be reallocated and if they are might be French only if they are still below their 2500 target? ACP have talked a lot about increasing the French proportion.

I know a couple of 4 times PBPers who went for a late 90h start ( the 21:00) in 2019 and reckon it was the best PBP they had done, behind the bulge most of the way, no-one passing them , lots of self esteem building passing other riders, the timings just worked well for them. Headwise for you it is going to be better to have your pre-reg sorted now so you can just get on with the qualifications rather than waiting some weeks/months.... and having your enthusiasm wane?
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: zacklaws on 23 February, 2023, 07:18:16 am
Since I saw that PBP 2023 was going to have 8500 places, straight away I thought that back in 2015, it was said that they was running at max capacity of around 6500 and could not cope with increasing the numbers in future years.

In 2019, it started if I recall with about 6500 places, then at some point after June, created an additional 1000+ places, which seemed to cause confusion as to who could grab them but it was solely for riders with no pre-qualification but had done the qualifiers but could not get one of the 6500 initial places. These additional 1000+ places was to fill in the gaps of riders who failed to qualify etc and also a few extra places to cover for even more drop outs etc.

From what I understand, there is always about 1000+ who fail to start and that is why they could add those in extra places as a lot of riders had failed to qualify who had preregistered etc

I think that this year, the PBP organisation is planning ahead, created 8500 places, they know 1000+ will not start and this will drop the number to of riders to a manageable number and at the same time remove the last minute frenzy of people grabbing places when they release more places, which will them make it to easier to know what the starting figures are end of June so they can sort the finances out,  catering out, printing jerseys etc rather than last minute in July early August.

Basically, I have a feeling that there will be no more additional places going to be released around end of June. It is a big leap from 6500 riders which was deemed manageable to 8500 riders. It must be about a 30% increase.

But, it's just a feeling and thinking behind the scenes of why 8500 initial places but I could be wrong.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Jethro on 23 February, 2023, 09:18:33 am
Qualifying events during March could be interesting as there is speculation that a new Beast From The East is likely.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ajax Bay on 23 February, 2023, 12:11:01 pm
Since I saw that PBP 2023 was going to have 8500 places, straight away I thought that back in 2015, it was said that they was running at max capacity of around 6500 and could not cope with increasing the numbers in future years.

In 2019, it started if I recall with about 6500 places, then at some point after June, created an additional 1000+ places, which seemed to cause confusion as to who could grab them but it was solely for riders with no pre-qualification but had done the qualifiers but could not get one of the 6500 initial places. These additional 1000+ places was to fill in the gaps of riders who failed to qualify etc and also a few extra places to cover for even more drop outs etc.

From what I understand, there is always about 1000+ who fail to start and that is why they could add those in extra places as a lot of riders had failed to qualify who had preregistered etc

I think that this year, the PBP organisation is planning ahead, created 8500 places, they know 1000+ will not start and this will drop the number to of riders to a manageable number and at the same time remove the last minute frenzy of people grabbing places when they release more places, which will them make it to easier to know what the starting figures are end of June so they can sort the finances out,  catering out, printing jerseys etc rather than last minute in July early August.
Basically, I have a feeling that there will be no more additional places going to be released around end of June. It is a big leap from 6500 riders which was deemed manageable to 8500 riders. It must be about a 30% increase.
But, it's just a feeling and thinking behind the scenes of why 8500 initial places but I could be wrong.
Hope you'll not mind if I offer some accuracy, inter alia drawing on Page 1 of this thread.
Rule 3 specifies 8000 places (not 8500) of which 2500 would be reserved for French nationals.
Before pre-registration opened the available places in the 80/90/84 table summed 7600. I have speculated upthread on how the 'spare' 400 might be deployed and how ACP will manage their aim to allow 2500 French to register.
What actually happened in 2019 was that the places 'ran out' in March during the count down of those whose longest ride was a 300km in 2018. And then there was lots of Gallic sadness because loads of French riders seemed likely to be excluded from 'their' ride. So the ACP miraculously 'found' another 850 starts slots (started 30 minutes earlier on Sunday afternoon and added a start time on Monday dawn). Starts still ran out (by 10 Apr)) but were freed up in June by pre-registrants failure to register with at least 3 qualifying BRMs. And slots in early start waves, vacated by the 'fails' were also freed up (go and look at the 2019 threads on this)
I think @LWaB has suggested over 1000 so failed, and in 2019 those slots were made available to non-(pre-)registered aspirants, provided they had at least 3 qualifying BRMs to submit.
@Ivo said "The ACP over the past years tried to persuade people to start in the 84 hour group.
On Saturday [7 Jan], Faburel [ACP main man] stated quite clearly that he expects that everyone who qualifies can start but that those who didn't pre-qualify run the chance of missing their preferred starting slot. I understand this as if you haven't pre-qualified, then there's a chance that you won't get a 90h starting spot but have to do with 84h."
ACP will want the ride filled (ie registered) to capacity, with the expectation that 10% won't start built into that 'capacity' estimate. There's little scope for 84 waves (of 300?) to be shifted to 90 on Sunday evening. ACP did that last time and the 2023 design mimics the 2019 revision.
As a rider myself without a BRM last year (but with new hip, replacing the one that rode round without much complaint in August 2019) I shall be poised on 20 Jun with a BRM SR complete and homologated.
Registration closes midnight CEST 2 July: ACP then have plenty of time to sort things out with a settled figure of registered/starters.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Lightning Phil on 23 February, 2023, 02:24:32 pm
Qualifying events during March could be interesting as there is speculation that a new Beast From The East is likely.

Ignoring the click bait title you’ve quoted; the Met Office say for later March

“In this period, spells of rain or snow, are more likely than earlier in the month, with a low chance that some wintry episodes could be disruptive, though northwestern areas most likely to see the driest conditions. Winds could often be from a northerly or easterly direction, and temperatures are more likely to be below-average than above-average overall, but later in the month, colder air will be fighting against a strengthening sun.”

A low chance wintery episodes will be disruptive.   Lots of ifs and maybes and we all know the further out a forecast the less confident you can be in it.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Frank9755 on 23 February, 2023, 03:02:05 pm
Thanks for clarifying - I was assuming from the previous post that the old Willesden 600 was coming back!
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: mattc on 24 February, 2023, 09:06:01 pm
Thanks for clarifying - I was assuming from the previous post that the old Willesden 600 was coming back!
... and in March!!!  :o
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: GavinC on 25 February, 2023, 11:27:22 am
When I looked at the preregistration page earlier this morning there 600 odd places available for the 90hr start. When I logged back in at 11 to actually preregister myself, there were 811 places with start times available from 17.30.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Hot Flatus on 25 February, 2023, 03:16:45 pm
A close local friend, who I introduced to audax has pre-registered. I'm toying with the idea of joining him, just for something to try and aim for. Can't pre-reg until 200k slots come up though, but as I'd want an 84hr start I might be ok.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Lightning Phil on 25 February, 2023, 03:48:58 pm
When I looked at the preregistration page earlier this morning there 600 odd places available for the 90hr start. When I logged back in at 11 to actually preregister myself, there were 811 places with start times available from 17.30.

You’ll be riding your recumbent?
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: αdαmsκι on 25 February, 2023, 04:22:09 pm
I'm toying with the idea of joining him,
😱 Not something I thought I'd read
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Paul D on 25 February, 2023, 04:46:32 pm
A close local friend, who I introduced to audax has pre-registered. I'm toying with the idea of joining him, just for something to try and aim for. Can't pre-reg until 200k slots come up though, but as I'd want an 84hr start I might be ok.

Are yow going to Paris?
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Hot Flatus on 25 February, 2023, 05:31:23 pm
A close local friend, who I introduced to audax has pre-registered. I'm toying with the idea of joining him, just for something to try and aim for. Can't pre-reg until 200k slots come up though, but as I'd want an 84hr start I might be ok.

Are yow going to Paris?

Er yow gowing too?
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Hot Flatus on 25 February, 2023, 05:32:13 pm
I'm toying with the idea of joining him,
😱 Not something I thought I'd read

The annoying thing is that in order to do so I've actually got to complete some rides
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Paul D on 25 February, 2023, 05:53:11 pm
Er yow gowing too?

Of course!

The annoying thing is that in order to do so I've actually got to complete some rides

No 5 star luxury at Dolgellau this year then?
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Hot Flatus on 25 February, 2023, 05:57:16 pm
It wasnt even Dolgellau, it was Machynlleth  ;D ;D ;D :facepalm:
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 25 February, 2023, 09:49:56 pm
When I looked at the preregistration page earlier this morning there 600 odd places available for the 90hr start. When I logged back in at 11 to actually preregister myself, there were 811 places with start times available from 17.30.

Sneaky, I looked (90% academic interest only) with about 15 minutes till the 300s starting and there was 611 90h places and again early this evening when there was about 450 , I was a bit surprised there had been so few 300s but adding another 200 to the 90h available makes it a bit more respectable but still not the pent up demand I had expected, have we reached peak randonneur? Still a way to go, the ACP report after the 400 Wave said the pre-registrations for the first 3 waves down to 400s were line ball with 2019, perhaps the big rush will come with 200 longest BRM or later?

Still hope for the hopeful, keep riding and never give up! (maybe 85% academic interest now)
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: αdαmsκι on 25 February, 2023, 10:15:07 pm
The annoying thing is that in order to do so I've actually got to complete some rides

Good luck with that
🤣
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ajax Bay on 26 February, 2023, 12:06:16 pm
A close local friend, who I introduced to audax has pre-registered. I'm toying with the idea of joining him, just for something to try and aim for. Can't pre-reg until 200k slots come up though, but as I'd want an 84hr start I might be ok.
At least you have a 200, @HF
As at 'now' (midday Sunday) looks like they won't be able to 'give away' the Monday starts so will surely be OK: how many with 'only' a 200 will want to start then? Maybe the don't like riding-through-the-(first)nighters'.
I reckon I'm likely to end up there as well, but not till June.
Date    Time limit    Remaining places
20/08    80h00    134
20/08    90h00    421
21/08    84h00    835
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Hot Flatus on 26 February, 2023, 12:30:39 pm
Yes, I'd noticed that too. I would expect that most pre-reggers would pre-reg immediately so I'm hopeful that there are plenty of 84h slots available in a fortnight.

If I manage to qualify, and it is a big if, there's no way I'd want anything other than a morning start. I hated everything about the 90h start in 07, from the hours of hanging around, the crowds, the unbelievably shit riding skills of plenty of entrants.I don't really want the "event" side of it anyway, although in fairness there was no 'event' in 07. The deluge put paid to that. Don't care about food running out at controls because I will try and avoid it anyway. Overcooked green beans and watery mashed potato wasn't very appetising after hours of cold and rain.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: TOBY on 26 February, 2023, 01:12:34 pm
... Overcooked green beans and watery mashed potato wasn't very appetising after hours of cold and rain.

That's what she said
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Hot Flatus on 26 February, 2023, 08:20:40 pm
Turns out I can't pre-register as neither of the 200s I did last year was a BRM  ;D
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 26 February, 2023, 09:33:14 pm
@AB & @HF, Looks like we are in luck though, the way the 84h places are (not) flying off the shelf would suggest there will still be some when normal registration starts on 27 May, unfortunately still requires a BRM SR in the next few months unless ACP offers a special deal to get ride of them. The other good news is that we still have almost 6 months to train up for the 1200, bad news is we might have 6 hours less than ideal. The 300 longest BRM pre-reg looks a good deal less than 2019, wonder if 200s will be same?
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Von Broad on 26 February, 2023, 09:47:29 pm
unfortunately still requires a BRM SR in the next few months unless ACP offers a special deal to get ride of them.

 :D

That would be so bizarrely hilarious - and probably the first strong indication that Western Civilisation is indeed coming to an end!!!
Wonder what would be in the 'special deal'?
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 26 February, 2023, 09:55:12 pm
Wonder what would be in the 'special deal'?

The very least would have to include a luxury sleepover in the sheep pens on Sunday night and first go at the best grass for breakfast
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Tom on 26 February, 2023, 10:13:59 pm
Apologies for asking what is definitely a stupid question, but is the only disadvantage of the 84h group the fact that you have less time to complete it? Or are there other, more nuanced downsides?
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 27 February, 2023, 12:09:41 am
Apologies for asking what is definitely a stupid question, but is the only disadvantage of the 84h group the fact that you have less time to complete it? Or are there other, more nuanced downsides?

Some informed & experienced views here https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=110863.0 (from 2019)

So, advantages

Morning (early) start just like most of the brevets you currently do and will do in the qualifiers
Generally 4 days / 3 nights cf 90h with 4 nights / 3+ days
Well behind bulge so less delay for controls, food, beds etc

and disadvantages

6 hours less
No public transport that will get you to the start on time so private transport needed or accommodation within riding distance of start
Control closings tighter especially outbound & tighter than what you are used to on normal brevets, unless you are faster you have no time to waste (or enjoy it?), less rider crowds at controls moderate this somewhat, you might get through controls quicker
Volunteers tired after dealing with 7,000 riders previous day(s), last day especially some controls may run out of food and might seem to be wishing it was over
No cheering crowds at start and cheering public on road side throughout has got bored and gone home
Did I mention 6 hours less?

While Time Limit is self selecting and faster people will tend towards shorter limits the 2019 success rates are interesting (but not really statistically significant), 80h 83%, 84h 70%, 90h 64%
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ivo on 27 February, 2023, 06:09:24 am
One important point often overlooked by 84 hour fans is the body clock. Do you function at 5am or not. That's different from person to person.
The general societal norm for ages has been that 'everyone' will function early in the morning. The reality is that there's a significant proportion of the population who don't. If you belong to this group, don't use the 84 hour group. You'll be very unhappy at the start hour and barely functioning. In contrast, if you're done and dusted by 22h and can barely move, then the 84hour group is your group.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: frillipippi on 27 February, 2023, 07:09:54 am
Another 84h advantage I noticed is that you'll overtake (slow, probably out of time) riders while nobody overtakes you because you started last and there's nobody behind you. It makes you feel very fast, even if the rational part of you knows the reason why it's happening. This boosts your morale!
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: marcusjb on 27 February, 2023, 03:51:28 pm
The comeback apparently starts here. I'd ruled out PBP number 4 for this year, but my wife has convinced that I should give it a go.

No pre-reg, no real cycling fitness; if nothing else, it's something to motivate me back onto bikes!

Who knows if I'll get a place, even if I can do the SR; but I'll give it a shot.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Deano on 27 February, 2023, 04:21:55 pm
(https://farm6.staticflickr.com/5746/20174418363_06edf04d7a_z.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/wJKaHn)

Lest we forget.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: marcusjb on 27 February, 2023, 04:43:47 pm
Wet old finish that one; especially having dragged/encouraged/cajoled/shouted at a very tired Wilkyboy through the closing stages.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Lightning Phil on 27 February, 2023, 05:25:11 pm
Best of luck with your comeback campaign
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Diesel on 27 February, 2023, 05:36:39 pm
Can I add a happier one!

(https://ridewithgps.com/photos/5979332/large.jpg)

20/8/19 - 0643 - Sizun

Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Tom on 27 February, 2023, 07:07:21 pm
Thanks for all the 84hr replies. Since I'm very much relying on crumbs from the pre qualifiers table, 84hr seems most likely. Years of shift work and, more specifically, UK time trialling mean I'm quite well prepped for an early start and a fair bit of bikepacking means i don't totally object to spending a night under a hedge beforehand if that's what it takes. And since I'm pretty antisocial on the whole, quietish roads and controls sound good to me!
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ivo on 27 February, 2023, 07:53:24 pm
Thanks for all the 84hr replies. Since I'm very much relying on crumbs from the pre qualifiers table, 84hr seems most likely. Years of shift work and, more specifically, UK time trialling mean I'm quite well prepped for an early start and a fair bit of bikepacking means i don't totally object to spending a night under a hedge beforehand if that's what it takes. And since I'm pretty antisocial on the whole, quietish roads and controls sound good to me!

A tent on the campsite then will be luxury for you ;) (The campsite is 5km away from the start)
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Tom on 27 February, 2023, 07:59:13 pm
Perfect 👍👍
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ivo on 27 February, 2023, 09:07:05 pm
Perfect 👍👍

Make sure you book early, the place is quite packed just before and after PBP.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 28 February, 2023, 03:17:12 am
From GavinC's observation above and a chart today (on PBP FB) of Pre-Registrations after the first days of the 300 wave it looks like ACP dropped 200 of their up the jersey sleeve extra 400 places on the 90h group before the 300s started.

