Many 400s are ridden by folks doing an SR series that has to include a 600. Ditto most of the 1000s will have ridden an SR. Many will have ridden more than one 600/400. It's all speculation. So you're probably right but it may not be as bad as apparent. Also those with successively shorter rides last year are less likely to enter a 1200. My cup is 50.000001% full! But then I'm in
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Ah, OK. I guess there are two kinds of prospective entrant then. What you might call the old guard, who do the majority of their long distance rides as audaxes and ride an SR every year, and what you might call the newcomers, like myself, who generally do other kinds of long distance riding but included a BRM or two in their calendar last year just for PBP pre-registration. I suppose I was imagining there were more like me, but perhaps my kind are only a small percentage.
It's not that simple. There is a worldwide network of Audax-Randonee associations. All of them promote rides to the ACP formula. Paris-Brest Paris is essentially their Olympics, and PBP is the pinnacle of their sport. All the Brevets around the world are run by volunteers, they can't be commercial.
PBP itself is run by volunteers, with input from professional caterers. Those volunteers are mainly local. Participants pay for food on the way round, unlike LEL, where you've paid for the food beforehand.
The result is that if there are a lot of people dropping out along the way, there's a lot of unsold food and wastage. The same is true of LEL, but food's already been paid for, so it's a problem of waste, not of finance.
The qualification is to try to ensure that riders don't drop out. More people are capable of qualifying than there are places. So far PBP hasn't ever sold out, but the pre-qualification system seems the fairest way of dealing with that possibility, and prefers those riders around the world, who participate in ACP-sanctioned events.
ACP's loyalty should initially be to Audax organisations around the world, and they are growing fastest in Asia. I think they've got the formula right. It does make it more difficult than before for someone who has picked up on PBP from articles in magazines and online, and isn't working their way through the Audax system.
The system ensures that someone in Thailand, Alaska or New Zealand knows they have a place before they start their qualifiers, and can book tickets in advance. It's not designed for someone in the UK who fancies giving PBP a go, and doesn't need to plan very far ahead.