Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?

[Flâneur]

Given this apparent change in deadline for initiating registration, and the general lag in ACP homologation, it might make relying on late May/early June qualifiers somewhat risky?

What is this "general lag in ACP homologations"? Do you know something others don't - at least as far as UK is concerned? Audax UK make strenuous efforts to get results turned from provisional to 'with homologations' swiftly and, so far in 2023 this has been achieved (as it was with a flourish in 2019). Full entry set at €190. https://www.paris-brest-paris.org/en/rules/

I don't think it's controversial to suggest it takes longer for a BRM to be validated (up to and including communication of ACP homologation number) than a BR? For instance, as it stands today I have no idea what the homologation number of a BRM I did on 4th March is, and that's not a knock on the organiser, AUK or ACP, who I'm sure are all moving as quickly as possible. But equally, on a similar timetable later in the year, I could not rely on being able to use a BRM completed on 1st June to satisfy this updated "3 completed qualifiiers on the registration by 10th June" condition as it would require knowing the homologation number of the ride.

Edited to add:
The AUK BRM qualifying windows (below) appeared to take cognisance of the ACP cutoffs. So 400 qualifiers ceasing 10 days (to allow time for homologation?) before the ACP's previous registration commencement deadline of the 20th, and similarly 600 qualifiers to be completed by weekend of 24th June, a week before ACP registration final deadline of 2nd July. The ACP move appears to break the first of those, somewhat.

200k: Sat 7 Jan - Sun 30 Apr
300k: Sat 11 Mar - Sun 21 May
400k: Sun 9 Apr - Sat 10 Jun
600k: Sat 6 May - Sat 24 June

[Wycombewheeler]

I don't think it's controversial to suggest it takes longer for a BRM to be validated (up to and including communication of ACP homologation number) than a BR? For instance, as it stands today I have no idea what the homologation number of a BRM I did on 4th March is, and that's not a knock on the organiser, AUK or ACP, who I'm sure are all moving as quickly as possible. But equally, on a similar timetable later in the year, I could not rely on being able to use a BRM completed on 1st June to satisfy this updated "3 completed qualifiiers on the registration by 10th June" condition as it would require knowing the homologation number of the ride.

Edited to add:
The AUK BRM qualifying windows (below) appeared to take cognisance of the ACP cutoffs. So 400 qualifiers ceasing 10 days (to allow time for homologation?) before the ACP's previous registration commencement deadline of the 20th, and similarly 600 qualifiers to be completed by weekend of 24th June, a week before ACP registration final deadline of 2nd July. The ACP move appears to break the first of those, somewhat.

200k: Sat 7 Jan - Sun 30 Apr
300k: Sat 11 Mar - Sun 21 May
400k: Sun 9 Apr - Sat 10 Jun
600k: Sat 6 May - Sat 24 June

I think it takes about 10 days to get homogulation numbers back, based on my experience this season. Obviously longer for any events with postal finishes.

So I agree it would be unwise to be relying on a ride ridden after 1st of June as one of the first three rides to complete the registration process.

[Ajax Bay]

Given this apparent change in deadline for initiating registration, and the general lag in ACP homologation, it might make relying on late May/early June qualifiers somewhat risky?

What is this "general lag in ACP homologations"? Do you know something others don't - at least as far as UK is concerned? Audax UK make strenuous efforts to get results turned from provisional to 'with homologations' swiftly and, so far in 2023 this has been achieved (as it was with a flourish in 2019). Full entry set at €190. https://www.paris-brest-paris.org/en/rules/

Edited to add:
The AUK BRM qualifying windows (below) appeared to take cognisance of the ACP cutoffs. So 400 qualifiers ceasing 10 days (to allow time for homologation?) before the ACP's previous registration commencement deadline of the 20th, and similarly 600 qualifiers to be completed by weekend of 24th June, a week before ACP registration final deadline of 2nd July. The ACP move appears to break the first of those, somewhat.

200k: Sat 7 Jan - Sun 30 Apr
300k: Sat 11 Mar - Sun 21 May
400k: Sun 9 Apr - Sat 10 Jun
600k: Sat 6 May - Sat 24 June

Agree - if you're going for registration in June ab initio, have at least 3 done by end May. I know AudaxUK digs out blind to gat those last minute 600s homologated. Perhaps that laser focus might be applied to 400s in late May.
I can see all those 400s on 3 Jun being suddenly a lot less attractive, and A&S will be of PBP qualifying use only for those with a 600 already 'in the bag'.