Each of the G - U groups got 15 extra places taking G - L to 365 each and M - U to 285. All the extra in G - S got snapped up leaving only T (52) & U (203) available places. Don't know if F got any more but currently seems to have 95 left (of 270?). Numbers are a little unclear +/-, must be some other under the counter stock not visible in the pre-registration system, can't quite reconcile it with the charts & announcements.

Another chart quotes 6,558 pre-registrations as at 27/02 with 1,560 being French (24%), 940 below their reserved places of 2,500. The French proportion is climbing a little as the pre-registration progresses. The non-French are therefore about 5,000 thus still 500 below their presumed limit?

Places are declining daily by 20-40 and the French non-FFCT 300 group next Saturday might be more than previous. I would expect another at least 200 up the jersey sleeve places will have to be released for the start of the 200s else they won't have anything to pick from. After that it will be up to how ACP handle the French / non-French quotas and if they want to continue to encourage people into the 84h group which is still not pulling its weight (still 830 available, not even 50% of the initial allocation yet taken while 80 & 90h groups are more than 90% taken up)

After that its Registrations (for non pre-registered people) from 27 May (if any places available) then cancelled pre-registrations on 20 June where riders have not entered at least 3 of their qualification brevets and then any (possible) release of cancelled places / times.

I should be riding.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ajax Bay on 28 February, 2023, 10:12:18 am
@AB & @HF, Looks like we are in luck though, the way the 84h places are (not) flying off the shelf would suggest there will still be some when normal registration starts on 27 May, unfortunately still requires a BRM SR in the next few months unless ACP offers a special deal to get ride of them. The other good news is that we still have almost 6 months to train up for the 1200, bad news is we might have 6 hours less than ideal. The 300 longest BRM pre-reg looks a good deal less than 2019, wonder if 200s will be same?
Add Marcus to that list, it seems.
There's nothing "unfortunate" about requiring a BRM SR (see rulz thread for pedants pointing at that this is not actually the criterion). Who will not enjoy the audacious challenge of an SR at least 3/4 completed by (say) 4 Jun? All those rides will be fun in themselves. I completed Will's Airmail a fortnight ago and plan to ride a BRM of increasing length each month.
I stopped at Dreux last time for a great shower and a few hours kip, to arrive in daylight on the courtyard cobbles (and not disturbing Huttopia cabane before breakfast).
Starting Monday early gives one till Thursday afternoon - very civilised. And there'll be some great trains to at least Fougères (292km). From Loudéac (unless you don't like riding in the dark) (435km) we'll start catching the longer sleeping faster riding chapter who started in the M-U waves. ACP set 'closing times' on the way out for Monday starters based on 16kph which requires (unenforced) arrival at Brest in 38 hours.
Waves (letters guessed):
Sunday 4:00 and 5:00 pm ==> five 80-hour waves (A-E)
            5:15 pm ==> 90-hour wave for specials (F)
            5:30 to 9:00 pm ==> fifteen 90-hour waves (G-U)
Monday 4:50 am ==> 84-hour wave for special cycles (V)
            5:00 to 6:00 am ==> five 84-hour waves (W-AA)
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: David H on 28 February, 2023, 03:15:27 pm
Having broken my collarbone coming off our tandem on Saterday, I think the odds are getting longer. >:(

Metal plate installed on right collarbone last Thursday so odds are improving
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: L CC on 01 March, 2023, 06:40:52 am
I'm dithering. I cancelled my holiday with work and had pretty much accepted that it wasn't going to happen but I have now got enough bend in my new knee to ride a bike. I managed a whole 8 minutes yesterday.
I'll be 5 months post-op by the time the qualification window closes. Physio have told me that I can't damage the prosthesis with over use, it will 'just' hurt. This might be a bad thing to say to me. I wasn't specific in what I meant by using it a lot..
My first PBP in 2011 I had a 21:30 start so I'm not bothered about a 'good' start time. Mr Smith is definitely not interested so I will would be riding solo and my pace is not what it once was. I only have a 200 from last year.

I think it's still unlikely. Unlikely enough to not be worth paying a deposit this Saturday.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 01 March, 2023, 09:10:06 am
I'm dithering. I cancelled my holiday with work and had pretty much accepted that it wasn't going to happen but I have now got enough bend in my new knee to ride a bike. I managed a whole 8 minutes yesterday.
....
I think it's still unlikely. Unlikely enough to not be worth paying a deposit this Saturday.

You have another week to practise the dithering and test out the knee as the 200km longest BRM pre-reg starts 11/March (noon Paris/1100 UK). Of course pre-reg stays open until 27/May (when registration starts) or places fill up so if 84h is your thing you can sit it out for a while longer, keep a watch on the places counter. Complication might be if ACP close it to non-French when they reach their presumed limit (5500) which has 500 places to go yet. A 200 longest BRM wave will likely fill it if the same number as the 300 wave
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ajax Bay on 01 March, 2023, 04:59:45 pm
I think it's still unlikely. Unlikely enough to not be worth paying a deposit this Saturday.
Join we 20 June hopefuls. You'll have either completed 200 300 400 or you won't, and know whether both knees can do the business in the timeframe required.
Last year, four months after a THR, I managed an almost 200. You will be rehabbing superbly if you can manage a 400 in that many months, though it will also depend on how excellent your pre-hab was. If I had one piece of advice for riders heading for a THR/TKR it's do do as much pre-hab as your degenerating condition allows, before the op.
I drew on this advice to inform my rehab: https://trainright.com/hip-replacement-training-plan-returning-to-cycling-and-sport-after-total-hip-arthroplasty/
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Tom on 01 March, 2023, 07:13:25 pm
On a tangential note, how does pbp compare to lel in terms of the terrain? I was blithely assuming that 84hr would be quite doable until I remembered that's exactly how long (almost to the minute) it took me to complete lel in 2009, and I was a mess. I should be fitter (if 14 years older) than I was in 2009 and I know pbp is 200km shorter, but that still makes 84hrs look slightly tougher than I'd allowed myself to anticipate.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Rod Marton on 01 March, 2023, 08:13:53 pm
On a tangential note, how does pbp compare to lel in terms of the terrain? I was blithely assuming that 84hr would be quite doable until I remembered that's exactly how long (almost to the minute) it took me to complete lel in 2009, and I was a mess. I should be fitter (if 14 years older) than I was in 2009 and I know pbp is 200km shorter, but that still makes 84hrs look slightly tougher than I'd allowed myself to anticipate.
Flatter. Actually there is quite a lot of climbing, but it's not the sort of climbing that you notice. The Paris end is mostly flat, but with several short sharp ridges to climb over. The central part contains lots of long gradual ascents and long gradual descents. The western end is more lumpy, but lumpy in a southern England way rather than in a Pennine way.

Probably in terms of hilliness the stretch between Loudeac and Carhaix is most difficult, though personally I have found the sharp climbs coming back into Paris hardest. At that point you have 1150km in your legs.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 01 March, 2023, 08:22:02 pm
The 84hr time limits are asymmetric = quite tight on the way out and more relaxed on the return, particularly the last 300km.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: marcusjb on 01 March, 2023, 08:49:10 pm
So I have this 100% correct (because the AUK website says something different), it is June 20th that is the critical day for those of us who can't pre-register right? Or is it May 27th? Or some other random interpretation?*

84 hour start wouldn't overly worry me; 2 of my 3 PBPs have been under that (the other was a rather relaxed affair with hotels and restaurant meals). The tighter time out to Brest sits well with the whole race out, tour back thing.

But just sanity check me that it is the 20th June and not what it says on the AUK site (2 weeks after the 200km pre-reg).

Can I add a happier one!

(https://ridewithgps.com/photos/5979332/large.jpg)

20/8/19 - 0643 - Sizun



It's always a party in Sizun! I saw the route only goes there once this time - which is, frankly, a travesty...still, there's always Villaines-la-Juhel for a good party.

*if any capacity left. I'm just going to work on the assumption that anyone who manages the qualification has always been able to get a place in the past.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: grams on 01 March, 2023, 08:58:40 pm
The claim on the AUK website doesn’t appear anywhere on the PBP website, and all of the other dates do.

On May 27th registration opens to everyone but at that point there may be nothing left. Maybe they still won’t have shifted all of those 84 hour places.

On June 20th unconverted preregistrations will be “cancelled”. With luck they’ll be resold to anyone who wants one, but they haven’t explicitly stated this.

It’s also possible to ask for a refund up until June 25th, so perhaps those places will be resold too.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: marcusjb on 01 March, 2023, 09:02:53 pm
Cool - so there's probably a bit of watch carefully around May 27th. And then hope for the best on June 20th.

If it doesn't work out, already forming up a plan for a spot of light touring now the time is booked off work.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ajax Bay on 02 March, 2023, 12:08:53 pm
So I have this 100% correct (because the AUK website says something different), it is June 20th that is the critical day for those of us who can't pre-register right? Or is it May 27th? Or some other random interpretation?*

But just sanity check me that it is the 20th June and not what it says on the AUK site (2 weeks after the 200km pre-reg).
I have rehashed the text on the Audax UK webpage [ https://www.audax.uk/about-audax/event-types/paris-brest-paris-pbp/ ]

Entry Process for 2023
The process for entering PBP will begin in January 2023 when 'register your interest' opens. You have to make a partial payment at this stage and choose a start time. 'Registering your interest' aka pre-registration is done in stages thus:
•   Pre-registration (for 7600 start slots) opens earlier for anybody who has ridden a BRM event the previous season (Nov 21 – Oct 22) on the following schedule:
o   14 Jan: 1000km or more (LRM)
o   28 Jan: 600km
o   11 Feb: 400km
o   25 Feb: 300km
o   11 Mar: 200km
o   25 Mar: open to all (NB likely there will be zero pre-registration slots left)
•   ACP PBP pre-registration/registration page https://myaccount.audax-club-parisien.com/?lang=en (https://myaccount.audax-club-parisien.com/?lang=en)
•   27 May: Registration proper opens.
To allow actual registration you must qualify by riding 200k, 300k, 400k and 600k BRM events (a longer ride may be substituted for any of these). You will have to enter the homologation number (retrieved from the Audax UK results section https://www.audax.uk/results/ (https://www.audax.uk/results/)) for each qualifier and entry fee payment is made (reduced by any pre-registration fee already paid).
•   27 May: Registration proper opens and can only be achieved with at least 3 ACP BRM homologation numbers, demonstrating completion of at least three of the four qualifying rides.
•   20 Jun: Any pre-registration (ie in Jan-Mar) which has not been converted into a registration is cancelled (in 2019 there were many hundreds) and the pre-registration deposit is lost.
•   2 Jul: Registration must be complete with all four BRM homologation numbers entered (ie if you entered only 3 initially you need to return to the registration site /my account and entering the final one), or registration/entry will be cancelled, with no fee refund.
•   August: Ride
Accurate detail at the official PBP registration webpage: https://www.paris-brest-paris.org/en/how-to-register/ (https://www.paris-brest-paris.org/en/how-to-register/)

(@2 Mar and NB 2500 places circumscribed for French nationals)
Date    Délai    Places restantes
20/08    80h00    113
20/08    90h00    325
21/08    84h00    824
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 02 March, 2023, 08:45:52 pm
But this is the bit which does not seem to exist on the PBP site?

o   25 Mar: open to all
 
And with regard to “ 2500 places circumscribed for French nationals” , with an overall limit of 8,000, (in the rules but can be changed up to August) this means the non-French limit is 5,500. As at 27/Feb there were 6,558 pre- registrations (approx. hundred since) with 1,560 French therefore 4,998 non-French, another 502 non-French pre-registrations would reach the limit, what happens then is up to ACP.  Of course their legitimate desire is for a large French participation so the quotas may come and go as pre-registration progresses, pre-regs get cancelled and final registration progresses. 2019 had 1573* French of 6,673 full registrations as at the 18/Aug and of those 256 (38 French) DNS. (*Lowest French participation for 44 years, since 1975)
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Wycombewheeler on 03 March, 2023, 08:21:58 am
I suspect the reservation for French riders will exist for some time after the open to all pre reg date and if it doesn't get filled then they may remove it.

Last year there was a big outcry when French riders who do not do BRM rides at any other time were shocked to find they couldn't enter. ACP have taken steps to prevent that this time.

If riders who have had a month to pre register but didn't complain when places are reallocated to meet obvious demand, I would expect a lot of gallic shrugging from ACP, as they had been given every chance.

In reality I would not count on those places being released, I think there will be enough demand to fill them. So really we are talking about the 502 remaining places for anyone not already pre registered, and then hoping that pre registrations do not get converted to actual entries and become available. Not forgetting earlier statements that pre reg quotas are up this time, but ACP may be overselling the event expecting a certain % of non completions.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ivo on 03 March, 2023, 09:46:17 am
I suspect the reservation for French riders will exist for some time after the open to all pre reg date and if it doesn't get filled then they may remove it.

Last year there was a big outcry when French riders who do not do BRM rides at any other time were shocked to find they couldn't enter. ACP have taken steps to prevent that this time.

If riders who have had a month to pre register but didn't complain when places are reallocated to meet obvious demand, I would expect a lot of gallic shrugging from ACP, as they had been given every chance.

In reality I would not count on those places being released, I think there will be enough demand to fill them. So really we are talking about the 502 remaining places for anyone not already pre registered, and then hoping that pre registrations do not get converted to actual entries and become available. Not forgetting earlier statements that pre reg quotas are up this time, but ACP may be overselling the event expecting a certain % of non completions.

There are about 50 600k BRM's in France this year. So the cap will not so much be the 2500 slots for French riders but the capacity of the 600k BRM's.
I see the reserved place for French riders mainly as a move from ACP to pacify French cycling clubs.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 03 March, 2023, 08:49:51 pm
74 French 600s between today and end of June so they should be able to fit everyone in
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ivo on 03 March, 2023, 10:58:59 pm
74 French 600s between today and end of June so they should be able to fit everyone in

The FFCT calender only has about 50
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 03 March, 2023, 11:17:47 pm
74 French 600s between today and end of June so they should be able to fit everyone in

The FFCT calender only has about 50

The one on the ACP site seems to have more although does not show past ones (Nov 2022 - today), the 74 are all crammed into May & June

https://www.audax-club-parisien.com/en/our-organizations/brm-world/#calendar

The pdf calendar there is 2022 so not much use, nor have they updated the results for 2021-2022 year
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ivo on 04 March, 2023, 10:39:08 am
So there certainly is a communication/publicity issue with French BRM's.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: mzjo on 05 March, 2023, 06:06:58 pm
74 French 600s between today and end of June so they should be able to fit everyone in

The FFCT calender only has about 50

The one on the ACP site seems to have more although does not show past ones (Nov 2022 - today), the 74 are all crammed into May & June

https://www.audax-club-parisien.com/en/our-organizations/brm-world/#calendar

The pdf calendar there is 2022 so not much use, nor have they updated the results for 2021-2022 year

That the calendars have not been updated is a bit distressing but I would never put too much faith in the FFCT "Où irons-nous?", some clubs don't have their BRM's clearly indicated or under the right heading and some BRM's are organised by clubs that are not in (or not actively in) the FFCT.
On the other hand all or the vast majority organised in may and june is about right, France is on holiday as far as organising is concerned july and august and who wants to ride 600s in the autumn (in central France the season starts february- march with the 200s and finishes in june with the 600s - and that's it.)
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Wycombewheeler on 06 March, 2023, 10:18:34 am


There are about 50 600k BRM's in France this year. So the cap will not so much be the 2500 slots for French riders but the capacity of the 600k BRM's.
I see the reserved place for French riders mainly as a move from ACP to pacify French cycling clubs.

50 events of 50 riders -> 2500, and there is nothing stopping those French riders travelling to neighbouring countries for the qualifiers either.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: grams on 06 March, 2023, 12:01:19 pm
Can anyone with access report which 90 hours slots are left? I hope they’re not all special.

Thanks!
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: CrazyEnglishTriathlete on 06 March, 2023, 12:37:11 pm
Apologies for asking what is definitely a stupid question, but is the only disadvantage of the 84h group the fact that you have less time to complete it? Or are there other, more nuanced downsides?

Some informed & experienced views here https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=110863.0 (from 2019)

So, advantages

Morning (early) start just like most of the brevets you currently do and will do in the qualifiers
Generally 4 days / 3 nights cf 90h with 4 nights / 3+ days
Well behind bulge so less delay for controls, food, beds etc

and disadvantages

6 hours less
No public transport that will get you to the start on time so private transport needed or accommodation within riding distance of start
Control closings tighter especially outbound & tighter than what you are used to on normal brevets, unless you are faster you have no time to waste (or enjoy it?), less rider crowds at controls moderate this somewhat, you might get through controls quicker
Volunteers tired after dealing with 7,000 riders previous day(s), last day especially some controls may run out of food and might seem to be wishing it was over
No cheering crowds at start and cheering public on road side throughout has got bored and gone home
Did I mention 6 hours less?

