Author Topic: [HAMR] Visualizing the OYTT  (Read 170801 times)

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #450 on: April 25, 2015, 07:01:43 am »
Day 114: Miles and Kurt both put in long days with 228 and 225 miles respectively. Steve foregoes the bowl for a change, instead riding the roads of MK for 71 miles.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #451 on: April 26, 2015, 07:42:33 am »
Day 115: Kurt, chased by bad weather, heads to northern Mississippi for another 220 mile day. Steve avoids the Bowl and rides 64 miles of the roads around MK. Nothing uploaded for Miles yet, but the SPOT tracker suggests he headed north out of Melbourne.


Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #452 on: April 26, 2015, 12:19:03 pm »
Miles rode from Melbourne to Chiltern in NE Victoria today and is training it back to Melb (hopefully having reset the Garmin ;-).

Data will be uploaded in morning.

PeterM
Peter Mathews
Recumbenteer
Pres Audax Oz 2013
3 PBPs and a lot of other stuff

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #453 on: April 27, 2015, 06:10:20 am »
Day 116: Kurt rides the Natchez Trace again making this the fourth consecutive day of around 220 miles. Steve rides a shorter than usual 27 miles but with some good news about his plaster cast. He's now over 6,000 miles down on Tommy's WR pace, making a 2015 record unlikely but not completely out of bounds. Nothing yet posted from Miles for the last two days.


SoreTween

  • Most of me survived the Pennine Bridleway.
Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #454 on: April 27, 2015, 03:21:23 pm »
Nice edit  ;D
Worth pointing out that while Steve is indeed 6000 miles down on WR pace, Tommy Godwin was 4000 miles down on Tommy Godwin's WR pace at this point.
2019 targets: TINAT 160 rough
There is only one infinite resource in this universe; human stupidity.

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #455 on: April 27, 2015, 03:37:00 pm »
Indeed. I mentioned the 6000 miles figure because on FB, Steve himself posted

"I reckon that if I am 6000 miles down when I get back on the Raleigh and can get back onto the 82000 mile schedule I should just do it. I started this in January with 2 months of no cycling and went straight onto the 87000 mile schedule. I am not beaten yet".

That's still some way down the line, and to maintain a deficit of 6000 miles, he'd have to do around 205 miles per day on the trike.

But now the sun is out, the cast if off, anything's possible (and hence the edit  ;D)

hillbilly

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #456 on: April 27, 2015, 04:37:10 pm »

Oaky

  • ACME Fire Safety Officer
  • Audax Club Mid-Essex
    • MEMWNS Map
Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #457 on: April 27, 2015, 05:05:54 pm »


<cheap dig>Is the bottom one a SusTrans route?</cheap dig>
You are in a maze of twisty flat droves, all alike.

85.4 miles from Marsh Gibbon

Audax Club Mid-Essex Fire Safety Officer
http://acme.bike

mattc

  • n.b. have grown beard since photo taken
    • Didcot Audaxes
Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #458 on: April 27, 2015, 07:49:47 pm »
Indeed. I mentioned the 6000 miles figure because on FB, Steve himself posted

"I reckon that if I am 6000 miles down when I get back on the Raleigh and can get back onto the 82000 mile schedule I should just do it. I started this in January with 2 months of no cycling and went straight onto the 87000 mile schedule. I am not beaten yet".

That's still some way down the line, and to maintain a deficit of 6000 miles, he'd have to do around 205 miles per day on the trike.

But now the sun is out, the cast if off, anything's possible (and hence the edit  ;D)
Does anyone have a link to this?

(FB being FB,  i've seen the piccie of him without the cast, but not this quote  ::-)   )
Has never ridden RAAM
---------
No.11  Because of the great host of those who dislike the least appearance of "swank " when they travel the roads and lanes. - From Kuklos' 39 Articles

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #459 on: April 27, 2015, 07:56:05 pm »
Matt, I don't do FB either, but it's easy to find. Either google "Steve Abraham Facebook" or try https://www.facebook.com/stevenabraham2015

Then scroll down a couple of entries and you'll see it.   :-*

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #460 on: April 27, 2015, 09:48:21 pm »

simonp

  • Omnomnomnipotent.
Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #461 on: April 27, 2015, 10:34:01 pm »
Define 6000 miles down before making any conclusions.

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #462 on: April 28, 2015, 07:43:04 am »
Day 117: Kurt heads back to Little Rock for a 209 mile day. Steve, now without his plaster cast, flexes his right leg on the trike around the Bowl for 112 miles. Miles after travelling north is back to riding the bay. No log was uploaded for the 26th April which means he has some catching up to do to maintain his officially recorded pace close to Tommy's WR.


hillbilly

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #463 on: April 28, 2015, 07:54:43 am »
I'm impressed you disentangled the spaghetti of yesterday's rides. I found Strava confused and bitty.

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #464 on: April 28, 2015, 08:32:17 pm »
Indeed. I mentioned the 6000 miles figure because on FB, Steve himself posted

"I reckon that if I am 6000 miles down when I get back on the Raleigh and can get back onto the 82000 mile schedule I should just do it. I started this in January with 2 months of no cycling and went straight onto the 87000 mile schedule. I am not beaten yet".

That's still some way down the line, and to maintain a deficit of 6000 miles, he'd have to do around 205 miles per day on the trike.