[Ivo]

It's certainly possible to add BRM's after september. I know from experience.

Please keep in mind all that not only UK based riders are following, reading and commenting in this thread. Practices and habits do differ in many countries. We can certainly compare and see where it's going good and where it's going less good. We can identify issues, to learn from.
The huge difference in riders having 600+ events between France and abroad points towards an issue, an issue we can discuss here.
Riders going a long way across borders to find events is a signal. If these signals are neglected, the underlying problems aren't addressed. So critical comments are needed to improve audaxing in general (and not only AUK audaxing).

[mzjo]

The ACP got a lot of stick from French club officials due to the declining number of French riders. So they want to do everything to keep the French numbers up. Mind you, most of the controls are run by local clubs so the support of French club officials is very crucial for the running of PBP.
So yes, the date of 25th of march will be, in reality, only interesting for French riders not having a BRM 200 yet.
That the root cause of the 'French issue' is that hardly any French club organise BRM's in non-PBP years, that's an entirely different debate. But not organising your event as BRM because it's more pratical to you, as a former organiser, I do have my doubts if you're doing a good service to your riders then. It's important to have a good offer of BRM's in each country where there are PBP hopefuls, especially the PBP year and the year before.

The problem is structural and demographic within the FFCT/FFVélo. PBP is part of our "patrimoine" (roughly translates as "inheritance"!) on which the FFCT claims ownership of the IP. But while clubs are keen enough to get a bit of kudos for being involved in the organisation (a matter of local politics) they don't actually have many riders still young enough or enthusiastic enough (at least in the France Profonde outside the big urban areas) to mount a decent participation. Result not much interest in riding BRMs (except perhaps 200s). Attracting young and enthusiastic riders is not easy once the average age goes over 70! (Witness my own club, rapidly becoming a club du Troisième Age rather than cyclotourisme). On this front my friends in UFOLEP clubs tell me that they are in a similar situation. With all that happening (or not happening perhaps) it is hardly surprising that clubs look for whatever leverage they can to try to present PBP as an outstanding french event when the truth may be more international but less patriotic. It's a bit like shouting "Cocorico!" when a french rider goes to the front of a TdF stage when we know full well that the eventual winner will be spanish or italian - or east european!
I think that 20 would be a good field for our local BRMs, less outside PBP years!

[LateStarter]

Quicker turnaround for BRM numbers is certainly possible, it is certainly automated at the ACP end, best I have seen is 3 hours and that was because we (including organiser) went to dinner after the ride rather than immediately processing the brevets, slackers.

[Ivo]

It'll be very interesting to see what happens with the various French clubs who banded together to offer a BRM series starting in 'the province' and finishing in Paris. If this is a success (I definitely hope so), it could be the start of more BRM events in France, starting outside the classic BRM strongholds. The organisers are also using Social Media to plug this series. A very good experiment, worthy of a good result.
In Italy (or better said, an italian organiser), started several years ago a special 600, from Munich to Ferrara. Now he easily attracts 250 riders for a 600. Thinking outside of the box can pay off.

[Lightning Phil]

I try and cover the finish for the times we expect riders to finish in. We let them know in advance these times.  A few fast riders may arrive before we man it. But most of the time we manage to collect everyone’s card at the finish.  I then try and process all the cards within a day before sending them off to the validators.  Then the biggest delay is often postal.  The homologation numbers do appear in the online results before the entrants cards come back to me, as organiser.

The third (400) event in my offered SR series runs mid May and I’d expect the homologation to be completed in plenty of time for the June 10th deadline.

[Wycombewheeler]

It'll be very interesting to see what happens with the various French clubs who banded together to offer a BRM series starting in 'the province' and finishing in Paris...
In Italy (or better said, an italian organiser), started several years ago a special 600, from Munich to Ferrara. Now he easily attracts 250 riders for a 600. Thinking outside of the box can pay off.

I've seen various organisations doing a "hell week" of an SR series in a week. I'd love to see an ISR series in a week, whether this would be a popular enough to get clubs of neighbouring countries to organise the events, possibly with bag drops between them, is another question.

[BerlinMatt]

The ARA Dresden are doing something like that this year.
https://www.ara-dresden.de/brevetwoche
Cutting it a bit fine for using as a pbp qualification but sounds like fun.