While Time Limit is self selecting and faster people will tend towards shorter limits the 2019 success rates are interesting (but not really statistically significant), 80h 83%, 84h 70%, 90h 64%

My observation, reinforced from having run catering at controls on LEL in 2013 and 2017 is that the 84 hour group will catch up with the back of the bulge - the ones who have had mechnicals, injuries, or are, anxious, stressed, or serial-faffers.  For these reasons they demand more time and attention of the volunteers, and they aren't much use on the road as they are 6+ hours slower than the riders in the 84-hour group.  If you are a solitary self-sufficient rider, then that may not be so much of a distraction, but if you are (like me) one that benefits mentally and physically from riding in a sensible group then you might find being at the back tougher.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: grecko on 06 March, 2023, 04:55:28 pm
Can anyone with access report which 90 hours slots are left? I hope they’re not all special.

Thanks!

The website reports the U group (21:00) as the only non special available 90h group with 175 slots left (curl --request POST --url https://inscription.paris-brest-paris.org/controleur/pbp/json_pbp.php --data '{"search":"Depart","special":false,"depart":"2"}' for people that are not afraid of the command lines).

Not that the maximum slots of each groups differs for all group and that the PBP board might redistribute unused slots to existing 90h groups (that has happened earlier this year). (365 for G to J, 370 for K, 365 for L, 285 for M to S, 300 for T and 330 for U)
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 06 March, 2023, 09:21:37 pm
Can anyone with access report which 90 hours slots are left? I hope they’re not all special.

Thanks!

In addition to the 175 in Group U reported by grecko above the organisers might release extra places this Saturday at the start of the 200 longest brevet group pre-registration. For the start of the 300 group they added 15 places to each of the 15 90h start waves, they of course did not last long so be there right on time, noon Paris or 1100 UK.

Additional ACP analysis after the first week of the 300 brevet group pre-registration

https://www.paris-brest-paris.org/vague-des-brm-300/
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Lightning Phil on 06 March, 2023, 09:51:53 pm
For the 84 hour departs; it’s only 5am that is full.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 06 March, 2023, 10:43:09 pm

I have rehashed the text on the Audax UK webpage [ https://www.audax.uk/about-audax/event-types/paris-brest-paris-pbp/ ]

Entry Process for 2023
......
o   25 Mar: open to all (NB likely there will be zero pre-registration slots left)


I could not find the 25 Mar activity on the PBP site BUT Audax UK might be right?

Highlighting the increasing proportion of French vs non-French as the pre-registration progresses in the ACP analysis (above) of the 300 brevet pre-reg wave  Alain Collongues (ACP) says

"It is likely that this trend will continue with the opening of pre-registration to holders of a BRM 200, and then to everyone, even without a BRM in 2022" (my bolding)

Does anyone know if there will be a "anyone pre-reg" from 25 March (notwithstanding there might only be 84h places left and only for French nationals given that the non-French quota could be full)

If pre-reg was open to all and by some miracle there were 90h places I might be tempted to pre-reg even without much confidence of qualifying let alone getting to the start, might consider it a donation to the PBP cause and a forlorn hope motivator.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Tom on 07 March, 2023, 04:07:01 pm

My observation, reinforced from having run catering at controls on LEL in 2013 and 2017 is that the 84 hour group will catch up with the back of the bulge - the ones who have had mechnicals, injuries, or are, anxious, stressed, or serial-faffers.  For these reasons they demand more time and attention of the volunteers, and they aren't much use on the road as they are 6+ hours slower than the riders in the 84-hour group.  If you are a solitary self-sufficient rider, then that may not be so much of a distraction, but if you are (like me) one that benefits mentally and physically from riding in a sensible group then you might find being at the back tougher.

Thanks CEL. I'm very much in the solitary mould, so the idea of having a few stragglers to slowly catch up with (or not) suits me fine.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Bianchi Boy on 10 March, 2023, 06:58:38 pm
I think my adds have increased greatly since I invested in Zwift and a smart trainer. I am hitting my time objective most weeks and on the smart trainer I tend to ride at a higher intensity.

Sent from my XQ-BT52 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Hofnar on 10 March, 2023, 09:34:39 pm


There are about 50 600k BRM's in France this year. So the cap will not so much be the 2500 slots for French riders but the capacity of the 600k BRM's.
I see the reserved place for French riders mainly as a move from ACP to pacify French cycling clubs.

50 events of 50 riders -> 2500, and there is nothing stopping those French riders travelling to neighbouring countries for the qualifiers either.

But thats the average my 600 (in France) in 2019 we where two at the start
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Hofnar on 11 March, 2023, 11:10:38 am
IMPORTANT rules updated

appologies for the big print but it seems to interest of many looking at previous post.

Both English and french versions have been updated:


Main changes:
Was mentionned here but absent in official rules up till a few days ago for those have not done a BRM(but there might be no spots left by then)
Pre entry dates
200 km   March 11, 2023
none   March 25, 2023

Pre-registrations will be cancelled if remained unpaid for three clear days and your departure time will be released on June 10, 2023 if the registration was not initiated (at least three BRM must be indicated in the registration form

No mention if swapping start times will and if so when will be possible to be followed up...
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Hofnar on 11 March, 2023, 11:18:19 am
For the curious ones spots left just before entry opened for the 200K ones midday today:

 80 H 115

 90 H 374

 84H 958

90H selling fast for now
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: dod on 11 March, 2023, 11:23:18 am
The counts on the front page don't quite match up to what is available when you get to select a start time, as those are now down to 15 places at 20:45 and 141 at 21:00. Everything else for 90h has 0 places available.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Frank9755 on 11 March, 2023, 11:30:39 am
There were around 100 tandem places left when I registered 10 minutes ago.  May explain some of the gap
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: iomadh on 11 March, 2023, 11:37:07 am
Registered bang on 11:00 UK time - shortly before 11 the numbers jumped up a bit (250~ to 435 for the 90hr) -  Got a slot at 90hr with a 18:30 start.  There were spaces at various times from 17:30 (1s and 2s) .   I'm very happy because I was worried that 84 hours would be a struggle for me and wouldn't like a 21:00 start either.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: grams on 11 March, 2023, 01:28:07 pm
I jumped on at 10:59 and got a 17:30 slot. There appeared to be 10 extra in each slot from my brief glimpse of it.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: marcusjb on 11 March, 2023, 02:07:57 pm
IMPORTANT rules updated

appologies for the big print but it seems to interest of many looking at previous post.

Both English and french versions have been updated:


Main changes:
Was mentionned here but absent in official rules up till a few days ago for those have not done a BRM(but there might be no spots left by then)
Pre entry dates
200 km   March 11, 2023
none   March 25, 2023

Pre-registrations will be cancelled if remained unpaid for three clear days and your departure time will be released on June 10, 2023 if the registration was not initiated (at least three BRM must be indicated in the registration form

No mention if swapping start times will and if so when will be possible to be followed up...

Thanks Hofnar - I'll be on holiday on 25th, but will make sure I am armed with enough internet access to give this a shot.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ajax Bay on 11 March, 2023, 04:30:06 pm
For the curious ones spots left just before entry opened for the 200K ones midday today:
 80 H 115
 90 H 374
 84H 958
@1726CET (so 6 hours worth of 200s) - am surprised so slow (90H)
Date    Time limit    Remaining places
20/08    80h00    88
20/08    90h00    196
21/08    84h00    919
Most of those Monday starts are sure to be there a fortnight hence.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Lightning Phil on 11 March, 2023, 06:08:14 pm
The 90 hour 18:15 and 19:15 starts; both have one space still available.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 11 March, 2023, 08:07:29 pm
ACP appears to have added about 50 places to 80h, 200 to 90h and a pointless 170 to 84h at the start of the 200 longest brevet pre-reg. With a few minutes to noon the 80 & 90h were 95% full but 84h not even up to 50% (actually was 49). Would appear the total made available exceeds the 8,000 now by some 100s

After the first half hour the frenzy had subsided and a surprising number still left, the 200 pre-reg seems to have only been a few hundred compared with 2,500 each for 1000/1200 & 600 waves. It had been suggested the casual / relaxed French had only banked a 200 or 300 as  “enough” to get them a “reserved” place but does not seem to have filtered down to the punters, maybe they will all have fingers poised on the 25th with a no BRM longest brevet, not a great pointer to their finishing the qualifying series?

So seems it will be on again for the no BRMs on 25 March, maybe more early slots added then, you would have to expect many of the 84h places will be moved to 90h otherwise they will never go?
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 11 March, 2023, 09:21:31 pm
rules updated

Both English and french versions have been updated:


Main changes:
Was mentionned here but absent in official rules up till a few days ago for those have not done a BRM(but there might be no spots left by then)
Pre entry dates
200 km   March 11, 2023
none   March 25, 2023

Pre-registrations will be cancelled if remained unpaid for three clear days and your departure time will be released on June 10, 2023 if the registration was not initiated (at least three BRM must be indicated in the registration form

No mention if swapping start times will and if so when will be possible to be followed up...

The pre-reg cancellation date of 10 June is 10 days earlier than the previous rules text, important for people to note but also good for later registrations which can start a little earlier.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Hofnar on 11 March, 2023, 09:48:05 pm
It had been suggested the casual / relaxed French had only banked a 200 or 300 as  “enough” to get them a “reserved” place but does not seem to have filtered down to the punters, maybe they will all have fingers poised on the 25th with a no BRM longest brevet, not a great pointer to their finishing the qualifying series?



There will be a second french 200 wave.

There is a special rule for the French only which opens entry a the date only for  on single federation namely FFCT those riding with a licence from one of the several other federations or affiliated to none have to wait an extra week I believe(was/is the same for all other waves).
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 11 March, 2023, 10:51:05 pm

There will be a second french 200 wave....... have to wait an extra week I believe(was/is the same for all other waves).

The non-FFCT deferred waves (based on the single day pre-reg one week after the single first day of the FFCT / non-French wave ) have generally been less than 10% of the previous week first waves except for the 300 which was about 12% (hard to tell exactly as FFCT and non-French can be in those numbers for that day too), maybe 200 & no BRM will be higher
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 12 March, 2023, 12:13:01 am
Currently 12 hours since 200 pre-reg start
(Groups full unless noted below)

80h Groups A - D (Full)
80h Group E - 81 places available

90h Group F (Specials & Tandem) - 94 Places available
90h Groups G - T (Full)
90h Group U (Bikes) - 74 places available

84h Group V (Specials ??) - 103 places available ! (was 17 taken of 50 available prior to 11/03)
84h Group W (Full)
84h Group X - 87 available
84h Group Y - 185 available
84h Group Z - 310 available
84h Group + - 227 available
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: john jackson on 12 March, 2023, 07:29:28 am
From PBP Facebook.
Paris-Brest-Paris Randonneur 2023: evolution of the regulation. Listening to participants, the leaders of Audax Club Parisien have adapted the contents of the regulation by allowing cycles that did not obtain BRM in 2022, to be able to register as soon as next March 25 (vs 27/05 before). Hoping to meet the expectations of all long-distance enthusiasts. FFVélo
  ·   ·
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Tom on 12 March, 2023, 12:04:28 pm
This is great news! At least those of us without a 2022 BRM should know definitively (subject to 2023 SR completion) whether or not we've got a place by the end of the month. Would have been a major drag to wait until June only to find it was full.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Hofnar on 12 March, 2023, 04:12:50 pm
This is great news! At least those of us without a 2022 BRM should know definitively (subject to 2023 SR completion) whether or not we've got a place by the end of the month. Would have been a major drag to wait until June only to find it was full.

asking on behalf of my clubmate again, if it's full on or before the 25th March will there definitely be more places released in June from those who have not completed 2 3 and 400k?

No official communication as far as  know.

In 2019 it was said their wouldn't be and that  the initial amount of places was taken lare to account for a certain % of non qualified.

In the end there where so many that didn't convert that last minute(and it was really a last minute decision according to inside sources) they released quite some spots).

Take into account that the pre entr amount was a lot lower in 2019(about half) so there where most likely more dreamers that entered. It also seems that this time round more people did a (very) long qualifier the year before. This means to think that non converted pre entries seem to be likely lower.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ajax Bay on 12 March, 2023, 05:17:20 pm
This is great news! At least those of us without a 2022 BRM should know definitively (subject to 2023 SR completion) whether or not we've got a place by the end of the month. Would have been a major drag to wait until June only to find it was full.
asking on behalf of my clubmate again, if it's full on or before the 25th March will there definitely be more places released in June from those who have not completed 2 3 and 400k?
Is anything "definite"? No, this is ACP and they're trying to manage supply and demand.
There will surely be 84H slots available on 25 Mar.
I think it is highly likely that 'undreds of pre-registrations will not be converted, for reasons including loss of enthusiasm, pre-registering 'cos it sounded like a good idea in February, not getting on/completing the 3 of 4 SR by 10 Jun, real life, logistics.

ACP will have aimed off a bit for that but I'd be amazed if those 'reserved' places were not offered up in part.
Having said all that, why not just pre-register on 25 March? Are you/your friend 'committed' or aren't you? There's an SR to schedule and ride: what's not to like (apart from sub-zero 6am March starts)?
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Flâneur on 12 March, 2023, 08:37:00 pm

Pre-registrations will be cancelled if remained unpaid for three clear days and your departure time will be released on June 10, 2023 if the registration was not initiated (at least three BRM must be indicated in the registration form


Given this apparent change in deadline for initiating registration, and the general lag in ACP homologation, it might make relying on late May/early June qualifiers somewhat risky?
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 12 March, 2023, 09:59:35 pm

Pre-registrations will be cancelled if remained unpaid for three clear days and your departure time will be released on June 10, 2023 if the registration was not initiated (at least three BRM must be indicated in the registration form


Seems to be a mixture of terms and 2 seperate events conflated here, cancellation of pre-registration is clear enough but “departure time released” clearly implies it is released so someone else can have it after 10 June?

The 25 March no BRM pre-registration is a bit of an empty offer if only 84h places are offered, (that are very difficult to get to the start for, except for local French riders), currently less than 40 non-special 90h places available. Perhaps the 25 March offer is a bit of a cynical way of getting the French reserved places filled? For us chancers might be better to wait till June for a possible 90h place rather 25 March for a logistically difficult 84h one. Either way just keep riding and get those qualifiers done.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ivo on 13 March, 2023, 06:15:02 am
The ACP got a lot of stick from French club officials due to the declining number of French riders. So they want to do everything to keep the French numbers up. Mind you, most of the controls are run by local clubs so the support of French club officials is very crucial for the running of PBP.
So yes, the date of 25th of march will be, in reality, only interesting for French riders not having a BRM 200 yet.
That the root cause of the 'French issue' is that hardly any French club organise BRM's in non-PBP years, that's an entirely different debate. But not organising your event as BRM because it's more pratical to you, as a former organiser, I do have my doubts if you're doing a good service to your riders then. It's important to have a good offer of BRM's in each country where there are PBP hopefuls, especially the PBP year and the year before.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ajax Bay on 13 March, 2023, 08:26:44 am
Pre-registrations will be cancelled if remained unpaid for three clear days and your departure time will be released on June 10, 2023 if the registration was not initiated (at least three BRM must be indicated in the registration form
Given this apparent change in deadline for initiating registration, and the general lag in ACP homologation, it might make relying on late May/early June qualifiers somewhat risky?
What is this "general lag in ACP homologations"? Do you know something others don't - at least as far as UK is concerned? Audax UK make strenuous efforts to get results turned from provisional to 'with homologations' swiftly and, so far in 2023 this has been achieved (as it was with a flourish in 2019). Full entry set at €190. https://www.paris-brest-paris.org/en/rules/
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: frillipippi on 13 March, 2023, 11:12:44 am
Numbers suggest that ACP have already done a little bit of overbooking (over-offering, to be precise): last Saturday, just before opening pre-reg to 200ers, the total number of available places raised of about three hundred from 7,800 to 8,100. It might also be that they just cleaned up their database from uncompleted pre-registrations or something similar, but considering what people with inner knowledge wrote in this thread about 2019, it seems to me that they're going with a little bit of over-offering, at the moment, to avoid the frantic (for them) re-opening in June.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Flâneur on 13 March, 2023, 12:24:53 pm
Given this apparent change in deadline for initiating registration, and the general lag in ACP homologation, it might make relying on late May/early June qualifiers somewhat risky?
What is this "general lag in ACP homologations"? Do you know something others don't - at least as far as UK is concerned? Audax UK make strenuous efforts to get results turned from provisional to 'with homologations' swiftly and, so far in 2023 this has been achieved (as it was with a flourish in 2019). Full entry set at €190. https://www.paris-brest-paris.org/en/rules/

I don't think it's controversial to suggest it takes longer for a BRM to be validated (up to and including communication of ACP homologation number) than a BR? For instance, as it stands today I have no idea what the homologation number of a BRM I did on 4th March is, and that's not a knock on the organiser, AUK or ACP, who I'm sure are all moving as quickly as possible. But equally, on a similar timetable later in the year, I could not rely on being able to use a BRM completed on 1st June to satisfy this updated "3 completed qualifiiers on the registration by 10th June" condition as it would require knowing the homologation number of the ride.