But now the sun is out, the cast if off, anything's possible (and hence the edit  ;D)

I meant 6000 miles down on my 82000 mile schedule. 82000-6000=76000, so 1000 miles more than Tommy Godwin. And as I also said, I was closer to the 87000 mile schedule before my broken ankle.
I've done my sums and although it may not go exactly to the original plan I reckon it could work.


The trike seems to be helping with recovery. The doctor told me that I won't be able to put my weight on it until about the middle of May. I think I could do that now but won't try until I get the all clear. The only discomfort I feel seems to be because I need some physiotherapy, which is why I thiink I feel better for using the trike.

Halloween

  • It's party time....
Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #465 on: April 28, 2015, 08:43:00 pm »
Way to go TG, sir! I presume the team is looking at getting you some physio when the time is right?

LittleWheelsandBig

  • Whimsy Rider
Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #466 on: April 28, 2015, 08:48:37 pm »
I would hope that TG has been paying for physio for several weeks.
Wheel meet again, don't know where, don't know when...

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #467 on: April 30, 2015, 07:33:12 am »
Day 118: Miles continues his excursions up and down the bay for 200 miles. Kurt heads south from Little Rock to Louisiana for 197 miles. Steve, with an impressive dedication rides around the bowl for 101 miles.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #468 on: April 30, 2015, 08:09:26 am »
Day 119: Business as usual for all riders in the OYTT. 100 miles of MK Bowl, Port Phillip Bay and 220 miles of Louisiana to the Natchez Trace.


Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #469 on: April 30, 2015, 10:48:56 am »
Indeed. I mentioned the 6000 miles figure because on FB, Steve himself posted

"I reckon that if I am 6000 miles down when I get back on the Raleigh and can get back onto the 82000 mile schedule I should just do it. I started this in January with 2 months of no cycling and went straight onto the 87000 mile schedule. I am not beaten yet".

That's still some way down the line, and to maintain a deficit of 6000 miles, he'd have to do around 205 miles per day on the trike.

But now the sun is out, the cast if off, anything's possible (and hence the edit  ;D)

I meant 6000 miles down on my 82000 mile schedule. 82000-6000=76000, so 1000 miles more than Tommy Godwin. And as I also said, I was closer to the 87000 mile schedule before my broken ankle.
I've done my sums and although it may not go exactly to the original plan I reckon it could work.


The trike seems to be helping with recovery. The doctor told me that I won't be able to put my weight on it until about the middle of May. I think I could do that now but won't try until I get the all clear. The only discomfort I feel seems to be because I need some physiotherapy, which is why I thiink I feel better for using the trike.

You are just so inspirational Steve - there is no doubt that 99% of people would have gone 'meh, I'm giving up now' and yet you've gone 'NOT BEATEN YET'   ;D

Continued good luck wishes from me!  :thumbsup:
Does not play well with others

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #470 on: May 01, 2015, 07:26:15 am »
Day 120: Four months into the OYTT.


Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #471 on: May 01, 2015, 10:01:33 am »
jo

Could you plot a predicted curve for Steve getting to 76,000 in 365 days?  Just to see what the task in front of Steve now looks like, showing daily mileages used on the curve.
Tandem Riders Do It Together
188 miles NNE of Marsh Gibbon

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #472 on: May 01, 2015, 10:16:45 am »
That curve is implicit in the chart - just join the end of the red line to the triangular black arrow on the right hand side. The daily figure required to do so is

(75065 - total milage to date) / days left in year = 56977 miles in 245 days = 232.6 miles per day.

How Steve wishes or is able to spread that out over the rest of the year is up to him. If he were to publish a revised schedule (but I see no reason for him to do so), I would add it to the chart.

I will look to add that target daily rate to the numbers in the green section of the OYTT page (http://gicentre.org/oytt)

SoreTween

  • Most of me survived the Pennine Bridleway.
Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #473 on: May 01, 2015, 12:17:30 pm »
That curve is implicit in the chart - just join the end of the red line to the triangular black arrow on the right hand side. The daily figure required to do so is

(75065 - total milage to date) / days left in year = 56977 miles in 245 days = 232.6 miles per day.

How Steve wishes or is able to spread that out over the rest of the year is up to him. If he were to publish a revised schedule (but I see no reason for him to do so), I would add it to the chart.

I will look to add that target daily rate to the numbers in the green section of the OYTT page (http://gicentre.org/oytt)
Steve doesn't do X per day but Steve has mentioned getting back on his lower schedule after May to target 76000 for the year.  So would it be meaningful to move or duplicate Steve's target red band?  At Jan 1 his lower schedule would have achieved Godwin+7800 from the look of your plot, if you move the red band down so that the lower line ends at Godwin+1000 we can watch Steve's progress line tend towards, and hopefully not drop through, the revised red band.
2019 targets: TINAT 160 rough
There is only one infinite resource in this universe; human stupidity.

hillbilly

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #474 on: May 01, 2015, 04:21:55 pm »
If I read the chart correctly, if Steve were to move onto his optimistic line right now he would end up around 6,000 miles ahead of the record. 

Clearly he isn't going to up to those kind of mileages immediately, but it does give an idea of the buffer that he has to use up.  On another thread, I said Steve won't beat Tommy's mark in 2015.  Looking at jo's projections, it actually looks achievable.