[Dai P]

This is all a bit of a bugger.  A & S booked for 10 June, no way will that be validated on the same day to use in registration!  Changing plans is going to involve a lot of negotiation! Family commitments etc. if only they would stick to the original timetable.  Still, will have to find a way, not going to miss it!

[Wycombewheeler]

This is all a bit of a bugger.  A & S booked for 10 June, no way will that be validated on the same day to use in registration!  Changing plans is going to involve a lot of negotiation! Family commitments etc. if only they would stick to the original timetable.  Still, will have to find a way, not going to miss it!

there are a number of 600s before that, which will allow you to use A&S as the 4th qualifier, after you have completed registration.

shifty 600
Benjamin Allens summer outing
BCM
fenland friends
Gospel Pass

[grecko]

Numbers suggest that ACP have already done a little bit of overbooking (over-offering, to be precise): last Saturday, just before opening pre-reg to 200ers, the total number of available places raised of about three hundred from 7,800 to 8,100. It might also be that they just cleaned up their database from uncompleted pre-registrations or something similar, but considering what people with inner knowledge wrote in this thread about 2019, it seems to me that they're going with a little bit of over-offering, at the moment, to avoid the frantic (for them) re-opening in June.

The total number of places as of now is 8300.
Only 3 available in the non-special 90h groups, 71 for 80h and 784 for 84h.

[Tomsk]

This is all a bit of a bugger.  A & S booked for 10 June, no way will that be validated on the same day to use in registration!  Changing plans is going to involve a lot of negotiation! Family commitments etc. if only they would stick to the original timetable.  Still, will have to find a way, not going to miss it!

there are a number of 600s before that, which will allow you to use A&S as the 4th qualifier, after you have completed registration.

shifty 600
Benjamin Allens summer outing
BCM
fenland friends
Gospel Pass

No plans to cap entry number for Fenland Friends. (Or any of our ACME qualifiers.)

[Ivo]

It'll be very interesting to see what happens with the various French clubs who banded together to offer a BRM series starting in 'the province' and finishing in Paris...
In Italy (or better said, an italian organiser), started several years ago a special 600, from Munich to Ferrara. Now he easily attracts 250 riders for a 600. Thinking outside of the box can pay off.

I've seen various organisations doing a "hell week" of an SR series in a week. I'd love to see an ISR series in a week, whether this would be a popular enough to get clubs of neighbouring countries to organise the events, possibly with bag drops between them, is another question.

You, and a few others, have PM

[iomadh]

No plans to cap entry number for Fenland Friends. (Or any of our ACME qualifiers.)

Good to know if my planned 400 (Border Nights) goes wrong for some reason (last year I got covid).
I'd thought I'd have the 600 on the 3rd June as backup but that now seems like it is too late to consider
There are precious few 400s in Scotland

Aside: 1073m assent on a 600?    that is less than half the elevation of the 200 I'm doing this weekend

Paul

[grams]

Normal 90 hours places are now all filled.

Some of the start waves are smaller than others, so I wouldn’t be shocked if they release more on the 25th, plus lots of musical chairs come June.

[LateStarter]

Normal 90 hours places are now all filled.

Some of the start waves are smaller than others, so I wouldn’t be shocked if they release more on the 25th, plus lots of musical chairs come June.

There will be a lot of whinging on Saturday from French non-FFCT riders with a 200 longest brevet if there aren’t some 90h places and even more on 25 March for the no BRMs. With a total of only 8300 places in the system currently and almost 900 largely unloved 84h places available, (including group V 84h specials with 17 places taken of 120 limit), there is plenty of scope to push the total places above 9000 and swinging a lot of 84h places into 90h. The no BRM might be high on enthusiasm but the SR completion rate might be lower than previous waves. It’s a long way off but 2027 might have to look at (return to?)  a LEL start approach throughout the day & night

The “non-French” are within 100 of their nominal 5500 limit but I assume ACP might be somewhat relaxed about this allowing for 10-20% non completion of SRs and other non conversion of final registration causes. 2019 had 7600 pre-reg when it filled on 10 April but 1500 did not convert from pre-reg to registration, 1000 places were added in June but then another 450 dropped out between close of registrations (early July) and PBP start

[Wycombewheeler]

Aside: 1073m assent on a 600?    that is less than half the elevation of the 200 I'm doing this weekend

Paul

Do NOT underestimate this ride, when the wind blows from the south (or north) crossing the fens can be purgatory. I'd rather face the climbing of the Bryan Chapman Memorial. In a group in a still day I'm sure it's very jolly, but 200km solo into a headwind with no shelter, no gradient change, no hedge to hide behind to have a pee is very tough mentally. Also I was barely gaining enough time between controls to stop at controls. So I hour before cut off when I left Lincoln, same leaving Boston, same leaving the next town.