Edited to add:
The AUK BRM qualifying windows (below) appeared to take cognisance of the ACP cutoffs. So 400 qualifiers ceasing 10 days (to allow time for homologation?) before the ACP's previous registration commencement deadline of the 20th, and similarly 600 qualifiers to be completed by weekend of 24th June, a week before ACP registration final deadline of 2nd July. The ACP move appears to break the first of those, somewhat.

200k: Sat 7 Jan - Sun 30 Apr
300k: Sat 11 Mar - Sun 21 May
400k: Sun 9 Apr - Sat 10 Jun
600k: Sat 6 May - Sat 24 June
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Wycombewheeler on 13 March, 2023, 01:37:27 pm


I don't think it's controversial to suggest it takes longer for a BRM to be validated (up to and including communication of ACP homologation number) than a BR? For instance, as it stands today I have no idea what the homologation number of a BRM I did on 4th March is, and that's not a knock on the organiser, AUK or ACP, who I'm sure are all moving as quickly as possible. But equally, on a similar timetable later in the year, I could not rely on being able to use a BRM completed on 1st June to satisfy this updated "3 completed qualifiiers on the registration by 10th June" condition as it would require knowing the homologation number of the ride.

Edited to add:
The AUK BRM qualifying windows (below) appeared to take cognisance of the ACP cutoffs. So 400 qualifiers ceasing 10 days (to allow time for homologation?) before the ACP's previous registration commencement deadline of the 20th, and similarly 600 qualifiers to be completed by weekend of 24th June, a week before ACP registration final deadline of 2nd July. The ACP move appears to break the first of those, somewhat.

200k: Sat 7 Jan - Sun 30 Apr
300k: Sat 11 Mar - Sun 21 May
400k: Sun 9 Apr - Sat 10 Jun
600k: Sat 6 May - Sat 24 June

I think it takes about 10 days to get homogulation numbers back, based on my experience this season. Obviously longer for any events with postal finishes.

So I agree it would be unwise to be relying on a ride ridden after 1st of June as one of the first three rides to complete the registration process.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ajax Bay on 13 March, 2023, 04:14:15 pm
Given this apparent change in deadline for initiating registration, and the general lag in ACP homologation, it might make relying on late May/early June qualifiers somewhat risky?
What is this "general lag in ACP homologations"? Do you know something others don't - at least as far as UK is concerned? Audax UK make strenuous efforts to get results turned from provisional to 'with homologations' swiftly and, so far in 2023 this has been achieved (as it was with a flourish in 2019). Full entry set at €190. https://www.paris-brest-paris.org/en/rules/
Edited to add:
The AUK BRM qualifying windows (below) appeared to take cognisance of the ACP cutoffs. So 400 qualifiers ceasing 10 days (to allow time for homologation?) before the ACP's previous registration commencement deadline of the 20th, and similarly 600 qualifiers to be completed by weekend of 24th June, a week before ACP registration final deadline of 2nd July. The ACP move appears to break the first of those, somewhat.

200k: Sat 7 Jan - Sun 30 Apr
300k: Sat 11 Mar - Sun 21 May
400k: Sun 9 Apr - Sat 10 Jun
600k: Sat 6 May - Sat 24 June
Agree - if you're going for registration in June ab initio, have at least 3 done by end May. I know AudaxUK digs out blind to gat those last minute 600s homologated. Perhaps that laser focus might be applied to 400s in late May.
I can see all those 400s on 3 Jun being suddenly a lot less attractive, and A&S will be of PBP qualifying use only for those with a 600 already 'in the bag'.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ivo on 13 March, 2023, 07:57:03 pm
It's certainly possible to add BRM's after september. I know from experience.

Please keep in mind all that not only UK based riders are following, reading and commenting in this thread. Practices and habits do differ in many countries. We can certainly compare and see where it's going good and where it's going less good. We can identify issues, to learn from.
The huge difference in riders having 600+ events between France and abroad points towards an issue, an issue we can discuss here.
Riders going a long way across borders to find events is a signal. If these signals are neglected, the underlying problems aren't addressed. So critical comments are needed to improve audaxing in general (and not only AUK audaxing).
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: mzjo on 13 March, 2023, 09:28:25 pm
The ACP got a lot of stick from French club officials due to the declining number of French riders. So they want to do everything to keep the French numbers up. Mind you, most of the controls are run by local clubs so the support of French club officials is very crucial for the running of PBP.
So yes, the date of 25th of march will be, in reality, only interesting for French riders not having a BRM 200 yet.
That the root cause of the 'French issue' is that hardly any French club organise BRM's in non-PBP years, that's an entirely different debate. But not organising your event as BRM because it's more pratical to you, as a former organiser, I do have my doubts if you're doing a good service to your riders then. It's important to have a good offer of BRM's in each country where there are PBP hopefuls, especially the PBP year and the year before.

The problem is structural and demographic within the FFCT/FFVélo. PBP is part of our "patrimoine" (roughly translates as "inheritance"!) on which the FFCT claims ownership of the IP. But while clubs are keen enough to get a bit of kudos for being involved in the organisation (a matter of local politics) they don't actually have many riders still young enough or enthusiastic enough (at least in the France Profonde outside the big urban areas) to mount a decent participation. Result not much interest in riding BRMs (except perhaps 200s). Attracting young and enthusiastic riders is not easy once the average age goes over 70! (Witness my own club, rapidly becoming a club du Troisième Age rather than cyclotourisme). On this front my friends in UFOLEP clubs tell me that they are in a similar situation. With all that happening (or not happening perhaps) it is hardly surprising that clubs look for whatever leverage they can to try to present PBP as an outstanding french event when the truth may be more international but less patriotic. It's a bit like shouting "Cocorico!" when a french rider goes to the front of a TdF stage when we know full well that the eventual winner will be spanish or italian - or east european!
I think that 20 would be a good field for our local BRMs, less outside PBP years!
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 13 March, 2023, 09:52:20 pm
Quicker turnaround for BRM numbers is certainly possible, it is certainly automated at the ACP end, best I have seen is 3 hours and that was because we (including organiser) went to dinner after the ride rather than immediately processing the brevets, slackers.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ivo on 13 March, 2023, 09:54:16 pm
It'll be very interesting to see what happens with the various French clubs who banded together to offer a BRM series starting in 'the province' and finishing in Paris. If this is a success (I definitely hope so), it could be the start of more BRM events in France, starting outside the classic BRM strongholds. The organisers are also using Social Media to plug this series. A very good experiment, worthy of a good result.
In Italy (or better said, an italian organiser), started several years ago a special 600, from Munich to Ferrara. Now he easily attracts 250 riders for a 600. Thinking outside of the box can pay off.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Lightning Phil on 14 March, 2023, 08:57:09 am
I try and cover the finish for the times we expect riders to finish in. We let them know in advance these times.  A few fast riders may arrive before we man it. But most of the time we manage to collect everyone’s card at the finish.  I then try and process all the cards within a day before sending them off to the validators.  Then the biggest delay is often postal.  The homologation numbers do appear in the online results before the entrants cards come back to me, as organiser.

The third (400) event in my offered SR series runs mid May and I’d expect the homologation to be completed in plenty of time for the June 10th deadline.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Wycombewheeler on 14 March, 2023, 09:35:31 am
It'll be very interesting to see what happens with the various French clubs who banded together to offer a BRM series starting in 'the province' and finishing in Paris...
In Italy (or better said, an italian organiser), started several years ago a special 600, from Munich to Ferrara. Now he easily attracts 250 riders for a 600. Thinking outside of the box can pay off.
I've seen various organisations doing a "hell week" of an SR series in a week. I'd love to see an ISR series in a week, whether this would be a popular enough to get clubs of neighbouring countries to organise the events, possibly with bag drops between them, is another question.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: BerlinMatt on 14 March, 2023, 12:24:31 pm
The ARA Dresden are doing something like that this year.
https://www.ara-dresden.de/brevetwoche
Cutting it a bit fine for using as a pbp qualification but sounds like fun.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Dai P on 14 March, 2023, 02:54:49 pm
This is all a bit of a bugger.  A & S booked for 10 June, no way will that be validated on the same day to use in registration!  Changing plans is going to involve a lot of negotiation! Family commitments etc. if only they would stick to the original timetable.  Still, will have to find a way, not going to miss it!
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Wycombewheeler on 14 March, 2023, 03:46:15 pm
This is all a bit of a bugger.  A & S booked for 10 June, no way will that be validated on the same day to use in registration!  Changing plans is going to involve a lot of negotiation! Family commitments etc. if only they would stick to the original timetable.  Still, will have to find a way, not going to miss it!

there are a number of 600s before that, which will allow you to use A&S as the 4th qualifier, after you have completed registration.

shifty 600
Benjamin Allens summer outing
BCM
fenland friends
Gospel Pass
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: grecko on 14 March, 2023, 03:50:40 pm
Numbers suggest that ACP have already done a little bit of overbooking (over-offering, to be precise): last Saturday, just before opening pre-reg to 200ers, the total number of available places raised of about three hundred from 7,800 to 8,100. It might also be that they just cleaned up their database from uncompleted pre-registrations or something similar, but considering what people with inner knowledge wrote in this thread about 2019, it seems to me that they're going with a little bit of over-offering, at the moment, to avoid the frantic (for them) re-opening in June.

The total number of places as of now is 8300.
Only 3 available in the non-special 90h groups, 71 for 80h and 784 for 84h.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Tomsk on 14 March, 2023, 05:16:04 pm
This is all a bit of a bugger.  A & S booked for 10 June, no way will that be validated on the same day to use in registration!  Changing plans is going to involve a lot of negotiation! Family commitments etc. if only they would stick to the original timetable.  Still, will have to find a way, not going to miss it!

there are a number of 600s before that, which will allow you to use A&S as the 4th qualifier, after you have completed registration.

shifty 600
Benjamin Allens summer outing
BCM
fenland friends
Gospel Pass

No plans to cap entry number for Fenland Friends. (Or any of our ACME qualifiers.)
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ivo on 14 March, 2023, 07:02:35 pm
It'll be very interesting to see what happens with the various French clubs who banded together to offer a BRM series starting in 'the province' and finishing in Paris...
In Italy (or better said, an italian organiser), started several years ago a special 600, from Munich to Ferrara. Now he easily attracts 250 riders for a 600. Thinking outside of the box can pay off.
I've seen various organisations doing a "hell week" of an SR series in a week. I'd love to see an ISR series in a week, whether this would be a popular enough to get clubs of neighbouring countries to organise the events, possibly with bag drops between them, is another question.

You, and a few others, have PM
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: iomadh on 14 March, 2023, 08:00:58 pm

No plans to cap entry number for Fenland Friends. (Or any of our ACME qualifiers.)

Good to know if my planned 400 (Border Nights) goes wrong for some reason (last year I got covid).
I'd thought I'd have the 600 on the 3rd June as backup but that now seems like it is too late to consider
There are precious few 400s in Scotland

Aside: 1073m assent on a 600?  :o  that is less than half the elevation of the 200 I'm doing this weekend

Paul
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: grams on 14 March, 2023, 08:07:32 pm
Normal 90 hours places are now all filled.

Some of the start waves are smaller than others, so I wouldn’t be shocked if they release more on the 25th, plus lots of musical chairs come June.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 14 March, 2023, 08:37:13 pm
Normal 90 hours places are now all filled.

Some of the start waves are smaller than others, so I wouldn’t be shocked if they release more on the 25th, plus lots of musical chairs come June.

There will be a lot of whinging on Saturday from French non-FFCT riders with a 200 longest brevet if there aren’t some 90h places and even more on 25 March for the no BRMs. With a total of only 8300 places in the system currently and almost 900 largely unloved 84h places available, (including group V 84h specials with 17 places taken of 120 limit), there is plenty of scope to push the total places above 9000 and swinging a lot of 84h places into 90h. The no BRM might be high on enthusiasm but the SR completion rate might be lower than previous waves. It’s a long way off but 2027 might have to look at (return to?)  a LEL start approach throughout the day & night

The “non-French” are within 100 of their nominal 5500 limit but I assume ACP might be somewhat relaxed about this allowing for 10-20% non completion of SRs and other non conversion of final registration causes. 2019 had 7600 pre-reg when it filled on 10 April but 1500 did not convert from pre-reg to registration, 1000 places were added in June but then another 450 dropped out between close of registrations (early July) and PBP start
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Wycombewheeler on 15 March, 2023, 12:06:44 am

Aside: 1073m assent on a 600?  :o  that is less than half the elevation of the 200 I'm doing this weekend

Paul

Do NOT underestimate this ride, when the wind blows from the south (or north) crossing the fens can be purgatory. I'd rather face the climbing of the Bryan Chapman Memorial. In a group in a still day I'm sure it's very jolly, but 200km solo into a headwind with no shelter, no gradient change, no hedge to hide behind to have a pee is very tough mentally. Also I was barely gaining enough time between controls to stop at controls. So I hour before cut off when I left Lincoln, same leaving Boston, same leaving the next town.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Wycombewheeler on 15 March, 2023, 12:18:12 am
The ARA Dresden are doing something like that this year.
https://www.ara-dresden.de/brevetwoche
Cutting it a bit fine for using as a pbp qualification but sounds like fun.

looks awesome, if I had known about that 2 month ago, that might well have featured in my planning, as it stands I have leave from work committed for PBP, London, lands end London, and a ski trip, so another week for this looks out of the question.

While the grand tour concept is the same, it seems like all the events are organised by the same club, and the four brevets start in Germany, Czech Republic, Czech Republic and Slovakia, and so while it will visit various countries it will not also be an international super randonneur series.

And now while I should be sleeping I am thinking about Cycling, travel and a blurred line between touring and audax
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Paul D on 15 March, 2023, 06:33:06 am

Aside: 1073m assent on a 600?  :o  that is less than half the elevation of the 200 I'm doing this weekend

Paul

Do NOT underestimate this ride, when the wind blows from the south (or north) crossing the fens can be purgatory. I'd rather face the climbing of the Bryan Chapman Memorial. In a group in a still day I'm sure it's very jolly, but 200km solo into a headwind with no shelter, no gradient change, no hedge to hide behind to have a pee is very tough mentally. Also I was barely gaining enough time between controls to stop at controls. So I hour before cut off when I left Lincoln, same leaving Boston, same leaving the next town.

Agree about the wind, but if you are lucky with the weather this is the easiest 600 on the calendar if you like time trialling! In 2018 I caught a tailwind North, doing the first 300km in 12 hours, then the wind dropped a bit overnight, I had a snooze at Boston and finished before lunch in the sunshine on Sunday. The climbing is more like 2000-2500m but still very benign. But the scenery was shite.  ;)
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Tomsk on 15 March, 2023, 07:37:31 am
... But the scenery was shite.  ;)

But but what about Goole's water tower (the biggest in Western Europe); Lincoln's catherdral and cobbles; the Venetian splendour of the New Bedford River, the South Forty Foot Drain and Bevill's Leam; and cabbages, you've got to love cabbages?!  ;)

Good mental preparation for the, lets face it, not terribly inspiring scenery on most of PBP. I can think of many, many places in La Belle France that I'd rather go touring, but that's not the point of the exercise.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: felstedrider on 15 March, 2023, 08:20:57 am

Aside: 1073m assent on a 600?  :o  that is less than half the elevation of the 200 I'm doing this weekend

Paul

Do NOT underestimate this ride, when the wind blows from the south (or north) crossing the fens can be purgatory. I'd rather face the climbing of the Bryan Chapman Memorial. In a group in a still day I'm sure it's very jolly, but 200km solo into a headwind with no shelter, no gradient change, no hedge to hide behind to have a pee is very tough mentally. Also I was barely gaining enough time between controls to stop at controls. So I hour before cut off when I left Lincoln, same leaving Boston, same leaving the next town.

Agree about the wind, but if you are lucky with the weather this is the easiest 600 on the calendar if you like time trialling! In 2018 I caught a tailwind North, doing the first 300km in 12 hours, then the wind dropped a bit overnight, I had a snooze at Boston and finished before lunch in the sunshine on Sunday. The climbing is more like 2000-2500m but still very benign. But the scenery was shite.  ;)

I've come to enjoy the Flatlands as it goes through a lot of my (original) home area.   Not doing it this year, though.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Frank9755 on 15 March, 2023, 10:41:33 am
The ARA Dresden are doing something like that this year.
https://www.ara-dresden.de/brevetwoche
Cutting it a bit fine for using as a pbp qualification but sounds like fun.

That sounds excellent.  I would love to do that even though I don't need the qualifiers, but the dates don't work.  Great that it moves on rather than clover-leafing back to a central HQ each night. 
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Hot Flatus on 15 March, 2023, 11:58:13 am
... But the scenery was shite.  ;)


Good mental preparation for the, lets face it, not terribly inspiring scenery on most of PBP. I can think of many, many places in La Belle France that I'd rather go touring, but that's not the point of the exercise.

I find dull roads far more taxing than hills and far more likely to end a ride for me. Utterly soul destroying.  I second your comment regarding PBP route, although I didn't see beyond Fougères, and therefore only saw half of the route, but it was mind-numbingly tedious. Not sure, in all honesty, why I'm even contemplating entering.   :facepalm: ;D

I'd say the same about the LEL route. If you tasked me with choosing the dullest way to get to Edinburgh, then I'd just send you a gpx of LEL.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: David H on 15 March, 2023, 07:40:08 pm
So the newly aquired metalwork holding the right collar bone together stood up to the Dean on Saturday so PBP is looking like it's back on.  :)
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: BerlinMatt on 15 March, 2023, 07:58:14 pm
The ARA Dresden are doing something like that this year.
https://www.ara-dresden.de/brevetwoche
Cutting it a bit fine for using as a pbp qualification but sounds like fun.

That sounds excellent.  I would love to do that even though I don't need the qualifiers, but the dates don't work.  Great that it moves on rather than clover-leafing back to a central HQ each night.
I can't get the dates to work either. The organiser is new and  his SR series looks pretty good as well. Lots of climbing  atleast compared to Berlin.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ivo on 15 March, 2023, 08:07:49 pm
The ARA Dresden are doing something like that this year.
https://www.ara-dresden.de/brevetwoche
Cutting it a bit fine for using as a pbp qualification but sounds like fun.

That sounds excellent.  I would love to do that even though I don't need the qualifiers, but the dates don't work.  Great that it moves on rather than clover-leafing back to a central HQ each night.
I can't get the dates to work either. The organiser is new and  his SR series looks pretty good as well. Lots of climbing  atleast compared to Berlin.

New as BRM organiser maybe, but as a rider....
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: grams on 16 March, 2023, 10:24:51 am
This has appeared on the PBP Facebook page (in French):
Quote
Does your start time work for you?
Pre-registered people will be able to change their start time during registration, beginning May 27, and especially starting June 10 noon, when non-transformed pre-registration times will be released and offered to waiters and registrants.
To start your registration, you must have completed three of the four qualifying patents.
“Waiters” is “personnes aux file d’attente”, literally “people waiting in the queue”. Since there’s no explicit queue presumably it means the great unwashed.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: madcow on 16 March, 2023, 08:33:44 pm
Normal 90 hours places are now all filled.

Some of the start waves are smaller than others, so I wouldn’t be shocked if they release more on the 25th, plus lots of musical chairs come June.

I've never been brave or confident enough to enter the 84 hour "Randonneur" group but have fiinished in under or around 84 hours on each of my 3 rides.
2011-79 hours (pure adrenalin rush), 2015 - 81 ish (slowed down a bit) ,2019 -84 ish (long sleep at Tintineac and Dreux).

If you are organised , determined and keep moving the 84 hour group is worth considering if it's the difference between being on the start line or not.
My average moving speed is  22-24 km/h. Not fast by any means.

ISTR a guidance note by Sheila Simpson that used completion times for 400 and 600 k rides as a good guide to which group to join.
Anyone still got a copy?
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Wycombewheeler on 17 March, 2023, 08:55:29 am

ISTR a guidance note by Sheila Simpson that used completion times for 400 and 600 k rides as a good guide to which group to join.
Anyone still got a copy?

my 400 BRM finishing times vary from 19 hours (back to the smoke, probably with a tail wind all the way) to 23:17 (brevet cymru) to 25:43 (asparagus and strawberries, with a good sleep)

This post quotes some numbers for the 84 hour group as per Sheila Simpson's advice
https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=43526.0
a 400 in less than 22 hours - I have a few of these
a 600 in less than 33 hours - never done this, my best was 33:55 on BCM
but then I will generally look to sleep for as long as possible at 360-400km, such that I arrive at the next control with 30 minutes to spare, I am not looking to finish a 600km event as quickly as possible. I prefer to arrive at the finish having slept properly and able to drive home. The quick BCM time was due to being turfed out of bed at kings to make way for later arrivals, reminds me I must book a BnB for this year.

For the record I made it round PBP in 79:20 last time, so could have ridden the 84 hour starts
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: madcow on 17 March, 2023, 02:13:48 pm
You have hit the nail on the head there. On a 600 it's possible to have a sleep and finish well within time ,so most riders take the opportunity to rest a while and so their finishing time makes them appear slow.
An 84 hour PBP will mean less sleep, so the decision may hang on how well you know that you can cope with that.
Some people cope with sleep deprivation better than others.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Tom on 20 March, 2023, 10:55:18 pm
Getting an itchy trigger finger waiting for
1100 on Saturday! Just for the absolute avoidance of doubt, I've got a couple of questions for the PBP sages...

Is the consensus that I'd be better off grabbing a less desirable 84h slot when it opens on sat, or chancing my arm and waiting for one of the more coveted 90h spots becoming available if and when people drop out in June?

Assuming I opt for an 84h spot, is there likely to be a facility to swap it for a 90h in June, subject to availability?

Provided I get 3 of my rides in and homologged by the June cutoff, am I absolutely definitively ok to do the 4th one between then and the July deadline? I've done a 200 and have entered a 300 in April and the bcm in may, but struggling to find a suitable date for a 400 until June.

Thanks in advance and I appreciate a lot of this may be unknown!
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 20 March, 2023, 11:21:40 pm
See the text from PBP FB re changing start times quoted by grams 4 posts above yours (16/March), only doubt is that it says  “start times” and we are assuming this implies time limit moves too, everything “subject to availability” and you completing the SR series. There will likely be a lot more 90h dropouts than other limits but more demand for those to be swapped to.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Tom on 21 March, 2023, 07:04:28 am
Thanks very much - not sure how I missed that post but thanks for the pointer 👍
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: frankly frankie on 22 March, 2023, 09:00:14 am
This post quotes some numbers for the 84 hour group as per Sheila Simpson's advice
https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=43526.0
a 400 in less than 22 hours - I have a few of these
a 600 in less than 33 hours - never done this, my best was 33:55 on BCM
but then I will generally look to sleep for as long as possible at 360-400km, such that I arrive at the next control with 30 minutes to spare, I am not looking to finish a 600km event as quickly as possible. I prefer to arrive at the finish having slept properly and able to drive home. The quick BCM time was due to being turfed out of bed at kings to make way for later arrivals, reminds me I must book a BnB for this year.

For the record I made it round PBP in 79:20 last time, so could have ridden the 84 hour starts

Riding conditions (both in AUK events and in PBP) have changed a lot since those guidelines were first posited in the early '80s.  In those days the longer AUK events were often predominantly on A-roads, meaning that those times were pretty 'normal' for about half the finishers.  Likewise, PBP had some legs consisting entirely of N-road.,  Now there is much more use of lanes and speeds are much slower.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 22 March, 2023, 09:41:06 am
FF is right. AUK brevets generally have slower routes compared to last century. The PBP route has got noticeably slower recently too and this year’s route is likely to be slower again, given the extra climbing.

If a rider can hit Sheila’s guide times for SR distances, they are likely to have a fairly comfortable time with the various PBP time limits. If not, their PBP could be a bit intense.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: frankly frankie on 22 March, 2023, 10:07:24 am
I should also have mentioned - the PBP start times have changed radically since back then.  In the '80s, the 84h start time was 10:00 am - making it by far the most attractive option with minimum pre-load of sleep deprivation - the other two times were 4 am (90h) and 4 pm (78h).  When I first entered (1983) the 84h genuinely seemed like the easy option.  I would not enjoy the evening starts as they have been in recent editions.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ian H on 22 March, 2023, 11:42:00 am
Other things being equal, the 84hr starts seem to be the calmest.  Both the others, in my experience, go off a bit like 4th cat races, with carnage only narrowly avoided.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Hot Flatus on 22 March, 2023, 12:29:20 pm
That was my experience in the 90h start in '07. Utterly, utterly awful. Quite a lot of riders looked like it was their first time riding a bicycle.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: felstedrider on 22 March, 2023, 01:23:37 pm
Looking at my experiences over the last 6 events.

The start is a lot more orderly and group sizes are smaller.   This was only introduced in 2015 but reduces the madness a bit and takes away a lot of the sitting around.   Riding standards haven't necessarily improved.   I think some countries do a lot of their riding in much smaller events and it seems like group riding is a new thing for them.   Riding on the other side of the road does cause issues with people moving to the 'wrong' side.   I find a lot of people ride on the white line which means you have to move into oncoming traffic in order to overtake.   In the end I started passing riders doing this on the right and no-one seemed to mind.

My strategy for the last 2 events where start times became a thing was to get off in an early 90hr group and ride briskly for a few hours.   This quickly gets you into a bit of dead space between the vedettes and the bulge.   This resulted in quiet controls and no issues getting fed or finding a bed.   Last time round I booked into a hotel opposite the Brest control and had a decent break before setting off back.   
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Tom on 25 March, 2023, 11:08:01 am
Well it looks like I'm in  :o.  I went for the last group on the road (0600 start, 84h band), but may well try and transfer to a 90h group when registration opens properly.  That said, based on people's comments and my own riding preferences, I might leave it as is.  Either way, thanks very much for all the help and tips - just need to get the riding done now!
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: marcusjb on 25 March, 2023, 11:09:07 am
In - 5:15 Randonneurs group X

A massive hill to climb for fitness - but I have the target to aim at now.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Hot Flatus on 25 March, 2023, 11:43:02 am
5.30am start 84hr group. Not mad excited, but it's something to get me back onto doing an SR.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Bianchi Boy on 25 March, 2023, 03:38:00 pm
I have a 90h start, like last time. It was a bit mad and a bit of terrible group riding nearly knocked me off. A ridder in the middle of the group decided he has going to the outside and barged straight into my front wheel. I then leaned onto the rider on on my left. Huge group wobble and somehow no body came off.

It all settled down after that, but I would rather not do that again.

Sent from my XQ-BT52 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: ruffstuff on 26 March, 2023, 04:35:57 pm
Hoping to get a start in this Years PBP .. No Rides completed last Year !! what are my chances and how best to enter PBP ? I have completed 4 PBS's  in the past .. sadley missed 2019 due to bringing up our Young son .. This year I have been given the green light for another PBP ... 200 km completed .. 300,400 and 600km entered  Fingers crossed I can get a start ??
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Hot Flatus on 26 March, 2023, 04:55:49 pm
Hoping to get a start in this Years PBP .. No Rides completed last Year !! what are my chances and how best to enter PBP ? I have completed 4 PBS's  in the past .. sadley missed 2019 due to bringing up our Young son .. This year I have been given the green light for another PBP ... 200 km completed .. 300,400 and 600km entered  Fingers crossed I can get a start ??

Click here:

https://myaccount.audax-club-parisien.com/?page=liste_activites

Click Paris-Brest, fill in the details and make sure you enter Audax UK as your club (it's a bit clunky)
Pay your 50€ and hey presto you have a place
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Tom on 26 March, 2023, 08:31:40 pm
I didn't put audax UK down as my club and just entered as an independent. Is that likely to cause problems down the line? My payment went through ok and I managed to find my completed 200 via the homologation number.

Should also point out I am a member of audax UK, just didn't realise it was a club...
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: L CC on 27 March, 2023, 08:58:56 am
With a club it's easier for them to check your homologations. I'm not sure they can do it without?
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Hot Flatus on 27 March, 2023, 09:01:36 am
I didn't put audax UK down as my club and just entered as an independent. Is that likely to cause problems down the line? My payment went through ok and I managed to find my completed 200 via the homologation number.

Should also point out I am a member of audax UK, just didn't realise it was a club...

I've no idea, but it seemed like a good idea. You can probably go back and edit your details if you want.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: bhoot on 27 March, 2023, 09:29:35 am
If you never filled any club affiliation on your AUK membership record, by default your "ACP Club" for your results will be AUK.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: iroiromono on 27 March, 2023, 12:53:11 pm
What is most important is your homologation numbers. You can search these and select your results.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Tom on 27 March, 2023, 02:54:39 pm
Thanks all. I can find my one existing homologation number through the PBP website, so hopefully it'll all work ok come July.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Wycombewheeler on 27 March, 2023, 03:42:44 pm
Thanks all. I can find my one existing homologation number through the PBP website, so hopefully it'll all work ok come July.

as you ride your qualifiers you should see them appear in you results section on the PBP website. This should happen reasonably quickly. If you can see the homoglation number on the AUK website and you can't see the result on the PBP website, then it's time to look into matters. Don't wait until July.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Tom on 27 March, 2023, 07:27:29 pm
Thanks. I had another look and, although I can search for and find my 200k on the PBP site, it is not automatically appearing in my brm results. I've sent a message to the organisers and just hope they take pity on my mangled Franglais...
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: cygnet on 27 March, 2023, 07:59:15 pm
Having a nominated club makes it easie for the database r to link brevets to your ID automatically, but If you can find the homogulation number on the ACP site then there should be a button for you to "claim" it.

It's not uncommon to need to claim the result e.g. for overseas brevets but it will make things easier if you can edit (or add) Audax UK to your club list in your profile.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Tom on 27 March, 2023, 08:43:53 pm
And just like that, Thierry from acp has modifie my account and all is well with the world. Excellent service 👍
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: iroiromono on 28 March, 2023, 08:44:33 am
My experience is that club needs to be correctly entered on the ACP results upload.

For those doing rides overseas this may vary. My results for example include club listed as:
"Rapha CC"
"Audax Ecosse"
"Randonneurs Malaysia"
"Audax Randonneurs Vietnam"

Key thing is just to have your homologation # and to claim this
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Lightning Phil on 28 March, 2023, 09:22:03 am
Having a nominated club makes it easie for the database r to link brevets to your ID automatically, but If you can find the homogulation number on the ACP site then there should be a button for you to "claim" it.

If they are audax uk events, you don’t need to look on the ACP site for the number. It’s listed in your individual results on audax.uk. Click on my ride history from your dashboard page that first comes up when you log in.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: iroiromono on 28 March, 2023, 10:22:57 am
Having a nominated club makes it easie for the database r to link brevets to your ID automatically, but If you can find the homogulation number on the ACP site then there should be a button for you to "claim" it.

If they are audax uk events, you don’t need to look on the ACP site for the number. It’s listed in your individual results on audax.uk. Click on my ride history from your dashboard page that first comes up when you log in.

I think it is more about making sure all your BRM Homologation Numbers from Audax.uk results are also present in your ACP account. I know that I have to sometimes claim these as they're not automatically identified for one reason or another.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Lightning Phil on 28 March, 2023, 02:53:29 pm
Having a nominated club makes it easie for the database r to link brevets to your ID automatically, but If you can find the homogulation number on the ACP site then there should be a button for you to "claim" it.

If they are audax uk events, you don’t need to look on the ACP site for the number. It’s listed in your individual results on audax.uk. Click on my ride history from your dashboard page that first comes up when you log in.

I think it is more about making sure all your BRM Homologation Numbers from Audax.uk results are also present in your ACP account. I know that I have to sometimes claim these as they're not automatically identified for one reason or another.

Indeed, but once you have the number from your audax.uk account (or card) you can search for it directly in your ACP account to add it to your list of BRMs. If necessary of course. I didn’t think I needed to state the latter, given the context of the thread and where in the forum it is.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: ruffstuff on 31 March, 2023, 09:54:35 pm
One Week later from page 9.. I have a Pre  entry registration Number but going onto the PBP site I cant seem be able to pay my 50 Euros ? Maybe because there are no start times availiable  and Im perhaps im on the reserve list ?? Any ideas please ??
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 31 March, 2023, 11:02:46 pm
One Week later from page 9.. I have a Pre  entry registration Number but going onto the PBP site I cant seem be able to pay my 50 Euros ? Maybe because there are no start times availiable  and Im perhaps im on the reserve list ?? Any ideas please ??