[Wycombewheeler]

The ARA Dresden are doing something like that this year.
https://www.ara-dresden.de/brevetwoche
Cutting it a bit fine for using as a pbp qualification but sounds like fun.

looks awesome, if I had known about that 2 month ago, that might well have featured in my planning, as it stands I have leave from work committed for PBP, London, lands end London, and a ski trip, so another week for this looks out of the question.

While the grand tour concept is the same, it seems like all the events are organised by the same club, and the four brevets start in Germany, Czech Republic, Czech Republic and Slovakia, and so while it will visit various countries it will not also be an international super randonneur series.

And now while I should be sleeping I am thinking about Cycling, travel and a blurred line between touring and audax

[Paul D]

Aside: 1073m assent on a 600?    that is less than half the elevation of the 200 I'm doing this weekend

Paul

Do NOT underestimate this ride, when the wind blows from the south (or north) crossing the fens can be purgatory. I'd rather face the climbing of the Bryan Chapman Memorial. In a group in a still day I'm sure it's very jolly, but 200km solo into a headwind with no shelter, no gradient change, no hedge to hide behind to have a pee is very tough mentally. Also I was barely gaining enough time between controls to stop at controls. So I hour before cut off when I left Lincoln, same leaving Boston, same leaving the next town.

Agree about the wind, but if you are lucky with the weather this is the easiest 600 on the calendar if you like time trialling! In 2018 I caught a tailwind North, doing the first 300km in 12 hours, then the wind dropped a bit overnight, I had a snooze at Boston and finished before lunch in the sunshine on Sunday. The climbing is more like 2000-2500m but still very benign. But the scenery was shite. 

[Tomsk]

... But the scenery was shite. 

But but what about Goole's water tower (the biggest in Western Europe); Lincoln's catherdral and cobbles; the Venetian splendour of the New Bedford River, the South Forty Foot Drain and Bevill's Leam; and cabbages, you've got to love cabbages?! 

Good mental preparation for the, lets face it, not terribly inspiring scenery on most of PBP. I can think of many, many places in La Belle France that I'd rather go touring, but that's not the point of the exercise.

[felstedrider]

Aside: 1073m assent on a 600?    that is less than half the elevation of the 200 I'm doing this weekend

Paul

Do NOT underestimate this ride, when the wind blows from the south (or north) crossing the fens can be purgatory. I'd rather face the climbing of the Bryan Chapman Memorial. In a group in a still day I'm sure it's very jolly, but 200km solo into a headwind with no shelter, no gradient change, no hedge to hide behind to have a pee is very tough mentally. Also I was barely gaining enough time between controls to stop at controls. So I hour before cut off when I left Lincoln, same leaving Boston, same leaving the next town.

Agree about the wind, but if you are lucky with the weather this is the easiest 600 on the calendar if you like time trialling! In 2018 I caught a tailwind North, doing the first 300km in 12 hours, then the wind dropped a bit overnight, I had a snooze at Boston and finished before lunch in the sunshine on Sunday. The climbing is more like 2000-2500m but still very benign. But the scenery was shite. 

I've come to enjoy the Flatlands as it goes through a lot of my (original) home area.   Not doing it this year, though.

[Frank9755]

The ARA Dresden are doing something like that this year.
https://www.ara-dresden.de/brevetwoche
Cutting it a bit fine for using as a pbp qualification but sounds like fun.

That sounds excellent.  I would love to do that even though I don't need the qualifiers, but the dates don't work.  Great that it moves on rather than clover-leafing back to a central HQ each night. 

[Hot Flatus]

... But the scenery was shite. 

Good mental preparation for the, lets face it, not terribly inspiring scenery on most of PBP. I can think of many, many places in La Belle France that I'd rather go touring, but that's not the point of the exercise.

I find dull roads far more taxing than hills and far more likely to end a ride for me. Utterly soul destroying.  I second your comment regarding PBP route, although I didn't see beyond Fougères, and therefore only saw half of the route, but it was mind-numbingly tedious. Not sure, in all honesty, why I'm even contemplating entering.   

I'd say the same about the LEL route. If you tasked me with choosing the dullest way to get to Edinburgh, then I'd just send you a gpx of LEL.