You would have had to select a time when you pre-registered and there has been no standard “bicycle” 90h times available since 14 March? How long ago did you pre-register, they get cancelled if not paid for within 3 days. There are still 22 80h & 367 84h (286 "bicycle" & 81 "special") times available and 15 “special” 90h and many people are hoping to change times when / if some become available after 10 June (due to incomplete qualifying series)

What happens when you enter your entry number into the “Paiements” screen
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Hot Flatus on 03 April, 2023, 05:08:19 pm
Are PBP qualifying rides automatically uploaded onto one's PBP registration or do riders have to enter the homologation number themselves?
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Wycombewheeler on 03 April, 2023, 06:06:43 pm
Are PBP qualifying rides automatically uploaded onto one's PBP registration or do riders have to enter the homologation number themselves?
mine appeared automatically.
If your ACP club is not a club previously identified as yours with ACP then you may need to search.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Lightning Phil on 03 April, 2023, 06:22:24 pm
My first one has turned up automatically
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Flâneur on 04 April, 2023, 11:03:49 am
mine appeared automatically.
If your ACP club is not a club previously identified as yours with ACP then you may need to search.

Mine have not. I have Audax UK and my local group set as clubs. What am I missing?
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Hot Flatus on 04 April, 2023, 11:15:42 am
My first one has turned up automatically

If I click on BRM results on the ACP site then loads appear from previous years, and also my recent 300. Am I to assume that I don't have to enter anything manually?
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Flâneur on 04 April, 2023, 11:23:41 am
Mine have not. I have Audax UK and my local group set as clubs. What am I missing?

I had to add one of my homologation numbers manually and then confirm I was the rider, then I got my full BRM history.

Adding LEL 2021/2 is more of a mystery - my homologation number brings up a Thai rider's 1000, presumably because it was issued by LRM instead of ACP. Anyone have any hints there? (I see to remember having similar issues at pre-registration, but haven't the foggiest how I overcame it)
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Lightning Phil on 04 April, 2023, 11:57:00 am
My first one has turned up automatically

If I click on BRM results on the ACP site then loads appear from previous years, and also my recent 300. Am I to assume that I don't have to enter anything manually?

You’ll need to convert your pre registration into a registration, once you have three qualifying brevets.  But I don’t think you can do that, at the earliest, before May 27th. Thus for now, check your events are showing up as you complete them. Other than that, sit tight, and get the qualifying done.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Lightning Phil on 04 April, 2023, 11:58:10 am
Mine have not. I have Audax UK and my local group set as clubs. What am I missing?

I had to add one of my homologation numbers manually and then confirm I was the rider, then I got my full BRM history.

Adding LEL 2021/2 is more of a mystery - my homologation number brings up a Thai rider's 1000, presumably because it was issued by LRM instead of ACP. Anyone have any hints there? (I see to remember having similar issues at pre-registration, but haven't the foggiest how I overcame it)

Email someone at ACP? Must be a contact listed on their website.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Wycombewheeler on 04 April, 2023, 02:10:16 pm
Mine have not. I have Audax UK and my local group set as clubs. What am I missing?

I had to add one of my homologation numbers manually and then confirm I was the rider, then I got my full BRM history.

Adding LEL 2021/2 is more of a mystery - my homologation number brings up a Thai rider's 1000, presumably because it was issued by LRM instead of ACP. Anyone have any hints there? (I see to remember having similar issues at pre-registration, but haven't the foggiest how I overcame it)
yes once you have added one, then the PBP website links with all the others, so as I did PBP 2019 I was already identified to them. If you had not finding the first once identifies them all.

Mine have not. I have Audax UK and my local group set as clubs. What am I missing?

I had to add one of my homologation numbers manually and then confirm I was the rider, then I got my full BRM history.

Adding LEL 2021/2 is more of a mystery - my homologation number brings up a Thai rider's 1000, presumably because it was issued by LRM instead of ACP. Anyone have any hints there? (I see to remember having similar issues at pre-registration, but haven't the foggiest how I overcame it)
I think the ACP records only BRM results on the results page. my LEL1500 doesn't show up on my results either, but I was able to refer to it to pre register, so I am not concerned.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: felstedrider on 04 April, 2023, 02:22:13 pm
My 2019 rides are on there but my 2023 rides are not pulling through.

I have typed in the number for one of my new 200s and it shows up but the box that says 'Confirm ?' is empty.   Should there be a button there ?

I have tried in Chrome and Edge and it doesn't shoe up although this is the work PC so it may be getting blocked for a different reason.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Flâneur on 04 April, 2023, 02:29:51 pm
Thanks WycombeWheeler

I have typed in the number for one of my new 200s and it shows up but the box that says 'Confirm ?' is empty.   Should there be a button there ?

That sounds similar to what I had with the Thai 1000 I referred to - no confirm box. Presumably there is some checking behind the website scenes that it is the same rider. I'd check that all the ACP account details are in line with what AUK hold for you (I don't think the ACP site supports AUK membership numbers to tie things up), and add all the clubs you may be listed under.

Edited to add: And of course it will only show up once ACP homologation has been granted.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ajax Bay on 04 April, 2023, 11:13:25 pm
My 2019 rides are on there but my 2023 rides are not pulling through.
I have typed in the number for one of my new 200s and it shows up but the box that says 'Confirm ?' is empty.   Should there be a button there ?
I have tried in Chrome and Edge and it doesn't shoe up although this is the work PC so it may be getting blocked for a different reason.
In https://myaccount.audax-club-parisien.com/
https://myaccount.audax-club-parisien.com/?page=profil/profil
https://myaccount.audax-club-parisien.com/?page=resultats/resultats_brm
All my BRMs are shown, including my 200 (Airmail) and 300 (Rough Diamond) these last two months.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 08 April, 2023, 10:16:11 pm
Heads-Up !

For anyone up and still keen, about 150 available 90h bicycle places have just appeared on the pre-registration site at 23:00 (Paris) Saturday 8/Apr, all in the later third of the 90h start times, Q to U.

PS It looks like you can also now modify an existing pre-registration including start time.

So returning to Tom’s original question regarding the “odds of getting a place”, currently 100% as there are almost 150 90h places and 300 84h places all without any longest ride qualification in 2022. I am surprised the 90h places are not flying off the shelf , perhaps no-one was expecting more to be available this side of June and so has not yet noticed?

I have done a very foolish thing and pre-registered, a 90h place was just too tempting, talk about forlorn hopes
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 10 April, 2023, 06:08:43 pm
Has the option to alter start times/ groups been locked down again?
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ajax Bay on 10 April, 2023, 07:58:41 pm
Has the option to alter start times/ groups been locked down again?
There are 23-33 starts left on the last 4 90H starts (2015-2100).
There are no 80H starts 'left' but plenty of 84H starts.
Last time a pre-registrant had about 48 hours to modify their start before that button 'vanished'.
I expect there to be a churn on 10 Jun.
Have taken the plunge with a 2000 (Q) start. I shall not stop, however briefly, on the Sunday evening at Mortagne this time.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 10 April, 2023, 08:58:40 pm
HK is looking to swap to VS90 and it is well past 48 hours since she preregistered. If need be, I will drop ACP an email.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 10 April, 2023, 10:52:37 pm
Have taken the plunge with a 2000 (Q) start. I shall not stop, however briefly, on the Sunday evening at Mortagne this time.

On Sunday there were a couple in earlier groups, I got the last M which puts me right in the middle of the bulge, I am very slow and will have to very minimise controls especially any queueing for anything except card stamping. Do the veterans have advice regarding alternate refuelling places/strategies ? If skipping outward Mortagne where else to stop during the night for food?
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ivo on 11 April, 2023, 05:56:53 am
Have taken the plunge with a 2000 (Q) start. I shall not stop, however briefly, on the Sunday evening at Mortagne this time.

On Sunday there were a couple in N & P, I got the last N which puts me right in the middle of the bulge, I am very slow and will have to very minimise controls especially any queueing for anything except card stamping. Do the veterans have advice regarding alternate refuelling places/strategies ? If skipping outward Mortagne where else to stop during the night for food?

there are locals all over the place offering food and drinks.
In Mortagne usually the supermarket and the baker are open, as well as various pubs. All faster as the 'control'.
After about 100km is a Café des Sports which normally stays open all night (they usually announce that on the French forum).
So just go with the flow and stop when you need to, not when an official control is on offer.
The ACP announced that they'll optimise the controls for those who just want to stamp and go.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 11 April, 2023, 10:33:44 am
HK is looking to swap to VS90 and it is well past 48 hours since she preregistered. If need be, I will drop ACP an email.

I Paid today and the "Modify" button disappeared as soon as my pre-registration was Validated.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 11 April, 2023, 10:37:45 am

there are locals all over the place offering food and drinks.
...
So just go with the flow and stop when you need to, not when an official control is on offer.
The ACP announced that they'll optimise the controls for those who just want to stamp and go.

Thanks Ivo, while I have reviewed all the 2019 posts I am sure to have dozens of questions more
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ivo on 11 April, 2023, 06:26:50 pm

there are locals all over the place offering food and drinks.
...
So just go with the flow and stop when you need to, not when an official control is on offer.
The ACP announced that they'll optimise the controls for those who just want to stamp and go.

Thanks Ivo, while I have reviewed all the 2019 posts I am sure to have dozens of questions more

Well, then open a 'ask the anciens' thread so you can pick the minds of all the anciens of YACF.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ian H on 11 April, 2023, 09:58:07 pm

there are locals all over the place offering food and drinks.
...
So just go with the flow and stop when you need to, not when an official control is on offer.
The ACP announced that they'll optimise the controls for those who just want to stamp and go.

Thanks Ivo, while I have reviewed all the 2019 posts I am sure to have dozens of questions more

Well, then open a 'ask the anciens' thread so you can pick the minds of all the anciens of YACF.
Those of us that are still alive.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Von Broad on 12 April, 2023, 05:49:48 am
'ask the anciens'

what's the qualification to be one a them?
i still feel like a bit of a newcomer with only three under me belt!
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ivo on 12 April, 2023, 05:56:08 am
'ask the anciens'

what's the qualification to be one a them?
i still feel like a bit of a newcomer with only three under me belt!

Traditionally, you're an ancien after you've completed 1 PBP. So you definitively qualify
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 27 April, 2023, 02:45:00 pm
Currently spaces for:
6 x 80hr
12 x 90hr (likely Velo Speciale only)
256 x 84hr
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 01 May, 2023, 11:21:01 pm
90h bicycle places had run out again about a week ago, 10 x 90h specials only left but just now 4 x 90h places have become available, 1 x group S & 3 x group U, better be quick if you want them.

Otherwise 238 84h of which 73 are specials and no 80h left
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ajax Bay on 09 May, 2023, 04:53:35 pm
90h bicycle places had run out again about a week ago, 10 x 90h specials only left but just now 4 x 90h places have become available, 1 x group S & 3 x group U, better be quick if you want them.

Otherwise 238 84h of which 73 are specials and no 80h left
9 May: Still four 90hr starts showing as available for pre-registration, as well as plenty of 84hr Mon am ones.
"Pre-registered participants will be able to modify their departure time during registration, starting from May 27th, and particularly from 1100 BST 10 Jun, when pre-registrations not converted to registrations will be released [and their start times]. To start registration, you must have completed at least three BRM PBP qualifying brevets."
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 10 May, 2023, 12:04:25 am
9 May: Still four 90hr starts showing as available for pre-registration,

But all 4 90h are “special”, and oddly 73 of the 203 84h places are also “special”, has been 73 for more than a month, those will never go, must be warehoused for later?
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: iroiromono on 10 May, 2023, 11:58:16 am
I really hope some more 90hrs open up. I'm bringing a team from Vietnam for whom it will be the countries first participation in the event. As it is our first year having BRM in Vietnam, no one else was able to pre-register early so are all signed up under 84hr groups.
For all it will be there first ride longer than 1200 so I think the 90hr group will be necessary.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ajax Bay on 11 May, 2023, 12:39:03 am
E-mail from the organiser just in. No new information requiring action. Have edited to improve translation and remove irrelevances.

"We thank you for being pre-registered for Paris-Brest-Paris Randonneur 2023. More than 8400 pre-registered for a maximum number of 8000 places (the event is designed for), which forced us to set up queuing lists. However not all pre-registrations will be converted into registrations and we believe that you will all be able to find a starting slot.
All you have to do now is convert your pre-registration into registration. To do this, enter your ACP account (https://myaccount.audax-club-parisien.com).
On-line registration will be opened on 27 May.
You can start your registration with only 3 brevets but you will need to provide the 4 homologation numbers to have your registration validated.
Please note that you will lose your reserved place if you have not started your registration before 1200 CEST 10 Jun.
Some want to change your start time. This will be possible during registrations and especially on 10 Jun when pre-registrations are 'cancelled' because they have not been converted to registrations: those start times will be released for others who have registered to change to.
So be ready to seize this opportunity on 1200 CEST 10 Jun!
In any case you must have provided the 4 homologation numbers of your qualifying brevets before 2359 CEST 2 Jul. Help will be available on the registration page to help you find your numbers.
Your frame plate number as well as various documents will be sent to you by email when your entry is validated, no later than 15 Jul."
Comment: 10 Jun (start time 'change day') is a Saturday which is a tad annoying. There are several 600s scheduled which many will be riding. 6am start. By 11am riders will be at least 100 in so identifying a cafe with good wifi may be an option for those who are not satisfied with their current 'lot'.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 11 May, 2023, 12:42:51 am
I really hope some more 90hrs open up. ...

There will be, in 2019 1500 of the 7600 pre-registered riders had not entered at least 3 of their 4 qualifying rides by mid June and where therefore cancelled and their places became available. the 2023 dropoff is from 8500 so likely more?. You probably got an email from the organisers in the last 24 hours which reminder us to be ready on 10th June noon (Paris time) for times to be available BUT your team members will have to have 3 of their qualifiers completed and noted in ACP records so that they can pick another time when registering.

So, do qualifiers (well) before 10th June and be online at noon (Paris) on the 10th June to initiate the registration and change time slot to a 90h one.

Good Luck, I will need some too.

Ps, for your own pre-registration make sure you enter 3 qualifying rides between 27 May and 10th June otherwise your place would be cancelled.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: iroiromono on 11 May, 2023, 03:41:59 am
E-mail from the organiser just in. No new information requiring action. Have edited to improve translation and remove irrelevances.

"We thank you for being pre-registered for Paris-Brest-Paris Randonneur 2023. More than 8400 pre-registered for a maximum number of 8000 places (the event is designed for), which forced us to set up queuing lists. However not all pre-registrations will be converted into registrations and we believe that you will all be able to find a starting slot...

Below is the original email from ACP. I think your interpretation of the second sentence is wrong. I didn't recieve this email as I pre-registered early. I think this was sent to people who pre-registered after 8,000.

Quote
Hello,
We thank you for being pre-registered for Paris-Brest-Paris Randonneur 2023. You were more than 8400 to pre-register for a maximum number of 8000 places, which forced us to set up queuing lists. Not all pre-registrations will be converted into registrations and we believe that you will all be able to find a starting slot.
You should already  started your qualifying brevets. So, all you have to do now is convert your pre-registrations into registration starting on May 27 noon (Paris time) (June 03 for non-FFCT French people). To do this, you will enter your ACP account (https://myaccount.audax-club-parisien.com).
Registration forms will only be available from May 27. You can start your registration with only three brevets but you will need to provide the 4 approval numbers to have your registration validated.
Please note that you will lose your reserved place if you have not started your registration before June 10, 12:00 (Paris time).
Many of you want to change your departure time. This will be possible during registrations and especially starting on June 10th when slots not used for registration will be released.
So be ready to seize this opportunity on June 10 noon (Paris time)! You must have provided the 4 approval numbers of your qualifying brevets before midnight July 02 (Paris time). Help will be available on the registration page to help you find your approval numbers if you have lost them.
Your frame plate number as well as various documents will be sent to you by email when your entry is validated, no later than July 15th.

Be aware, for those who need a visa to travel to France, that an invitation letter is available (link DOCUMENT) on your ACP account (https://myaccount.audax-club-parisien.com) + PBP.

Best regards,
The organizing team
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 11 May, 2023, 04:23:48 am

Below is the original email from ACP. I think your interpretation of the second sentence is wrong. I didn't recieve this email as I pre-registered early. I think this was sent to people who pre-registered after 8,000.

I got the e-mail and I have a validated 90h place (Group M 19:00). There is apparently a waiting list group of maybe 100+ who picked 90h but did not pick a time because there were none left, sounds like an error in the pre-registration process, I have only seen this discussed on a RUSA forum, was suggested these people would be randomly assigned a time from those cancelled on 10th June.

But otherwise your “team” I assume have pre-registered with 84h group times . They will have to part register with at least 3 qualifiers between 27/May & before 10/June in order to keep their pre-registration active (I think ACP call this “initiating” the registration) and then pick another available time after 10/June and later (before 2/July) complete / finalise their registration with the 4th qualifier (and pay?). Until we see the registration screens and process from 27/May there is some uncertainty regarding exactly how it will all work.

PS The 8000 limit  is riders at the start on 20/August, unless riders have been unusually well prepared they will be lucky to have more than low 7,000s actually start, in 2019 there were 7600 pre-registered but some months later only 6,600 actually started after 1500 were cancelled due to not entering 3 qualifies by mid June and then another 1000 places were made available for 3 of 4 qualified riders and another 600 failed to complete 4 qualifiers or for other reasons did not start..
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Wycombewheeler on 11 May, 2023, 10:34:54 am
E-mail from the organiser just in. No new information requiring action. Have edited to improve translation and remove irrelevances.

"We thank you for being pre-registered for Paris-Brest-Paris Randonneur 2023. More than 8400 pre-registered for a maximum number of 8000 places (the event is designed for), which forced us to set up queuing lists. However not all pre-registrations will be converted into registrations and we believe that you will all be able to find a starting slot...

Below is the original email from ACP. I think your interpretation of the second sentence is wrong. I didn't recieve this email as I pre-registered early. I think this was sent to people who pre-registered after 8,000.

Quote
Hello,
We thank you for being pre-registered for Paris-Brest-Paris Randonneur 2023. You were more than 8400 to pre-register for a maximum number of 8000 places, which forced us to set up queuing lists. Not all pre-registrations will be converted into registrations and we believe that you will all be able to find a starting slot.
You should already  started your qualifying brevets. So, all you have to do now is convert your pre-registrations into registration starting on May 27 noon (Paris time) (June 03 for non-FFCT French people). To do this, you will enter your ACP account (https://myaccount.audax-club-parisien.com).
Registration forms will only be available from May 27. You can start your registration with only three brevets but you will need to provide the 4 approval numbers to have your registration validated.
Please note that you will lose your reserved place if you have not started your registration before June 10, 12:00 (Paris time).
Many of you want to change your departure time. This will be possible during registrations and especially starting on June 10th when slots not used for registration will be released.
So be ready to seize this opportunity on June 10 noon (Paris time)! You must have provided the 4 approval numbers of your qualifying brevets before midnight July 02 (Paris time). Help will be available on the registration page to help you find your approval numbers if you have lost them.
Your frame plate number as well as various documents will be sent to you by email when your entry is validated, no later than July 15th.

Be aware, for those who need a visa to travel to France, that an invitation letter is available (link DOCUMENT) on your ACP account (https://myaccount.audax-club-parisien.com) + PBP.

Best regards,
The organizing team


all true, but there will be drop outs and they will not be evenly split between the start groups, so some 90hr groups will almost certainly have places become available. Also there may be some with a 90hr place who gain confidence to go for the shorter time limit, allowing an earlier start time. (Earlier start time allows the benefits of quieter controls and dorms that will never be full on arrival)

Four years ago I got round in 79hrs 20, my return journey was quite relaxed with lots of extra stops, so I could have been faster, but when I registered I wasn't confident my form was as good as 4 years ago. When I complete my 600 qualifier/training rides I may decide 80 hours is the way to go. (Basically if I can complete a 600 in 32 hours or less, I will be confident I can make it to Brest by Midnight on Monday and therefore be comfortable finishing inside 80 hours)
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: CrazyEnglishTriathlete on 11 May, 2023, 02:12:48 pm
I got the email, and I was a reasonably early registrant.  My reading of the message was - if you get your 4 registered brevets in time, then you will get a place, as they don't expect more than 8000 of the 8400 registrants to complete an SR series according to the rules. 

The main points are that you need to update the registration with at least 3 of your 4 ACP brevet numbers between 27 May when the system opens (june 3 for non-french residents) and 10 June and then put the final one in before 2 July.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ajax Bay on 11 May, 2023, 11:31:44 pm
E-mail from the organiser just in. No new information requiring action. Have edited to improve translation and remove irrelevances.
"We thank you for being pre-registered for Paris-Brest-Paris Randonneur 2023. More than 8400 pre-registered for a maximum number of 8000 places (the event is designed for), which forced us to set up queuing lists. However not all pre-registrations will be converted into registrations and we believe that you will all be able to find a starting slot...
Below is the original email from ACP. I think your interpretation of the second sentence is wrong. I didn't recieve this email as I pre-registered early. I think this was sent to people who pre-registered after 8,000.
Quote
We thank you for being pre-registered for Paris-Brest-Paris Randonneur 2023. You were more than 8400 to pre-register for a maximum number of 8000 places, which forced us to set up queuing lists. Not all pre-registrations will be converted into registrations and we believe that you will all be able to find a starting slot.
I suggest that my interpretation is actually spot on: "more than 8400 pre-registered". This is actually the case. And the 8000 is the number ACP think the event might manage. The guff about  'queuing lists' [des listes d'attente] is just that.
Check your spam box.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: iroiromono on 12 May, 2023, 08:25:46 am
Apologies. You may be correct.

 Email received this afternoon from ACP, a day later than others.

Either way, we've got our homologation numbers listed under our accounts on the ACP website for our SR Series, so patiently awaiting 10 June.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Wycombewheeler on 12 May, 2023, 10:00:14 am
Apologies. You may be correct.

 Email received this afternoon from ACP, a day later than others.

Either way, we've got our homologation numbers listed under our accounts on the ACP website for our SR Series, so patiently awaiting 10 June.
10th of June is the deadline, for registration, you can complete the process on the 27th of May.

Or do you mean waiting until 10th of June to see what other slots come up?
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 12 May, 2023, 11:24:00 am
I only got the email late yesterday, so I guess there were staggered mailings.

Do people think that anybody who hasn't already pre-registered for PBP will not be able to register now? Not an issue for me but perhaps this might affect others hoping to register after completing their SR.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Wycombewheeler on 12 May, 2023, 02:06:46 pm
I only got the email late yesterday, so I guess there were staggered mailings.

Do people think that anybody who hasn't already pre-registered for PBP will not be able to register now? Not an issue for me but perhaps this might affect others hoping to register after completing their SR.
I think there will be a few places, but not many. So If I was hoping for one I would be on the website at noon on 10th June, or whatever other time they will make it available.

They have allowed 8400 pre registrations, and expect 8,000 to be converted to registrations. Their 400 drop out rate is probably conservative, so if 600 fail to turn pre-reg into reg I would expect 200 places to become available. I can't remember what the drop out rate was in 2019, but I suspect it was more than 5%

Pre reg price is very low so it's not an issue to be a bit speculative, but paying 250euro makes it all seem a more real so people may drop out when adding up costs of travel and accommodation if the whole thing is out of budget, not just because they fail with the qualifiers. After all the majority of pre registrations did a 400 BRM or longer last season so riding an SR series shouldn't be too onerous a task. (baring unfortunate season ending injuries). So I don't think we can attribute 2019 drop outs soley to people who could not complete the required SR.

Of course they might decide 7800 riders rather than 8,000 will make the event more comfortable for everyone, so  ??? But at this point I would not give up hope personally.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 13 May, 2023, 01:18:09 am
2019 was 1500 dropout (fail to enter 3 qualifiers by mid June) out of 7600 pre-registered when that filled up on 10 April 2019, so almost 20%. Then about 1000 places for non pre-registered people with at least 3 qualifiers filled by the early July close. A few hundred more must have not done a 4th as the “final” fully registered tally was 6673 and a couple of hundred DNS.

Currently available 4 x 90h specials (F) and 73 x 84h specials (W) & 113 84h bicycle all  with no indication these are anything other than standard pre-registration spots.  The 73 available in Group W is a bit odd as there are only about 15 pre-registered 84h Specials

The French and by implication non- French quotas haven’t been mentioned by ACP for a while
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: grams on 24 May, 2023, 10:51:30 am
I’m not going to have 3 BRMs by the first cutoff. Anyone know what happens?
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 24 May, 2023, 10:55:10 am
I’m not going to have 3 BRMs by the first cutoff. Anyone know what happens?

If you don't have 3 qualifiers in the bag by 10 June, I think you have problems entering PBP.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 24 May, 2023, 11:33:09 am
I’m not going to have 3 BRMs by the first cutoff. Anyone know what happens?

You lose your selected start time on the 10th of June unless you have "initiated" the registration (needing 3 qualifiers), BUT remain as a pre-registered rider, when you get your 3 qualifiers you can "initiate" your registration (must be before 2nd July), when you get your 4th qualifier you can "finalise" / complete your registration. I don't know if you get to pick your start time (from those still available) at the initiation or finalisation stage, we might see on Saturday (27th) then we see the additional screens for registration. Registration "closes" on 2nd July and that's it!

I don't think I am going to make it either as too many complications have arisen with getting the time off, flights etc....
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: grams on 24 May, 2023, 01:07:36 pm
Thanks for the comprehensive answer, LateStarter.

Thanks for the series of words, LWaB.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: czarop on 24 May, 2023, 01:10:18 pm
I’m not going to have 3 BRMs by the first cutoff. Anyone know what happens?

Me neither - thanks to missing a couple of key rides through illness I'm left with no way of getting my 3rd BRM number by June 10th. Just not enough free weekends!
With a bit of luck I'm still aiming to complete the SR (should have 3rd BRM number by mid June)... fingers crossed there are some slots available.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Wycombewheeler on 24 May, 2023, 07:39:55 pm
I’m not going to have 3 BRMs by the first cutoff. Anyone know what happens?

You lose your selected start time on the 10th of June unless you have "initiated" the registration (needing 3 qualifiers), BUT remain as a pre-registered rider, when you get your 3 qualifiers you can "initiate" your registration (must be before 2nd July), when you get your 4th qualifier you can "finalise" / complete your registration. I don't know if you get to pick your start time (from those still available) at the initiation or finalisation stage, we might see on Saturday (27th) then we see the additional screens for registration. Registration "closes" on 2nd July and that's it!

I don't think I am going to make it either as too many complications have arisen with getting the time off, flights etc....
but doesn't that assume places are still available. On 10th of june pre registrations which have not been initiated will be lost. People who did not pre register but have the 3 qualifying brevets would now be allowed to register. 4 years ago, this was not a large number, as people did not anticipate many slots becoming available. Now with the knowledge that all is not lost there may be more optimists riding their brevets.

Assuming all spaces are not taken up by the time anyone that lost their pre registration gets to 3 BRMs they would then have a chance to register.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Lightning Phil on 24 May, 2023, 08:11:37 pm
It says this, in the email we were sent

“ Please note that you will lose your reserved place if you have not started your registration before June 10, 12:00 (Paris time).”
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: quixoticgeek on 24 May, 2023, 09:50:07 pm

Dunno if it's any use, but there's a 600 from Amsterdam on the 3rd.

J
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Wycombewheeler on 24 May, 2023, 10:46:51 pm
on the 3rd of June there are 600s in Alfreton, Carlisle and Stevenage sill taking entries
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 24 May, 2023, 11:26:05 pm
but doesn't that assume places are still available. On 10th of june pre registrations which have not been initiated will be lost. People who did not pre register but have the 3 qualifying brevets would now be allowed to register. 4 years ago, this was not a large number, as people did not anticipate many slots becoming available. Now with the knowledge that all is not lost there may be more optimists riding their brevets.

Assuming all spaces are not taken up by the time anyone that lost their pre registration gets to 3 BRMs they would then have a chance to register.

Indeed but I have postulated previously that we have reached “peak brevet”

There are still (as at a few minutes ago) 70 84h bicycle places available plus 4 90h specials & 73 84h specials. The specials have not moved for weeks and the bicycle places decline by only a few each day. Also there has been no 2022 qualifier requirement since 25 March so anyone with half an inclination will have pre-registered I would have thought?

Given the June deadline in 2019 caused a 1500 dropout from 7600 pre-registered there is a good chance the 10 June dropout will be larger from the approximately 8500 pre-registered this time especially as it includes many with no 2022 BRM ride.

So I reckon there is a good chance of there being still  places available into late June with a worst case of them being 84h as many 84h pre-registrations will move to available 90h places and the very worst case being you will have to take a “special” place and buy a bent or argue that you or your bike are otherwise special.

Given the numbers now I will be very surprised if anywhere near 8000 start, likely low 7000s perhaps. Quite a bit sorry I don’t think I will be there.

PS I notice the “Pre-Register” button has gone from the screen with the available numbers per time limit?

Les préinscriptions sont clôturées (Pre-registrations are closed)
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: czarop on 25 May, 2023, 11:13:09 am
on the 3rd of June there are 600s in Alfreton, Carlisle and Stevenage sill taking entries

Unlikely to return BRM numbers by June 10th though?
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: quixoticgeek on 25 May, 2023, 11:28:09 am
on the 3rd of June there are 600s in Alfreton, Carlisle and Stevenage sill taking entries

Unlikely to return BRM numbers by June 10th though?

We're usually pretty quick on the Amsterdam one. Dunno what auk adds as an overhead.

J
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Frank9755 on 25 May, 2023, 11:31:26 am
Mine have been within that timescale this year, just a couple of days after the event.
It does depend on the organiser but I expect they will have that deadline in mind.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Lightning Phil on 25 May, 2023, 11:36:18 am
on the 3rd of June there are 600s in Alfreton, Carlisle and Stevenage sill taking entries

Unlikely to return BRM numbers by June 10th though?

I am the organiser of one of those 600s, and provided I complete my post event admin quickly, and get the cards off as quick as possible; they will be processed and brevet numbers allocated in the evening during the week leading up to Sat 10th. I know this, as I asked, as for some riders on my 600, it will be their third qualifying brevet. I usually try and do as much admin as I can whilst at the finish, then complete it on the Monday after the event, thus cards will be off to audax UK central on Mon 5th June.

Thus the numbers should be available online to commence PBP registration , but the cards coming back will not be so rapid.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 27 May, 2023, 11:33:22 pm
More places available now including 150 90h , all start times, but only if you have at least 3 qualifiers and can register
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: iroiromono on 28 May, 2023, 12:31:09 am
A bit confused. Completed registration yesterday at noon and paid payment. Then last night got email saying entry had been cancelled as payment not received within 3 days. Anyone else experiencing this?

Votre inscription PBP-***** vient d'être passée à l'état: Cancelled
Raison: Non payé depuis plus de 3 jours
Amount remaining to be paid: 192€
Etat à 23:55
Si vous avez déjà payé, cela peut prendre un peu de temps pour se mettre à jour
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Graeme on 28 May, 2023, 07:13:00 am
I just got the same thing

Logging on, my registration is completely gone.
 :o
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 28 May, 2023, 07:22:56 am
Their system seems to be having “issues”, in the last half hour available places went from 30 80h,99 90h,169 84h to 0, 6, 145 and just now it seems to be off line
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Graeme on 28 May, 2023, 07:38:36 am
I'm not sure who to contact. My whole registration is missing. Hopefully a computer issue that'll be able to be reversed... but if I need to contact someone I don't know who to write to.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 28 May, 2023, 07:56:18 am
I'm not sure who to contact. My whole registration is missing. Hopefully a computer issue that'll be able to be reversed... but if I need to contact someone I don't know who to write to.

Two months ago I had a question about my pre-registration and got a rapid and helpful reply from inscription@paris-brest-paris.org but I would give them an hour or three to sort out their problem, worst case is everything is trashed and everyone who turns up in August can ride  :)  :)  :)  ;)
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: The Bonk on 28 May, 2023, 07:56:39 am
I registered and got a confirmation email to say I'd paid. But my registration on the site is now missing, too.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: marcusjb on 28 May, 2023, 08:15:09 am
The entirety of PBP is missing from the ACP registration page now!

I am sure it will sort out.

Or they've got our money and done a runner!
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: zacklaws on 28 May, 2023, 11:52:49 am
Maybe they have a similar "Glitch" they had back in January when preregistrations for the "1000 K" riders started preregistering in the first few hours, they went off line and had sorted the problem out a short while later.

The site was working OK at 07:15 this morning though as I was on it.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Dai P on 28 May, 2023, 01:14:43 pm
I can log on and enter my three quals etc but where do you save it and how do you pay?  If I leave registration and go to payment enter my entry number it says I’ve paid, but that’s just the 50€. There does not seem to be anyway to save my details in registration or am I missing something…… which is very possible.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Tom on 28 May, 2023, 01:49:32 pm
Seems to be working for me, right up to the point where I pay. I'm a bit loathe to finish it off because a) I'm worried the aforementioned glitches will somehow lose my payment and b) I've still got to do a 400 on June 7th (tempting fate etc). So I think I'll leave it for a bit.

On a separate note, does anyone know much about the 18 euro Sunday night dorm accommodation offered on the entry form? I'm tempted, as I have a Monday 5.45am start, but only if the accom is reasonably close to the start.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Zed43 on 28 May, 2023, 02:03:07 pm
I submitted the form and paid at 13:00 (London time), no problems and got email confirmation of the payment.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Dai P on 28 May, 2023, 02:23:39 pm
Ah ha, all good.  Seems to be working now.  Paid and received confirmation email.  Now just the A&S to complete, arrange how to get there and back, keep fit until August……… and enjoy.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Graeme on 28 May, 2023, 04:52:10 pm
Glitch over. My records have come back, along with a history that shows it was cancelled. Brilliant. Happy to be back.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Tom on 08 June, 2023, 10:56:56 pm
It turns out the odds are pretty favourable.  I finished my final qualifier yesterday and am now a fully paid up aspirant. Thanks for all your tips and encouragement and for making this officially the longest thread I've ever started on the internet. I fear I may have peaked.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ajax Bay on 10 June, 2023, 09:10:38 am
This morning:
"We are pleased to inform you that more than 6000 people have transformed their pre-registration into registration. [Soon] the slots reserved during pre-registration will be released for all those who have not started their registration. If this is your case and you still want to enter PBP, there is still time to start your registration on https://myaccount.audax-club-parisien.com. On [10 Jun at 1100 BST], the slots will be freed up to allow those who wish to change their departure time and those in line to obtain a place."
After fails at Mark's Summer Outing 600 and Ian's Back to the Smoke regret mine will be one of the slots 'freed up' on 10 Jun.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 10 June, 2023, 09:53:21 am
This morning:
"….. more than 6000 people have transformed their pre-registration into registration……”

It’s been hard to follow at times with places added at various points and places moved between start groups / time limits and no update summaries published for a month or more but I put the total pre-registered at around 8400 / 8500. We will see in an hour or so how many places available after the no registration started ones are released, currently 56 places in 84h only including 27 bicycle and 29 specials
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Fernando on 10 June, 2023, 11:56:59 am
Where did you see that slots will be released at 10 Jun at 1100 BST? Its already 1155, and nothing has changed!
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Genosse Brymbo on 10 June, 2023, 12:05:17 pm
Where did you see that slots will be released at 10 Jun at 1100 BST? Its already 1155, and nothing has changed!
I received an email from no-reply@audax-club-parisien.com on 11 May after I'd pre-registered saying:

Vous êtes nombreux à vouloir changer votre heure de départ. Cela sera possible pendant les inscriptions et tout particulièrement à partir du 10 juin où les créneaux non transformés en inscription seront libérés. Soyez donc prêt à saisir cette occasion le 10 juin à midi (heure de Paris)!

This was translated into English as:

Many of you want to change your departure time. This will be possible during registrations and especially starting on June 10th when slots not used for registration will be released. So be ready to seize this opportunity on June 10 noon (Paris time)!

The only correspondence I've received since that email message was from inscription@paris-brest-paris.org, which said "Votre inscription PBP-16079 vient d'être passée à l'état: Payment received", after I'd converted my pre-registration into a registration and paid.  I left the tickbox labelled "My departure time suits me and I no longer wish to changed it" unchecked.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Fernando on 10 June, 2023, 12:11:51 pm
Where did you see that slots will be released at 10 Jun at 1100 BST? Its already 1155, and nothing has changed!
I received an email from no-reply@audax-club-parisien.com on 11 May after I'd pre-registered saying:

Vous êtes nombreux à vouloir changer votre heure de départ. Cela sera possible pendant les inscriptions et tout particulièrement à partir du 10 juin où les créneaux non transformés en inscription seront libérés. Soyez donc prêt à saisir cette occasion le 10 juin à midi (heure de Paris)!

This was translated into English as:

Many of you want to change your departure time. This will be possible during registrations and especially starting on June 10th when slots not used for registration will be released. So be ready to seize this opportunity on June 10 noon (Paris time)!

The only correspondence I've received since that email message was from inscription@paris-brest-paris.org, which said "Votre inscription PBP-16079 vient d'être passée à l'état: Payment received", after I'd converted my pre-registration into a registration and paid.  I left the tickbox labelled "My departure time suits me and I no longer wish to changed it" unchecked.
Thank you, Genosse! I'll keep waiting...
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 10 June, 2023, 12:16:43 pm
Where did you see that slots will be released at 10 Jun at 1100 BST? Its already 1155, and nothing has changed!

There was an email from ACP (inscription) 12 hours ago partly quoted by Ajax Bay a few posts above and the same info is in the "Rules" on the PBP site. I guess we have become accustomed to instant gratification and expected something at 1100 (noon Paris) but all that happened was the 84h available went from 54 (bicycle 27/special 29) to 9 (all special, 80h & 90h unchanged at 0 and hasn't moved since. I guess they take time to identify and release the places of people who have not initiated their registration.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: StevieB on 10 June, 2023, 12:29:15 pm
Where did you see that slots will be released at 10 Jun at 1100 BST? Its already 1155, and nothing has changed!

There was an email from ACP (inscription) 12 hours ago partly quoted by Ajax Bay a few posts above and the same info is in the "Rules" on the PBP site. I guess we have become accustomed to instant gratification and expected something at 1100 (noon Paris) but all that happened was the 84h available went from 54 (bicycle 27/special 29) to 9 (all special, 80h & 90h unchanged at 0 and hasn't moved since. I guess they take time to identify and release the places of people who have not initiated their registration.

or they noticed it's lunchtime!  ::-)
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Fernando on 10 June, 2023, 12:41:31 pm
or they noticed it's lunchtime!  ::-)
Probably!  ;D
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Genosse Brymbo on 10 June, 2023, 02:12:17 pm
Go now!  I just bagged a 17:30 - G slot
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Fernando on 10 June, 2023, 02:21:52 pm
Go now!  I just bagged a 17:30 - G slot
Done!! I've choosen 18:00 - I slot!!  ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
Thank you, guys!
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 11 June, 2023, 01:58:19 am
Sometime around 3pm Paris time 10/06, (+/-30m I might have missed exact time) site came back with the non registration initiated reserved times released. Approximately 1,350 places available (150 80h, 920 90h, 280 84h), the number available may be more or less than those actually released.

Over the next 12 hours there has been a lot of net swapping to 80h (surprisingly a lot) and 90h, not so much to 84h and there has been a bit of new registrations too.

Currently 1,077 available (16 80h, 760 90h, 301 84h), includes 34 Group F (90h) & 9 Group W (84h) Specials

PS available earlier 90h places are filling first so places in Groups P to U still available
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 29 June, 2023, 07:49:22 am
In the last week I noticed a couple of people saying they were "qualified" but still of two minds whether to actually register and were delaying "pulling the trigger" as there were plenty of places.

The PBP organisers must have read some "on-line marketing for dummies" book as  they have been withdrawing available places over the last two weeks about 600 have gone in 100/200 lots often around midnight, trying to foster a "better get in quick" panic or maybe anticipating a big cancellation rush in the next few days?

At about 0800 (Paris) this morning another 120 90h & 40 84h places disappeared taking the available down to about 100 each and 16 80h

So I don't want to spread alarm but just saying if you are still undecided then keep an eye on the available places
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Wycombewheeler on 29 June, 2023, 08:42:54 am
how do you know they were removed and not taken by people finally pulling the trigger?

Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: grams on 29 June, 2023, 09:20:20 am
100 people didn't sign up overnight.

You can see more data by looking at the source code. The final 3 90 hours waves have been cut to 250, 190 and 190 places each. All the earlier ones are 300 or 350.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Flâneur on 29 June, 2023, 10:31:44 am
Once validated, is there any way of changing one's sign-on/document pick-up time other than emailing Inscriptions and throwing oneself on their mercy?
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Wycombewheeler on 29 June, 2023, 10:41:42 am
Once validated, is there any way of changing one's sign-on/document pick-up time other than emailing Inscriptions and throwing oneself on their mercy?
I doubt anyone will turn you away if you turn up outside your official time slot.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Flâneur on 29 June, 2023, 10:44:25 am
I doubt anyone will turn you away if you turn up outside your official time slot.

Hopefully, but I inadvertently selected the right time on the wrong day (Friday instead of Saturday  ::-) ) so I'd quite like to fix it officially if I can

Failing that, I can play dumb (or 'act French' as the climbing community would have it)
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Wycombewheeler on 30 June, 2023, 11:35:17 am
I doubt anyone will turn you away if you turn up outside your official time slot.

Hopefully, but I inadvertently selected the right time on the wrong day (Friday instead of Saturday  ::-) ) so I'd quite like to fix it officially if I can

Failing that, I can play dumb (or 'act French' as the climbing community would have it)
more likely to be a problem, definitely email them. As they may or may not automatically put anything not collected on Friday out for Saturday. They might assume you are not coming at all.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: madcow on 30 June, 2023, 06:39:43 pm
My impression was that all the dossiers were delivered to the start and it was then up to the volunteers to respond as riders appeared at the collection point. The times for collection were really to spread the load.
I dont think that they would bin them on Friday just because someone hadn't turned up.
It's  well organised but fairly relaxed . 
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Lightning Phil on 30 June, 2023, 06:55:26 pm
Just go back in and change your collection time
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: frillipippi on 30 June, 2023, 06:59:39 pm
Just go back in and change your collection time
Once ACP validates your subscription, you can't change anything anymore
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: John Stonebridge on 03 July, 2023, 09:55:18 am
Eventually got my finger out last week and limbo danced under the closing door to secure a 90hr 2030 spot. 

Mrs S is planning to head out to the finish on the Thursday so Im under orders not to finish in anything less than 88 hours.  I sure her wishes can be accommodated. 
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Wycombewheeler on 03 July, 2023, 10:48:30 am
Eventually got my finger out last week and limbo danced under the closing door to secure a 90hr 2030 spot. 

Mrs S is planning to head out to the finish on the Thursday so Im under orders not to finish in anything less than 88 hours.  I sure her wishes can be accommodated.
there are a few cafes and bars close to the course in Rambouillet, just kill some time there if you are early before cruising nice and refreshed to the finish
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LateStarter on 15 July, 2023, 01:15:13 am
I haven't been paying attention for the last week and I don't think this has been mentioned here but ACP have published (French only) the final PBP 2023 fully registered rider numbers (as at close of registrations)

https://www.paris-brest-paris.org/qui-sont-les-6810-inscrits-a-paris-brest-paris-2023/

Despite the 8000 places "available" the headline final registration is (only?) 6,810, up 136 compared to 6,674 in 2019. French up by 400 (exactly) with 1,973 (1,573* in 2019), most other countries (except Germany) down marginally (UK down 8 to 554)

So looks like we are still on the fence with regard to "peak brevet" but with more work to do?

(*The 1217 figure quoted in the article for French in 2019 is not correct, it might relate to FFCT members?)
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Von Broad on 15 July, 2023, 12:12:42 pm
https://www.paris-brest-paris.org/qui-sont-les-6810-inscrits-a-paris-brest-paris-2023/

Be nice to have a bit more detail[shame about the truncated nationality chart?], is there a full breakdown available?
71 Nationalities. The Japanese putting in a good show! Hardly a stones throw away for them is it? [As is the case for many countries!].

And 5 octogenarians having a go. The fact they've qualified is impressive. Be interesting to see how they get on.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: LittleWheelsandBig on 15 July, 2023, 05:13:54 pm
Only one 80 year old has ever finished PBP though several have started.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Von Broad on 02 September, 2023, 11:10:36 pm
And 5 octogenarians having a go. The fact they've qualified is impressive. Be interesting to see how they get on.

Do we know how they fared?
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Ivo on 03 September, 2023, 04:41:43 am
And 5 octogenarians having a go. The fact they've qualified is impressive. Be interesting to see how they get on.

Do we know how they fared?

Drop out stats as published in the French forum (on the basis of the preliminary results):

By gender

Genre    Inscrits   Partants   OK   Tx d'échec
Féminin   494   469   312   33%
Masculin   6318   5954   4546   24%
Neutre   8   6   3   50%
Total   6820   6429   4861   24%

By startgroup

Délai   Inscrits   Partants   OK   Tx d'échec
80   1306   1238   1035   16%
84   956   888   683   23%
90   4558   4303   3143   27%
Total   6820   6429   4861   24%

By age

Âge   Inscrits   Partants   OK   Tx d’échec
[17;20]   12   10   6   40%
[21;25]   50   48   41   15%
[26;30]   207   199   164   18%
[31;35]   401   374   327   13%
[36;40]   650   596   489   18%
[41;45]   843   793   629   21%
[46;50]   1072   1010   789   22%
[51;55]   1179   1123   877   22%
[56;60]   1055   999   727   27%
[61;65]   819   777   528   32%
[66;70]   393   370   233   37%
[71;75]   118   112   45   60%
[76;80]   17   15   6   60%
[81;85]   4   3   0   100%
Total   6820   6429   4861   24%
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: Von Broad on 03 September, 2023, 10:15:26 am
Drop out stats as published in the French forum (on the basis of the preliminary results):

Thanks Ivo.
Moving gradually towards the outer regions of age, I'm forever fascinated how the whole thing just falls off a cliff after 75, and how challenging it must be, both psychologically and physically, to kick against that inevitable decline.
I made a joke to Mel Kirkland if he's quietly got his eye on being a select member of that last category - it wouldn't surprise me if he could do it either.
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: klem on 03 September, 2023, 08:46:59 pm
Trackers are not infallible. Mine failed to record in both 2019 and 2023. I rode with Peter Ruffhead who wasn't feeling great. We were well behind schedule at Brest where he packed. I carried on but 35*C heat got to me and with vision issues I bailed at Tinteneac. Disappointing end to my 8th consecutive PBP. And after being out of time on my 7th LEL last year I'm unlikely to be entering either again.
Mel
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: the straggler on 04 September, 2023, 12:08:02 am
Mel, if you can still achieve an SR in the next 2-3 seasons, you still have every chance to succeed again in next LEL and PBP. Let time heal and have another rethink and then decide.

Look forward to see you on another SR campaign next season.....



Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: tomj on 04 September, 2023, 11:53:28 am
Mel, you are an inspiration to many of us, reflect on the experience and keep turning those pedals!
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: mzjo on 04 September, 2023, 12:50:43 pm
And 5 octogenarians having a go. The fact they've qualified is impressive. Be interesting to see how they get on.

Do we know how they fared?

Drop out stats as published in the French forum (on the basis of the preliminary results):

By gender

Genre    Inscrits   Partants   OK   Tx d'échec
Féminin   494   469   312   33%
Masculin   6318   5954   4546   24%
Neutre   8   6   3   50%
Total   6820   6429   4861   24%

By startgroup

Délai   Inscrits   Partants   OK   Tx d'échec
80   1306   1238   1035   16%
84   956   888   683   23%
90   4558   4303   3143   27%
Total   6820   6429   4861   24%

By age

Âge   Inscrits   Partants   OK   Tx d’échec
[17;20]   12   10   6   40%
[21;25]   50   48   41   15%
[26;30]   207   199   164   18%
[31;35]   401   374   327   13%
[36;40]   650   596   489   18%
[41;45]   843   793   629   21%
[46;50]   1072   1010   789   22%
[51;55]   1179   1123   877   22%
[56;60]   1055   999   727   27%
[61;65]   819   777   528   32%
[66;70]   393   370   233   37%
[71;75]   118   112   45   60%
[76;80]   17   15   6   60%
[81;85]   4   3   0   100%
Total   6820   6429   4861   24%

I wish I hadn't seen that! I'll be 70 for the next one, it could be a stupid challenge trying to do my first PBP as a 70th birthday present!
OTOH the roads are too straight, I don't like crowds and pelotons and Mme would undoubtedly enforce the ban on night-riding (and I am not looking for a divorce!). Phew, saved!!
Title: Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
Post by: thing1 on 04 September, 2023, 10:28:17 pm
Trackers are not infallible. Mine failed to record in both 2019 and 2023. I rode with Peter Ruffhead who wasn't feeling great. We were well behind schedule at Brest where he packed. I carried on but 35*C heat got to me and with vision issues I bailed at Tinteneac. Disappointing end to my 8th consecutive PBP. And after being out of time on my 7th LEL last year I'm unlikely to be entering either again.
Mel

Sorry to have missed you Mel, but great to hear from you and we enjoyed your cameo in Amy Hudson's video part 1  😁